Yeetmas 3 - Day 5 The party is emptying, but the drinks are still flowing!
 

Let’s just get right to it, don’t you think?

Professor Pepperwinkle was wrapped at Night. He was the Mall Santa Cop.

Bashorian Clement was also wrapped at Night. He was the Mariah Carey Doc.

Game state:

We have 5 Mall Santas, 1 Shelf Elf, and 1 Mariah Carey.

Our living players:

Askthepizzaguy
gnarlycharlie
Meeko
Mordenkainen
SilverJan
Suburban Plankton
Vanta Black

Only 1 Santa died at night, so just one wrapping. Should we pick up the pace a bit at this point? I think we should.

Let’s make this Day end on Monday, January 17, at 8:30 PM.

I am also going to say this: Night Action people, if you would like to put in your Night Actions in advance of Night, I will happily take them. We have no more scum discussion since we are 1 and 1 on those teams.

If “Night 5” powers would like to put their powers in early, I’ll queue them up for if you survive the day and then shorten Night down to a very short time.

OK, so what are you all gonna do?

Pfui!

Yeah, Pfui, indeed.

I think we know who took out PP and he's gone too.

But who else? WHO ELSE?

Oh yeah, I shot Bashorian, someone else could also have aimed at him.

But, hey, Silverjan didn't get NKed on her birthday, so yay!

Oh yeah, fine with picking up the pace. In fact I think on D4 I had WAY too long to think about things. Srry about that.

I have to say that I am very surprised to still be here but Yay!!!

Well done Vanta!

Sorry I couldn't protect both Vanta and Prof but I think I chose correctly again because now there are the 2 Godfathers left.

The relief on my face is palpable, you have no idea.

I am okay with shorter phases, I actually had enough time to solve the game out here.

I don't think I would benefit from more time.

I think I go with Mordenkainen here, because Mord is actually voting and actively playing.

Between the two, only one could actually win the game here, and it's him.

Donezo.

My guess is there was no workable alliance between the guilty factions in this scenario for whatever reason. Otherwise there would have been 2 deaths for sure.

Any scum death today creates a viable Day 6, because it necessarily reduces the murders by one, one of the factions is always eliminated.

Only 1 mall santa can be killed at night before Day 6, which means there is 4 townies alive on Day 6, which means that even when SP is inactive, town can still do a yeet on Day 6.

That's unexpectedly amazing.

Somehow, 28-3 just keeps on coming true.

Yeah, my outlandish guess for why there was only 1 scum kill N4 and total scum misses N3 is...

That the Elf GF is just gone.

Which points to gnarlycharlie who has not logged on since 7 Jan or (horrors!) Suburban Plankton who has not logged on since last year, 23 Dec.

I shot Bash, Bash shot PP and signaled it openly to the other team (thereby signing his death warrant, I was nearly changing my mind there again).

Either other team didn't pick it up because they were too late, or just not there.

Yeah, hard to believe.

I mean I am GRATEFUL.

That's unfortunate for the game itself, but probably correct.

I always maintain a thought that even when people are inactive, they can send in their orders through whatever scum chat system is in service, so they can visibly be not logged on, and still do their dirty deeds.

But when there is no shot, it's hard to do anything but suspect the inactive.

There isn't even an incentive to pin it on the inactive by deliberately not firing, you being protected tonight means you could theoretically shoot on Night 6 if the game ever got that far, which it will not.

Thankfully.

This game is essentially already over. You made the right shot and the scums didn't have the right stuff to keep up with town during Day.

Or night!

Thanks, Silverjan!

I did try to figure out how to signal you when BC called his shot, in the vain hope that you would have had time to switch your protection to PP. But without calling attention to the fact that I was doing that, and also without calling attention to BC's message in case the Elf team missed it. And I couldn't really figure out how to do that, subtlety not being one of my great assets.

But I guess the Elf team missed it anyway.

Your daily reminder that Meeko is just town.

he correctly said to yeet BC over Pleonast yesterday, correctly said to Vig BC, and has been calling me town all game.

Meeko is having a better game than I am, on par with Vanta at this point.

GOAT Meeko even if he's also a Raccoon.

Specifically Mordenkainen flip of Mariah Scum Godfather proves Meeko is town without doubt because Meeko in that position would have wanted an incorrect vig shot on a townie, not opposing scum. He would need the extra kill power. Also Elf Meeko would have responded favorably to BC's alliance offer and not just voted him to death, I think. Elf Meeko would have shot at Silverjan, he had no reason to fear the Prof's scan result since he was already scanned. The murders and votes do not match Meeko ever being anything but town, in addition to being the easiest cold read of town since Dizzy the first incarnation this game. As soon as Mord flips Mariah, you know BC was speaking to someone whose name is not Askthepizzaguy for Elf Shelf faction alliance. Pizza also would have shot Jan 2 nights ago, and Jan last night. That makes Pizza a really easy call. When you flip Mord and he is Mariah Godfather the game is just flatly over, since everyone called for Suburban Plankton to be vigged and I think members of both factions did that. Could the scums call for their own protected inactive godfather to be vigged? Sure. But would that protect them from scans? No. And anyone who wasnt the godfather was vulnerable to scan. It doesnt make sense to out the only protected member of your faction by scan or vig even if they were inactive. It only increases the odds you get scanned because you're then not being vigged, and the cop wants to scan someone who isnt vigged. its dumb for a multitude of reasons. You want the vig to shoot a townie or opposing scum, never your own dude, even if he is just a plank. When he flips Mariah Godfather that means you know Plankton is town, Pizza is town, and Meeko is town. Everyone else is a claimed town power role, or inactive gnarly. Gnarly becomes the trivial shot to end the game thereafter, because there simply arent any candidates for scum besides him. And the murder pattern matches him being Elf.

Mordenkainen's flip of Mariah Godfather is really all you need for every single player to know the correct solve, and to do the yeet and the vig correctly in the least amount of steps needed to end the game.

You can hold me accountable when any of that fails to materialize as a guilty person, and you now have an additional day and Night to do so.

That I believe is check and mate, good sir.

I did think about protecting PP but I was too worried that scum might take a shot at you, we couldn't trust Prof's reads because of the Godfathers left and I didn't want to play chicken with scum.

I have read through pizza's Night posts and I agree with him, he even got BC's role right. Why would he try and his team mate killed if he knew BC was a doc and was protecting pizza? That doesn't make sense. If he was an Elf then where does that leave gnarly? Why wouldn't pizza have killed me, I don't think he would be that arrogant as to call for his team mates deaths and keep the doc alive. It makes no sense. It does make sense that Mord and gnarly are the 2 remaining scum. If pizza is playing us then good luck to him but I doubt it.

Yes, let's do this



At least now we have at least 2 Night left with a vig and she has done a bloody good job of it. ToNight I would vig gnarly, if I was the vig and if that wasn't game over then I would have to relook at pizza or Suburban Plankton.

https://imgur.com/RCPDuFp.jpg

If/when Mord flips Mariah GF I will take back half the bad things I said about pizza!

Yeah, I don't see why he would have done that when he could have just won the game. But I am not very trusting, am I?

Pizza also isn't voting for someone he thinks is on the same team as BC, if he and BC were scum buddies I don't think pizza would have been shouting so loud for us to kill BC, he wouldn't want his protector to die. Pizza is voting for an Elf and if pizza is an Elf then it just doesn't make sense for him to play that way if he is scum. These thoughts are quite clear in my head, not so much written down lol.

Is it possible to have a Pre-Mortem ?

I should have acted on that slip sooner.

How much do you "Remove" from a player game to game, and how much do you "Keep" ?

That is, .... basically first impressions are damaging here. I'll save you the digression, but I found multiple posts from Pleonast that I thought were Scum AI.


--------


:pure:

Tell me why we shouldn't off Pizza.

:pure:


Outside of that, at this stage, I'll need good evidence. Failing both of those, I will probably frankly go with consensus.

:astonished:


Well, I did hedge it with the Pot leaves. I have never touched cigarettes even. And I legit, straight up, wonder if, because of my ADD if pot wouldn't help.

Anyway .... Uh... Yeah..

Morden is up to be wrapped at this point.

Yes, But if both teams shot at Prof then that would explain it or gnarly was missing and didn't put an order in? I think both pizza and I were shocked that we were still here.

Remembering that Bashorian Clement outed to propose an alliance to Elf faction yesterday phase, Bashorian Clement could simply have said "we are killing Jan, you kill anyone you think she won't protect" and that would have been a way for the scum faction to communicate intent to Elf faction without having overlapping kills.

Jan is the role that needed to die the most, so Vanta could become vulnerable.

Pizza suspected that Jan was the doctor for the past two nights in a row and did not shoot her, and is familiar enough with multiball to communicate murder intent if Pizza was Elf or Mariah aligned. (I'm not, I'm town.)

Vanta said that BC said something about hitting PP, I can't find that looking at his posts, but if you are an outed scum you are in prime position to at least indicate where you are shooting. Any active Elf member would have seen such intent.

I was active for much of the night, Mordenkainen was active at deadline yesterday. I flat out do not believe it is Meeko.

So the remaining candidates for elves are Suburban Plankton and gnarlycharlie because they're inactive.

Gnarly was active during Night two nights ago. To me, it's clear that gnarly wasn't around to coordinate kills with BC, and Gnarly is the person that BC outed in order to propose an alliance with.

Specifically, on N3, I proposed (last night, on n4) that because Gnarly had been voting for Bashorian Clement, and because Mord had been voting for A Poor Shepherd Boy, both mafia factions had been hostile toward each other and casing each other during day.

If neither of them spotted Jan's tell of being the town doctor (like I did), and they didn't believe Pleonast's claim (or didn't see it), then it is possible that Mariah team shot at Gnarly (the Elf Godfather, protected) because Gnarly was voting BC the Mariah Doctor, and Elf team shot at Mordenkainen because Mordenkainen voted for A Poor Shepherd Boy, who was the Elf Doctor.

So that's why no townies died on night three.

Once that happened, the scums were in such a bad spot yesterday that they could still lose even if a townie died that day, as long as town shot correctly, even IF they both did their night kills.

Turns out, if it's gnarly as I suspected, he likely didn't submit an order.

He wouldn't have shot Mordenkainen AGAIN, could have shot me since I was calling for his head and he did not do so, could have shot Jan, but did not do so.

And since he is Godfather, he cant be scanned by Prof P, so he would never have shot Prof P while the town Doc had claimed and the town Vig had claimed and pizza was calling for his death.

All of those would have been attempting to win the game.

Since none of those shots happened, he was asleep at the switch.

Correct remaining scum are Mord and Gnarly, and the ending is super anticlimactic.

@Meeko

Do you guys remember my Box Method of solving the game, like I used in the Colby11 untitled vanilla last year?

There was a pile of people who were suspect, and I actually had zero scums inside my town core.

I believe I have zero scums inside my town core right now. My town core is the outed town power roles, Meeko, and Suburban Plankton.

The remaining suspects are Askthepizzaguy (from your perspective), Gnarlycharlie, and Mordenkainen.

I have proposed a theory that explains all of the night kill failures all game, because of the voting patterns and fact that the remaining scums were protected from scan and night kill. It also matches the suspects' trying to get Suburban Plankton vigged. It also matches outed scum Bashorian Clement's behavior yesterday, to try to stop the mafia-mafia infighting to have any shot at winning the game.

It's an easy call from where I sit, because I happen to know for a fact that I am town. If I wasn't, Jan would be dead two nights ago.

So from where I sit, the game is solved to where you even have time to kill me, and then kill one of SP or Meeko if I were wrong about either of Gnarly or Mordenkainen.

There's essentially no doubt in my mind that Mord is the scum Godfather of Mariah. And the game only makes sense when Gnarly is the scum Godfather of Elf, because BC sure seemed to indicate in his posts that he expected help from that faction.

There's no reason to expect help from Suburban Plankton.

It's actually more likely that he was talking to me, than Plankton, because I was actively playing. But he wasn't, because he proposed the alliance AFTER I said he was always the Mariah Doctor, and that I bet my head he is guilty, kill him today.

That's not conditions for an alliance. So he wasn't talking to me. He outed to talk to someone whose name is not Suburban Plankton, and not Askthepizzaguy.

And if he was outing to work with Meeko, uhhhh I think you'd have shot at Jan, Meeko.

I believe every active player in the game could have made a call that easy. It would be practically insulting to accuse you of being scum right now. You'd have to have missed night, and you were active at night and called for BC to be vigged. Surely you wouldn't have not shot Jan.

So from where I am sitting, in the pool of 3 remaining suspects, where 2 are scum, I easily accuse everyone who isn't me, and it happens to match with my theory of exactly who the scums were for all of the game, or in gnarly's case, all of yesterday.

That's either an incredible coincidence that I will benefit from for the duration of this round only, and then die because Vanta has two shots and an additional yeet left, or I am town and the game is easy.

The worst case is we yeet me today and gnarly comes back and shoots. That forces Vanta to win the game on Night 6, because we can't yeet during Day 6 since Plankton is inactive.

But I would wager a lot that town still wins even that silly bananas endgame, because I doubt Vanta is going to shoot himself or Plankton on that night.

Vanta already said he had reason to suspect Gnarly.

So all the rest of you guys need is Mordenkainen's flip of Scum Godfather of Mariah, and the game is over.

You don't know for a fact I am town, you just have my not killing Jan and my trying hard to kill BC and calling for him to be yeeted, and suspecting APSB and saying why he is scum, and insisting on a single yeet of ACS on day 3 rather than ACS and Pleonast both, and my solve for all the missing murders which only makes sense when I am town, and the fact that you still have time to kill me tonight when I am wrong, as evidence in my favor.

And from my position, I know for a fact I am town, so I got to this solve faster than you guys because I don't have to guess my alignment.

I'm inside "the Box" with 2 other suspects.

I know I'm town. The game is over when you flip either of them today. It might take the rest of you a little longer to get the solve because it is less apparent.

Just like, it took me forever to get there on Pleonast being town yesterday and trying to shift back to BC.

Because Pleonast was in the POE, and he looked and played scummily, the solve was much harder.

Even though I only needed to find 1 townie in 4 other names, Pleonast was scummy enough that I made an error.

If you have 3 suspects and one of them is Pizza, the solve is not so simple from your chair.

I've been calling for scans, shots, and yeets on scums all game, except for the unfortunate BillMc day. They also voted each other and then shot each other, and that's why scums never capitalized on our mistake with Pleonast.

I also want to note for the record, because I've been critical:

Pleonast's chaotic evil gambit to get the vig off of him did in fact create a result where the vig did not shoot Pleonast and killed Dizzy instead.

It's still not recommended to claim there because when Silverjan counterclaims, it outs the doctor and probably gets you shot always.

If not for Jan correctly not counterclaiming him during night, that could have ended in disaster.

If my insistence not to counterclaim helped Jan make that decision then I was useful in some way there.

But the point is, Pleonast's move did help, and it was intended to help.

It also made it difficult to solve him for alignment. But a combination of good play from Jan and Pleonast not getting vigged that night put us in a superior position during Night 3, and by extension, Night 4.

Since he died yesterday I also had enough time to piece together the bizarro missing murder mystery, which I couldn't figure out properly when he was alive and still suspect.

There were too many combinations to narrow it down. I couldn't explain the murders correctly until I very very seriously investigated the possibility that he was just vanilla town and the scums didn't shoot him at all.

Which always makes no sense. Unless both factions shot each other because both factions were voting each other and its exactly gnarly the godfather and mord the godfather who got shot by each other.

Then it fits the vote record, fits what happened, and explains the additional missing murder last night.

That's too many things fitting together for it to be a coincidence. It just has to be what happened.

Unfortunately for ATPG, when / if I flip, I will be found to be Mall Santa aligned. Since that is true (on my word as a townie... for what that's worth) ATPG is simply wrong.

What people have to decide is whether he is wrong maliciously or mistakenly. (After all, he doesn't have perfect knowledge of this game - yet). If he's mistaken, either he had made a false assumption (eg SP is a Mall Santa) or hew has misread the way I play - and that is hugely common. I don't know how many times I've been accused of Mafia alignment because other players think I'm lying low. Or maybe he's made a logic error somewhere, but that's less likely.

Or, he's trying to fit me up so we lose a Mall Santa Today and the two mafia Families get two kills at Night.

Given how similar his polay is to his Mafia-aligned play in Wheel of Life, I believe it's malicious.

I see that I'm in the wrap lead.

At this stage, I can accept that because ATPG won't let his argument go until it is wrenched from his jaws by my flip.

Good luck fellow Mall Santas.

For Mordenkainen to win here, he would have to argue that someone besides me is scum, because he still needs to not be vigged when I flip town today.

As soon as he does, he is accusing a townie, and that townie knows he is wrong.

And he can't murder me to win, since that just keeps known townies alive.

Can't win by yeeting me, can't win by murdering me. That's game. (again)

I see he posted. I am making dinner.

Still needs some theory for who Elf is, some theory for who Mariah is, as opposed to thinking I can be town while voting me at the same time, which is bizarre.

I am also up for hitting Gnarly. (shrug)

Combination of accusing me which is wrong, saying it is Plankton rather than gnarlycharlie, not exploring the option of gnarly at all, no complete theory as to who the scum teams both were all game is an incomplete answer.

For example, putting the remaining scums as both Gnarly and Suburban Plankton doesn't make sense because then both scum teams called for Plankton to be vigged.

If your last three guesses are that Pleonast is guilty, I am guilty, and Plankton is guilty, then I do not believe you can be town even by remarkable coincidence of events that you did not control.

Gnarly should have been in there somewhere at the very least.

I would also have to think that a scum shot at Suburban Plankton one of those nights while doctor hunting.

But if SP was the doctor he wasn't protecting anyone. You just shoot Vanta.

As long as you are accusing two townies, I can't let you go, Morden.

I'd have to believe you have a scummy iso full of scumtells, that Elf faction never shot at you even though you voted for their doctor, that you think the scums ever prioritized shooting Plankton themselves after calling for him to be vigged while he was inactive, that you legitimately never suspected Gnarlycharlie for no reason, and somehow suspect I am still town here because you have two strong suspects not named me, which you don't want to convince anyone of while you're still alive and able to do so.

I have never been in such a position as a townie before. This would be a first in 12 years of play. But it's your call if you don't want to present a complete solve which contains two plausible names for Elf and Mariah scums before day ends.

If you can't, that's a different story.

I've seen that story before. Scums can't name all the scums not named themselves because they do not exist. Townies can.

Here's an example of ATPG error.
He says I saifd SP was a Mafiate. I did noit.

I said that if SP was Mafiate, then all ATPG's arguments started from a false premise. That is obvious. Why is he misreading this? I think it's because he's Mafiate (probably EotS, but I'm not certain of that as he could be taking a leaf from the Storyteller playbook. Risky, given the small team sizes but establishing town cred at this late stage may well be a gamewinning tactic. The game, if you are interested, was on the Dope, and entitled something like "Werewolves II - this time with Mafia" and run by NAF1138. 2006 or early 07, I think.)

I don't need to argue. I will be vindicated at Dusk. You'll have to deal with him after that.

If you are right about pizza then who is your second candidate? If you do flip Town then the vig can kill pizza toNight and you will still be vindicated. If Suburban Plankton is scum then this game is just broken.

Hey, some thoughts:

1. We have two absent players, I believe? I have no substitutions planned. As far as I am concerned, they are in the game still.

2. Morden, we currently have unanimous vote against you EXCEPT the absent players. I am happy to give you to tomorrow at 8:30 PM to make your case and persuade players to unvote you. I also want you to know that if you are not up for that, you can tell me to end tonight at 8:30 and I will end the day with your wrap. (assuming no players unvote you).

Again, it isn't unanimous against Morden because two players are not voting at all. If both quiet players vote Morden, I'll consider that a hammer vote and move on no matter what.

Morden, let us know if you want to wait past tonight with even just 4 votes on you. It is totally fair game to need the extra 24 hours.

Note: I will take all Night actions in advance including contingent style ones.

*Player hat on.*

In the interests of keeping the players engaged. please free to move the game on to the suggested timescale, unless Gnarly or SP pop in and want extra time.

With the amount of stuff to reread, I would probably need about a week to thoroughly digest it all.

I'm okay with speeding it up but not that fast I'm still thinking

And...I'm working right now, can you tell? :) I need to look at stuff. Later.

We can still win if we are wrong, why drag out this agony :)

OK, so Morden is fine with that, but we no longer have the votes on him. I'm still up for it tonight if:

- the four other active players vote Morden
- neither of the two silent folks show up
- the two silent folks show up AND they vote Morden(achieving unanimous vote)

Otherwise, we will continue this Day until tomorrow.

So which of these are Mafiate?

From my point of view, there are two candidates from three names; ATPG, Gnarlycharlie and SP. Me because I know what I am (and you will soon find out_, Vanta Black the Vig and Silverjan.

Which of those three is not Mafiate? Probably SP, as I suspect that there are still two active teams, and last Night the teams shot at the two outed Town powers.

Forget that. I forgot Meeko. How could I do that? I'll try again.

Okay, so you vote for Gnarlycharlie and I also vote for Gnarlycharlie.

If the two remaining scums were me and Gnarlycharlie then that causes me to die after you die and we still reduce the number of scums in the game by 1 today, before a Night even happens.

Meeko is the only other person in the game besides you and me who could plausibly be the Mariah Godfather.

He certainly doesn't look like one, though.

Elf Godfather makes sense for Gnarly, explains the missing kills, plural.

My issue is that when Bashorian Clement outed yesterday, you said nothing about it and said your two suspects were me and Pleonast, both incorrect. You've never suggested voting for gnarlycharlie all game. I just checked all your posts since the game began.

So which of these are Mafiate?

From my point of view, there are two candidates from four names; ATPG, Gnarlycharlie, Meeko and SP. I rule out me because I know what I am (and you will soon find out, Vanta Black the Vig and Silverjan.

Which of those four is not Mafiate?

I definitely think ATPG is one of them. Now, he's been championing Meeko as townie most of the game. If ATPG is Town then he really believes that, but he has no special knowledge, which means Meeko is still a candidate for the final three. If, on the other hand, ATPG is Mafiate (whichever family), it makes no sense for him to champion the other team's Godfather unless ATPG is thinking he'd rather have the rival Family win than the enemy - Town.

Thus I conclude that one of ATPG or Meeko is Town, leaving us with a final three. Unfortunately, the best argument for eliminating a player is that SP is completely absent from the forums, and has been since early Christmas Eve (I'm GMT, remember). That makes him more likely to be Town than the others.

So Gnarltycharlie and <ATPG|Meeko> are the Mafiates.

I could explain missing kills with Meeko being Mariah, meeko can't actually be the second shot after BC shoots, and Gnarly being Elf. I just do not believe that is the case, because Meeko reads solidly town.

Can't explain the missing kills with Plankton being called for by vig shot by APSB, yourself, and gnarly. Most of those names have to be scum. One of the teams would have had to try to shoot a doctor candidate as well, and thats not Plankton.

I also have no idea who BC was talking to yesterday unless it was Gnarly.

Meeko makes no sense as Elf Shelf, and kept trying to kill Bashorian even after BC offered Elves an alliance. Meeko would have shot someone last night. BC wouldn't have been trying to reach out to inactive Plankton at the cost of outing himself and he wouldn't have been shooting at Plankton by mistake, hitting a protected GF, because that's just not very likely at all.

I also know BC wasn't talking to me.

So he wasn't talking to me or Meeko or Suburban Plankton, and you make more sense as Mariah than Elf, but it ultimately doesn't matter as long as you flip scum. I am guessing Mariah, based on the kills missing and the cross votes between BC and Gnarly and APSB this game and that two of them flipped scums of opposing alignments.

That leaves Gnarly.

Any solve from you as a townie has to include Gnarlycharlie as a suspect.