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Originally Posted by ryevermouthbitters
Well you know, you get compared to rapists and called pro-starvation by a bunch of clueless idiots enough times and you start to wonder if remaining reserved has any benefits.
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I have to admit that its an unfair comparison. Rapists usually serve longer prison terms.
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Originally Posted by THespos
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wolf Larsen
If I were going to do this, I'd collect a bunch of point in time social data and loan history data and then use it to train a neural net to figure out which things were predictive of repayment problems and what the time lag was. I'd then validate it with some new data to make sure it still had predictive value before I let it be a weight in the underwriting equation.
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This is my biggest issue with Big Data. There's this assumption of predictive value that comes along with these ideas of using social and behavioral data points to find most desirable/least desirable customers.
Vetting shit like this is part of my job. Ninety-nine times out of a hundred, these Big Data companies haven't validated their supposed predictive abilities with any hardcore evidence. Makes for some interesting meetings once you mention this, especially after having asked some fun questions about data-gathering techniques and their compatibility with established privacy policies (and the prevailing attitude toward snooping...) |
I have yet to see things like Facebook, Google, or any of the Big Data powered recommendation engines have better than 10% accuracy when it comes to suggesting things to me. Their big failure, I think, comes from the fact that they only ask you if you "like" something. That can put you in the ballpark, but just because you happen to like cars, for example, doesn't mean that you're interested in the latest Ford Slug, or Smart Coffinmobile.
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Originally Posted by Wolf Larsen
I don't believe cars would be much cheaper. Car manufacturers do not make much per car. (I went through the Toyota annual report with a fine tooth comb back when I owned the stock.) It's only a few hundred per car. You could make some ugly but durable cars that were somewhat cheaper, but I doubt they'd sell. Removing insurance on the vehicle itself (not your potential liability to others) would drop the price less than a set of tires.
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I give you the
Tata Nano. The cheapest car in the world (less than $3K). Built by low-wage slaves in India, with a reputation for bursting into flames. I can think of a few things they could do that would potentially lower the cost (Studebaker had a concept car where the hood and trunklid were interchangeable, and the front and rear doors could be cross-swapped, so instead of having 6 different parts, you had only 2. A big savings on inventory costs and tooling.), but nothing that could be built as cheap using labor paid a decent wage.