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I do not know if an opposing scum faction which cannot communicate privately would read that post as an indication they were hitting Prof P, Vanta. In fact, because he was outed, and was naming a townie, if you were reading something into that, it reads more like BC was saying he was going to shoot Silverjan- Because that is a single unambiguous name. So if that post were a signal, that would be the signal. And then BC didnt kill Jan, so I don't think that post means a signal.
I think BC was just being a nice guy and saying happy birthday to Jan while taking out the one guy who could scan BC as guilty.
And Elf didnt shoot Jan because Elf is on a Shelf somewhere, probably.
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