Quote:
Originally Posted by Pleonast
I'm looking through the chances of multiple scenarios. Too much math to post here, but our overall chances of winning is roughly one-third, assuming optimal play by all players. Mostly likely play-out of the game is we execute two Townies in the first two Days, investigator reveals a scum on Day Three, and we have 2 Town vs 1 Scum on Day Four. That's basically a 50-50 shot at that point.
We're basically in end-game right now, but without the accumulation of information from earlier parts in the game. Small games are inherently difficult to balance.
Having multi-vote would help us out. Even if we can't officially do it, we can still state who our second vote would be. However we do it, we need to vote off players that most Townies think should be voted off. That is, allowing scum to affect our vote is especially bad (since we're at end game).
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1. "" Too much math to post here "" ==
Pleonast is asking for trust and faith, and to be followed blindly. There would be more motivation here, if he were Scum. I think Town would be more free with "showing their work". Or, mention it in passing.
2. As I mentioned before "Assuming optimal play" is IMHO next door to pingy.
We are not going to get optimal play. This is like all of those infomercials that have like 4 or 5 of the cookery device ready to go, with none of the prep, and none of the clean up, the device looks amazing, until you take two seconds andr realize, you are only going to buy one device of the 5, and even then, the prep, set up, and clean up after, is going to take even longer, than the rapid fire assembly line style process of the 5 devices on the counter. Sizzle, no steak.
3. A hypothetical situation is given, with us losing two town, and cop revealing themselves [[Perhaps too early? Or when Scum can most use the info?]] and then a proclamation that we will then, no, wait, are now, no wait, we already lost the game. Not unlike "
The Day After Tomorrow" where every 20 minutes The End Of The World was moved up half of the time stated, until the title time frame was given.
This sets a clock that I don't like, don't believe in, and think only Scum profit from.
3.1 Dammit, I just lost "The Game". And if you play that game, you did too.
4. a middling block of text in the middle.
Part of me wants to say it was over analyzed and put in, just to smooth over the rest of the post. On one hand, seems meaningful, and on the other, meaningless.
5.
Last paragraph seems like the biggest fishing expedition ever. Tell me who you suspect, and if I, or my partner are on deck, that would give us more than ample time to change what we are doing.
5.1 Which, come to think of it, it almost seems like there is a slip here. That or, Crazy like a fox / double bluff. Yes, it would suck if Scum did do that. ... and then we proceed to watch it happen it exactly that way.
6. More "
The Day After Tomorrow" fast forwarding. I could have sworn, when we started this post we were at day 1, and now, after reading this last line, it's like we are in night 4.
6.1 It just feels like undue pressure to something, quick. Ready. Fire. Aim. "" Do what I am telling you to do, if you don't already have a plan, and don't think twice about it. You can trust me. ""