17 Dec: Tunisia launches the 'Arab Spring'- Taking stock.

[Lounsbury]

One year ago, 17 Dec, a itinerant fruit seller, Mohammed Bouazizi, set himself on fire, setting off a series of protests that unlike past popular protests in southern Tunisia, reached the capital and attracted for the first time support of the middle class and the elite.

Ironically I was in the country on business at the time this kicked off and again when things got hot, initially noticing nothing but a boiling frustration even among the middle class.

Now, one year later, a bit of taking stock.

On one hand, Tunisia appears to be on a good path to forming a consensus government under its "mini" constitution, although some issues with Salafist violence continue. The split between secular and Islamist remains (although in the Maghreb there is a significant class aspect, and also 'old urbanized versus recent urbanized within the same economic class). On the other hand, Egypt (unsurprisingly frankly, as I predicted) is going sideways. Libya is in an ambiguous state and hard to say what may emerge, although I remain cautiously optimistic that a second phase of civil war will be avoided, if only through sheer bribery.

Now, in taking stock, the question is, positive or negative?

My judgement, positive without reservation. The stability of the old regimes was a faux stability, that promoted the cancer of Salafism. But there is significant risk of Egypt going to hell, however there was no way out with the Mubarek regime, it was not genuinely supporting a liberal society, a secular society or anything other than a Neo Mamlouk parasite state.

[Wolf Larsen]

Interesting. Things are going better than I expected. I was expecting it all to turn into radical Islamist enemy states.

[Half-Man/Half-French]

It's not about America. Who gives a shit? Come back when it's about America.

[Khampelf]

Originally Posted by Half-Man/Half-French

It's not about America. Who gives a shit? Come back when it's about America.

Blatant threadshitting. Reported.

I'm always interested in what Louns has to say about the Middle East.

Please do continue, L.

Is the Egyptian military likely to cede power to civilians eventually, or was this a coup that rode in on an anti-government movement?

[Lounsbury]

It is very hard to figure our which direction Egyptian military will go.

However, they are showing no particular signs of giving up real control. One must remember they have significant economic interests that would be threatened if a critical, non complacent government came in.

I am thus inclined to think that the potential of an Algerian solution is not to be excluded.

[Lungfish]

The military in Egypt are not in a hurry to transfer power to a civilian elected Government. George Dubya Bush and his neo-con buddies claimed that the Arabs want Democracy. Does the events in North Africa vindicated his "Freedom Agenda"?

[Lounsbury]

I don't, I should add, see the Egyptian military elite tolerating a Salafist or a Brotherhood & Salafist domination (i.e. a Sunni Iran).

However, given the splits in ranks, it is very hard to see how this is going to proceed. The secular opposition are not terribly competent and seem incapable of finding a voice that appeals to a wider class of Egyptians (of course this is something deliberately engineered by the Mubarek government, so not a great surprise).

Unless a moderate section of the Brotherhood decides for ecnomic stability etc that they need the secularists.... I see a slide towards Salafist type positions, under a siren call of the Gulf providing economic support (which is a mirage in my view, the Egyptian economy simply would collapse, the Gulf in the end is not going to come through with the capital).

[Lounsbury]

Originally Posted by Lungfish

The military in Egypt are not in a hurry to transfer power to a civilian elected Government. George Dubya Bush and his neo-con buddies claimed that the Arabs want Democracy. Does the events in North Africa vindicated his "Freedom Agenda"?

No.

[Jaglavak]

The info I've got on the MENA region says their cost of food and fuel has roughly doubled in the past 5 years. Your average schmoe has gone from getting by allright to just barely squeaking by, and hungry on a regular basis. But yet the population seems to have unrealistic expectations of the democratic process. IMHO there will be no stability in the area until those little issues are resolved. Since there is no resolving them, it's going to take a major shift in expectations. I think they are going down hard on that.

Of course I'm the resident optimist.

[Lounsbury]

Subsidies.

Feed through of global costs is very limited.

As such, on basic food stuffs, the impact relative to squeaking by and hunger is limited.

However, the pressure on national budgets from the subsidy funds has become enormous. In Egypt the spend on subsidies is clearly non sustainable, particularly given the near absence of FDI or export earnings to off-set FDI collapse. Egypt is coming very close to default. IF they default and can not subsidize basic consumption products, you can expect a nasty scenario, either Algeria or Iran.

The Maghreb is better positioned overall than Egypt as
(i) their domestic food production (thanks to the past five years having good rains) takes an edge off, both entering the domestic market and from hard currency earnings on their
(ii) greater social stability - Tunisia and Morocco are reasonably stable, although strikes are a problem it is nothing like Egypt - so tourism and exports holding up better overall. In Algerian case, massive petrol and gas earnings has given the a huge cushion in cash, although their private market economy is an utter basket case.
(iii) in the case of Morocco and Tunisia, fairly functional private sectors that may be able to profit from soft and slow devaluations (managing down) as well as new governments attacking corruption in a more serious fashion than in the past.

However, for both Morocco and Tunisia they do not have much FX reserve cushion presently, and while they are not in imminent default threat, a significant European crisis would fuck them right into a cocked hat.

Not up to date on Jordan so shall not comment there.

Egypt is really screwed, however. Honestly a scenario where Egypt does better than limp along is not obvious to me.

[Lounsbury]

The slide of the Military government in Egypt towards old Mubarek style accusations of agentes provacateurs, and other actions such as declaring they will control the provisional government suggests to me we are witnessing a slow motion coup d'etat in Egypt. I would sadly favour an Algerian type resolution as the most likely hypothesis coming up.

[Lounsbury]

An amusing and correct observation from my old friend Issandr of the Arabist.

Someone — a behavioral psychologist perhaps — should do a study of the power of denial in Egypt, something I’ve long called the Egyptian Reality Distortion Field (ERDF — used in another with regards to Steve Jobs). The ERDF gives Egyptians, notably public officials, an uncanny ability to disregard what is plain for all to see and, with the utmost confidence, assure all comers of its opposite. Ganzouri today described people dying during the protests and then insisted “there was no violence” before storming out of his press conference. Last October the SCAF insisted no army truck ran over protestors despite much video evidence being available of exactly that.
The most incredible thing about the ERDF is that it seems to work on most of the population, giving many Egyptians the ability to assert one thing and then its opposite with no awareness of self-contradiction. You have to experience it to understand it. Much of it has to do with Egypt being the Blanche Dubois of the Middle East — a faded belle whose glory days have long gone but who keeps on pretending otherwise — and is all too often indulged (somewhat abusively) by those around her. Apparently, a country can suffer from post-menopausal hysteria

[Lounsbury]

An amusing and correct observation from my old friend Issandr of the Arabist.

Someone — a behavioral psychologist perhaps — should do a study of the power of denial in Egypt, something I’ve long called the Egyptian Reality Distortion Field (ERDF — used in another with regards to Steve Jobs). The ERDF gives Egyptians, notably public officials, an uncanny ability to disregard what is plain for all to see and, with the utmost confidence, assure all comers of its opposite. Ganzouri today described people dying during the protests and then insisted “there was no violence” before storming out of his press conference. Last October the SCAF insisted no army truck ran over protestors despite much video evidence being available of exactly that.
The most incredible thing about the ERDF is that it seems to work on most of the population, giving many Egyptians the ability to assert one thing and then its opposite with no awareness of self-contradiction. You have to experience it to understand it. Much of it has to do with Egypt being the Blanche Dubois of the Middle East — a faded belle whose glory days have long gone but who keeps on pretending otherwise — and is all too often indulged (somewhat abusively) by those around her. Apparently, a country can suffer from post-menopausal hysteria

[Illuminati Primus]

This is really interesting reading, thanks L. Is the democracy running in Tunisia actually a democracy though? Or is it just something like looks close enough to one to make those running the country feel like they have a mantle of acceptance?

Also what of dear old Libya? It sounded like the interim government was the model of altruistic enlightenment when they spoke during the uprising, how's it actually going now that they're in charge?

[Lounsbury]

Originally Posted by Illuminati Primus

This is really interesting reading, thanks L. Is the democracy running in Tunisia actually a democracy though?

What would be "actually a democracy"?

They had clean and fair elections.

3 leading parties (1 Islamist, 2 left wing) have put together a government (or are putting together a government).

Elections, results, coalition of leading political interests. Looks like a democracy to me.

Or is it just something like looks close enough to one to make those running the country feel like they have a mantle of acceptance?

Elections with consequences. None of the winning parties are connected with the old regime, virtually no one with significant old regime background is going to be in government....

Also what of dear old Libya?

Modest Chaos.

There are signs of an emerging split between Benghazi and Zintan & Misrata.

It sounded like the interim government was the model of altruistic enlightenment when they spoke during the uprising, how's it actually going now that they're in charge?

No one is clearly in charge, and if care is not taken there is a chance of a second civil war.

It's not written in stone, but the interim government council needs to open up more and fast.

[Lounsbury]

A depressing analysis of the Egyptian situation which analysts (including myself) are becoming increasingly alarmed by. The economic collapse, ongoing is leading Egypt to a very dangerous place where the Salafist parties, who are genuinely scary, take over. Or Egypt goes down the Algerian path. Abu Aardvark, who I used to correspond with, has grown quite alarmed, I am actually more so.

Egypt counts in particular because of the Suez canal.

As far as I am concerned, a Brotherhood regime that is socially cretinous... well if that is what Egyptians want for themselves, fine. Brotherhood is mature enough to know to mind Ps & Qs.

The Salafis are not. They are genuinely dangerous. They could be foreseen to promote Al Qaeda-esque type politics and do insane things like cut Suez to infidels...

[Lounsbury]

An interesting evaluation from the Eurasian Review, focused on the Maghreb, "North Africa’s Democratic Prospects – Analysis" that is worth reading.

The paragraph that should set your understanding is here:

1. Large-scale demographic and economic pressures, particularly the youth bulge, with all of the resulting impact on state-society relations and on relations with Europe. Out of the Maghreb states’ eighty million persons, over 50 percent are under the age of 30, and the growth rates of their economies can’t meet the demands placed upon it. The result is a high level of alienation, pessimism, and a desire to emigrate. As it is, the large North African emigrant communities in Europe bind the two shores of the Mediterranean together as never before, posing a host of challenges for both European and North African states.