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  #1  
Old 13th January 2022, 05:09 PM
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Yeetmas 3 - Night 4 ....but what we he do if we all tied?

Actually, let's not all tie with 1 vote, OK? It's unfun. Anyway, we did tie here and we should probably deal with that.

Pleonast has been wrapped.

Pleonast was an Ordinary Mall Santa. Vanilla Town.

Night is now underway and since I am NOT going out of town*, we can make Night 48 hours. It will end at 8:30 PM Eastern on Saturday, January 15.

Please get all Night actions in and if you like, do so in a reasonable amount of time.

  #2  
Old 13th January 2022, 05:13 PM
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Scums are Bashorian Clement the Mariah Doctor, Gnarlycharlie, and Mordenkainen.

Not that it mattered.
  #3  
Old 13th January 2022, 05:14 PM
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Since I will be dead in the morning, see you all in postgame.
  #4  
Old 13th January 2022, 05:46 PM
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Well, Pfui!

And that is why Town mustn't lie to Town.

Good luck, Vanta.
  #5  
Old 13th January 2022, 06:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Prof. Pepperwinkle View Post
Well, Pfui!

And that is why Town mustn't lie to Town.

Good luck, Vanta.
And yet, if Vanta shoots BC and BC flips the scum doctor, the game is still winnable for town even after that move.

And its a shooting gallery of scums all around my body, not including my body.

You have to think I am scum to miss tonight. See you in postgame!
  #6  
Old 13th January 2022, 08:39 PM
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Grrrr
  #7  
Old 14th January 2022, 12:29 AM
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Well, Pfui!

And that is why Town mustn't lie to Town.

Good luck, Vanta.
I know, how the hell was Town supposed to know what his plan was? I am not surprised that Pleo did that I am just upset that he didn't say anything before I claimed.
  #8  
Old 14th January 2022, 03:01 AM
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Well, Pfui!

And that is why Town mustn't lie to Town.

Good luck, Vanta.
I know, how the hell was Town supposed to know what his plan was? I am not surprised that Pleo did that I am just upset that he didn't say anything before I claimed.
Well, I think YOU'VE played a very good game.
  #9  
Old 14th January 2022, 03:14 AM
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Mahaloth, here's hoping and praying your family recover quickly.
  #10  
Old 14th January 2022, 08:42 AM
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Mahaloth, here's hoping and praying your family recover quickly.
Son tested negative, wife tested negative(she has been sick....). Anyway, I am getting tested this afternoon.

My daughter is sick a bit, but recovering. She was the positive case.

All vaccinated fully. Daughter was scheduled for booster when she got ill.
  #11  
Old 14th January 2022, 10:13 AM
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I think I am incapable of ever reading Pleonast as town.

I'm willing to own up to 49% of the factors that go into that.
  #12  
Old 14th January 2022, 10:14 AM
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And that is why Town mustn't lie to Town.
Go on....
  #13  
Old 14th January 2022, 11:41 AM
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I see about five ways at least that I can do something really stupid toNight.

And maybe one way I can do something non-stupid.

Place your bets!
  #14  
Old 14th January 2022, 02:05 PM
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And that is why Town mustn't lie to Town.
Go on....
Because if Pleo hadn't lied about being the Doc after having initially said he wasn't the Doc, then he would have been more credible when he said he was only Town, and I, for one, might well have placed my vote on Bashorian.
  #15  
Old 14th January 2022, 06:39 PM
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I see about five ways at least that I can do something really stupid toNight.

And maybe one way I can do something non-stupid.

Place your bets!
Vig BC ?
  #16  
Old 14th January 2022, 06:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Meeko View Post

Go on....
Because if Pleo hadn't lied about being the Doc after having initially said he wasn't the Doc, then he would have been more credible when he said he was only Town, and I, for one, might well have placed my vote on Bashorian.

I see.

I reduce my culpability down to .49%
  #17  
Old 14th January 2022, 08:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Silverjan View Post

I know, how the hell was Town supposed to know what his plan was? I am not surprised that Pleo did that I am just upset that he didn't say anything before I claimed.
Well, I think YOU'VE played a very good game.
Thank you. That's the nicest thing you have ever said to me
  #18  
Old 14th January 2022, 08:51 PM
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Mahaloth, here's hoping and praying your family recover quickly.
Son tested negative, wife tested negative(she has been sick....). Anyway, I am getting tested this afternoon.

My daughter is sick a bit, but recovering. She was the positive case.

All vaccinated fully. Daughter was scheduled for booster when she got ill.
I hope they get better soon.
  #19  
Old 14th January 2022, 08:53 PM
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I see about five ways at least that I can do something really stupid toNight.

And maybe one way I can do something non-stupid.

Place your bets!
I wish I knew. I had a dream that we voted for pizza and he was Town, don't think that means very much though.

Gnarlycharlie is a good bet. Suburban Plankton is a bit worrying too but I think you could leave him alone for now.
  #20  
Old 14th January 2022, 11:29 PM
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Hey scumbos don't you want to keep me alive toDay. It's my birthday and it would be just too cruel to kill me today of all days.
  #21  
Old 15th January 2022, 12:47 AM
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Hey scumbos don't you want to keep me alive toDay. It's my birthday and it would be just too cruel to kill me today of all days.
Happy Birthday!
  #22  
Old 15th January 2022, 12:54 AM
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Hey scumbos don't you want to keep me alive toDay. It's my birthday and it would be just too cruel to kill me today of all days.
Happy Birthday!
Thank you xxx
  #23  
Old 15th January 2022, 03:19 AM
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Happy Day, Jan!
  #24  
Old 15th January 2022, 08:27 AM
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Yeah, happy birthday Silverjan.



Seconding what Prof P said, you played your role as it should be played. You didn't lie about your role ever, you didn't counterclaim.

I have not been in the situation where a vanilla townie claimed doctor at MYLO in order to deflect suspicion off of himself or draw a kill. The reason is, usually there isn't a doctor alive at MYLO, usually people know better than to make fake claims at MYLO because of the consequences that happen when you lie at MYLO since town doesn't have any mistakes left.

For all my experience I wasn't prepared to play out that exact scenario properly.

The better move was to not say anything, except.... it's MYLO, pretty much. You can't not voice suspicions there, there might not be any time left in the game.

What I've been saying all game and what I've been using to solve is that townies unlike scums have to solve the game during day phases, before it is too late in the game for them to make a difference, before town loses. Scums are trying to wait for town to make mistakes, because they can shoot their way out of any jam except their last person dying off.

Myself, Vanta, you, we all need to accuse people we think are scummy during Day.

Pleonast's claim wasn't credible- I didn't believe it on the spot, I didn't need a counterclaim. Dizzy the Elf scum didn't believe it either, and didn't shoot Pleonast, obviously, because he was vanilla town and not protected. It was only when he was never counterclaimed that I had to look at what the game looked like when he was a doctor and tried solve it from there.

From there, I still had you as at the very least a vanilla townie in my solve there, and had the scums down to:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy View Post
I will say gnarlycharlie should post today because if he does not then I rescind my town lean on him.

Hi gnarly. Check in and vote, thats your minimum.
Gnarlycharlie for going inactive, then being active and not checking in like a townie should.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy View Post
Bashorian Clement can be the scum doctor remaining or either of the two godfathers. He is one of my top 3 suspects remaining and can be any of the three scum by role, as opposed to Morden who can only be 2 of them and who would be vulnerable to a vig shot on either night on the next 2 nights.

Look at day one, with the extremely early park vote on ACS, makes him less likely to be affliated with Elf Shelf faction. He does nothing else with his vote all day.

His day two vote comes very very late after a very long skate from early day one, at the end of day two does he do anything and at the time it is pretty much too late to matter. I also do not buy his suspicion on me in the slightest. I understand others', not his.

He then joins the wagon on ACS day three and also skates through that round not trying to affect the game state.

I reiterate the case I made against him during night, it is almost identical to the case I made on Shepherd Boy, except Bashorian Clement is even less involved with the game than Shep was. He is not trying to win during day.
Bashorian Clement, who literally outed himself in this post I'm now quoting a fourth time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement View Post
So unless the slim possibility occurred that both scum factions shot at whomever the Town doc protected, both scum know who the other faction's godfather is. And the Mariahs have the upper hand in eliminating the Elfs (is it Elfs because it's a proper noun? Sister C needed). But no I'm not reading that correctly because one scum faction could have shot at whomever the Town doc protected and one at the other faction's godfather. So really my initial conclusion is only true if the Mariahs shot at whomever Dizzy protected. But the Mariahs really need the Elf godfather's help at picking off townies at this point, so even if they know who it is they wouldn't lim there.

Time to put names to alignment. I was moderatey surprised that APSB/Dizzy flipped red despite my posturing Night 4.

I don't like to inject my personal stuff into the game, but like I said, I'm not going to be around much except for phone posting the next few days, but I just got settled and wanted to get this out before bed and then if Mrs drives for a bit tomorrow I can get more content and then Monday is full of appointments and more driving.
This means he was lying about who he put down as his suspects and the rest of this post is coordination with other scums.

And he posted that after I had cased him for not solving during day, and had voted him and bet my head he flips scum.

I had posted all this before that:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy View Post


If BC flips Mariah team Scum Doctor, I have a specific vig shot I would request, and it is Mordenkainen.

However, if Mord gets put off to the Day after that, that is also fine. I dont think it matters. Once the final scum doc is gone town is the faction that's getting the majority of the kill power remaining. Which is rather trivial to convert into a win.

1 kill power toDay
1 kill power that is unstoppable tonight, 2 maximum scum kills.
1 kill power toMorrow
1 kill power that is unstoppable tomorrow night, and probably only 1 scum kill.
1 kill power the Day after that

And the scums absolutely have to focus down the town power roles, they can't afford to not try to hit the doctor anymore because they have to hit doctor then vig or the game is over.

That means the doctor should have a very very large chance of kill stoppage tonight as well, which just gives town another Day phase I think, which is another town controlled kill power.

I havent done the math.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy View Post
If I / we get two scums dead in the next Day/Night cycle the last one is within 2 names almost always, and I will vote with whichever one is willing to yeet the other first, to win the game on the spot, and recommend hitting the other if that doesnt yield anything.

We have so much kill power, the power swing on last night is redonkulous. I'm ready to put this game to bed.
The last two names were you and gnarlycharlie who I had already called out for stealth activity during Night phase.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy View Post
Naming names:

I really think BC always flips scum here. Any single additional scum death is devastating.
Meeko never flips scum here, and Plankton doesn't make sense as a scum.

If the guess that Plankton is town is correct, that forces the names of the scums to be a very short list of people from my perspective, and when scums start dying because I named those people, that makes Plankton almost always town.

Plankton becomes more likely to be scum when my suspects flip town, and so does Meeko (but the amount I do not think this is the case is very extreme.) I am betting my head they actually will not. That's my experience talking.

Neither one flips scum this game to such a degree I am risking everything on that bet.

When neither of them are scum and I am town, this endgame is beyond trivial.
Because I had verbally already discounted Meeko and Suburban Plankton as likely suspects, and had Vanta and Prof P as town.


That means I had probably solved the game correctly in Universe A (where Pleonast was the town doctor), since I was always sinking gnarlycharlie straight to the bottom when he didn't post yesterDay.

The detail that you were doc and pleo was vanilla was not meaningful to the solve for alignment.

Later, much later, when I put serious thought into Universe C, where Pleonast was a vanilla townie, I again arrived at Mordenkainen, Gnarlycharlie, and Bashorian Clement as the three scums.

We know Mordenkainen can't be the scum doctor because of Prof P's scan result of innocent, if Mord is scum he is always one of the 2 godfathers remaining.

Gnarly's behavior puts him as always a scum doctor or godfather remaining but Prof doesnt have time to scan him before Vanta shoots. He could be either, I guess.

Bashorian Clement is also always scum due to that post I showed you guys. Since he and Gnarly are the only two possible candidates for Mariah Team scum doctor from my perspective, that's why I wanted him flipped yesterday and Gnarly taken out by shot N4 or yeet Day 5.

So my solve efforts narrowed it down to those three names twice, and even removed one of them from the pool of possible Mariah doctors.
  #25  
Old 15th January 2022, 08:30 AM
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My guess is that BC outed because he can be outed by Scan, whereas the Godfather of his team cannot be outed by scan, and I had been calling for Gnarly to get scanned at some point.

If BC had outed as the Godfather of his team, that would mean that Gnarly could be outed by scan by Prof P tonight.

Then both would be outed and both can die before game ends even if Elf Shelf somehow won the game.

That's tactically sub optimal. You don't want both members of your team outed.

So I think BC outed because he can be caught by scan, which makes him the doctor.

Otherwise, he outed because he was going to be yeeted that day anyway, and had to make a sub optimal decision.

I can't really tell, so it is a guess on my part.
  #26  
Old 15th January 2022, 08:34 AM
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The purpose of expending all this effort trying to find the scum doc is so that Vanta doesn't miss and hit a townie, and doesnt miss and hit a protected scummo.

We know Morden can be a protected scummo here.

But the scum doctor cannot self protect. Therefore the top candidate for that role is the one Vanta should shoot.

Vanta could also guess wrong and hit Elf Shelf Godfather and that is also a successful hit.

I felt like I had sorted Mordenkainen's team correctly, but thats based on unpairing analysis. Sometimes that fails because scums remembered to play against unpairing analysis.

I did note when analyzing gnarlycharlie that he didnt looked paired with anyone who had died already.

Meaning, he should be Mariah faction.

BC is Mariah faction.

One of those two people got shot by Elf Shelf team last night a lot, otherwise they targeted Vanta when Vanta should be protected.

Why would Dizzy target either of those two names?

If you can answer that before Night Ends, you solve for the Godfather of Mariah faction.

Complicating matters, I had been all over Dizzy's slot all game long. Dizzy had every reason to shoot me if she thought I was a doctor.

She did not shoot me or I would be dead right now.

You only have my word on that. I can't prove it otherwise.
  #27  
Old 15th January 2022, 08:36 AM
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If Dizzy thought gnarlycharlie was the town doctor, or possibly an opposing scum she could actually pick off, then she shot Gnarly.

There would have been reason to think so from her position.

If Dizzy thought Bashorian Clement was the town doctor, or an opposing scum she could pick off, then she shot BC.

BC was not expending a ton of effort into solving during day, so its possible she thought he was a town doctor.

I dont know.

I just know if Vanta shoots between those two names, Vanta hits a scum, protected or not. And one of them isnt.
  #28  
Old 15th January 2022, 08:41 AM
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The way Pleonast played the game (chaotic evil, meaning, hurts the team whenever it backfires, is a hero whenever it works, and it rarely works) hurt my solve effort.

That's why I kept not being sure about him, and the circumstances of the murders last night were bizarre. Hard to see it.

So I settled on B, Pleonast was scum. Thought about it, and decided yeah, he would pull a stunt that ill advised. Thus I shifted a day before day ended.

Too late. Thats why I had zero game plan. I was solving it out and was confused.

If I was scum I'd have had a game plan that made any effing sense at all.
  #29  
Old 15th January 2022, 08:49 AM
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The solve is even harder from your perspective, SilverJan, or Vanta's.

You have all the same issues I had, plus, you don't know my alignment.

I do not blame either of you.

And Pleonast explained himself. I don't even really blame him. He also can't tell I am town, he can only tell his name wasn't correct in the 4 total that I guessed, and that I had been casing him hard all game. Whether that makes his gambit a good idea or not is beside the point.

However, Bashorian Clement voting for me to try to kill me is a mistake.

Because it proves that I am not on his team, because he is outed.

That was foolish.
  #30  
Old 15th January 2022, 08:53 AM
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Outed scum should never bus the not outed scum.

It's in my guide for a reason. BC has zero percent survival when I die if I were teamed with him. It wouldnt make him town even if I flipped guilty, which I don't.
  #31  
Old 15th January 2022, 09:13 AM
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I truly believe that BC just gave away the fact that I can't ever be the Mariah scum doctor.

Which means Vanta finally has a real reason not to shoot me tonight, even IF he thought I was scum, which I am not.
  #32  
Old 15th January 2022, 09:14 AM
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My 2 year old son says hi to everyone.

He's saying it into the telephone, but I am sure the sentiment is still appreciated.
  #33  
Old 15th January 2022, 09:18 AM
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[Me waving like a silly fool at Pizza's son. ]
  #34  
Old 15th January 2022, 09:24 AM
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Mahaloth 2

town and game host.
  #35  
Old 15th January 2022, 09:26 AM
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night is still "during day" for solving purposes.

scums literally arent trying to win "during day". At all. Even at actual LYLO, where Vanta has to shoot correctly or town loses.

Mord and BC and gnarly have had days and days to solve during day.

It's officially LYLO and none of them are trying, and have not been, for most of the game. They're not even trying to keep up appearances.

If you hear nothing else that I say, hear that.

They don't have to care. They win by shooting you.

And Gnarly is not actually inactive.
  #36  
Old 15th January 2022, 09:29 AM
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[Me waving like a silly fool at Pizza's son. ]
he is going to bed but infant daughter says iiiiiii.

She can make noises, not words.
  #37  
Old 15th January 2022, 09:34 AM
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n3 was 6th jan

so was 8th january. still n3, 2 hours before day
  #38  
Old 15th January 2022, 09:36 AM
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i can point to 3 scums not named pizza. 2 of them you can verify yourself. with your own eyes. the last one is mord who guessed both me and pleo are scum during his halfhearted addittion to day on d4.

thats 3/3.
  #39  
Old 15th January 2022, 09:42 AM
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Plankton gets to win the least honorable way ever if he is scum.

And Meeko gets to laugh at fooling the master of cold reading if he is scum.

I thought I saw code talking one night, with APSB. With the colors and whatnot.

But it was indecipherable. It wasn't meaningful or useful in my opinion, the colors dont match the factions, and one of those factions colors hadnt flipped yet, and the colors arent knowable before that.

So it wasnt even a color thing. I looked at Meeko, I didn't not do my diligence on Meeko.

If he is scum he fooled me, and if that's code, I couldnt unscramble it at all. It is therefore useless for the purposes of talking in code.

Everyone else is town. So I would have arrived here eventually anyway.

The point is, I was on two of those names all game during day because I was trying to kill them BEFORE Lylo, when it really would have mattered.
  #40  
Old 15th January 2022, 09:45 AM
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Sorry for missing a vote folks. I got called in for double shift today. We now have SEVEN suspected or confirmed Covid cases at my store.

Anyway, happy 2022 to all.
Shepherd, you wouldn't happen to be in hardware?

The question then, would become Orange, Blue, Red ... Or, as far as I can tell, Green with Yellow highlights? But then again, I'm an ex-orange blue, awash in Orange's stronghold. Which I believe also informs why we sell Pepsi but not Coke. So I could be off on what "Green" actually has as their official colors. I've never been in a green.
This?

I looked at that.

I still don't know what it means, but I think it refers to the colors of hardware stores, as written.

In other words, he is being ambiguous about his real life workplace.

Not being ambiguous about his team in this game. Plus the colors do not match.

So even when reading meeko all game looking for signs of scum with the assumption he is scum, I saw nothing.

Nothing.
  #41  
Old 15th January 2022, 09:47 AM
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That means he made no Team Moves.

He made not enough scumtells for me to ever think he is scum.

And he said to kill BC yesterday instead of Pleonast. Which means he's solving the game better than I am and is NOT aligned with BC.

And if he is Elf Shelf, he also made no moves that read scummy.

So he had to appear exactly like his normal brainwave, make zero scum moves, and do the amount of scumtells that townies do, not scums.

In order to fool me.

He gets that feather in his cap. I'd never ever vote him this game, ever.
  #42  
Old 15th January 2022, 10:14 AM
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My 2 year old son says hi to everyone.

He's saying it into the telephone, but I am sure the sentiment is still appreciated.
Hi son and daughter of pizza
  #43  
Old 15th January 2022, 10:17 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Meeko View Post

Shepherd, you wouldn't happen to be in hardware?

The question then, would become Orange, Blue, Red ... Or, as far as I can tell, Green with Yellow highlights? But then again, I'm an ex-orange blue, awash in Orange's stronghold. Which I believe also informs why we sell Pepsi but not Coke. So I could be off on what "Green" actually has as their official colors. I've never been in a green.
This?

I looked at that.

I still don't know what it means, but I think it refers to the colors of hardware stores, as written.

In other words, he is being ambiguous about his real life workplace.

Not being ambiguous about his team in this game. Plus the colors do not match.

So even when reading meeko all game looking for signs of scum with the assumption he is scum, I saw nothing.

Nothing.
You looked for a deeper meaning in that? I just thought that I much prefer coke over Pepsi and left it at that. Hidden meanings though because scum can't chat during the Day, I am impressed even though you found nothing.
  #44  
Old 15th January 2022, 10:19 AM
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Plankton gets to win the least honorable way ever if he is scum.

And Meeko gets to laugh at fooling the master of cold reading if he is scum.

I thought I saw code talking one night, with APSB. With the colors and whatnot.

But it was indecipherable. It wasn't meaningful or useful in my opinion, the colors dont match the factions, and one of those factions colors hadnt flipped yet, and the colors arent knowable before that.

So it wasnt even a color thing. I looked at Meeko, I didn't not do my diligence on Meeko.

If he is scum he fooled me, and if that's code, I couldnt unscramble it at all. It is therefore useless for the purposes of talking in code.

Everyone else is town. So I would have arrived here eventually anyway.

The point is, I was on two of those names all game during day because I was trying to kill them BEFORE Lylo, when it really would have mattered.
I don't know why SP hasn't been either mod killed or subbed but it does hinder the game when a player doesn't play at all. Surely you can't forget totally that you signed up for a game, perhaps something is wrong?
  #45  
Old 15th January 2022, 10:25 AM
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i can point to 3 scums not named pizza. 2 of them you can verify yourself. with your own eyes. the last one is mord who guessed both me and pleo are scum during his halfhearted addittion to day on d4.

thats 3/3.
I haven't gone back to reread that but it's a good point.

I wish I had more time in this game and that I could protect both Vanta and Prof. I am scared that there will be 3 Town deaths toNight because I think we will lose.

Sorry Vanta, it's up to you again You have done so well apart from N1 but that's excusable.
  #46  
Old 15th January 2022, 10:42 AM
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I don't know why SP hasn't been either mod killed or subbed but it does hinder the game when a player doesn't play at all. Surely you can't forget totally that you signed up for a game, perhaps something is wrong?
I do hope nothing is wrong with him in his IRL situation. This game is meaningless compared to that if it is.

The assumption is that its innocent absence. He can't verbally defend himself in game.

I would only conclude he was guilty if I concluded enough people outside of his body are innocent, and I was never close to being able to do that this game.

Plus, everyone who called for him to die by vig was suspect as hell.
  #47  
Old 15th January 2022, 10:56 AM
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I wish I had more time in this game and that I could protect both Vanta and Prof. I am scared that there will be 3 Town deaths toNight because I think we will lose.
We are missing a Day 6 because we are down 1 inactive townie, in my guesswork. The Day 6 isn't viable, we can't outvote a scum there, because I dont think SP comes back.

I have BC locked in, I think correctly, as Mariah. The final scum on Elf Shelf couldnt even pretend to be Mariah because town often Duh-yeets someone claiming to be Mariah. (Often... but not always)

So BC's faction has 2 hit points, and he is playing around that fact.

I looked into drawing the kill to himself deliberately, but here is the thing, Mordenkainen was scanned innocent so Mord cannot be the Mariah scum doc.

So I have BC's alignment correct and Mordenkainen's role correct, but not his alignment for sure.

If I knew Mord's alignment for sure, I could say it is always correct to murder X name and Y name.

Because I can't really prove Gnarly isn't the Mariah scum doctor. He was the only other name for that role in my list. Meeko was scanned, Mord was scanned, and SP couldnt do the protection because he has been inactive since d1.

But I had Mordenkainen as a certain team by cold read, and gnarlycharlie as the other team by cold read, due to partner interactions.

The thing is, it banks the entire game on reading those partner interactions correctly, and this game more than any other, scums want to not look partnered.

I can't say with absolute certainty its one way or the other, but gnarly did not look aligned with the dead Elf faction members, and Guiri was interested in killing off people who killed off Archangel.

So was I, and Meeko, and Dizzy the first, but I think all of those are town.

The odd one out is Guiri, who became gnarly.

So I think that makes gnarly Mariah aligned.

I have been calling for gnarly to be scanned by Prof P for a while, but the reaction to that was for BC to try to kill me, and for Gnarly to do nothing except at night.

I thiiiink that means Gnarly cannot be scanned guilty, because Prof would have all the reason in the world to scan him if he does nothing and people are calling for him to be scanned.

You dont want Gnarly to be scanned guilty after BC is the yeet on Day Four.

Thats my analysis which is why I think BC is always the Mariah Scum Doctor specifically, and he isnt trying to draw the murder to himself.

Gnarly would continue to be protected at night if Gnarly is Mariah.

Doing nothing draws the vig a lot, and draws the scan a lot. Gnarly is protected from both, which would explain why he didnt try to affect the outcome during Day, even less than BC did.
  #48  
Old 15th January 2022, 11:00 AM
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If my analysis is correct then Mordenkainen is also vulnerable at night, but only when my analysis of the teams is exactly correct.

The two correct shots are therefore BC and Mordenkainen, but BC is probably not physically prevented from protecting a member of a different faction.

Which means the correct shot is BC, then you yeet Gnarly in the morning, and shoot Mordenkainen on N5, wins the game.

The alternative is that I am scum and I like to draw the aggression of the opposing team, am the final elf Shelf member, and I want to be shot ever so badly and lose for my faction from the town vig shooting me or the Mariah faction shooting me out of spite or nearly yeeting me, because I want even more people besides townies to suspect me and have reason to vote for me.

(shrug)

I dont think that wins, and I dont think that wins even when it looks like it doesnt win, which is the calculus I've always used for all my gambits as scum.

It doesnt look like it wins, because it does lose.
  #49  
Old 15th January 2022, 12:08 PM
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You know it took me this long to even think of it because my brain is in solving for 3 scums mode:

But BC outed to try to work with Elf Faction, after I already tried to kill him Day 4 and said I would bet my head he is scum.

From that, you can also tell that BC does not think I am Elf Faction either.

And he tried to yeet me after outing himself.

From that, you can tell that BC doesnt think I am Elf faction or his surviving teammate in mariah faction.

And he is outed.

So he has basically told you he is scum and that I am neither his teammate NOR his Elf temporary ally. All in his own actions, words, posts, and votes.
  #50  
Old 15th January 2022, 12:10 PM
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I've been too busy trying to make sure he is exactly the correct shot of the three scums to really focus much on my own defense.

But it was there all along, ever since Day ended. It literally hadnt even occurred to me until just now.

I know I am town, but thats the evidence that shows you folks who don't know I am town what the deal is here.

BC was NOT trying to work with me yesterday after I bet my head he flips guilty that day.

He was NOT trying to yeet his only surviving partner after he literally outed himself to do the above with Elf faction.

The mistake is even bigger than I originally spotted. It means he proved me innocent.
 


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