COVID-19

[SmartAleq]

Huh, so why did we and do we vax against smallpox and polio and measles? I mean, shouldn't we just let THOSE run rampant until they mutate into a harmless form? Oh right, because they NEVER HAVE and we think it's irresponsible and irrational to essay the experiment.

[Sputnik]

Was there an equal fuss when the Polio vaccine was released? When was the last time you heard of a Polio epidemic?

[fucktard loser]

nm

[Inna Minnit]

Maybe we *don't* but I have the scar from it.

[fucktard loser]

I am a stupid idiot and have nothing useful to contribute.

[3acres]

Originally Posted by Inna Minnit

Maybe we *don't* but I have the scar from it.

You can barely see my smallpox vaccine scar - you have to know where to look.

[Solfy]

We don't vaccinate for the common cold because a) they don't tend to kill people b) there are a hecking lot of different viruses that make up what we term "the cold," and c) most of them mutate crazy fast. I'd certainly be interested in getting a vaccine for it if such a thing were feasible and the risks were sufficiently low enough. There are still plenty of irresponsible and irrational people willing to experiment with measles. Even before the pandemic there were a disturbing number of people NOT vaccinating for it, accompanied by the consequent pockets of measles outbreaks.

Speaking more generally, there's a myth regarding mutation/evolution in general that I see frequently in online discussions (not here, mostly reddit). People tend to believe that organisms evolve purposefully in ways that benefit them. They don't, the changes are random. But when we see the changes that benefit a species and don't see the neutral or negative changes (because survival of the fittest has wiped them out), it makes evolution look "smarter" than it is. So I can see how that translates into people believing certain things about likely COVID mutations.

While the polio vaccine was met with enthusiasm, presumably because of the severity of the illness, there were a few dissenting voices. But when they started pushing for the smallpox and measles vaccines, people pushed back and have been pushing ever since.
"As the 1960s began, health officials assumed parents would greet new vaccines with the same enthusiasm they had shown for the first polio vaccine. But they were wrong. Families long accustomed to living with measles, for example, shrugged off the new vaccine against the disease. Middle-class parents tended to get it for their children if the family doctor recommended it, but not all doctors did. A chasm in infection rates opened up between lower-class families and middle- and upper-class families. And as health officials tried one promotional tactic after another without success, they ultimately returned to coercion, endorsing state policies that made the new vaccines a prerequisite for all children to enroll in school."

Interesting intersection here: for a virus to be successful, it needs to infect as many hosts as possible. Viruses like ebola are easier to contain because they kill the host faster than the host can spread it to others. At the same time, people are more willing to be vaccinated to protect from something that is unambiguously a danger (e.g. polio). Based on that, I could think of COVID as a virus fabulously good at spreading, dangerous enough to kill way too many people (IMO), but not dangerous enough to make people willing to protect the general populace and shut it down.

[Inna Minnit]

I asked one of the docs I work with why there are no vaccines for the common cold. Her answer is that there are over 200 viruses that we call "the common cold."

[SmartAleq]

I have TWO smallpox vaxx scars, one on each arm. *preens* While the first one was healing I scraped the site on the side of a swimming pool and just to make sure it took they did it again on the other arm. They're both super faint now though.

And yeah, rhinoviruses, adenoviruses, coronaviruses--they're all responsible for what we call "the common cold." If it WAS just one virus then yeah, we'd have vaxxed for that long and long ago but no. They mutate too, just like flu viruses do and the flu shot is always something of a crapshoot, since WHO gets together and plans what strains they think are the biggest problem and should be included in this year's shot. If they guess wrong, oops.

[C2H5OH]

Originally Posted by Solfy

...

I know it's not inevitable, but I hold out hope that it's at least possible. And it doesn't preclude those less lethal potential future mutations from mutating again back to more lethal. In the same way there are definitely more-lethal and less-lethal flu strains. I hope SARS-Cov-2 winds up like the flu variant from the 1918 pandemic - one for the history books that mutates itself into obscurity even though it's still technically with us.

Not encouraged by what I heard last week about white tailed deer being a potential reservoir. Even in a fantasy world where we could get all the humans to vaccinate, zoonotic reservoirs are an ugly prospect. (zombie minks notwithstanding) We've gotten too comfortable with the idea that we can control all infectious diseases just because we can manage some. The past two years have proven otherwise.

Actually, it IS an inevitable process. I've run, and even written a few Genetic Algorithm simulations, on exactly this type of thing. The problem is that it takes an order or two of magnitude of generations for each species to adapt to the other. The virus has a generation of about 20 hours. Us humans have a generation of about twenty years. That means 'expect it to happen in somewhere between 400 and 4000 years'. It's not something you can expect on Donald Trump's timetable Monday. It WILL happen, but it's gonna take a lot longer than you, or your great-great-grandchildren have to live. Spanish Flu was a lucky break in the mutation cycle. Don't expect that, again. But it inevitably will. It's how evolution works.

If COVID doesn't kill us off, first.

[Solfy]

By inevitable you mean that either humans or COVID will win? That explains why we’re still fighting H1N1 variants 100yrs after the “Spanish” flu and why we aren’t currently subjected to every single virus since the dawn of humans.

But it’s still dangerous for people to get it into their heads that we can just wait for it to mutate itself into being benign.

[BJMoose]

After all, the original version of COVID-19 was just a variant of something else.

[Solfy]

Called it: MIL has COVID. Fortunately she’s vaccinated. Unfortunately she’s 80yrs old, overweight, and has heart trouble. She’s doing okay so far but I’ve heard too many stories of people taking a turn for the worse to be relieved yet.

[C2H5OH]

Originally Posted by Solfy

By inevitable you mean that either humans or COVID will win? That explains why we’re still fighting H1N1 variants 100yrs after the “Spanish” flu and why we aren’t currently subjected to every single virus since the dawn of humans.

But it’s still dangerous for people to get it into their heads that we can just wait for it to mutate itself into being benign.

It works like this:

Species A kills off species B, species B kills off species A, or C they evolve to co-exist. It can't happen in any other way. When Syphilis got introduced into the European population, it took hundreds of years before it became (kinda) benign. When European diseases got introduced into the Americas, they killed off 95% of the natives. It took several hundred years for that to shake out. Yeah, we CAN just wait for it to happen. If you have a few hundred years to wait. If it don't kill us, and we don't kill it, we will evolve (in a few hundred years) for it not to matter. Much.

Or:

Anyone who wants to wait for that to happen is going to be waiting a few hundred years. It will happen (if our two species don't kill each other off) but it ain't gonna happen soon. For very long lengths of time one is willing to call 'soon'. As I said, it ain't gonna happen in your great-grandkid's time. But, yeah, it'll be soon. It might actually happen in a mere 400 years...

ETA: I won't be around to have to answer for these predictions in 400 years, so take 'em for what you will...

[Solfy]

Which makes the “if COVID doesn’t kill us first” bit really relevant to the people Saucerian was referencing. They think it’s a given that near-term mutations will be more benign. They could just as easily be more lethal and we could reenact “The Stand.” (which I never managed to slog all the way through)
Not trying to be alarmist. I don’t work for the media.

[JackieLikesVariety]

Originally Posted by Solfy

Called it: MIL has COVID. Fortunately she’s vaccinated. Unfortunately she’s 80yrs old, overweight, and has heart trouble. She’s doing okay so far but I’ve heard too many stories of people taking a turn for the worse to be relieved yet.

I hope she continues OK, Solfy.

[BJMoose]

Originally Posted by fucktard loser

I am a stupid idiot and have nothing useful to contribute.

That never stopped the rest of us.

[Zeener Diode]

Originally Posted by Solfy

Which makes the “if COVID doesn’t kill us first” bit really relevant to the people Saucerian was referencing. They think it’s a given that near-term mutations will be more benign. They could just as easily be more lethal and we could reenact “The Stand.” (which I never managed to slog all the way through)
Not trying to be alarmist. I don’t work for the media.

M-O-O-N, that spells "get yer damn shots!"

[Flying Squid with Goggles]

Originally Posted by C2H5OH

Actually, it IS an inevitable process. I've run, and even written a few Genetic Algorithm simulations, on exactly this type of thing. The problem is that it takes an order or two of magnitude of generations for each species to adapt to the other.

That's not actually the problem. It's easy to create a simulation that conforms to:

pathogen of high virulence kills hosts
deaths of hosts reduce transmission of pathogen
variants of pathogen with lower virulence outcompete higher virulence in population


The problem is that both the axioms in orange don't actually survive contact with the real world (and, in many cases even the theoretical world resists them)


I mentioned myxoma virus in rabbits earlier, and it’s one of the reasons we have the myth you mentioned, that evolution towards optimal lower virulence is always happening - but the narrative that developed forty years ago as a result of myxoma virus work is not the end of the work:

The work showed that the original highly lethal strain, with a case fatality rate (CFR) of close to 100%, was rapidly replaced by strains with case fatality rates of 70–95% or lower, and sometimes even less than 50%. Fenner and colleagues then went on to show that this attenuation was favored by natural selection because, by killing hosts so rapidly, highly virulent viruses had shorter infectious periods than more attenuated strains, which did not kill so rapidly (6–10). This work became the bedrock of the mathematical theory of virulence evolution developed in the 1980s (11–19), and it remains so because the combination of temporal field sampling and controlled experimentation demonstrating the relevant trade-offs is unique for a disease of vertebrates.
However, the story did not end with virulence declines. Genetic resistance rapidly evolved in the rabbit population, demonstrated by testing field-caught rabbits with a standard virus. For instance, a viral strain that once killed 90% of rabbits caught at Lake Urana was killing only 26% of rabbits caught at the same location 7 y later (20, 21). This increase in host resistance apparently halted and then changed the direction of viral evolution because viral lethality began to climb, although with extensive regional variation and frequent changes in virulence grade across the MYXV phylogeny (22). Most notably, strains with case fatality rates of less than 50% became extremely rare. More virulent viruses likely have longer infectious periods in resistant rabbits because they are less readily controlled by innate and adaptive immune responses (23, 24). Highly virulent and immunosuppressive viruses can overcome genetic resistance, indicating this evolutionary pathway is open to the virus (25, 26).

(Bolding added)

From: Kerr et al. 2017. Virulence phenotype of Australian isolates of myxoma virus. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, v. 114(35): 9397-9402



And that’s not just true in animals, in the 2013-2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, the Ebola virus became better at penetrating human cells through simple substitutions in its glycoprotein with no trade-off against virulence:

Hence, most, if not all, animal variants of EBOV have the ability to effectively transmit among humans such that host adaptation is not a pre-requisite for future outbreaks. Similarly, it is impossible on current data to determine whether and how the amino acid substitutions observed in the EBOV Makona genome might have impacted pathogen virulence. However, because there is a strong positive correlation between EBOV viremia and mortality (Faye et al., 2015; Fitzpatrick et al., 2015; Schieffelin et al., 2014), increased transmissibility could conceivably result in viruses of enhanced virulence, although this clearly needs to be addressed with additional studies.

(Bolding added)

From: Urbanowicz et al. 2016. Human adaptation of Ebola virus during the West African outbreak. Cell v. 167: 1079-1087



A good overview of the challenges to the simplistic "lower virulence is optimal for the virus" hypothesis can be found in Ebert and Bull, 2003. Challenging the trade-off model for the evolution of virulence: is virulence management feasible? Trends in Microbiology, v. 11(1):15-20

Quoting their paper:

For example, the foundation of virulence management is that virulence will evolve in response to indirect selection: changes in opportunities for parasite transmission will select changes in virulence. However, this field has not confronted a basic difficulty with indirect selection. In quantitative genetics terms, indirect selection attempts to generate a response in trait X (virulence) to selection for the correlated trait Y (transmission). If the genetic regression between them is low (i.e. a noisy or shallow trade-off), the response of X to selection on Y will be slow and small in magnitude – in the right direction but not necessarily useful for the short timescale of virulence management [19]. The models do not address the crucial importance of the covariance between virulence and transmission. Third, a trade-off does not necessarily lead to a virulence optimum. The trade-off function has to be saturating, that is, virulence increases more rapidly than transmission rate. In the basic trade-off model, linear or accelerating trade-off functions would not lead to intermediate levels of virulence. This condition for the existence of a virulence optimum has rarely been noted nor been supported with empirical data.

(Bolding added)

You mention the timescale problem in the first bolded sentence, but not the third objection, that the slope of the trade-off function matters. Another assumption they find highly questionable that I haven't put in the quote is the unstated assumption that virulence depends on the virus, and not the host. Highly variable responses to the same strain of virus counter that assumption.

It WILL happen, but it's gonna take a lot longer than you, or your great-great-grandchildren have to live. Spanish Flu was a lucky break in the mutation cycle. Don't expect that, again. But it inevitably will. It's how evolution works.

If COVID doesn't kill us off, first.

It's not just going to happen no matter how many capital letters are in 'will,' and it's not inevitable.

[Flying Squid with Goggles]

Originally Posted by Solfy

Called it: MIL has COVID. Fortunately she’s vaccinated. Unfortunately she’s 80yrs old, overweight, and has heart trouble. She’s doing okay so far but I’ve heard too many stories of people taking a turn for the worse to be relieved yet.

Jeez, best wishes for your MIL, Solfy

Sending her all the best thoughts & hopes

[teela brown]

Welp, omicron is here, and of course it's in California. It was only a matter of time.

I'm sorry about your MIL, Solfy, and hope she fights it off.

[Solfy]

Thanks, all. The neighbor checked on MIL today and called SIL to come take care of her. They were worried she’s dehydrated so she’s at the ER being taken care of. No word if they’re keeping her yet but at this point I would think they are, assuming they have space. While it’s concerning that she needed care, I’m super glad she’s getting it.

[Jaglavak]

Originally Posted by teela brown

Welp, omicron is here

You know, I've always wanted to learn a foreign language. But not by memorizing hazardous virii.

[Flying Squid with Goggles]

Originally Posted by Solfy

Thanks, all. The neighbor checked on MIL today and called SIL to come take care of her. They were worried she’s dehydrated so she’s at the ER being taken care of. No word if they’re keeping her yet but at this point I would think they are, assuming they have space. While it’s concerning that she needed care, I’m super glad she’s getting it.

Wishing her the best - this must be a very hard time for your spouse, I hope they're OK through this too.

[Solfy]

He seems confident that she'll be okay, and I don't think it's a brave front. We agreed it would be significantly more concerning if she hadn't been fully vaccinated. We're grateful for cellphones that make staying in touch easier, especially considering no one was allowed to accompany MIL at the hospital. SIL lives fairly close to MIL so is serving as the main point of contact for now.

[Sputnik]

Hope all works out for your MIL Solfy.

In other news...

Originally Posted by CNN

Christian television network founder and preacher Marcus Lamb, who discouraged vaccinations, dies after being hospitalized for Covid-19

God can't do what a vaccination does apparently.

[MsWisher]

On one hand numbers are rising in Ontario again. On the other hand this means they've increased the group qualifying for boosters to include me.

I'm pretty isolated and thus at a fairly low risk BUT i'm still pretty happy about being able to get the extra vaccine. The timing is going to be tight but I'm going to try and get it day 1 for my age group (Dec 15th) as I'm spending the 17-19 with the inlaws celebrating their anniversary and then the evening of the 19th at a craft fair interacting with the masked, double vaxxed only crowd. Still really pushing my comfort zone though.

[Vinyl Turnip]

Originally Posted by Sputnik

Hope all works out for your MIL Solfy.

In other news...

God can't do what a vaccination does apparently.

"I sent you two boats and a helicopter..."

[Rat Diva]

I just scheduled my booster for next Friday

I have to wrap up my whole year by Jan. 10 2022 and I can't do that if I'm fighting off obnoxious Greek letters

[Solfy]

MIL update: They didn't keep her at the hospital last night. Sent her home with an inhaler (of what I have no idea) and some cough syrup. No instructions on when to use either, and the cough syrup is only two days' worth. SIL had to read through discharge papers to figure out dosing. She's disgruntled at the lack of communication from the hospital, but MIL isn't her sharpest at the moment so I can't say for certain the failure was definitely on the hospital's part. They had her on O2 at the hospital but only got her oxygen up from 91 to 92. She says she can't get it over 88 at home, don't know what she's reading it on.
None of this is good, all of it could be worse, most we can do for now is keep an eye on her.

I nagged Husband until he scheduled his booster for the 12th. The big girls can't get theirs yet because they're under 18, though that changes for Eldest next month. (OMG I can't believe my baby is turning 18. . . )

[asahi]

Get boosters.

You can also improve your odds with some supplementation, particularly making sure that vitamin D levels are good. I take about 5,000-10,000 IUs of vitamin D3 daily.

[MsWisher]

I just read the details of the release. My age group but at least 6 months after your second dose. So I’m not eligible until Jan 7th. Blech. I’ll be back in my cave by then ignoring the world for a couple months. I’ll still get it, but it feels less useful after the crazy holiday season.

[JackieLikesVariety]

She says she can't get it over 88 at home, don't know what she's reading it on.

she must have a pulse-ox, why wouldn't she? I hope she told her doctor she can't get over 88, I assume that means including whatever is in her inhaler.

[Solfy]

Originally Posted by JackieLikesVariety

she must have a pulse-ox, why wouldn't she? I hope she told her doctor she can't get over 88, I assume that means including whatever is in her inhaler.

That's what I said, but Husband wasn't sure. I don't know where else she'd be getting a number like that, and it's common enough to have one in the house these days. When my asthmatic friend had a bad bout of COVID, his wife was warned to ping the doctor if his fell below 90 (IIRC). It did, and he wound up hospitalized for five days.

When SIL arrived to take MIL to the hospital on Wednesday she had no clean clothes and two weeks of laundry piled up, but then she'd been sick for a week at that point. She also had a pile of unpaid bills on the counter. This is really unlike MIL and also has us concerned. I think there are things beyond COVID to keep an eye on here, and I hope we don't fall into the same pattern of "pretend nothing is wrong until something is really very wrong" that we went through with SFIL this past year.

[Detroit Hoser]

An spO2 of 88% is right at the cusp of where docs will start to freak so this isn't something to mess with -- BUT -- if she's usually normalized at 97-100% on room air and she's been down to at least 91 or 92% for several days, she may be confused about the proper way to use the pulse-ox. I really hope that's what it is, anyway. Tell her to take her nail polish off if she's wearing any AND TO CALL HER DOCTOR.

[JackieLikesVariety]

of course, nobody should be giving/taking medical advice here - and yet I will tell you that sometimes when people have been on O2 their brain gets lazy and doesn't work as hard at breathing. the point is, you can often bring the O2 saturation up just by having them breathe OUT longer. it makes room to then breathe more IN.

When SIL arrived to take MIL to the hospital on Wednesday she had no clean clothes and two weeks of laundry piled up, but then she'd been sick for a week at that point. She also had a pile of unpaid bills on the counter. This is really unlike MIL and also has us concerned. I think there are things beyond COVID to keep an eye on here, and I hope we don't fall into the same pattern of "pretend nothing is wrong until something is really very wrong" that we went through with SFIL this past year.

at least you are paying attention! but health problems can snowball, that's for damn sure.

[Inna Minnit]

Originally Posted by JackieLikesVariety

of course, nobody should be giving/taking medical advice here - and yet I will tell you that sometimes when people have been on O2 their brain gets lazy and doesn't work as hard at breathing. the point is, you can often bring the O2 saturation up just by having them breathe OUT longer. it makes room to then breathe more IN.

It is important to make sure your doctor knows what's going on. If a person has COPD sometimes they are supposed to be in the 80s, it has something to do with if they are in the 90s where most people are supposed to be, it kills their breath drive. I don't really understand it.

Speaking of pulse oximeters, everyone should have one these days. I got mine on walmart online for like $8.

https://www.walmart.com/search?q=pul...&cat_id=976760

[Solfy]

MIL’s back in the hospital. Called an ambulance last night. O2 was low and she’s dehydrated.

So glad her child and grandchild stood up for their rights not to vaccinate.

[asahi]

Originally Posted by Solfy

MIL’s back in the hospital. Called an ambulance last night. O2 was low and she’s dehydrated.

So glad her child and grandchild stood up for their rights not to vaccinate.

I feel for your spouse and hoping MIL comes through

[SmartAleq]

As soon as they declared the pandemic, I went online and bought a thermometer (could NOT find my old one for love nor money) and a pulse oximeter. I consider an oximeter to be absolutely rock bottom necessary home first aid equipment. I also have an automated blood pressure cuff but that's just me.

Sorry the MIL is having troubles and her family needs spanked with a chainsaw. So irresponsible!

[3acres]

I'm sorry to hear about your mother in law, Solfy. It's good they had a bed for her at the hospital - that's not a sure thing these days. Hopefully they'll be able to help her recover.

[What Exit?]

I just got my booster.
Moderna 1/2 dose this time.
Pfizer for the first two.

[Rat Diva]

Originally Posted by Solfy

MIL’s back in the hospital. Called an ambulance last night. O2 was low and she’s dehydrated.

So glad her child and grandchild stood up for their rights not to vaccinate.

Normally I don't care when people choose to do stupid shit that puts their lives in danger, but these people who won't get it through their skulls that their "FREE CHOICE BECAUSE MURRICA!" are putting vulnerable populations at risk just make me wrathy.

[Solfy]

I can’t prove that they gave MIL COVID, but a few days before she came down with it they all went out to dinner together for SIL’s birthday. Even if they weren’t the source, their attitudes and those who share them ARE directly responsible.

I doubt they see it that way though. Probably total coincidence. God’s will. Whatever.

[Farad'n]

Originally Posted by SmartAleq

As soon as they declared the pandemic, I went online and bought a thermometer (could NOT find my old one for love nor money) and a pulse oximeter. I consider an oximeter to be absolutely rock bottom necessary home first aid equipment.

I did the same thing. A few weeks after I got it, my mother-in-law (who stays with us) started having breathing difficulties. Her SPO2 was jumping around a lot but sometimes went down into the 50s! We knew we had to get her to the hospital right away. It was congestive heart failure. The oximeter may have saved her life.

[C2H5OH]

Originally Posted by Weedy Crocker

An spO2 of 88% is right at the cusp of where docs will start to freak so this isn't something to mess with -- BUT -- if she's usually normalized at 97-100% on room air and she's been down to at least 91 or 92% for several days, she may be confused about the proper way to use the pulse-ox. I really hope that's what it is, anyway. Tell her to take her nail polish off if she's wearing any AND TO CALL HER DOCTOR.

Be careful about how you use them. I just used mine and got 77. OMG! Reseated it on my finger and got 99. <sigh of relief>

[Bashorian Clement]

The sister of my sister-in-law (not on the same side of the family that I mentioned previously) died this week of covid-related pneumonia. No idea whether she was vaccinated. I didn't really know her. I think I may have in high school, but I don't recall. She couldn't have been older than 47 or 48. Thought it was notable enough to mention.

(no need to give sympathies or anything; like I said I didn't know her)

[Solfy]

Every preventable death is unfortunate.

MIL is home and on oxygen. Husband was surprised to hear she spent the night on a cot in the hallway at the hospital. I was not. Last I heard that county was only 60% vaccinated. The hospital is slammed.

[Detroit Hoser]

Originally Posted by C2H5OH

Be careful about how you use them. I just used mine and got 77. OMG! Reseated it on my finger and got 99. <sigh of relief>

OMG YOU DIED AND CAME BACK TO LIFE


'Sup, Jesus?

[thorny locust]

Originally Posted by Weedy Crocker

OMG YOU DIED AND CAME BACK TO LIFE

Mine occasionally tells me I've got no pulse.

(If I leave it on another minute, so far it's always changed its mind. Ditto for the occasional shockingly low oxygen reading.)