Yeetmas 4 - Day 3 "Christmas and Beyond"

[raventhief]

Originally Posted by Renata

STOP THINKING PIZZA WONT SCUM READ HIS PARTNERS good lord. I’m going to have a hernia. This is the player who preaches the gospel of hard bussing every chance he gets, who argues that it is always the right play, and you want me to believe he put neither of his partners in his scum reads? Not even that it’s possible he townread both, but that he must have?

I wouldn’t even be surprised if his partner was Texcat, let alone anyone else in that bunch.

I really don't get the ... Vigor? Of this post. Why have a hernia as a reaction to the idea that the third Mariah is in teal to red? When you seen to think the same thing?

[A Poor Shepherd Boy]

Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement

I haven't had any scum pings from either Tex or Shep, but this is the right play mechanically I think.





I will go back to voting Burma Shave if there is will to wrap there.

These are the only three I'm interested in right now.

I understand you might vote me for not being around. That would be valid. But what does the right play mechanically mean? What will my flip indicate to you because I already know my flip and it has not helped me deal with the Day 1 spew.

Others sorry for my lack of play but tis the season. I should have time Tuesday evening and Wednesday evening to try and catch up and at least make a showing.

[raventhief]

Originally Posted by Red Skeezix

Current reads/summaries:

Mendie Taoma - town - posts all just scream town to my ears.
Kaiveran - town- claimed cop, no counter claim - hasn't said a whole lot, but has promised to write up.

A Poor Shepherd Boy - town read - makes a vote and then does an about face - doesn't feel like scum move for d1 - just feels too risky.

Pleonast - town read. Hasn't really claimed anything. Just unclaimed some stuff. hasn't come back to play much, but (I think) they don't really play on weekends. I disagree with vig strategy, but do I think scum would advocate a vig to sit tight most of the game? probably not.

Askthepizzaguy - scum - continues to clog up the airwaves with inconsequential meta, and a case whose foundations lay in other games and other places, with hand waving about how he knows the guiri is scum because guiri doesn't post like this when they are town. (I wonder did scum out scum here? because guiri does seem to be snared) A ton of chaff posting, reads like heavy distraction/ trying to control the flow of the discussion as well, he is ringing all my alarm bells.

Halfrize - scum - Posted suggestion that we should all state who we think the PRs should be targetting -reads like "Helpful Townie" - feels like safe posting, Biggest red flag: says "My mind tells me that pizza is scum but my gut says otherwise. I don’t think I want this big of a wagon on them yet especially if I am yet to decide" - why wouldn't you want to vote for scum? you don't want to vote for who you think might be scum because other people are voting for them? followed up by a lurk vote later.

Bashorian Clement - scum - 9 posts are padding. early D1 vote, could be vote parking. Asking questions, saying nothing. Felt the need to say things like "Well barring a counterclaim Kaiveran goes to the top of the town pile." Easy scum D1 play. Park a vote and participate without saying enough to make a mistake.

Swammerdami - scum - one post with a vote. Even mentions needing to pad out their post count. Obviously very aware of the lack of posting, maybe feeling pressure not to get caught out lurking. Will revisit once i see more posts.

guiri - slightly scummy read. Was feeling townish earlier, but seems to have maybe stepped on a landmine and cant escape it. Not sure if it's survival or just not wanting to engage with pizza at this point.


Renata - neutral - i'm not following their logic in places but i'm also not reading it as scummy

below neutral - havent stuck out, haven't reread yet. will do tomorrow
mikomiya
raventhief
JackieLikesVariety

No read - below
Dizzymrslizzy
gnarlycharlie
Burma Shave
Texcat
Lightfoot

We had Pizza's read list posted here, I wanted to look at Red's.

[JackieLikesVariety]

OK, if Red said:

A Poor Shepherd Boy - town read - makes a vote and then does an about face - doesn't feel like scum move for d1 - just feels too risky.

he's protecting A Poor Shepherd Boy.

everything Red posted is suspect, isn't it?

[raventhief]

Originally Posted by Red Skeezix

Current reads/summaries:

Mendie Taoma - town - posts all just scream town to my ears.
Kaiveran - town- claimed cop, no counter claim - hasn't said a whole lot, but has promised to write up.

A Poor Shepherd Boy - town read - makes a vote and then does an about face - doesn't feel like scum move for d1 - just feels too risky.

Pleonast - town read. Hasn't really claimed anything. Just unclaimed some stuff. hasn't come back to play much, but (I think) they don't really play on weekends. I disagree with vig strategy, but do I think scum would advocate a vig to sit tight most of the game? probably not.

Askthepizzaguy - scum - continues to clog up the airwaves with inconsequential meta, and a case whose foundations lay in other games and other places, with hand waving about how he knows the guiri is scum because guiri doesn't post like this when they are town. (I wonder did scum out scum here? because guiri does seem to be snared) A ton of chaff posting, reads like heavy distraction/ trying to control the flow of the discussion as well, he is ringing all my alarm bells.

Halfrize - scum - Posted suggestion that we should all state who we think the PRs should be targetting -reads like "Helpful Townie" - feels like safe posting, Biggest red flag: says "My mind tells me that pizza is scum but my gut says otherwise. I don’t think I want this big of a wagon on them yet especially if I am yet to decide" - why wouldn't you want to vote for scum? you don't want to vote for who you think might be scum because other people are voting for them? followed up by a lurk vote later.

Bashorian Clement - scum - 9 posts are padding. early D1 vote, could be vote parking. Asking questions, saying nothing. Felt the need to say things like "Well barring a counterclaim Kaiveran goes to the top of the town pile." Easy scum D1 play. Park a vote and participate without saying enough to make a mistake.

Swammerdami - scum - one post with a vote. Even mentions needing to pad out their post count. Obviously very aware of the lack of posting, maybe feeling pressure not to get caught out lurking. Will revisit once i see more posts.

guiri - slightly scummy read. Was feeling townish earlier, but seems to have maybe stepped on a landmine and cant escape it. Not sure if it's survival or just not wanting to engage with pizza at this point.


Renata - neutral - i'm not following their logic in places but i'm also not reading it as scummy

below neutral - havent stuck out, haven't reread yet. will do tomorrow
mikomiya
raventhief
JackieLikesVariety

No read - below
Dizzymrslizzy
gnarlycharlie
Burma Shave
Texcat
Lightfoot

Let's try it with color.

[raventhief]

Originally Posted by JackieLikesVariety

OK, if Red said:

he's protecting A Poor Shepherd Boy.

everything Red posted is suspect, isn't it?

Oh yeah. It's all suspect, but worth looking at in light of his flip.

[Renata]

Originally Posted by raventhief

I really don't get the ... Vigor? Of this post. Why have a hernia as a reaction to the idea that the third Mariah is in teal to red? When you seen to think the same thing?

It's not that post specifically, it's the drift I've seen over and over since day two from at least three or four different people along the lines of "well X is looking town since they voted for Pizza" and variants thereof. Stop it please. It's not going to find the untouched other scum team at all and it's as likely or not to be completely backwards for the Mariah godfather.

[Renata]

Originally Posted by JackieLikesVariety

OK, if Red said:

he's protecting A Poor Shepherd Boy.

everything Red posted is suspect, isn't it?

I'd agree that if there's anyone in there at Red Skeezix is faking a town read on, it's APSB.

[Dizzymrslizzy]

I still don’t really feel comfortable with Miko. But Swammi is just jumping from one candidate to the next with very little reasoning.

[Mendie Taoma]

Originally Posted by Burma Shave

Tried to find this question No no no Didn't see a hint of it HO HO HO

I mean, again, I admit I'm not the most active person in the game [for once] and that, I am catching where and how [now] I can.

But, I'm not aware that I had unfinished business.

So, if Burma is stating that the couldn't find the question on my behalf, then I second the notion. [Or do I first it? Third?]

[Mendie Taoma]

Originally Posted by JackieLikesVariety

How/why do people get wrapped at night???

Perhaps you should have asked "Why do some people get pinged?"

Bashorian I think I added on to yours, that I was ... aware that I could possibly be giving Jackie preferential treatment, because they are new to Mafia.

Obviously, I think this is moot, at present.

[JackieLikesVariety]

OK, since Red was absolutely sure she was town - first on the list*, in fact

vote Mendie Taoma



*and then Kai, A Poor Shepard Boy, and then Pleo.

[Swammerdami]

Originally Posted by JackieLikesVariety

OK, since Red was absolutely sure she was town - first on the list*, in fact

vote Mendie Taoma

*and then Kai, A Poor Shepard Boy, and then Pleo.

Please remember:

• A Scum will show Townies as Town just to increase his credibility.
• Red did NOT know the identities of the three Elves. He ONLY knew the identity of the Maria Godfather.
• Our priority right now is to Wrap an Elf.

[Swammerdami]

Originally Posted by Mendie Taoma

I made the OPPOSITE interpretation of this post, moving Jackie from the likely scum list to Neutral, leaning town. It would seem too brazen for Jackie to play the Noobie card this way.

I have six players as almost certain Townies (seven if I include Jackie). Might one of my near-certain Townies be Scum? Sure; in fact it's likely! But there's plenty of blood to be shed ( ) before I need worry about that.

These Townies mostly find each other Townie as well. But Scum need to pretend that Townines are scum: Wrapping Townies is their only hope. It was when Red Skeezix declared Miko and I to be Scum that his scumminess became apparent. Many players find me probable Town this game, but my eccentricities make me an easy misWrap. Voting to wrap me (when I'm Town) is a scum tell! :-)

Originally Posted by Dizzymrslizzy

I still don't really feel comfortable with Miko. But Swammi is just jumping from one candidate to the next with very little reasoning.

Your suspicion of Miko and myself makes me suspicious of you, just as it did with Red. Why is it wrong to let the vote record show who I find most suspicious? There are no other votes on either Raven or Dizzy right now. What is the scum motive for "jumping" from you to her?

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Nobody has made a scum slip or posted scummishly (except Pizza) as far as I can tell. But the strong Town vibes given off by several players makes the noose tighten around the rest.

What can we tell from the voting record?

Burma Shave voted APSB Day 1 when it might have led to Wrap, but otherwise the Scum candidates don't vote each other. This leads me to guess that the "four" Elves are raventhief, Dizzy, one of {Burma Shave, APSB} and possibly Renata. I know there are only three Elves; one of the leftovers might be the Mariah Godfather.

Caveats: I often read Dizzy as Scum when she's Town. I often read APSB -- or at least some of his personae -- as Town when he's Scum. I often misread TexCat, so she's a top long-shot for fourth Scum.

[Swammerdami]

Originally Posted by Swammerdami

Please remember:

• Our priority right now is to Wrap an Elf.

Unclear, as someone pointed out above. It depends on whom Mariah Godmother, if allowed to live, will Murder toNight. Perhaps we should discuss that?

But even more urgent is to take advantage of the Double-Wrap we have available toDay.

My top two choices for the Double Wrap are
* Wrap Renata and your choice of { Dizzy, Raven }
* Wrap Dizzy and Raven

Any other suggestions for the Double Wrap?

Cheers, Swanni

[Mahaloth]

Originally Posted by Vote Counting Robot

Renata (2): LightFoot (38), TexCat (47)
Raventhief (1): Swammerdami (49)
Mendie Taoma (1): JackieLikesVariety (62)
Swammerdam (1): Dizzymrslizzy (59)
Jackielikesvariety (1): Mendie Taoma (61)
Bashorian Clement (1): Burma Shave (43)
A Poor Shepherd Boy (1): Bashorian Clement (40)
Burma Shave (0): Bashorian Clement (33)[40]
Dizzymrslizzy (0): Swammerdami (9)[49]
Miko (0): Dizzymrslizzy (16)[59]

Renata would be wrapped Thursday if nothing changes.

[Swammerdami]

I apologize for the jerk

Originally Posted by Swammerdami

Unclear, as someone pointed out above. It depends on whom Mariah Godmother, if allowed to live, will Murder toNight. Perhaps we should discuss that?

But even more urgent is to take advantage of the Double-Wrap we have available toDay.

My top two choices for the Double Wrap are
* Wrap Renata and your choice of { Dizzy, Raven }
* Wrap Dizzy and Raven

Any other suggestions for the Double Wrap?

Cheers, Swammi

* I might listen to variations involving Shepherd Boy and Rav or Ren.

[Dizzymrslizzy]

Originally Posted by Swammerdami

Unclear, as someone pointed out above. It depends on whom Mariah Godmother, if allowed to live, will Murder toNight. Perhaps we should discuss that?

But even more urgent is to take advantage of the Double-Wrap we have available toDay.

My top two choices for the Double Wrap are
* Wrap Renata and your choice of { Dizzy, Raven }
* Wrap Dizzy and Raven

Any other suggestions for the Double Wrap?

Cheers, Swanni

Swammi and Miko

I could get behind some other scenarios. But I think this is a solid one.

[Renata]

Swammi and Miko are not getting wrapped, so try again.

[Renata]

This is your last Mariah. Vote for great justice and reduce the nightly scum kill count.

Evidence: Independently scummy on day one. Awful town read from Red Skeezix. 28 posts on day one, 9 posts on day 2, only one post so far on day three. Consistent with lack of motivation from losing both teammates.

Other one-posters today are Texcat and Mendie. Mendie is a possibility but I don't really think that Texcat is paired with Pizza; her reactions to him read too pure.

If anyone else sees someone with a post count that went into the toilet today for no apparent reason I'd be interested.

[mikomiya]

Vote: A Poor Shepherd Boy

I'm going to take some time today or tomorrow to reread the whole game and give as detailed thoughts as possible on each player remaining. Much more manageable to do that now that we have some information and less players.

[Burma Shave]

Originally Posted by mikomiya

The grouping of people I have almost no real thoughts on outside of "voted for a red scum" are <Bashorian, Mendie, Swam, Tex> so at some point today I'll need to go through their posts and get an opinion on them.

Does anyone have strong opinions on any of them at the moment?

Strong opinion on Bashorian, looked scummy to me from D1 and even more so today. Reasons noted.

Swammi also suspect but mostly because he's switched votes multiple times and every time it's to someone I have town lean on.

Mendie, also scum lean. Now reciprocally voting Jackie, who is also on my naughty list.

Tex, no real lean either way, hasn't posted a lot.

Bashorian is my strongest scum lean by far and who I would like to take out today. But nobody else seems to be seeing what I'm picking up.

Leaving my vote there for awhile in cases it happens kbut I would also switch to APSB, Swammi, Mendie, or Jackie. In the order given.

[Burma Shave]

nose is sneezy eyes are weepy Benadryl helps b ut makes me sleepy

So I might change who I want to wrap I'll be back after my nap

[JackieLikesVariety]

let's see if I can post the vote count here:

Originally Posted by Vote Counting Robot

A Poor Shepherd Boy (3): Bashorian Clement (40), Renata (70), mikomiya (71)
Renata (2): LightFoot (38), TexCat (47)
Raventhief (1): Swammerdami (49)
Mendie Taoma (1): JackieLikesVariety (62)
Swammerdam (1): Dizzymrslizzy (59)
Jackielikesvariety (1): Mendie Taoma (61)
Bashorian Clement (1): Burma Shave (43)
Burma Shave (0): Bashorian Clement (33)[40]
Dizzymrslizzy (0): Swammerdami (9)[49]
Miko (0): Dizzymrslizzy (16)[59]

so...things are heating up!

can I vote for two people?

[raventhief]

Originally Posted by JackieLikesVariety

let's see if I can post the vote count here:

so...things are heating up!



can I vote for two people?

Nope, sorry. This game is not multivote. Didn't up for a Pleo game is your want to try that.

[Bashorian Clement]

Originally Posted by Burma Shave

Strong opinion on Bashorian, looked scummy to me from D1 and even more so today. Reasons noted.

Swammi also suspect but mostly because he's switched votes multiple times and every time it's to someone I have town lean on.

Mendie, also scum lean. Now reciprocally voting Jackie, who is also on my naughty list.

Tex, no real lean either way, hasn't posted a lot.

Bashorian is my strongest scum lean by far and who I would like to take out today. But nobody else seems to be seeing what I'm picking up.

Leaving my vote there for awhile in cases it happens kbut I would also switch to APSB, Swammi, Mendie, or Jackie. In the order given.

Can you share the reasons that you scum read me and also answer the question that I asked you about associating mendie and me?

[Bashorian Clement]

I mean you say your reasons are noted but then complain that no one is seeing what you are

[Mahaloth]

Originally Posted by Vote Counting Robot

A Poor Shepherd Boy (3): Bashorian Clement (40), Renata (70), mikomiya (71)
Renata (2): LightFoot (38), TexCat (47)
Raventhief (1): Swammerdami (49)
Mendie Taoma (1): JackieLikesVariety (62)
Swammerdam (1): Dizzymrslizzy (59)
Jackielikesvariety (1): Mendie Taoma (61)
Bashorian Clement (1): Burma Shave (43)
Burma Shave (0): Bashorian Clement (33)[40]
Dizzymrslizzy (0): Swammerdami (9)[49]
Miko (0): Dizzymrslizzy (16)[59]

A Poor Shepherd Boy is set to be wrapped Thursday if nothing changes.

[raventhief]

Originally Posted by raventhief

Nope, sorry. This game is not multivote. Didn't up for a Pleo game is your want to try that.

NETA *SIGN up for a Pleo game if you want to try that.

[raventhief]

Originally Posted by Swammerdami

Please remember:

• A Scum will show Townies as Town just to increase his credibility.
• Red did NOT know the identities of the three Elves. He ONLY knew the identity of the Maria Godfather.
• Our priority right now is to Wrap an Elf.

I may be missing something obvious, but why is am Elf higher priority than the last Mariah? Once we get the last Mariah, that's only 1 scum nk instead of two.

[A Poor Shepherd Boy]

Originally Posted by Renata

This is your last Mariah. Vote for great justice and reduce the nightly scum kill count.

Evidence: Independently scummy on day one. Awful town read from Red Skeezix. 28 posts on day one, 9 posts on day 2, only one post so far on day three. Consistent with lack of motivation from losing both teammates.

Other one-posters today are Texcat and Mendie. Mendie is a possibility but I don't really think that Texcat is paired with Pizza; her reactions to him read too pure.

If anyone else sees someone with a post count that went into the toilet today for no apparent reason I'd be interested.

So Renata, I have played with you exactly twice. Once, here, a few years ago when I was blown-away impressed by your play. The second time was right afterwards in the Big Game at the SDMB, where I am pretty sure that my Scum team killed you on Night 1 to be safe. (I could be mis-remembering it being our kill, but I don't think so. I know I thought you dangerous.) In any case, you lasted exactly one round only and I played three months and survived to near end and the memorable 3-Patsy finish. I was disappointed you never came back to Giraffe to play again. You may not remember me (Biotop) but I remember you. I don't quit on my Scum team. I may stress out for sure, but even then I don't quit.

I have never played a Scum version of you but the stress and unpleasantness you expressed on Day1 mimicked exactly how I was feeling here that Day and I gave you an early Town read because of it. I don't think you'd make that up even if you were the last Mariah.

As I said, I don't quit on my teams but this is a very tough period for me. Those who think flipping me from Day 1 will somehow enlighten everyone can do so without a fight from me if they can argue how my flip will help the team. I own I have not been able to give this game its due. I cannot promise much more than this evening and tomorrow evening before all the New Year's crap hits the fan. If my flip is best for Town then get to it.

However I'd like to make a proposal: Let me study the game and talk to folks tonight and Wednesday evening. Then let me pick the second Wrap. I have been trying to wrest a vig role out of this game for years and years and have landed that role exactly once. That time I targeted a Scum Meeko but then a Town Lightfoot thus losing my power. I'd like to have the shot one more time. Deal folks? If I am Scum it's a win for Town anyway, but if I am vanilla Santa at least I get a chance to try and make up for the Day1 pizza defense and a host of other 2022 Mafia sins as well. If I screw it up again, we're even. What do you say?

[A Poor Shepherd Boy]

So who's around and wants to talk?

[A Poor Shepherd Boy]

No one? raventhief? Lightfoot? Oh how I miss SNFaulkner.

[A Poor Shepherd Boy]

This is disappointing. Anyone who can be around at 10:00pm Eastern on Wednesday please drop in for chat.

[Bashorian Clement]

If you're scum I don't know why we would allow you that decision

[A Poor Shepherd Boy]

Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement

If you're scum I don't know why we would allow you that decision

Because I am not Scum. You don't know that and I understand. But in the event I am not Scum you give me the chance to make something out of this sorry game (not Mahaloth's game but mine). And hey if I am Scum I still might hit the other team, right?

And you never answered my question from earlier. Why is my wrap the "mechanically right" thing to do? Help me understand your thinking.

[mikomiya]

A Poor Shepherd Boy,

I'll patiently wait for your thoughts on the game state but I am curious now why it seems the only two times you have proposed a "listen to me" confidence level post are when you are being wagoned. It happened day one and I found your doing it to sound very towny but once you were out of the spotlight you've just melted back into the background until now, where you are wagoned again and proposing something again.

Earlier I had a pretty lengthy breakdown of my thoughts on multiple scum suspects of mine. Did you read it? If so, do you have any thoughts about my takes?

[A Poor Shepherd Boy]

Because I have not been around to play. I will apologize for that a final time.

Getting voted is one of the best opportunities in the game because I know the voters are wrong, I just do not know their motivation for being wrong. In this game it is harder because Scum can hunt for the other Scum team, but their motivations are wrong still because Scum will generally, at least at this point in the game, not really care if the wrap is the other Scum tribe or not. It's the easiest access to the game for me. And I will go back and look at your leans before Wednesday evening but I just came home, skimmed, and tried to start a dialog.

[A Poor Shepherd Boy]

I am going to bed now (gotta sell more friggen groceries Wednesday) but I will try and read Days 2 and 3 more carefully before Wednesday night. I hope lots of players can join the conference call tomorrow evening.

[Kaiveran]

Due to numerous shitty IRL circumstances, including dealing with my Grandma's death, and a compromised account on a payment service whose "support" team doesn't know their ass from their elbows, these wee couple of hours stolen in the frigid night is basically all I'll have to play. So if I'm curt with you, you now know why.

Renata is my Town check, by the by.

[Kaiveran]

Update on the stuff:

LIVING (w/Claims & Results)

1. Mendie Taoma
3. Lightfoot
4. Kaiveran - Cop
5. A Poor Shepherd Boy
8. Dizzymrslizzy
10. raventhief
11. Texcat
13. Bashorian Clement
14. Renata – Town Result
15. JackieLikesVariety
16. mikomiya
18. Burma Shave
19. Swammerdami

Current situation is 1:3:9.
Best case going into N3 is 0:2:9, and worst case N3 is 1:3:7, potentially leading to a 1:3:4 Loss of Majority situation on D4 if all three kills hit town.

So I wouldn't necessarily be opposed to the Vigilante claiming toDay if they're about to eat it. But IN NO OTHER CIRCUMSTANCES. Got it? Stay hidden, kill any fakeclaimers if there are any, kill the person who's wolf in the most possible worlds if not. No shame in holstering if you can't figure it out, either.

DEAD

2. guiri – Town Doc, N2
6. Askthepizzaguy – Mariah Doc, D1
7. Pleonast – Vanillager, N2
9. Red Skeezix – Mariah Backup Doc, N2
12. Halfrize – Vanillager, D2
17. gnarlycharlie – Vanillager, N1 (probably Vidge shot)


-------------

Found something I forgot post on a previous read, so filling it out and posting it now

Currently really feeling the Burma Shave / raventhief push. I think the fact that they hard countered the Red wagon while not mentioning anything in his defense is especially damning. It's a subtle form of Chainsaw Defense, that is, when you respond to someone being attacked by attacking someone else, because you find yourself unable to forward any reasons for their towniness. It's Day 3 guys, there should be both Prosecution and Defense in some measure.

Still holding on to the Jackie read, would swap them into one of the two elim slots if it comes to it.

Mendie, miko and Renata are as close to a "towncore" as I have and it'll take an NBA Jam Slam Dunk case to consider voting there.

Of course, after all this it appears that miko was peeled off Burma/raven despite this, so I'll have to read up and see how that happened.

[Burma Shave]

Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement

Can you share the reasons that you scum read me and also answer the question that I asked you about associating mendie and me?

I don't want to give away all my scum-finding secrets but this is a known one, manufacturing town reads, and then over-explaining them. Because you know.

My scum-finding secrets are not 100% but they're pretty good!

[Kaiveran]

Originally Posted by mikomiya

We take those results.

My early choices for chop right now are Burma Shave and Raventhief.

Both Burma and Raven came in to put Hal over the top once tied with Red without even mentioning Red. Raven commented about Hal/Pleo/Swammi and Burma commented about APSB/Jackie.

My secondary choices are APSB and Dizzy, with APSB leading the way there. Their gambit of "kill me then follow me" on day 1 is nothing like the rest of their posting in terms of confidence nor approach, and it coming while under a lot of pressure as the day 1 kill came near makes me think it was a ploy to sound towny. Especially after hearing others say APSB can be very convincing as town.

Dizzy is more of a hang on from day 1, but the way that Red defended them on day 1 sketched me out at the time and the way they voted me with Red once I voted Red makes me think there's a chance of a pairing there.

This is the aforementioned push I was feeling, highlighted.

Originally Posted by Swammerdami

Until we flip an Elf Scum, the vote record has little use (except for finding Mariah Godfather). And I do NOT want to wrap that Godfather now -- it's much more urgent to find us an Elf.

By process of elimination, a good bet for Elf on the Shelf seems to be

I mean Swammi tends to be pretty closed-notebook so I won't fault him for the terseness here.

What I don't understand is the unwillingness to eliminate the Mariah's here. Isn't less town-hostile kills + more trust in Town checks (from a Godfather dying) a good thing?

Originally Posted by LightFoot

To the contrary - even without an elf patterns may emerge
and I find it helps as a reminder of who is in game


I agree as this - let the Elves worry about the Mariah and hope the Mariah finds an Elf target
It seems to me to be stating the obvious but not everyone may have thought this way

Hmm. I mean if you ARE the type to gamble on crosskills, your odds do improve as the game shrinks. And I guess would be nice to have an Elf flip for analysis.

Myself, I am generally uncomfortable with it, especially in a situation like this. If the Mariahs numbered more than one right now, I'd understand this sentiment more – one team or the other might still be able to function as the effective "Vigilante Masons" that the Pizzaguide has gone into in depth. But as it stands now, one team is looking for a needle in a playerstack and the other consists of a single wildcard. Not exactly ideal. If I'm trusting any NK to go our way, it's the Vigilante.

Originally Posted by Dizzymrslizzy

Okay so Miko and Swammi are a team.

Nice reveal there.

There’s absolutely no reason either should be voting for me at this moment in time.

I’m going to stay with my

It’s the most obvious of the scums left out there.

Thank you Vig for taking care of Red.

This reaction is pretty terrible. Dizzy was at the bottom of miko's sus list and she didn't even vote there, looks like she just saw two people put heat on her and jumped to conclusions.

Not that I'm clearing Swammi, though, could still be ScumA/ScumB or even Elf/Elf, given the undue focus on Miko's consistent detail rather than Swammi's low effort posts. Probably prudent to remind people that the unpairing process is a bit different as long as both factions are alive: you want to say "not aligned" instead of "scum/town" or whatever.

Originally Posted by Renata

Sorry to disappoint you.

Yes, actually.

More thoughts on the day one Pizza wagon.

Dude wound up with a whopping five votes in a 20 (? whatever) person game on day one and one of those five votes was his own partner and two more are dead town. Wouldn't be surprised if the rest of the wagon was also town; wouldn't be totally shocked if both partners bussed.

Either way, highly, highly unlikely that his wagon was super influenced by scum from the opposing team. So where the heck are they.

They're not trying to kill Pizza. Probably felt far too risky, as he might have been town and then they look bad digging the grave of such a strong player.

They're not trying to kill Pizza's chosen counterwagon (Texcat). A little bit less easily explainable. Pizza, as mentioned, is a strong player, and when he calls somebody out on day one of a multiball game there's a decent chance he's right and they could have hopped on for a shot at some cheap town cred of the same sort as Miko keeps handing out for doing the right thing re: Pizza. It seems they chose not to, and the only thing that keeps me from just voting Texcat again right now because of it is that the prospect of a town-Pizza lynch that they didn't cause must have been pretty tasty too. So there's a high incentive to go completely off-wagon, spread the votes, and let Pizza get lynched by default.

And that's exactly what happened. So I won't go after Texcat on wagonnomics; I'll either get off my butt and do it properly based on posting or I'll find a reason not to.

But whether it's because of Texcat or not because of Texcat, I'd bet a cup of coffee the three non-mariah scum ended day one on three different wagons.

@Renata: I'm having trouble understanding the bolded. Could you elaborate?

Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement

That's not quite true, as I asked Mendie a question ( or maybe two ) that she blew off and I didn't think was important enough to follow up on at that point. This was on Day 1 and had something to do with how she characterized Jackie or something.

But really I don't know why you think our lack of interaction is alignment indicative. I haven't had interaction with most of the player list I think. You can probably say that of most of us. I mean, I haven't had interaction with you until now. And I know that I don't have access to a private discord. And if you do, you know I'm not in there with you.

So given the lack of interactions of those in this player list, why accuse Mendie and me specifically of being aligned scum?

I'm not sure if I wanna say "good show" or not. I mean, what he's saying checks out, and I haven't seen anything out of the ordinary, but BC strikes me as someone with a narrowish range.

I'm probably not gonna be able to sort out my nulls anytime soon but I want as much of my thoughts on record as possible.

Originally Posted by Dizzy & Miko

(big back and forth that I neglected to quote somehow)

I mean Dizzy does look marginally better than before here, but I've not been able to find much fault with miko's response. We'll see if there's any followup but I kinda doubt it with only 2 pages.

Originally Posted by Swammerdami

Players have been circumspect this game. With one class of exceptions, it's hard to find scum tells or obviously-scum rhetoric. (The difficulty is partly due to having TWO scum teams.)

The exceptions are when someone (e.g. Red Skeezix) smudges players who are near-certain Town. Scum are desperate to stir up suspicion against Townies. Red over-reached and Wrapping him became easy.

It's easier to find likely Townies: Their thinking is purer. Jackie may seem suspicious looking at the vote record, but some of her scummy look is due to being a noobie. Consider:

If she were Scum, she'd know about night-time wrapping. It would be brazen of her to pretend otherwise. Hence: Jackie is probably Town. Several other players are posting very Townishly. With that and the vote record, we can almost solve the game now!

Dizzy and raventhief are by far the likeliest Scum IMO. Raven may be even likelier than Dizzy and I'll be happy to move my vote to her if that's the consensus.

Candidates for the two remaining scum slots are Renata, APSB and perhaps Burma Shave or Jackie (or the inscrutable TexCat).

@Swammerdami: Jackie already had a Night to be surprised by the "wrap" language though, so I'm not sure why this is suddenly an issue. Unless she found the multi-kills jarring. (Not reading the setup in detail – or at all – is a big thing on other sites, sadly.)

Still I have to admit I'm getting skittish about moving to Jackie. For someone with low presence, low pull, to stick around for so long starts to ping my "designated miswrap" radar, and generally I want to give those people more chances to prove themselves (or not) compared to the bigger fish.

And Renata, well, Town check obvs. Given the numbers I've crunched in my previous post, I don't think we chance it on "Ren's tooootally GF dood!" without some damn good casework to show for it. Which I don't think we have.

Originally Posted by Dizzymrslizzy

So here’s my take on Pizza’s list.

He had Skeetix as neutral almost scummy.

He had himself as Blue.

I don’t think his last partner is a Blue or dark green on this list.

If I’d guess, I bet he put his last partner in the teal category or the orange/red. I’d lean more towards teal with Pizza being run out the door.

We can already cross off the known town.

We already know he was “suspecting me” outside of his rule set ( and I know I’m just an ordinary mall Santa)

Originally Posted by mikomiya

Oh this is good information.

I wonder if the correct play today is to just multiwrap and clean up the wagons from day 1 and day 2 by removing TexCat and APSB. Both have been scumread by people we know are town (Pleo/Guiri were on APSB, Kai was on Tex).

If Dizzy is correct that quiet texcat is scum texcat then that's still someone who can be scum. I've talked about APSB being in my scum pile for a bit now. So it's not just purely for information, but it does give a lot of it in addition.

I mean, Renata's screed is not entirely accurate, but the bolded is the most important bit. Pizza is someone who works tirelessly to maximize his odds and hedge his bets. He is not someone who's going to doom himself and his team to get caught out by using just one element of the Wolf RPS (Defend, Attack, Ignore) unless he thinks he can clinch the game with it.

And getting run over by the killdozer Day fucking 1, which is when he posted this list, is not a game-clinching situation.

So I could definitely indulge the possibility of wuffs in Pizza's bottom tiers (BC, Lizzy, Swammi, and Texcat, for reference.)

This looks like the definitive shift for miko's voting approach as well.

Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement

I haven't had any scum pings from either Tex or Shep, but this is the right play mechanically I think.





I will go back to voting Burma Shave if there is will to wrap there.

These are the only three I'm interested in right now.

...welp, I'm getting some minor scumpings.

I dunno. This isn't quite the dangerous sort of mechanic-brain that happens in (semi-)closed setups, but wolves love the mechanically-optimal solution when its wrong, and given the unlikely but still possible PLM scenario here, I have to pause for a sec.

I'm also very suddenly having flashbacks to how Pizza snuggled me and pet me and called me a good little foxcat D1 for wanting to sink my claws into TexCat. Cold paws, suffice it to say.

Originally Posted by Dizzymrslizzy

Ummmm Didn't I say that?

I mean yeah, but the way you phrased it kinda suggests you were going with the opposite interpretation.

Originally Posted by TexCat

I'm tired of being tunneled by you. For some reason you've been hyperfocused on me and ignoring almost everything else.

@TexCat
Renata's my Town check, so not happening toDay if I can help it.

You have until D4 to explain which team she's the Godfather for, and why.

[Kaiveran]

Dunno why I'm mentioning people when I'll be horrifically unavailable for this upcoming day and the next.

I guess you can take the Armei out of the sweaty tryhard traditions of the game, but the operation isn't commutative.

[Kaiveran]

I should catch a few more Zs. I am in shambles.

If you're responding to my posts or have something important to show me, please mention me, like this.

@Kaiveran

I may not be able to post very much but I will try to read whatever you mention me in.

[Renata]

Originally Posted by A Poor Shepherd Boy

So Renata, I have played with you exactly twice. Once, here, a few years ago when I was blown-away impressed by your play. The second time was right afterwards in the Big Game at the SDMB, where I am pretty sure that my Scum team killed you on Night 1 to be safe. (I could be mis-remembering it being our kill, but I don't think so. I know I thought you dangerous.) In any case, you lasted exactly one round only and I played three months and survived to near end and the memorable 3-Patsy finish. I was disappointed you never came back to Giraffe to play again. You may not remember me (Biotop) but I remember you. I don't quit on my Scum team. I may stress out for sure, but even then I don't quit.

I think I remember your name, if not your playstyle exactly. Cool to see you again anyway.

I'm not the player I used to be since coming back. I still try (or have tried, up to this game where I have been alternately sick and demotivated since the very start), but the results have been very not good. What can you do.

I have never played a Scum version of you but the stress and unpleasantness you expressed on Day1 mimicked exactly how I was feeling here that Day and I gave you an early Town read because of it. I don't think you'd make that up even if you were the last Mariah.

As I said, I don't quit on my teams but this is a very tough period for me. Those who think flipping me from Day 1 will somehow enlighten everyone can do so without a fight from me if they can argue how my flip will help the team. I own I have not been able to give this game its due. I cannot promise much more than this evening and tomorrow evening before all the New Year's crap hits the fan. If my flip is best for Town then get to it.

However I'd like to make a proposal: Let me study the game and talk to folks tonight and Wednesday evening. Then let me pick the second Wrap. I have been trying to wrest a vig role out of this game for years and years and have landed that role exactly once. That time I targeted a Scum Meeko but then a Town Lightfoot thus losing my power. I'd like to have the shot one more time. Deal folks? If I am Scum it's a win for Town anyway, but if I am vanilla Santa at least I get a chance to try and make up for the Day1 pizza defense and a host of other 2022 Mafia sins as well. If I screw it up again, we're even. What do you say?

I say you should do your best. I'm probably not around to post that time of day though. We'll see.

[Renata]

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

Due to numerous shitty IRL circumstances, including dealing with my Grandma's death, and a compromised account on a payment service whose "support" team doesn't know their ass from their elbows, these wee couple of hours stolen in the frigid night is basically all I'll have to play. So if I'm curt with you, you now know why.

Renata is my Town check, by the by.

I'm sorry to hear about your grandma. Don't even worry about it.

[Renata]

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

Dunno why I'm mentioning people when I'll be horrifically unavailable for this upcoming day and the next.

I guess you can take the Armei out of the sweaty tryhard traditions of the game, but the operation isn't commutative.

You still have night to post if there's anything you want to say before the inevitable wrapping, even if it doesn't help with EoD.

Sorry, I'm sure you know this.

[Swammerdami]

Until at least one Elf Scum is found, it's hard to read votes and interactions to guess who Scum is. Sometimes I don't even try to study a Game until at least one Scum is flipped.

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

Miko's scum list and mine are remarkably similar (especially with a Renata wrap now off-the-table). I don't think either of us is "sheeping" the other. We're just Townies with very similar reads. Miko may be very clever scum. But Scum can't win without building fake cases against Townies and Miko doesn't seem to be doing that.

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

This is the aforementioned push I was feeling, highlighted.



I mean Swammi tends to be pretty closed-notebook so I won't fault him for the terseness here.

What I don't understand is the unwillingness to eliminate the Mariah's here. Isn't less town-hostile kills + more trust in Town checks (from a Godfather dying) a good thing?

It was stupid oversight on my part. I was so intent on Wrapping an Elf Scum so we can analyze the record, I completely overlooked that Wrapping Mariah Godfather would stop a Murder. I admitted this error, and will be happy to hear arguments why "So-and-so is the Mariah Godfather."

But more urgent is to "herd cats" and arrange a Double Wrap with TWO likely Scum. If Townies cooperate this should be quite doable.

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

. . . Swammi's low effort posts....

Guilty as charged. But I DID re-read the Game, noting that the only Suspect-vs-Suspect activity was Burma Shave's vote on APSB. This reinforced my belief that my Scum suspect list is a good one.

I agree with almost all of Kaiveran's post, but want to clarify this:

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

Swammerdami: Jackie already had a Night to be surprised by the "wrap" language though, so I'm not sure why this is suddenly an issue. Unless she found the multi-kills jarring. (Not reading the setup in detail – or at all – is a big thing on other sites, sadly.)

A first game can be confusing, and not studying rules is common-place. (I didn't read to know that Doc couldn't self-protect.) If Jackie were active in a Scum chat she would certainly know about Night-time Murders. Therefore if she is in a Scum chat, her post is play-acting.

Some might consider such play-acting unethical. I find it likely she is genuine Town. This might be considered "meta-reasoning"; and perhaps it is unethical for me to use it??

[Renata]

@Kaiveran

Yeah, so. I have trouble explaining this but hopefully it makes sense.

My instinct is that scum team two has no earthly idea how to respond to Pizza's play on day one and probably tries to avoid the entire thing if they can get away with it. He was incredibly erratic, he'd claimed a town power role -- vig at that -- for all they know he really is the vig and is going to shoot anybody who looks at him cross-eyed. I'm feeling like the Elf team is in a position where they both really want him dead and really don't want to be personally responsible for it.

This is backed up by the fact that the majority of his EoD wagon has now flipped, and so far consists of two town and one Mariah. Both the other players would have to be Elf for his wrap to have been pushed by the Elf team, and that seems highly unlikely. More likely to me is that neither of them is. (Only "more likely", this isn't a non-Elf read on Mendie or whoever the other person was.)

So if they're 2/3 or 3/3 not voting for Pizza, where are they voting.

The first part of my comment bolded comment, about Texcat, is about them having to assume that Pizza might be town, and might have actually called out somebody on the other team. In other words, from their perspective, if Texcat is not an Elf with them, they have to assume that Pizza might be calling out an actual Mariah. They have the option of trying to pacify Pizza by voting with him on his suspect, which would make them look good if he's right (and he's often right), get him off their back for a while probably, avoid having to engage the PizzaQuestion direction, it's a lot of benefits of voting there if Texcat isn't an elf.

But they did not vote there, at least (probably) not more than one of them. Meaning they didn't care about killing Texcat, meaning they didn't see any benefits in doing so, or at least not benefits that outweighed the negatives.

One of the potential reasons for this would be if Texcat is herself an Elf.

But that's only one possible reason, and not enough for me to go with on its own. The other possible explanation for the "disappearing Elf" phenomenon in the day one voting is that they were perfectly happy to watch the town (and bussing) take down strong player Pizza without their having to get their own hands dirty if Pizza turned out to be town, and just kind of scattered into their own reads (fake or otherwise), which are probably on three different players.