Last Stand Mafia - Day 7

[Red Skeezix]

The seventh day didn't feel so lucky for the soldiers. Once again not everyone showed up for roll call. When they finally found Giraffe's body, it looked like someone had worked him over with a crow bar before finally slitting his throat.

================================================== =======

Giraffe aka Chief Interrogator(Town) is dead.


KidVermicious, aka Corporal was vanilla.
Septimus aka Private was vanilla.

The barracks bathroom is a mess. It's time for one lucky soldier to don the rubber gloves and get to scrubbing, because today's mission is "Clean Barracks Bathroom".

With 7 players alive, the hammer is 5 votes.

Day 7 ends on Wednesday the 14th at 7PM.

[Giraffe]

Good luck, Town!

[crys]

Okies....mission was successful. As far as who does what today?.......Idk at this point.

[guiri]

Farewell Giraffe.

I concur with Crys about last Night's mission.

Anyone get beaten up last Night? Giraffe didn't say who he'd target.

[Chucara]

No beatings here.. Did you get to track anyone?

[Chucara]

Ok, so for the rest of the game, I'm going to count Squid and Bill out. Squid hasn't been online this night either, so I have to believe that he is not scum.

That leaves very few players left, and we are drawing ever closer to LYLO.

[Chucara]

Available Roles
Commanding Officer -- Askthepizzaguy (not playing)
Political Officer - ?
Chief Interrogator -- Giraffe
Information Officer -- peeker
Personnel Officer -- Tinker
Communications Officer -- Colby
Mess Officer -- LightFoot
First Sergeant - ?
Sergeant -- Total Ulla, MHaye
Corporal -- Chucara, Flying Squid with Goggles, KidVermicious
Specialist, Information -- LaurieRn, Guiri
Specialist, Hydrodynamics -- ?
Specialist, Communications -- TexCat
Specialist, Firearms -- Scuba Ben
Specialist, Detention -- ?
Private -- gnarlycharlie, crys, Sister Coyote, Wombat99, Septimus

BillMc is MIA.

So the players still alive are:
MHaye
Chucara
Squid
Guiri
Scuba Ben
Crys
BillMc

Truth be told, I've pretty much lost interest with this game. 7 people alive and 2 people not playing doesn't make for a good game. I don't want to reread, so a gut vote:

[guiri]

Chucara, I hear you but I suspect we're very close to the end and a little work now could seal the game for Town...

Scuba hasn't been online since yesterDay either... I don't think online status is a sufficient indicator to clear someone of being scum. Also Scuba voted Colby D1 and D3, Wombat voted Scuba D3.

What are your thoughts on MHaye? As the scum cop/beater?

Or Crys, as vanilla scum?

[guiri]

Color coded vote count:

Day 1 gnarlycharlie(6): Tinker[169], peekercpa[184], Colby11[187], Lightfoot[189], MHaye[201], crys[205] LaurieRn(4): crys[113-205], KidVermicious[145], TotalUlla[147], TexCat[166], LaurieRn[178] Colby11(3): guiri[83], ScubaBen[86-181], Septimus[88], LaurieRn[107-110], gnarlycharlie[170] crys(3): Giraffe[118], peekercpa[136-184], FlyingSquidWithGoggles[141-160][204], LaurieRn[151-178], ScubaBen[181] Tinker(1): KidVermicious[10-145], BillMc[12], Colby11[103-119] TexCat(1): Wombat99[219] BillMc(0): Giraffe[15-118] MHaye(0): FlyingSquidWithGoggles[27-141] zumaChucara(0): Colby11[80-103] No Vote(2): SisterCoyote, zumaChucara Day 2 KidVermicious(4): Giraffe[30], Tinker[57], Colby11[184], LaurieRn[199] Colby11(4): Septimus[34-151], guiri[74], KidV[148-183], peekercpa[160], TexCat[163], Wombat99[181] Tinker(2): ScubaBen[68], FlyingSquidWithGogglles[96-124], Lightfoot[145] LaurieRn(1): KidVermicious[3-148,183] crys(1): Giraffe[8-30], ScubaBen[33-68], FlyingSquidWithGoggles[62-96,161] MHaye(1): BillMc[67] Wombat99(1): SisterCoyote[84] ScubaBen(1): TexCat[115-163], crys[128] guiri(1): Septimus[151] Lightfoot(0): Colby11[150-167] Septimus(0): Colby11[167-184] No Vote(3): TotalUlla, zumaChucara, MHaye Day 3 Colby11(7): Septimus[4], ScubaBen[9-122][209], Wombat99[10-224], guiri[37], KidVermicious[72-161][161], SisterCoyote[130], TotalUlla[172], Chucara[231] Tinker(4): Colby11[109], ScubaBen[122-209], TexCat[143], Giraffe[144], Chucara[148-160][160-178], Lightfoot[198] ScubaBen(3): Tinker[75], Chucara[178-231], Wombat99[224], crys[248] TotalUlla(1): BillMc[236] LaurieRn(0): Chucara[6-148], crys[73-246] guiri(0): Giraffe[28-144] No Vote(3):FlyingSquidWithGoggles, LaurieRn, MHaye Day 4 LaurieRn(8): Giraffe[3-107][172-186][224], SisterCoyote[4], Chucara[20-43][102], KidVermicious[199], Wombat99[212], Septimus[233], FlyingSquidWithGoggles[235], MHaye[241] Lightfoot(2): guiri[168], Septimus[178-233], TotalUlla[204], FlyingSquidWithGoggles[225-235] TotalUlla(1): ScubaBen[41], Chucara[43-74], Giraffe[107-153] ScubaBen(1): TotalUlla[144-204], crys[211] Septimus(1): Giraffe[186-223], Lightfoot[210] Giraffe(0): KidVermicious[25-199], Septimus[26-178], Chucara[95-102] KidVermicious(0): Chucara[74-95], Giraffe[153-172] BillMc(0): FlyingSquidWithGoggles[200-225] No Vote(2): BillMc, LaurieRn Day 5 Lightfoot(7): Septimus[78], Giraffe[81-104,196], Guiri[113], KidVermicious[150], Chucara[177], crys[185], Total Ulla[215] Total Ulla(3): Giraffe[104-196], Scuba Ben[124], Merestil Haye[266], Lightfoot[268] Flying Squid With Goggles(0): Chucara[53-176], KidV[84-150] Chucara(0): Scuba Ben[87-90] Guiri(0): crys[10-185] Scuba Ben(0): Total Ulla[204-215] Septimus(0): Giraffe[62-81], Lightfoot[76-268] No vote(2): Flying Squid With Goggles, BillMc Day 6 Total Ulla(6): Giraffe[2], Scuba Ben[27], Chucara[75], MHaye[76], Guiri[78], Crys[84] Giraffe(1): Total Ulla[22] BillMc(0): ScubaBen[9-27] Flying Squid with Goggles(0): Chucara[4-75], Guiri[36-78] No vote(2): Flying Squid With Goggles, BillMc

Claims

Power roles: Dead: 5.Colby11 (scum thief), unknown N1, unknown N2 8.Tinker (name cop), Crys N1, ScubaBen N2, unknown N3 9.Wombat99 (scum poisoner), Tinker N1 or N2 10.Lightfoot (pfk poisoner), none N2, Wombat N3 13.Total Ulla (paranoid doc), Bill N1, none N2, mission N3, KidV N4, ScubaBen N5 +beaten up x2 17.peekercpa (dirty cop), unknown N1+beaten up, unknown N2 2.Giraffe (alignment cop), mission N1, KidV N2+beaten up x2, blocked N3, Septimus N4, Total N5, unknown N6 Vanilla/Passive: Dead: 1.SisterCoyote 7.Septimus, beaten N4 12.texcat 14.LaurieRn 18.gnarlycharlie 19.KidV, beaten N2, mission N3, mission N5 Claimed: 3.FlyingSquidwithgoggles 4.ScubaBen (confirmed Firearms, claimed bulletproof), attacked N1, mission N2, blocked N5 11.crys (confirmed Private, claimed vanilla), mission N6 15. Guiri (confirmed power), mission N1, mission N4, mission N6 16.Chucara, absent N1-N2 20. MHaye Unknown: 6.BillMc, absent N3-N6

[Chucara]

The thing is.. if Squid and Bill are both town, we are at a de facto LYLO now.

5 voting players left with two scum. We lynch one town player, scum kills one of the active players, and it's 2 scum, one town voting player. Scum lynches the last active player, and they win without needing their NK.

If we lynch Squid or Bill, it will be 3/2 Tomorrow, so maybe that is our best bet.

If squid is scum, much better.

I have a weak town lean on guiri, but that is it.




I really hate having to spend this much time discussing whether or not players are actually playing or not, as it really ruins the game for me, and is hugely pro-scum.

[Flying Squid with Goggles]

Well shoot. My best theory at the moment was that Giraffe was scum and the game didn't really have three or four cops. That goes out the window.

[Scuba Ben]

I'm back -- family stuff all weekend, which fortunately corresponded with Night.

It sucks to lose Giraffe, but I'm not surprised.

I had a guess about Giraffe's successful vs. failed investigations, that power roles would resist his beatings. Septy being revealed as Vanilla nixed that.

I did not get beaten up, nor did I sleep heavily.

Originally Posted by crys

Okies....mission was successful. As far as who does what today?.......Idk at this point.

Crys and guiri, would you please post your mission PMs? I prefer Crys to post her result PM first.

I would be very very unhappy if BillMc is active as an anti-Town player and not playing. I would be unhappy (without the two "very"s) if Flying Squid is actively anti-Town and not playing. Accordingly, if we don't lynch Flying Squid, who's left?

I tentatively trust guiri. I trust myself of course.
I'm just barely leaning Town on crys.
M.Haye and Chucara are at the bottom of my list.

For now, I'll avoid OMG Your Gut S and .

As for the mission, I'll go with the mission-eligible player I trust the most as Town and expect people would like to see scrub out the bathroom.


Oh! Squid is back! Where have you been, mate?

[crys]

Originally Posted by Scuba Ben

I'm back -- family stuff all weekend, which fortunately corresponded with Night.

It sucks to lose Giraffe, but I'm not surprised.

I had a guess about Giraffe's successful vs. failed investigations, that power roles would resist his beatings. Septy being revealed as Vanilla nixed that.

I did not get beaten up, nor did I sleep heavily.

Crys and guiri, would you please post your mission PMs? I prefer Crys to post her result PM first.

I would be very very unhappy if BillMc is active as an anti-Town player and not playing. I would be unhappy (without the two "very"s) if Flying Squid is actively anti-Town and not playing. Accordingly, if we don't lynch Flying Squid, who's left?

I tentatively trust guiri. I trust myself of course.
I'm just barely leaning Town on crys.
M.Haye and Chucara are at the bottom of my list.

For now, I'll avoid OMG Your Gut S and .

As for the mission, I'll go with the mission-eligible player I trust the most as Town and expect people would like to see scrub out the bathroom.


Oh! Squid is back! Where have you been, mate?

I would be happy to post it as soon as I return from work I can't from my phone.

Sent from my SCH-I405 using Tapatalk 2

[Flying Squid with Goggles]

Alas, I've been nowhere. Kept telling myself that I would read peoples' cases, write posts, and kept putting it off without realizing how long I had eventually put it off for. Unwise and no fun, unfortunately. So now I'm just going to post whether I feel I've kept up with the game or not.


Working off Chucara's list:

It seems there's unlikely to be scum in the guiri and ... wait a second, when did KidV die? Hm. guiri seems the only highly likely townie left.

Chucara, MHaye, BillMc, Scuba, qand crys are the likely remaining suspects as I see it.

crys, MHaye, Scuba, and guiri all voted up some of the scum, either bussing allies or dispatching Town's enemies.

So...

[Chucara]

Seriously, we need to lynch squid..

[guiri]

Originally Posted by Chucara

5 voting players left with two scum.

Originally Posted by Chucara

Seriously, we need to lynch squid..

Why two scum? Who do you suspect is Squid's partner?

Originally Posted by Scuba Ben

I did not get beaten up, nor did I sleep heavily.

Sleep heavily?

Originally Posted by Flying Squid with Goggles

crys, MHaye, Scuba, and guiri all voted up some of the scum, either bussing allies or dispatching Town's enemies.

Really? Crys voted town, PFK and Scuba. MHaye voted town every day.

Thanks for the vote but I can't go on the mission toNight.

Squid & MHaye, do you have anything to report from last Night?

[Chucara]

Originally Posted by guiri

Why two scum? Who do you suspect is Squid's partner?

Well.. everyone really. I have no idea about this game anymore. I assumed that 3 scum is a low number, but I'd be happy to be wrong.

If there are 4, we are screwed if we don't lynch correctly tonight. If there are 3, we are looking good. In any case, strategy remains the same.

I'm quite amazed that no one else seems to see what Squid is doing. To me, it seems obvious that he has been staying under the radar the whole game. He doesn't seem to post any explanations for this, nor seems to have read the posts where he has been called out. If he is town, were screwed anyway.

[crys]

First order of business here is the PM I promised when I got home from work :

Originally Posted by Red Skeezix

You enter the staff office marked "Political Reeducation." There is a terminal there with a button that says "Begin Reeducation Process". When you click on the button the terminal displays the following:

"Congratulations on being selected to conduct reeducation.

The reeducation process is simple, you will observe the subjects and call for help if the subjects vital signs drop below acceptable levels. The subjects have been preselected for reeducation due to their position and the last time they attended this course of therapy. Do not worry, the subjects will be remotely subdued, and passively collected.

Beginning Now....

Locking Observation Chamber Doors.............Complete
Passivating subjects.......Complete
Transmitting reeducation package.........ERROR
Reeducation package not found. Please insert reeducation disk 67B into receptacle or press CTRL-C to abort reeducation

"

You search around the office for about 5 hours, not locating the specified disk. In the end you are resigned to pressing CTRL-C. The system displays the folllowing:

"
Abort Signal Recieved.
Waking Subjects..............Complete.
Reeducation Aborted From User Input.
"


Your mission was successful, as the system seems to be operating at normal levels. But someone (or some people) were remotely subdued by this system.

You are ineligible to participate in a mission on Night 7.

[Chucara]

Hmm.. So who were 'subdued by the system'?

[crys]

2nd order of business.

I agree we could be getting close to lylo. However my gut is SCREAMING at me today and was starting to yesterday. I am not sure because it might just be that they are pinging me by their play style or there is more to it.

Chucara is really making my internal buzzer go off and I can't really put my finger on why. I just know that every other time I felt this way my gut turned out to be right.

For right now I am going to rely on my gut and



and I will

[Chucara]

Well I can't argue with that reasoning..

crys: You don't see anything fishy about Squid?

[crys]

Originally Posted by Chucara

Well I can't argue with that reasoning..

crys: You don't see anything fishy about Squid?

I didn't say that either. Squid is a toss up for me at the moment. I find the fact he's not even trying to catch up etc kinda suspect.

Sent from my SCH-I405 using Tapatalk 2

[Merestil Haye]

Guiri, I did not get beaten up or otherwise overtly affected last Night.

I see that Crys has posted a mission result PM. Guiri, do you confirm this?

I have to say that I didn't like Chucara's vote - he basically went from asserting FSG is Town to voting for Squid in the space of three lines in post 10. He seems to be assuming that we can get away with lynching an inactive even if that inactive is Town and the vote pushes us to Lylo.

I'm torn because FSG voted for Bill in post 14, which has the same basic problem as Chucara's vote and adds to that he is wrong about my vote record - not that I'm proud of having voted Town with every vote I've placed, but none of my votes have been for known Mafiates.

I can't easily check over the others from my spreadsheet, because the first part of the spreadsheet is on the disk of my dead PC. My impression is that FSG hasn't really looked at anyone's voting record.

I think these two are my chief suspects right now. I'll try and vote tomorrow.

[Chucara]

Merestil Haye: The three posts I changed my mind on was a day IRL. I honestly have no idea what to do this game, and I don't see how we can win. A wise scum move would be to get me lynched now - that would bring us at lylo Tomorrow now that Squid is magically back.

Again - seriously town - we are letting him get away with this?

[Chucara]

NETA: The reason I wanted to speculate Squid is town is because I think it is very unfair for a scum player to simply disappear for more than half the game.

Squid: Can you state publicly that you are a big weenie if you are scum and it was your tactic to simply not play this game?

If he does that, I am happy to look elsewhere.

[guiri]

Originally Posted by Chucara

Hmm.. So who were 'subdued by the system'?

Possibly Giraffe again, and apparently the scum beater-upper since no-one's claimed a beating last Night

Originally Posted by crys

Vote: Chucara

and I will

Elect: Scuba Ben

Crys, your gut told you ScubaBen was scum D2#128, D3#248, D4#211, why do you now trust him enought to send on a mission alone?

Originally Posted by Merestil Haye

I see that Crys has posted a mission result PM. Guiri, do you confirm this?

Yes, word for word.

Originally Posted by Chucara

Again - seriously town - we are letting him get away with this?

I hope not.

Vote Squid
Elect MHaye

I'm struggling to find Squid's partner. Squid voted MHaye early D1, #27, possibly a poke, distancing, but still quite early in the game for scum-on-scum action. He poked MHaye again in #90 but admitted it was a weak case in #94, just a pressure vote which he then unvoted to vote Crys instead, who, despite being his scummiest lean in #160, he also unvoted only to revote in #204 finding the case stronger than the one against Colby. He voted Crys again D2. Chucara came out quite strongly against Squid D5 and D6. Squid's voted Bill D5 and again toDay. That leaves Scuba, right?

[crys]

Originally Posted by guiri

Possibly Giraffe again, and apparently the scum beater-upper since no-one's claimed a beating last Night


Crys, your gut told you ScubaBen was scum D2#128, D3#248, D4#211, why do you now trust him enought to send on a mission alone?

Yes, word for word.

I hope not.

Vote Squid
Elect MHaye

I'm struggling to find Squid's partner. Squid voted MHaye early D1, #27, possibly a poke, distancing, but still quite early in the game for scum-on-scum action. He poked MHaye again in #90 but admitted it was a weak case in #94, just a pressure vote which he then unvoted to vote Crys instead, who, despite being his scummiest lean in #160, he also unvoted only to revote in #204 finding the case stronger than the one against Colby. He voted Crys again D2. Chucara came out quite strongly against Squid D5 and D6. Squid's voted Bill D5 and again toDay. That leaves Scuba, right?

Ben is the only one other than you that I have a town lean on even if it is just slight. The others playing just haven't given me enough to go on which makes me kind of nervous.


Sent from my SCH-I405 using Tapatalk 2

[Scuba Ben]

Originally Posted by Scuba Ben

I did not get beaten up, nor did I sleep heavily.

Originally Posted by guiri

Sleep heavily?

As I recall, that is what Giraffe reported happened to him the last time we had the political reeducation mission. Whoever was the preselected target(s), I was not one. Based on the mission description, I find it unlikely Giraffe got tagged this time as well.

Originally Posted by Chucara

Seriously, we need to lynch squid..

I could get on board with that, depending how I feel about M. Haye and you.

It seems to me BillMc is not a good vote right now. In fact, Red Skeezix, if BillMc remains MIA Today, please Modkill him by Dawn?

[Scuba Ben]

Originally Posted by Chucara

Hmm.. So who were 'subdued by the system'?

crys - on mission
guiri - on mission
Merestil Haye - claimed not to have been subdued or beaten up (D7.23)
Scuba Ben - claimed not to have been subdued or beaten up (D7.12)
Chucara - ?
Flying Squid - ?
BillMc - MIA

Unlikely that Giraffe beat himself up. Doubtful (to me) that Giraffe was subdued.

If I remember correctly from the previous political reeducation mission, the pre-mission peem said the people on the mission were not targetable (for this game's definition of "targetable"). So it's unlikely crys or guiri got beaten up. And the mission color basically says neither crys nor guiri were the pre-selected targets.

So Chucara and Squiddy, what happened to you two last Night?

(ETA OOG: This was my 5kth post. )

[Chucara]

Originally Posted by Scuba Ben

So Chucara and Squiddy, what happened to you two last Night?

(ETA OOG: This was my 5kth post. )

OOG: Congrats

Nothing happened to me all night. I have only received one PM other than my role PM all game.

[Scuba Ben]

Conclusion: Either Giraffe beat up Squid, Giraffe got subdued again, or somebody is a lying Scum. I cannot see Giraffe knowingly investigating BillMc.

I'm a bit surprised he didn't beat me up. He's wanted an excuse to do that to me for ages.

So we're back to Chucara vs. Flying Squid vs. Merestil Haye, at least in my mind. (Which is not to forget crys, but if she's Scum, IMO she's played it far better than I can.)

[Flying Squid with Goggles]

Nothing happened to me all night.

I really do think BillMc is a good vote ATM - his standard MO is to submerge for a few days and resurface D4 or D5 with pretty insightful posts about who's scum and a good vote. So far we haven't seen a lot of that from him.

As an alternate vote, Chucara's not a bad choice, but I think much less likely to be scum - his comments about being a Corporal too would normally just not be pinging me because there might be two corporals or there might not be a town/scum dichotomy between two roles, but he seemed pretty insistent on using it as an excuse to vote me.

[Scuba Ben]

And that, Flying Squid, has echos of another item discussed some Days ago -- if there is such a dichotomy, this game would be too easy to break. (But it's still possible.)

And I don't like your non-explanation for your absence. Would you like me to vote for you over Merestil?

If BillMc suddenly reemerges I'm willing to discuss him. Until then I consider him a distraction, and you bringing him up sounds fishy to me.

[crys]

Originally Posted by Flying Squid with Goggles

Nothing happened to me all night.

I really do think BillMc is a good vote ATM - his standard MO is to submerge for a few days and resurface D4 or D5 with pretty insightful posts about who's scum and a good vote. So far we haven't seen a lot of that from him.

As an alternate vote, Chucara's not a bad choice, but I think much less likely to be scum - his comments about being a Corporal too would normally just not be pinging me because there might be two corporals or there might not be a town/scum dichotomy between two roles, but he seemed pretty insistent on using it as an excuse to vote me.

And what about that missing space in your pm. Do you care to elaborate on that?

Sent from my SCH-I405 using Tapatalk 2

[Scuba Ben]

Actually, after thinking a bit more about Flying Squid's #32, let's look at his final votes:

1. crys
2. crys
3. DNV
4. LaurieRN (Town, big bandwagon)
5. DNV
6. DNV

That's a pretty unTownie pattern, almost as if he's trying specifically not to leave a vote record. I'll put my money here for now.

[Chucara]

Hm..

I'm not sure what to make of this. If Squid is town, this is an easy bandwagon for scum - but he continually neglects to mention why he has been absent mostly all game. He does not address the questions posed to him. Not having time is hardly an excuse. It will take all of 5 minutes to read the entire day, this post being number 35.

I intentionally do not consider Bill scum. In my mind, any sane moderator would not allow a scum player to win by simply not participating. If that is the case, I will vote lynch every lurker in every game from now on, and call it a lesson learned.

Right now I don't have much other than gut to go on, and the remaining players are (in order of perceived towniness:

Chucara (obvious)
Guiri (If you are scum, I will congratulate you on a game well played and your inevitable victory)
Crys (Weak town lean)
ScubaBen (Neutral, though he has pinged me a bit all game)
Merestil Haye (Could be under the radar scum, my most likely candidate after Squid)
Flying Squid with Goggles (Insanely anti-town. If he is town, I'd go as far as to say he's essentially sabotaged town by not subbing out earlier)
------
BillMc

If Squid flips scum as expected, I think we can win by looking at two things: the vote record, and looking at who got beaten up when certain people were on a mission.

If Squid flips town, we are at LYLO.

[Chucara]

NETA: 35, 36 - who's counting

[Scuba Ben]

Two more vote analyses:
Chucara
* zuma DNV
* zuma DNV
* Colby11 (Scum)
* LaurieRN (Town)
* LightFoot (confessed Third Party)
* Total Ulla (Town)

Merestil Haye
* gnarlycharlie (Town)
* DNV
* DNV
* LaurieRN (Town)
* LightFoot (confessed Third Party)
* Total Ulla (Town)

For both of these, at Dusk they were always on the lynch leader, except when they did not vote. Chucara gets a pass for zuma's absence, while Merestil Haye claimed connectivity issues.

Still, always being on the bandwagon seems suspicious to me. How accurate is such a suspicion?

Worst case -- all three are Scum and we are at Ly/Lo. But that would mean starting with 5 Scum and a 3P, or 4 Scum + 1 recruit and a 3P.

[Chucara]

I find it highly unlikely that there are 5 scum in a 20 player game. That would be unreasonably unfair to town.

Second, my voting record is far from accurate - you are only looking at the last vote, and if we take Ulla, I only switched my vote to avoid a tie 10 posts before end of Day, when it was 2-2. Truth be told, I vaguely recall that I may have done something similar on the colby vote, where I had originally voted LaurieRn. (I didn't go back and check, so that's from memory), so I suppose I am really arguing against myself here.

Merestil Haye on the other hand voted just before deadline on the Total bandwagon that had already formed.

Man, I wish we didn't lynch Lightfoot right now.

[Scuba Ben]

And crys jumped in as the last vote on Total, joining the bandwagon. My weak trust of crys relies too much on the lack of obvious anti-Town results from the mission.

You are right that 5 scum is highly unlikely. But you do have to admit it is the worst case.

Why do you wish we still had LightFoot? She admitted to a PFK role, and if she hadn't confessed, she could have a chance right now to steal the win.

[Chucara]

I honestly don't see Lightfoot winning the game with that role, especially if as the only living poisoner. But that is irrelevant now.

5 scum players (3 alive) and we'll lose unless we pull off some magic, and Bill is scum.

[guiri]

Originally Posted by Chucara

If Squid flips scum as expected, I think we can win by looking at two things: the vote record, and looking at who got beaten up when certain people were on a mission.

What will we learn about the beatings if Squid flips scum that we can't deduce now?

- N1 someone beat Peeker, possibly Colby but probably not - two scum beaters would be a giveaway - so Bill and I are not beaters
- N2 someone double-beat Giraffe, not Scuba
- N3 no-one reported any beatings, I suspect the mission caused some sort of block
- N4 no-one reported any beatings except Chucara - which may have been related to my roleblock (otherwise what's the likelihood...)
- N5 Total reported a double beating, again not Scuba
- N6 no-one's claimed anything. Like N3, given what we know about KidV and Ulla's alignment, it's possible that Giraffe and the scum beater were blocked last Night - put to sleep

So, of the remaining players the potential beaters are:
- Crys, unlikely, proven Private, claimed Vanilla
- MHaye, possible, claimed Sergeant but Vanilla
- Chucara, unlikely, could have false-claimed N4 beating but claimed before I reported
- Bill, nope
- Scuba, double nope
- Squid, possible, claimed Corporal but Vanilla

[Flying Squid with Goggles]

Originally Posted by crys

And what about that missing space in your pm. Do you care to elaborate on that?

There is no missing space in my PM. Has anyone else even bothered to look at theirs? I bet there's some space irregularity.

guiri's post brings up the thoughts on beatings. Have there been any beatings since Giraffe died?

[Scuba Ben]

Thanks for the summary, guiri. I had to push my brain and recall why you would not have been a beater on N1 -- you were on the mission. But why are you ruling out Bill? Giraffe was the other missionary, if I recall.

Oh wait -- that's when Total had BillMc locked up, yes?

Also IIRC, Giraffe was subdued on N3 so he couldn't beat anybody up.

So I have to agree with your reasoning, and conclude we ought to lynch either Merestil Haye or Flying Squid.

Also based on your reasoning that I could not be the unaccounted-for beater-upper-of-people and that crys & Chucara probably are not, logically either me or Chucara should go on the mission Tonight.

[Scuba Ben]

Originally Posted by Flying Squid with Goggles

guiri's post brings up the thoughts on beatings. Have there been any beatings since Giraffe died?

Flying Squid, have you read all of Today? It's only 40-some posts so far.

Just in case you haven't -- what peems did you receive overNight / at Dawn?

[guiri]

Originally Posted by Scuba Ben

Also based on your reasoning that I could not be the unaccounted-for beater-upper-of-people and that crys & Chucara probably are not, logically either me or Chucara should go on the mission Tonight.

Well, I figured we could send a top suspect tonight, that's why I'm electing MHaye, and use the mission as a "jail" - possibly prevent a scum kill, maybe even killing the scum - as happened to KidV.

Squid, if the scum cop was a role cop, and since we had a full claim and I presume all town were truthful, I don't see why they'd bother investigating last Night, do you?

[Chucara]

I certainly wouldn't fall off my chair if Squid and MHaye were scum.

Guiri: No, we probably won't learn any more other than the role of Squid. And yet another voting record. However, given the cases you set up, the choices seem quite obvious.

I am fine* with going on a mission, and I am to a lesser extent fine with sending Scuba. If we both elect ourselves, we can let everyone else decide. (assuming we are both town, it shouldn't make a difference to scum, aside from a little WIFOM).

We can't send guiri, and if my feeling about him is correct, smart scum would lynch him.

*by 'am fine' I mean, vanilla is boring and for completely selfish reasons, I'd love to go



The only thing that still bothers me is.. why two NK's last night. What killed KidV?

[Scuba Ben]

Those were the delayed full reveals, Chucara. Have you been following along? :watch:

Guiri, that's a good point about using the mission as a jail/trap -- we lynch one suspect and send the other on the mission. This runs the risk of an anti-Town outcome to the mission, as noted in the game setup. We know nothing about this mission, however.

Lemme put together a list of who went on a mission and their known or claimed side.

[Scuba Ben]

Obviously everybody still Alive has claimed Town, so I'm only including alignments for those who are Death-confirmed. Please double check my list.

N1
* Guiri (claimed: chooses the mission)
* Giraffe (Town/Cop)
N2
* Scuba Ben (Spec-Firearms, claimed: Bulletproof)
N3
* KidVer (Town/vanilla)
* Total Ulla (Town/Jailor)
N4
* guiri
N5
* KidVer (Town/vanilla), killed while on mission
N6
* crys (Private, claimed: vanilla)
* guiri

Given that, it might be worth testing Chucara or M. Haye by sending one of them on the mission. I'm open to discussion.

[Chucara]

Originally Posted by Scuba Ben

Those were the delayed full reveals, Chucara. Have you been following along? :watch:

I think I have, but you lost me.. What are you referring to?