Cheap Beer Mafia -- Day Two

[The Mighty Quinn]

Mendie Taoma has been tapped out. She was

Coors -- Vanilla Town

Day Two will end at (deep breath) noon Western, 2 pm Central, 3 pm Eastern, 8 pm UK on Wednesday April 19. It takes five votes to hammer Today.

Go, Players!

(By the way, the particular brand of swill a player flips as is just color and has nothing to do with any game mechanic. If you have a favorite brand you'd like to be remembered as, just PM me)

[guiri]

Farewell Pleo and Mendie.

So if anyone was trying to save Vanta, Mahaloth is a contender with his #180. There was a little distancing between them earlier in #97 but Vanta never followed up with a vote. Pleo’s vote on Vanta was called nit-picky by Plum in #184. My vote on Vanta was questioned by Lightfoot #75 and Kai in #106. Plum in #148 and Kai in #189 stayed off the top two wagons, with reasoning.

Pleo and I agreed on Vanta but are at opposites on Sea Serpent, despite his #134.

Sending hugs to Lightfoot.

[Plumpudding]

[Mendie Taoma]

[/COLOR]

Originally Posted by The Mighty Quinn

Mendie Taoma has been tapped out. She was


Day Two will end at (deep breath) noon Western, 2 pm Central, 3 pm Eastern, 8 pm UK on Wednesday April 19. It takes five votes to hammer Today.

Go, Players!

Loading up Firefox just now, it felt as if I was going to be on the block. So no big surprise there. I even thought up what I wanted to say, if.

Perhaps, ultimately, this game was too big of a change for "" Meeko "" .

In the context of what this game is, and my various play styles, I understand that.

Doesn't mean I stop my progress towards better.

[LightFoot]

Originally Posted by guiri

Farewell Pleo and Mendie.

So if anyone was trying to save Vanta, Mahaloth is a contender with his #180. There was a little distancing between them earlier in #97 but Vanta never followed up with a vote. Pleo’s vote on Vanta was called nit-picky by Plum in #184. My vote on Vanta was questioned by Lightfoot #75 and Kai in #106. Plum in #148 and Kai in #189 stayed off the top two wagons, with reasoning.

Pleo and I agreed on Vanta but are at opposites on Sea Serpent, despite his #134.

Sending hugs to Lightfoot.

My "question" was what you saw. I was thinking there was some there ,there and wondered if you had picked up something that I had overlooked.

[guiri]

Yes, I know, was looking to see who might have been protecting Vanta.

I think they’re the best bet for toDay, we’ll learn more about Mahaloth from Vanta’s flip than about Vanta from Mahaloth’s.

[Sea Serpent]

I have to say guiri it does make me a tad nervous you are so amenable/agreeable towards me this game.



for suggesting something was wrong with Mahaloth's vanilla claim based on some other "experienced" player's view, for the asterisk saying that you could be wrong which is a given to any Town player but not to Scum, and for the vote shenanigans at the end of Day 1.

[LightFoot]

for balance
I thought Vanta was the better choice yesterDay and IF Mahaloth was trying to 'save' Vanta, this may shine a light.

The problem with a wagon this early is - since there are only 2 Scum - not going to gain solid information.

[LightFoot]

It is entirely possible that the tie was between 2 Town and the Scum stayed completely out of it.

Another angle to consider.

Yes, I am rambling aloud- however I did say I was going to share more of my thoughts
Whether it is helpful or not.

[LightFoot]

Originally Posted by Vote Counting Robot

Pleonast (4): Mendie Taoma (73), LightFoot (136), Mahaloth (180), Vanta Black (182)
Vanta Black (3): guiri (65), Pleonast (111), Sea Serpent (151)
Mahaloth (2): Plumpudding (15)[30], Kaiveran (17)[132], Plumpudding (127)[130], Plumpudding (148), Kaiveran (189)
Sea*serpent (0): Vanta Black (167)[168]
Lightfoot (0): Plumpudding (38)[66]
Mendie Taoma (0): Plumpudding (32)[37]
Kaiveran (0): Mahaloth (22)[180]
Guiri (0): Plumpudding (130)[148], Kaiveran (179)[189]
Sea Serpent (0): Plumpudding (101)[109], Vanta Black (168)[182]

thimnking

[LightFoot]

Plumpudding draws my eye here too. voting almost everyone except the 2 front runners

[guiri]

Originally Posted by Sea Serpent

I have to say guiri it does make me a tad nervous you are so amenable/agreeable towards me this game.

A little healthy paranoia is a good thing, can’t trust anyone in this game.

[guiri]

Originally Posted by Vote Counting Robot

Pleonast (4): Mendie Taoma (73), LightFoot (136), Mahaloth (180), Vanta Black (182)
Vanta Black (3): guiri (65), Pleonast (111), Sea Serpent (151)
Mahaloth (2): Plumpudding (15)[30], Kaiveran (17)[132], Plumpudding (127)[130], Plumpudding (148), Kaiveran (189)
Sea*serpent (0): Vanta Black (167)[168]
Lightfoot (0): Plumpudding (38)[66]
Mendie Taoma (0): Plumpudding (32)[37]
Kaiveran (0): Mahaloth (22)[180]
Guiri (0): Plumpudding (130)[148], Kaiveran (179)[189]
Sea Serpent (0): Plumpudding (101)[109], Vanta Black (168)[182]

FTFY

[Kaiveran]

Don't have time for detailed analysis right now, as per Night discussion, now is the previously-promised time to discuss Cop Cover!

Cop Cover is a simple and time-tested strategy which allows a Cop to stay hidden while simultaneously revealing their investigation results to the town.

It requires you to make one specific post, ideally close to 24 hours before deadline:
– If you are not the Cop, claim a town peek on your top townread of the Day.
– If you are are the Cop and have a real town peek, spend the bulk of the Day finding in-thread reasons to townread them, and then claim that peek at the designated time. This should look identical to the above case (and really is, if you think about it.)
– If you are are the Cop and have a real scum peek, use the bulk of the Day to hunt for their partner, and then (again) claim your real peek in the last 24 hours to cement your case.

That's it! And no, this isn't some BS I'm just copypasting at you, I've taken the time to figure out the application and risk/reward for this game in particular.

Advantages, in our specific situation:
– If the Cop is killed N2, then we don't lose their result, and if their peek is alive they become a confirmed townie we can rally around.
– If the Cop isn't killed N2, then whoever the dead player claimed as their peek becomes a semi-confirmed innocent known as a Seer Hunt Clear (SHC). The logic being that the scum are hunting for the Cop, and only someone that's dropping correct peeks can plausibly be the actual cop. This plus any living players that the Cop has peeks on can leave us in a very favorable position on D3, perhaps even locking in a town win if the Cop is alive with two innos (or even inno+SHC.)
– If the Cop has a scum peek, the delay in claiming doesn't give the peeked scum the normal opportunity to clam up and deny the town information; they'll be more likely to keep talking so they (or their partner) doesn't explode, which leaves us in a much better position to take them down.

Disadvantages:
– As a direct corollary to that last advantage, anyone claiming a fake peek on the scum exposes themselves as not-the-Cop, giving the scum a smaller pool of potential to shoot in.
– Poor execution (such as turning on your supposed town-peek post claim, or a Cop poorly fabricating reasons to townread their real town-peek) can also blow cover.
– If the Cop has a scum peek, they don't get the tantalizing opportunity to solo hero-solve the game by their results alone.

I think the potential advantages far outweigh the disadvantages though. Waiting until the last 24 hours gives every player ample time to put in the effort they need for good cover, and I don't think a Cop trying to solo-hero-scan both scum is a viable strategy. The odds are against you and you have many teammates you could involved to improve your chances. Also, if you survive to D3 there's a decent chance you basically solved the whole game anyway.

But those are my nucular takes on the matter, and in any case it does require us to be on the same page about it. Half-assed cover is no cover at all. In the interest of effective cat-herding, I am open to any questions and clarification requests, but you might have to @ me to get an answer until late Monday/early Tuesday.

But you don't have to take my word for it.

[Vanta Black]

Originally Posted by Sea Serpent

I have to say guiri it does make me a tad nervous you are so amenable/agreeable towards me this game.



for suggesting something was wrong with Mahaloth's vanilla claim based on some other "experienced" player's view, for the asterisk saying that you could be wrong which is a given to any Town player but not to Scum, and for the vote shenanigans at the end of Day 1.

So if it's a given I shouldn't say it?

I do overuse the asterisk. Not just in mafia games, but in general. It's weak. And it's probably why in mafia games I either get mizzled D1 or spend the entire game being a vote leader every single day.

I don't consider saving myself as a particular shenanigan. I've done shenaniganier things.

[Vanta Black]

Originally Posted by guiri

Yes, I know, was looking to see who might have been protecting Vanta.

I think they’re the best bet for toDay, we’ll learn more about Mahaloth from Vanta’s flip than about Vanta from Mahaloth’s.

What are you going to learn about Maha from my flip?

No one was protecting Vanta except Vanta. If we want to learn about Mahaloth we should

Originally Posted by Vote Counting Robot

Pleonast (4): Mendie Taoma (73), LightFoot (136), Mahaloth (180), Vanta Black (182)
Vanta Black (3): guiri (65), Pleonast (111), Sea Serpent (151)
Mahaloth (2): Plumpudding (15)[30], Kaiveran (17)[132], Plumpudding (127)[130], Plumpudding (148), Kaiveran (189)
Sea*serpent (0): Vanta Black (167)[168]
Lightfoot (0): Plumpudding (38)[66]
Mendie Taoma (0): Plumpudding (32)[37]
Kaiveran (0): Mahaloth (22)[180]
Guiri (0): Plumpudding (130)[148], Kaiveran (179)[189]
Sea Serpent (0): Plumpudding (101)[109], Vanta Black (168)[182]

[Vanta Black]

Okay let me try that again.

If we want to learn about Mahaloth we should vote him.

The above was me attempting to check the vote count before actually putting down a vote, sorry.

[Vanta Black]

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

pretend I quoted this whole big thing or part of it

That article you linked to? I think TMQ pointed it out and presented that as an option in a game a couple of years ago.

Quinn was scum in that game.

Anyway I tried. I got to the "seer hunt clear" part and MEGO. Either it's poorly written or I am dumb, and I hope I don't sound wishy-washy when I say those two things are not mutually exclusive. But I will attempt it again.

[Vanta Black]

Anyone around?

[LightFoot]

I have some time

[Vanta Black]

What do you think of the cop cover thing?

[LightFoot]

Originally Posted by Vanta Black

What do you think of the cop cover thing?

I get the concept - and the possible advantage.

There are a few bits I don't quite see

Disadvantages:
– As a direct corollary to that last advantage, anyone claiming a fake peek on the scum exposes themselves as not-the-Cop, giving the scum a smaller pool of potential to shoot in.
– Poor execution (such as turning on your supposed town-peek post claim, or a Cop poorly fabricating reasons to townread their real town-peek) can also blow cover.
– If the Cop has a scum peek, they don't get the tantalizing opportunity to solo hero-solve the game by their results alone.

I need to re-re-read this to sort it

[LightFoot]

1 if Y makes a fake peek on x claiming x is Town then Scum Know Y is not the cop.

2 if A fakes B is Town but turns around and changes their mind= Not covering the real cop

3 not sure

[Vanta Black]

I can see #2 there. I can't quite see #1. Not quite.

[Vanta Black]

I think this cop cover thing would work better on a bigger game. I don't know why I think that.

[LightFoot]

Originally Posted by LightFoot

1 if Y makes a fake peek on x claiming x is Town then Scum Know Y is not the cop. If x is really Scum

2 if A fakes B is Town but turns around and changes their mind= Not covering the real cop

3 not sure

edit with out edit

[Vanta Black]

I think I got that bold part, yeah. Clearer.

It is the "seer hunt clear" part that I can't get my mind around, but I don't think that matters. The important part seems to be protecting the cop and the cop having a few known townies at end game, if I'm reading it right.

It is sounding a little better to me except for the "if you pick a scum to clear" part.

[LightFoot]

Pick your top Town read I suppose

another addition would be if more than one person clears the same player it defeats the purpose

[LightFoot]

Kai
perhaps easier terminology for many would be to share their "strongest Town read" in your proposed time frame.

[LightFoot]

– If the Cop has a scum peek, the delay in claiming doesn't give the peeked scum the normal opportunity to clam up and deny the town information; they'll be more likely to keep talking so they (or their partner) doesn't explode, which leaves us in a much better position to take them down.

I am not sure how this one works though.

[LightFoot]

Is the suggestion that the real cop wait until the last 24 to claim their Scum read (revealing their identity) and hope that there are enough paying attention to re-enforce the vote?

[guiri]

Originally Posted by Vanta Black

Okay let me try that again.

If we want to learn about Mahaloth we should vote him.

The above was me attempting to check the vote count before actually putting down a vote, sorry.

That’s not how guilty by association works.

[guiri]

For the cop cover, I think I get most of it too, but not 100%.

- everyone claims their top town read with reasoning 24 hours before EoD
- the cop’s result(s) will be known if the cop is killed
- the top town read of a player who is killed and is not revealed to be the cop will be “seer hunt cleared” as scum would only have attempted to kill someone with an accurate result
- players should try to stick with their town reads otherwise scum will know that the top town read was faked and will look elsewhere for the cop
- players whose top town reads are actually scum will reduce the pool of players for the scum to hunt the cop in

As long as all living players actually have a top town read they strongly believe in, and all participate, this could work fine. I don’t see the risk in multiple players having the same top town lead. Where it gets murky is if the cop does not have a town result, they just go for a 1 for 1 trade, risking a counter-claim?

[LightFoot]

Originally Posted by guiri

For the cop cover, I think I get most of it too, but not 100%.~

As long as all living players actually have a top town read they strongly believe in, and all participate, this could work fine. I don’t see the risk in multiple players having the same top town lead. Where it gets murky is if the cop does not have a town result, they just go for a 1 for 1 trade, risking a counter-claim?

If multi players have the same Top Town read Scum can/will note that only one of them is the Cop.
Well -no- not really a problem when I re-type it.-ok

of course the Cop will make a top Town lean post as well
It will be the cops job to make a case against the found Scum .
their choice to make the 1:1 trade off, -if the majority doesn't agree-but they don't have to the first one.
We can afford it once if it is determined worth the trade for one more result.

[LightFoot]

after sleeping on it, I think the idea is spreadsheet worthy

[guiri]

I don’t know, the Day seems quite quiet so far, 4 votes down, neither of the candidates have voted, nor Kai. Spreadsheet feels like overkill, unless it’s something you just find useful to work out your thoughts..

[LightFoot]

Originally Posted by guiri

I don’t know, the Day seems quite quiet so far, 4 votes down, neither of the candidates have voted, nor Kai. Spreadsheet feels like overkill, unless it’s something you just find useful to work out your thoughts..

It is my way to keep track of multiple Day's results for future reference
It also keeps note of the 'peeks' each Day

[guiri]

Is your vote on Mahaloth just to prevent a hammer, or do you think Mahaloth is a better candidate than Vanta toDay?

[LightFoot]

Originally Posted by guiri

Is your vote on Mahaloth just to prevent a hammer, or do you think Mahaloth is a better candidate than Vanta toDay?

Hammer prevention
also to in theory generate discussion.

I am working on making time for more research.

The hammer creates a situation where Scum can coast to an easy mizzle

-if that makes sense

[guiri]

Makes sense, but since I think Vanta’s scum, I’m not too concerned about scum quick-hammering them.

[LightFoot]

I have reviewed Mendie's posts in an effort to 'see' why she was the NK.

my knee says misdirection - she showed some attention to Plumpudding (which is on my possible Scum list)


there was the Night comment

something ulterior is in the late votes.

But would Scum do that

I welcome all other observations

[guiri]

My guess is they suspected she was the seer.
It’s somewhat unusual for Mendie to be NK’d but Vanta’s recommendation that Mendie be investigated and Mendie’s reaction may have set off some alarms.

[guiri]

Originally Posted by Vanta Black

So there's this cop/doc/kill thing I think is very helpful. We don't have a doc or a vig but do have a cop so it could provide some guidance there.

Investigate: Mendie, she's making entirely too much sense in this game!
Protect: Plumpudding, no particular reason, just a gut feeling
Kill: Well obviously at some point unless something changes this has to be Pleo for me.

I don't really like doing a town-to-scum listing this early in the game but I haven't changed my feelings on Mahaloth, and would like to see more content from LightFoot, who has posted a lot but without a lot of content.

Will be back later, probably, but this is where I stand for now

Originally Posted by Mendie Taoma

So, I did skim this while at work today, and I wanted to comment, if I do nothing else with the limited time I have left for today. [And by that, I mean, "Thursday" the 13th, even if it is 00:14 on Friday, as I type.] I obviously, didn't think it would be prudent to "Answer" to it, while on the clock, dodging customers at my register.

"" Investigate: Mendie, she's making entirely too much sense in this game! ""

So. About this. I have been trying to work on myself. In some places [Gender Questioning] this is more apparent, than in others [Hopefuly my Mafia play can catch up].

I'm not sure if pointing this out is "good form" or whatever, or if pointing it out, "kills" it, much like a goose laying golden eggs. My desire to have a numbered outline was always there, and I tried in previous games to try versions of it.



I'm just not sure what to add to the claims that I be investigated. We don't need that Wine.


Plumpudding You are razor thin on getting me to switch votes. Of course yours [as of now] would be a policy vote based on the spam. I'm not sure what else, all, to say here, and I recognize it is in poor form to vote you, just for that, but it is up there.

At present, I still feel better served with my vote where it is.


Not that we are taking votes on who to investigate, but, well, there is a reason I bring this thought up, immediately after the above two paragraphs.

Especially with all of the grudge / joke / immediate aftermath of the previous game still in the air, I'm not too sure D1 is going to be much more productive. The odds, and the fact that this is Mafia after all, kinda telegraph to me, that we are going to lose one of our own tonight. In the midst of all of that, I don't really want to change what I have.

Hopefully, we have a solid direction come D2.



Not to put too fine a point on this, but I wonder if we won't have too fine of a point on our game by then.

No _real_ reason to believe that this game is gonna have curveball. Really, there isn't.

But, even in games that are played straight, curves appear. Hurleys get shot. Captains fail to proofread maths. A Cluster of people go off and do the same things, all at once, orchestrated with each other, or not.

[Dammit, I needed a third thing here, and I can't Hi Opal out of it either, --- I'm just saying Real Life has been known to screw games up before. [Games Won and Lost, because either Scum Team voted for someone, all at once, or Townies _not_ voting at all ] I'm not hiding anything, and while I may be known to have my head in the clouds, I am trying to stay with me feet on the ground here. In so many words, Buckle Up / Bumpy Night. ]

Just, I hope Day 2 can be day 2, and not more day 1. That Drinks and Grudges can be checked.

As I mentioned, Real Life is going to get me, here, and now, as it is. Further, I think I'm just over the point of digression.

sort of reads like Mendie expected to have something to work with D2, but ymmv.

[LightFoot]

That is what I was looking at as well

[guiri]

@Mahaloth, everything OK?

[LightFoot]

LightFoot 19
guiri 12
Vanta Black 9
Sea Serpent 1
Plumpudding 1
The Mighty Quinn 1
Kaiveran 1
Mendie Taoma 1
And we have less than 2 days to go
Where is everyone?

[LightFoot]

Originally Posted by Plumpudding

[vote]Mahaloth[vote]

This drop and run I don't like


They are not the only player that posted just once, but with a naked vote - it raises an eyebrow!

[LightFoot]

Not sure how we are going to get anywhere with only 3 of us playing

[Vanta Black]

This is kind of frustrating for sure.

[Mahaloth]

Whoa, don't hammer me, baby!

As claimed on Day 1, I'm just boring old Vanilla Town, which means I have no special insight or information to contribute.

I felt Pleo was scum, but that was pure vibe and obviously wrong. I have no feeling on Vanta or Plum.