Aliens: Day 3

[vindictus]

There is a large perimeter to cover and you all need to rest. You send out one man patrols, sweeping with motion trackers and monitored by security cameras to check the barricades. Each patrol is a long, tense hour. Empty blip after empty blip.



The patrols pass uneventfully, and in the morning you assemble for a somber breakfast and prepare yourself for the grim task of rooting out who amongst you is a company agent. It is then that someone says 'Hey, were's Newt?'

Realizing she slept away from the marines in the only bed in sick bay, you walk over and find her still asleep in bed. Then you realize she isn't breathing. She has been suffocated in her sleep.

It is clear that AskThePizzaGuy (Rebecca 'Newt' Jordan) was a loyal Colonial Marine, and not infected.



Roster (character):
1) Bear_Neno (Lt. Gorman)
2) Scathach (Sgt. Apone)
3) Zeener Diode (Cpl. Dwayne Hicks)
4) KidVermicious (Cpl. Ferro)
5) gnarlycharlie (Cpl. Dietrich)
6) FlyingSquid (Pvt. Hudson)
7) SisterCoyote (Pvt. Vasquez) Killed Night 1
8) BillMc (Pvt. Crowe)
9) Lightfoot (Pvt. Spunkmeyer)
10) BobArrgh (Pvt. Drake)
11) DogMom (Pvt. Frost)
12) Colby11 (Pvt. Wierzbowski) Lynched Day 2
13) Brewha (Bishop)
14) Rabid Renaissance (Carter Burke)
15) Silver Jan (Ellen Ripley) Lynched Day 1
16) AskThePizzaGuy (Rebecca 'Newt' Jordan) Killed Night 2

Day 3 will end Thursday at 9:22:00 PM PST 6/14/2012

[gnarlycharlie]

yup. scum are definitely taking out those who are usually mislynched.

[Zeener Diode]

O MY GAWD THEY KILLED NEWT!

You bastards!

[KidVermicious]

Originally Posted by gnarlycharlie

yup. scum are definitely taking out those who are usually mislynched.

So what if they are? Are you suggesting that we target players who normally survive to endgame?

[KidVermicious]

, because nothing's changed since I voted him yesterday, and Colby's lynch saved his bacon.

[Zeener Diode]

Originally Posted by gnarlycharlie

yup. scum are definitely taking out those who are usually mislynched.

I beg to differ. SisC and Pizza are two people I'd listen to if I was certain they were Town. (And conversely if they were scum I would fear for our souls.)

I think scum are playing smart. They're removing the smarter players and leaving the rest of us to eat ourselves. Pizza had some insight on how to find scum and he's dead. I'll bet anyone an Internet dollar that the next person lynched will be town.

[gnarlycharlie]

Originally Posted by KidVermicious

So what if they are? Are you suggesting that we target players who normally survive to endgame?

yes, but not necessarily toDay. obviously if you find someone scummy and happens to fall under that category, go for it. s/he may be scum or may be the infectee. this strategy would likely be best if we are near or at LyLo.

Originally Posted by Zeener Diode

I beg to differ. SisC and Pizza are two people I'd listen to if I was certain they were Town. (And conversely if they were scum I would fear for our souls.)

I think scum are playing smart. They're removing the smarter players and leaving the rest of us to eat ourselves. Pizza had some insight on how to find scum and he's dead. I'll bet anyone an Internet dollar that the next person lynched will be town.

really? so all scum in previous games were not being smart? granted they are good players, i would have chosen Pizza first or Bill. i may be wrong but i don't think what i'm saying is unreasonable. your dismissal sounds like trying to put out a fire before it grows.

[Brewha]

Is there much crossover between raffer and doper/idle mafiosoes? I recognize a few of you, but am unsure as to whether or not you guys are playing under the same names.

Here’s the thing. The guy that lasts til the end? The guy that is always under scrutiny but rarely lynched? That guy is me. If I were not me but had played with me, I would choose me as the incubator.

I hate to say it, but I am really a great choice. And, if I do have an alien baby – the mafia is going to be people who have played with me before. It’s a long shot, but I don’t know any other way for the town to have a chance. Especially with nothing but mislynches and townie night kills.

Barring a better strategy:

[Brewha]

So, I tried the [vote] tags. Does that count? Or do I need to put the word "vote" in my vote? I guess I could just not vote to get the same effect - but I want to participate.

Also - I guess I should have clarified. If I am the incubator - that means I am town and will win with a town win, right?

[Scuba Ben]

Originally Posted by Brewha

So, I tried the [vote] tags. Does that count? Or do I need to put the word "vote" in my vote? I guess I could just not vote to get the same effect - but I want to participate.

NOT A MOD

The auto count script really likes it if you say [vote]Vote YerMum[/vote].

[LightFoot]

I’m still not happy with Rabid ( yes I can be a pit bull on a case) But
I’m seeing something else that bothers me more
D1 Bear had only ONE thing to say, and voted Town
D2 he had very few ( 4) comments and they were mainly about how he had nothing to say
AND he didn’t even vote.

This is highly suspect to me.

[DogMom]

[OOG]I've put in a request for a sub; I just got a crapload of stuff dumped on me and I won't have time to play. Sorry guys, I was enjoying what little I could of playing.[/OOG]

[Flying Squid with Goggles]

Sorry to hear that DogMom - best wishes with all the stuff that's been dumped on you.



OK, this is gonna be a long list, and I’m running out of lunchtime to type it up, so it will probably be split into at least two parts. This will be just A-K, I’ll have to do the rest of the alphabet and a summation of my thoughts/suspicions after work.


Bear_Nenno: Voted Silver Jan D1, Self through inaction D2
Only 6 posts, mostly quiet.
Significant posts:
D1.036 Votes Silver Jan


BillMc: Voted self through inaction both D1 and D2
Zero posts, just like the Washington Generals



BobArrgh: Voted Silver Jan D1, Brewha D2
26 posts, low to medium activity
Significant posts:
D1.050 Votes Silver Jan for missing # of scum, possible PIS
D2.075 Votes Brewha after wavering between voting for a non-participant or a low level participant.


Brewha: Voted pizza (invalid) D1, Self through inaction D2, Self by action D3
9 posts, low activity
Significant posts:
D1.059 Vote pizza – difference between this and other games
N2.005 Note sure what to talk about
D3.008 Votes self – thinks self infected?


DogMom: Voted Silver Jan D1, Colby D2
7 posts, low activity, requested sub
Significant posts:
D1.040 Votes Silver Jan for attempting to deflect attention
D2.043 Votes Colby for an unreasoned vote for Zeener


gnarlycharlie: Voted KidVermicious Colby D1, Colby D2
11 posts, low activity
Significant posts:
D1.078 Prefers Colby, but OK with Silver lynch
D2.040 Vote Colby, quote KidV and Rabid
N2.011 Thesis on who is likely to be infected
D3.007 Reasoning for Zeener vote

KidVermicious: Voted gnarlycharlie pizza D1, DogMom Scathach D2
30 posts, active
Significant posts:
D1.012 Vote gnarlycharlie for rapid vote on BobArrgh
D1.033 Emphasize standard play in vanilla game
D1.075 Quote Rabid regarding logic of the vote, Vote pizza, why quiet?
N1.019 Emphasize that we don’t lynch because we think someone is the infectee
N1.024 Not calling out specific players – addressing everyone
D2.003 Vote DogMom for few posts but focusing on Jan
D2.076 Vote Scathach for impression of Rabid as defensive
D3.005 Vote Scathach – nothing much has changed since yesterday

[Bear_Nenno]

Originally Posted by Brewha

Is there much crossover between raffer and doper/idle mafiosoes? I recognize a few of you, but am unsure as to whether or not you guys are playing under the same names.

Here’s the thing. The guy that lasts til the end? The guy that is always under scrutiny but rarely lynched? That guy is me. If I were not me but had played with me, I would choose me as the incubator.

I hate to say it, but I am really a great choice. And, if I do have an alien baby – the mafia is going to be people who have played with me before. It’s a long shot, but I don’t know any other way for the town to have a chance. Especially with nothing but mislynches and townie night kills.

Barring a better strategy:

Well who have you played with before? Who are the few you do recognize? It seems we would need at least that information to gain anything from your lynch, provided you are even infected in the first place.

[Bear_Nenno]

Originally Posted by Zeener Diode

I think scum are playing smart. They're removing the smarter players and leaving the rest of us to eat ourselves. Pizza had some insight on how to find scum and he's dead. I'll bet anyone an Internet dollar that the next person lynched will be town.

Lightfoot and KidV were two of the best scum hunters last game. Lightfoot especially. Unless she is scum, then either they are not targeting the smart players but the endgamers as suggested.

[BobArrgh]

Brewha, I don't believe we've ever played together before, so I don't know anything about your style. However, I understand what you are trying to do, and I support it. I want to observe the reactions, though, before I put my vote down.

[Schmunions]

sorry! wrong thread!

[Brewha]

Originally Posted by Bear_Nenno

Well who have you played with before? Who are the few you do recognize? It seems we would need at least that information to gain anything from your lynch, provided you are even infected in the first place.

Unfortunately, the short list of players that I've played with in this game make up 3 of the 4 dead colonial marines. So, this does lend credence to my conspiracy theory that at least one of the scum know my posting style and know that I'll come up with a crazy theory (yeah just like this one!) that will ensure that I live to the end since I'll draw alot of scrutiny - but not enough to be lynched. And, generally, I'm so far off that the scum don't night kill me. Except this time - where they wouldn't if I were indeed infected.

Don't WIFOM drunk ladies and gentlemen. It never makes sense to anyone else!

[KidVermicious]

Originally Posted by Brewha

Unfortunately, the short list of players that I've played with in this game make up 3 of the 4 dead colonial marines. So, this does lend credence to my conspiracy theory that at least one of the scum know my posting style and know that I'll come up with a crazy theory (yeah just like this one!) that will ensure that I live to the end since I'll draw alot of scrutiny - but not enough to be lynched. And, generally, I'm so far off that the scum don't night kill me. Except this time - where they wouldn't if I were indeed infected.

Don't WIFOM drunk ladies and gentlemen. It never makes sense to anyone else!

Wait - the fact that players you've played with are dead and Town proves that players you've played with are Scum and have infected you because you're going to live until endgame?

[Bear_Nenno]

Originally Posted by brewha

So, this does lend credence to my conspiracy theory that at least one of the scum know my posting style and know that I'll come up with a crazy theory

This just doesn't follow.

The first part of your theory only made a little sense. The drunken follow-up to it makes absolutely no sense. Maybe it's the alcohol.
Regardless, who is the one player left? If your theory is to be believed, then that sole remaining person who knows you and your style, (and that of all your buddies he killed) is likely one of the scum. Right? Especially if your lynch reveals a baby alien. So, who is it?

[BobArrgh]

According to the rules, the tiebreaker is the player who reached the vote total first. How would that work in the following scenario:

PlayerAAA reaches 4 votes.
PlayerBBB reaches 4 votes.
Two players unvote PlayerAAA, dropping his vote count to 2; PlayerBBB is the lynch candidate.
Late in the Day, PlayerAAA regains 2 votes, causing a tie.

Is PlayerAAA the lynchee because he reached 4 votes first, or is PlayerBBB the lynchee because once she was in the lead, a new race condition had been created?

[Brewha]

Lemme rephrase. 3 of the 4 people already dead are people I've played with in the past.

Look, I don't even know if my theory is to be believed. I just know that I have a history of making it to endgame alive. Were I not me, and I were scum, and I were playing with me (yeah lots of ifs) - I would pick me as the incubator.

That's the only theory I have to work with. No one's talking and all we have to work with is dead townies.

[KidVermicious]

Originally Posted by Brewha

Lemme rephrase. 3 of the 4 people already dead are people I've played with in the past.

But what is it that you think that means?

[gnarlycharlie]

Originally Posted by Brewha

Lemme rephrase. 3 of the 4 people already dead are people I've played with in the past.

Look, I don't even know if my theory is to be believed. I just know that I have a history of making it to endgame alive. Were I not me, and I were scum, and I were playing with me (yeah lots of ifs) - I would pick me as the incubator.

That's the only theory I have to work with. No one's talking and all we have to work with is dead townies.

i've played with you in the past. am i the one you're referring to or someone else?

[Brewha]

Originally Posted by KidVermicious

But what is it that you think that means?

Not sure really. Sister Coyote and ATPG are both people with whom I'm familiar and were both night killed.

Could they have been killed because they knew me and because I'm infected? Unlikely.

Really it means nothing. The only thing that does make sense is that if I'm infected, the person who decided to choose me as the infected is someone I've played with before.

GnarlyCharlie, there's you and 3 other still living people that I've played with in the past. Whether or not they remember me is in question.

[vindictus]

Originally Posted by BobArrgh

According to the rules, the tiebreaker is the player who reached the vote total first. How would that work in the following scenario:

PlayerAAA reaches 4 votes.
PlayerBBB reaches 4 votes.
Two players unvote PlayerAAA, dropping his vote count to 2; PlayerBBB is the lynch candidate.
Late in the Day, PlayerAAA regains 2 votes, causing a tie.

Is PlayerAAA the lynchee because he reached 4 votes first, or is PlayerBBB the lynchee because once she was in the lead, a new race condition had been created?

Your second scenario is correct. The tie is broken based on who reached the *current* tie first, not a previous tie.

On another note, I need a replacement for Dogmom. Brownie55 hasn't responded to my post.

[Flying Squid with Goggles]

… Continuing from where I left off:

Lightfoot: Voted Colby D1, Rabid D2
21 posts, medium activity
Significant posts:
D1.070 Voted Colby
D2.005 Looks at wagon on Silver Jan
D2.061 Dislike the responses to earlier WoW, Vote Rabid
D3.011 Examines Bear's contribution, Votes Bear


Rabid Renaissance: Voted Silver Jan D1, Scathach D2
43 posts, active
Significant posts:
D1.067 Votes Silver Jan, with some reservations
D1.083 Responds to KidV
N1.011 Assess D1 results
D2.007 "Lack of meat"
D2.104 Response to and thoughts on Scathach, Vote Scathach


Scathach: Voted Silver Jan D1, Rabid Renaissance D2
20 posts, medium activity
Significant posts:
D1.026 Vote for Silver Jan
D2.032 Quoting Rabid, short comment
D2.044 Vote Rabid


Zeener Diode: Voted BillMc D1, Colby D2
15 posts, medium activity
Significant posts:
D1.063 Joke vote, but it stayed there
D2.083 Comment on Colby not making sense, Vote Colby
D2.091 Comments on Rabid, Brewha, lack of meat
D3.006 Comment on gnarly theory


** Obviously I should mention that I do not take notes on my own posts, and if I were scum, you wouldn't be able to trust me on those notes anyway, so I have not included myself in this list, but my voting record for basis of comparison is: D1 Silver Jan pizza, D2 Zeener - use the appropriate paranoia required in Mafia.

Gonna have to think about this a little, but I'm still liking my Zeener vote from yesterday for now.

[Flying Squid with Goggles]

Now for more of a real reads list & suspicion list:

Very Suspicious Of:
Bear - very quiet in comparison to last game, not much scum hunting
Brewha - I don't really like all this "I've got nothing to go on" and "I'll vote for myself" but I can't tell if that's self-destructive Townie or Scum that is good at acting
gnarlycharlie - I'm not sure about all this theorizing about the infectee, could it be gnarly_Town has nothing else to go on, or that a gnarly_Scum doesn't want to have anything else to go on?
Zeener - Looks suspicious, but D1 should carry a lot less weight than D2. But does not seem to be lurking as much on review as I thought ey was. Kinda borderline between Very and Moderately suspicious


Moderately Suspicious Of:
BillMc - Very very quiet, but he doesn't seem the sort to pull a zuma (from Hill House)
BobArrgh - I see the skimming the thread part of the Jan vote, but how is it PIS? Not sure what to think of the Brewha vote, but I thought about placing one myself, so that's not too bad
Lightfoot - doing some scum hunting, but low activity
Rabid Renaissance - not sure about this Rabid/Scathach drama, but I'm afraid it might be Town on Town like there was so much of in The Little Mermaid
Scathach - same as above, I find the drama confusing


Slightly Suspicious Of:
DogMom - low activity, but seems like RL issues and not trying to lurk, is engaging other posters
KidV - Seems very active and interesting in analyzing other's posts, doing scum hunting


There is no-one but myself that I'm not suspicious of, given the actions of Giraffe in Little Mermaid ... and now that I think about it, I should be suspicious of myself because I might be the infectee. But I think we settled this on D1 - it doesn't help to speculate too much on who might be infected until we actually catch some scum (I'm lookin' at you Brewha - nicely but please take that vote off yourself and put it somewhere that might be scum and not just infectee... unless you are scum, of course .)


Based on this reassessment, I'm going to change my vote to Bear, for as others have pointed out, the loud proclamation that there's nothing to talk about or go on, and semi-lurking quiet behavior.


I also would really love to see suspicion lists from as many other people as feel comfortable posting them, it will definitely give us more to talk about if we can compare suspicion lists.

[DogMom]

(Trying to participate at least a little given the problem of finding a replacement and it's not fair to the mod or the players to not play at all)

- and on that note: BillMc isn't not only "very very quiet" he hasn't participated at all. Not one post in any game-thread except the signup. While I of all people understand about Real Life Biting You In The Butt, this ain't normal even for Bill.

He could be Scum trying to lay real low - in a fast-moving game like this one, it's an effective ploy, especially since we're also infectee-hunting and may be more distracted than usual based on that.
He could be Town as well, obviously, but we won't know without either the death of Completely INactive Bill, or with his participation.

For now, therefore:

[DogMom]

NETA: that last bit:

we won't know without either the death of Completely INactive Bill, or with his participation.

should read
"we won't know unless Completely Inactive Bill's death or he becomes Active Bill and participates."

[Brewha]

Originally Posted by Flying Squid with Goggles

Brewha - I don't really like all this "I've got nothing to go on" and "I'll vote for myself" but I can't tell if that's self-destructive Townie or Scum that is good at acting

I'ts neither - I assure you.

It's quiet in here. Real quiet. Day three ends in like 30 hours and we're still on the first page of discussion? I can't get a read on anyone if no one posts.


Of course as much as I suck at this game - it's not like I could get a real read on anyone anyway!

[Zeener Diode]

Originally Posted by Flying Squid with Goggles

Gonna have to think about this a little, but I'm still liking my Zeener vote from yesterday for now.

Vote Zeener Diode

Originally Posted by Flying Squid with Goggles

Now for more of a real reads list & suspicion list:

Very Suspicious Of:
Bear - very quiet in comparison to last game, not much scum hunting


Based on this reassessment, I'm going to change my vote to Bear, for as others have pointed out, the loud proclamation that there's nothing to talk about or go on, and semi-lurking quiet behavior.


I also would really love to see suspicion lists from as many other people as feel comfortable posting them, it will definitely give us more to talk about if we can compare suspicion lists.

Unvote Zeener Diode

Vote Bear_Nenno

Really? You post a lengthy introspect of all players (participating or not), then suddenly change your mind in under an hour?

[vindictus]

Dogmom has been replace by Brownie55

[Rabid Renaissance]

Originally Posted by gnarlycharlie

yup. scum are definitely taking out those who are usually mislynched.

Sorry, but this is parsing more and more like vapor-analysis each time I read it.

You're suggesting that the scum team has reviewed every game we've each played in and determined people who are 'usually mislynched', whatever that means. Or, you as an individual happen to think that the people who have been NK'd so far are 'usually mislynched', whatever that means.

Neither of those things is a very useful tool for the Town as a whole to base analysis on.

Pizza also had some advice about scum hunting in Vanilla games that he offered to share, and regardless of when or if he was lynched in the previous games that I've seen him play, he has had some good insights as a Townie. Those things, I think, probably had more to do with him being targeted than his mislynch history.

I see others are have already taken you to task on this point, so I'll stop there.

As for Zeener, who is positing the theory that 'smart players' are being targeted, that's also a very subjective analysis tool that won't scale well to the Town as a whole.

As for alleged drama between Scathach and myself, there is none. I have not felt personally attacked and I hope that I'm not coming across like I'm personally attacking Scathach. I frankly find the qualifier of 'drama' to be way too heavy handed and potentially manipulative on Squid's part, and my suspicions of Scathach remain.

[Rabid Renaissance]

Welcome to the fray, Brownie. Thanks for helping out.

[Rabid Renaissance]

Originally Posted by Brewha

It's quiet in here. Real quiet. Day three ends in like 30 hours and we're still on the first page of discussion? I can't get a read on anyone if no one posts.

One quick comment on this, I'm a busy person and I did check the boards a few times waiting for a sign that Day 3 had started that doesn't require clicking through 3 subforums...like a "hey, Day 3 has started!" in the last Night thread.

I may sound like a nag, but I would not be surprised if some of the non participation we're having is due to people not being aware that the cycles are starting.

[Zeener Diode]

Originally Posted by Rabid Renaissance

As for Zeener, who is positing the theory that 'smart players' are being targeted, that's also a very subjective analysis tool that won't scale well to the Town as a whole.

I don't mean to sound disrespectful to current players by suggesting some are "smarter" than others. It's my experience with those two that prompts me to consider them more of a threat to scum than the rest because I haven't played as much with the rest of you. In several games with SisC I've come to respect her scum-hunting, and when she's town she's usually targeted Night 1. And though I haven't played as much with Pizza, he's impressed me as a sharp cookie (pardon the allusion). It makes sense scum would want them gone. I don't consider myself as much a threat (I get lucky more than not), so my prediction is I'll be lynched before NKed. The next player NKed will reveal a lot about the scum team.

[Scáthach]

Originally Posted by Rabid Renaissance

I hope that I'm not coming across like I'm personally attacking Scathach.

[oog]
Not in the slightest.
[/oog]

[brownie55]

Happy to be in the game.

[Rabid Renaissance]

Originally Posted by Zeener Diode

I don't mean to sound disrespectful to current players by suggesting some are "smarter" than others. It's my experience with those two that prompts me to consider them more of a threat to scum than the rest because I haven't played as much with the rest of you. In several games with SisC I've come to respect her scum-hunting, and when she's town she's usually targeted Night 1. And though I haven't played as much with Pizza, he's impressed me as a sharp cookie (pardon the allusion). It makes sense scum would want them gone. I don't consider myself as much a threat (I get lucky more than not), so my prediction is I'll be lynched before NKed. The next player NKed will reveal a lot about the scum team.

I didn't mean scalable to the Town in that sense, I mean that one person's subjective views on things like who is 'smart', 'good', 'smart townie', 'smart scum', 'often mislynched' are probably not going to be compelling pieces of evidence likely to convince the other members of the Town to throw down a vote or not, depending on what sort of case you are trying to make with such justifications.

[Scáthach]

Originally Posted by Flying Squid with Goggles

I also would really love to see suspicion lists from as many other people as feel comfortable posting them, it will definitely give us more to talk about if we can compare suspicion lists.

I think this is a great idea - and would definitely help with some of the difficulty people have said they've had trying to find something to talk about.

1) Bear_Neno (Lt. Gorman) - Very suspicious. Hasn't appeared to scum hunt at all. Didn't vote yesterday and today has only posted to discuss metagamey analysis.

2) Scathach (Sgt. Apone) - So obviously innocent a halo of shining light surrounds her

3) Zeener Diode (Cpl. Dwayne Hicks) - No real read. Has not stood out either good or bad.

4) KidVermicious (Cpl. Ferro) - Mildly suspicious. Has been relatively quiet I think. Only 5 posts yesterday of which two were fluff. Sort of lurking in plain sight.

5) gnarlycharlie (Cpl. Dietrich) - Mildly suspicious. Said he was going to try a new playstyle, but it hasn't really been in evidence. Could have been scum who decided to play it safe after getting their role. Bit meta though.

6) FlyingSquid (Pvt. Hudson) - Mild town. Possibly habit but I tend to think that scum don't put as much effort into all the links and going through people person by person.

8) BillMc (Pvt. Crowe) - Riddle wrapped in a mystery wrapped in an enigma.

9) Lightfoot (Pvt. Spunkmeyer) - No real read. Has at least been scumhunting.

10) BobArrgh (Pvt. Drake) - Mild suspicion. A lot of theory talk - possibly lurking in plain sight. Family issues could explain a lot though.

11) DogMom (Pvt. Frost) - No read. Had to sub out.

13) Brewha (Bishop) - No real read. Voting himself makes me kind of raise an eyebrow, because it seems like a distraction.

14) Rabid Renaissance (Carter Burke) - I keep flipping and flopping. Moderately suspicious. I still think that responding only to posts about yourself will not help find scum. Maybe a playstyle clash.


Lurking in plain sight - plain and simple. Keeps saying he finds it difficult to find a topic to talk about but conspicuously avoids mentioning any case on any player. Instead only comes in today to comment on brewha's infectee theory.

[KidVermicious]

I hate it when Ed pulls this crap, but I'm about to pull an Ed. Sorry.

[Rabid Renaissance]

Originally Posted by Scathach

14) Rabid Renaissance (Carter Burke) - I keep flipping and flopping. Moderately suspicious. I still think that responding only to posts about yourself will not help find scum. Maybe a playstyle clash.

It could be a playstyle clash, but context is important too.

I am a pretty reactive player, that is true, but it is more of a default position than a strategy that I advocate and I don't think I'm a one-trick pony. When I don't find anything else to go on, I will poke as many holes as possible in suspicions that are brought against me. I try to balance that with some benefit of the doubt that the people bringing those suspicions are just wrong as opposed to scum. One thing I will advocate is that a Townie defending themselves is better for the Town than not defending themselves.

Days 1 and 2 of a Vanilla game with no strategy or dynamics discussion, low participation, and not a lot of meat: in that context I don't think it is particularly fair to jump to the conclusion that I only post about things that concern me or that I think other people should play that way too.

If someone were to do a WOW on me, there will be posts that have nothing to do with posts that reference me. They may be short and less loquacious, but they are indeed there.

Now to your case against Bear...

Lurking in plain sight - plain and simple. Keeps saying he finds it difficult to find a topic to talk about but conspicuously avoids mentioning any case on any player. Instead only comes in today to comment on brewha's infectee theory.

I think commenting on Brewha's rather wonky infectee theory is a valid and worthwhile thing to discuss, and I'm not sure how you're somehow using that as an example of how Bear isn't participating. He may not be poking holes in other people's cases, but that isn't the only way to participate.

My list at this moment is not so much a list as a hunch that at least one of Scathach or Squiddy is scum, possibly both, with KidV as my dark horse, mostly because he and I seem to be in vague agreement in how we're reading the game so far, and if I'm wrong about Scathach and/or Squiddy, I will be blaming him for being maliciously manipulative.

[Rabid Renaissance]

I killed the thread...

[Flying Squid with Goggles]

Nah, you've just posted some interesting food for thought.

I can't fault you for thinking I might be scum, but your case seems to rest on the notion that "drama" in this case means the acrimonious nastiness that characterized some exchanges in Little Mermaid, as opposed to the Tinker vs. Squid drama that was perfectly polite, but that was a townie v. townie exchange that lasted over several days anyway.

I tend to think that scum have little to gain by engaging in very noisy exchanges and attracting needless attention to themselves, and counting up the posts that are Rabid and Scathach talking to, or past, each other, they formed a large proportion of the discussion on D2. I think it gives scum a chance to sneak by while the townies try to lynch the loudest of each other.


Regardless, anything that gets people talking is a net positive for Town anyway, so I'm glad that my lists have contributed at least a little to that.


KidV, you've got a rep as a really good player. Even if you don't want to discuss your rationale for a vote on me, could you comment on other players? Anything to get more people involved in this conversation?

[BobArrgh]

First of all, real life obligations have kept me away from decent participation the past few evenings. So, I apologize for not being able to contribute a whole lot on this round. Unfortunately, my project at work is taking all my brain concentration, and when I ride my bike on my daily commute, I tend to be trying to solve the problems that put food on my table.

Regarding Brewha's vote for himself, I have complete changed my mind as I was trying to write this post.

Brewha's vote for himself has pretty much been ignored. No Townies are jumping on his train, and thus Scum are not obligated to do a full-court press on another player to draw the vote off of him. I'm not getting a whiff of any scent that the Scum are needing to protect him.

[BobArrgh]

I guess it once again comes down to a choice between a complete non-participant such as BillMc or a supposed lurker like Bear_Nenno.

[gnarlycharlie]

Originally Posted by Brewha

GnarlyCharlie, there's you and 3 other still living people that I've played with in the past. Whether or not they remember me is in question.

well since i'm the last one living, i would have to be the scum that chose you. since i'm town, it seems unlikely now that you're the infectee. i doubt the ones who haven't played with you would have chosen you out of fear that we lynch to newcomer.

Originally Posted by Flying Squid with Goggles

Now for more of a real reads list & suspicion list:

Very Suspicious Of:
Bear - very quiet in comparison to last game, not much scum hunting
Brewha - I don't really like all this "I've got nothing to go on" and "I'll vote for myself" but I can't tell if that's self-destructive Townie or Scum that is good at acting
gnarlycharlie - I'm not sure about all this theorizing about the infectee, could it be gnarly_Town has nothing else to go on, or that a gnarly_Scum doesn't want to have anything else to go on?
Zeener - Looks suspicious, but D1 should carry a lot less weight than D2. But does not seem to be lurking as much on review as I thought ey was. Kinda borderline between Very and Moderately suspicious

so you're implying that i'm bussing Zeener? what is suspicious about my theory? if you were scum how would you choose the infectee? would you choose players who get lynched early?

Originally Posted by Rabid Renaissance

Sorry, but this is parsing more and more like vapor-analysis each time I read it.

You're suggesting that the scum team has reviewed every game we've each played in and determined people who are 'usually mislynched', whatever that means. Or, you as an individual happen to think that the people who have been NK'd so far are 'usually mislynched', whatever that means.

Neither of those things is a very useful tool for the Town as a whole to base analysis on.

Pizza also had some advice about scum hunting in Vanilla games that he offered to share, and regardless of when or if he was lynched in the previous games that I've seen him play, he has had some good insights as a Townie. Those things, I think, probably had more to do with him being targeted than his mislynch history.

I see others are have already taken you to task on this point, so I'll stop there.

As for Zeener, who is positing the theory that 'smart players' are being targeted, that's also a very subjective analysis tool that won't scale well to the Town as a whole.

now, you're pinging me as well. like Zeener, you're totally dismissing it as if it had no merit. perhaps i've played too many games and have assumed that others know about who's lynched early or not. but it really doesn't take a lot of games to do that. often, when such a player is under pressure there will be a comment that this person't playstyle usually gets him or her lynched. often our reputations precede us.

i'll pose the same question i posed Squid. if you were scum how would you choose who to infect?

Originally Posted by Scathach

5) gnarlycharlie (Cpl. Dietrich) - Mildly suspicious. Said he was going to try a new playstyle, but it hasn't really been in evidence. Could have been scum who decided to play it safe after getting their role. Bit meta though.

i'm a bit disappointed that you don't see a change especially since we played as a team recently. i actually am posting more (i know that sound incredible) and earlier in the Day. my posts are no longer purely reactionary. i have voted early. i've made cases not just agree with others or merely follow my gut. i'm actually scumhunting which has been a constant criticism of my play.

your assessment of my play has made me mildly suspicious of you as well.

-------------------------

to simplify my theory:

1. scum are likely to infect a player who usually survives late into the game.
2. to protect the infectee, scum will keep other players who usually survive late into the game alive. thus they are killing those who are usually lynched early in the game.

again, i may be wrong. but it's not unreasonable. so anyone who doesn't think there isn't any merit is suspect to me. so to do a Pizza, i want Zeener, Rabid and Scathach killed, preferably in that order.

P.S. i just realized that none of the people who have found my thoughts or play wrong have voted me. i'm beginning to think i might be really the infectee.

[Zeener Diode]

Originally Posted by gnarlycharlie

to simplify my theory:

1. scum are likely to infect a player who usually survives late into the game.
2. to protect the infectee, scum will keep other players who usually survive late into the game alive. thus they are killing those who are usually lynched early in the game.

Agreed. Scum are looking at players which have the best chance of flying under the radar. SisC and Pizza would garner too much attention if left alive, possibly leading to a mislynch.

again, i may be wrong. but it's not unreasonable. so anyone who doesn't think there isn't any merit is suspect to me. so to do a Pizza, i want Zeener, Rabid and Scathach killed, preferably in that order.

I'm definitely not one who flies under the radar. Quite frankly, I don't know anyone in this game who might qualify. (I know a few people not playing that would fit the bill.)

P.S. i just realized that none of the people who have found my thoughts or play wrong have voted me. i'm beginning to think i might be really the infectee.

I've been sitting on this all game, and I feel I have to ask: what is the point of falling on your sword if you don't know whether you're infected or not? You're making scum's job easier with self-accusations.

[Rabid Renaissance]

[QUOTE=gnarlycharlie;805256]
now, you're pinging me as well. like Zeener, you're totally dismissing it as if it had no merit. perhaps i've played too many games and have assumed that others know about who's lynched early or not. but it really doesn't take a lot of games to do that. often, when such a player is under pressure there will be a comment that this person't playstyle usually gets him or her lynched. often our reputations precede us.

i'll pose the same question i posed Squid. if you were scum how would you choose who to infect?
[quote]

See my post #23 on Day 2:

Originally Posted by Rabid Renaissance

In trying to determine who would make a good infectee, I'm wondering if the strategy might be to select someone who has a metagame history of being good at talking themselves out of the noose.

As you can see I'm not afraid of metagame conjecture regarding player histories and infectee selection, but I'm also aware that it is a total WAG and I'm not trying to persuade anyone to vote or unvote or make analytical judgements based on that WAG or suspecting people who might disagree with or dismiss that WAG.

I also didn't define a list of who I think those players are, because I frankly don't know and I don't expect to convince anyone else that my subjective opinion of such things is valid. Why?

I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack scum on fire off the shoulder of Orion...

I've played so many games that a concept like 'reputation' is so abstract that it is almost meaningless. I've seen people play consistently for awhile and then change completely for any number of reasons, not the least of which is the inherent random variability that is Mafia. I've seen people use other players' pre-conceived notions about the reputations of themselves and others to try and manipulate the game to their team's advantage. I've seen people purposefully try change their style of play just to keep from being predictable.

So no, I don't find reputations as much more than a null tell.