Day Six: Artifact Mafia

[LightFoot]

Originally Posted by Lion

~~

If someone can make a case or plan for killing Hooker, let me know. I can protect Lightfoot toNight and she can investigate Hooker. This plan fails if there are two Scum and SNF is not one of them. The Samulet holder can watch to see who kills me.

If we are killing (your word) Hooker then I would be wasting my time investigating..............

We think Town had the sword last Night, correct? certainly
They have not come forward to say it was stolen so they still have it.

[LightFoot]

Lion my continuing to exist could be because you are Scum. and you could be the godfather so not worried about me

but that would not explain the No NKill

but wait yes it could------------- If you are Scum you engineered the No NK to set this all up ( because Doc is just a clean cover role)


if only the samulet had seen you visit someone........
why has the samulet not been used at me?



well that might not work because it really appears we have an artifact blocker- so why would Scum use someone else's role as a cover?

is that paranoid enough for you? _{MU is frying my brain I tell ya I have made it to D3}

[Lion]

Originally Posted by LightFoot

Lion my continuing to exist could be because you are Scum. and you could be the godfather so not worried about me

but that would not explain the No NKill

but wait yes it could------------- If you are Scum you engineered the No NK to set this all up ( because Doc is just a clean cover role)


if only the samulet had seen you visit someone........
why has the samulet not been used at me?



well that might not work because it really appears we have an artifact blocker- so why would Scum use someone else's role as a cover?

is that paranoid enough for you? _{MU is frying my brain I tell ya I have made it to D3}

The best part of such a scheme would be to convince the moderator to include a fake kerfuffle in her game color. You know better than that, Lightfoot.

[LightFoot]

not sure wha t the fake kerfuffle would have been- but hey I am punch drunk ( and maybe drunk) don't look under the curtain

I was being light because I can do that here to prove the point that I don't see it being real

[Lion]

Originally Posted by LightFoot

If we are killing (your word) Hooker then I would be wasting my time investigating..............

We think Town had the sword last Night, correct? certainly
They have not come forward to say it was stolen so they still have it.

If TexCat had the sword she hopefully would have bequeathed it. Otherwise, I assume a Townie would have let us know it was stolen. So unless TexCat did not bequeath or accidentally bequeathed it to a Scum player, the Town player still has it.

[Lion]

No telling what happened to the Samulet after IS died. I don't think we have heard from anyone about this.

[LightFoot]

Originally Posted by Lion

No telling what happened to the Samulet after IS died. I don't think we have heard from anyone about this.

Scum could be sitting on it- true all who can steal needs to be making sure they try

[HookerChemical]

Originally Posted by SNFaulkner

If you are scum, all manner of weird schemes are possible. I've read your plans as scum in many previous games and would put nothing past you. Including not killing, or making nonsensical visits to throw trackers off, and not killing the cop. LF staying alive might even be an indicator that she is scum.

The theory that scum engineered a non-kill on N2 (still early in the game) with the intention of fake claiming doctor (implying that they knew doctor wasn't in the game) seems far fetched. I'm not sure where nonsensical visits fits in for a scum Biotop scheme unless you're speculating that BOTH Biotop and Quinn are scum.

[HookerChemical]

Originally Posted by Lion

No telling what happened to the Samulet after IS died. I don't think we have heard from anyone about this.

My guess is that it was in TexCat's hands. She was widely considered town and would be a reasonable heir. It would also explain why there's no claim of ownership/results.

The available information is also consistent with scum having it, presumably from a successful steal, possibly from a bad bequeathment.

[HookerChemical]

Originally Posted by HookerChemical

The theory that scum engineered a non-kill on N2 (still early in the game) with the intention of fake claiming doctor (implying that they knew doctor wasn't in the game) seems far fetched. I'm not sure where nonsensical visits fits in for a scum Biotop scheme unless you're speculating that BOTH Biotop and Quinn are scum.

I should be clear her that I'm referring to the Lion version of Biotop here.

[SisterCoyote]

Current vote count

Hooker Chemical (1,1): Lightfoot (45)
SNFaulkner (1,1): Lion (99)

With these votes, Hooker Chemical will be killed.

[SNFaulkner]

Originally Posted by HookerChemical

The theory that scum engineered a non-kill on N2 (still early in the game) with the intention of fake claiming doctor (implying that they knew doctor wasn't in the game) seems far fetched. I'm not sure where nonsensical visits fits in for a scum Biotop scheme unless you're speculating that BOTH Biotop and Quinn are scum.

My point was that if BioLion is scum, then there is no point in trying to figure out the motivation/details as I'm sure I won't understand it until I read the scum boards. And none of this "undestroyed artifact" or "mysterious visit" stuff makes any sense yet so I wouldn't be surprised there might be some as-of-yet unknown mechanic at work.

I think the theory that both scum and sword targeted Colby is plausible. As is the theory that Biolion is in fact a doctor.

But I also like the "one scum per group" theory, which points to either Quinn or Lion. And nothing has happened in the game that I see as ruling either of them out entirely.

However, that might be a plan for ToMorrow. Like I said before, I'm willing to accept LF is in fact town cop for toDay and shoot in the uninvestigated/unclaimed pool.

[LightFoot]

WHERE did everybody go?

[SNFaulkner]

Originally Posted by LightFoot

WHERE did everybody go?

I was playing ALF's first adventure, to not much success.

[LightFoot]

]Claimed activities:
N1:
HookerChemical used Sonic on Archangel
SilverJan tracked Quinn (saw nothing)
Lightfoot investigated ("honorable knight" Galahad) Archangel, confirmed name and town and owning artifact
Pleonast used Excalibur on Chameleon
TexCat samuleted Pleonast and saw Excalibur used
Unknown scum killed Biotop

N2:
SilverJan tracked Mahaloth (visited Quinn)
Lightfoot investigated Texcat (confirmed TexCat town, name, and presence of artifact)
Pleonast used Excalibur on Colby
HookerChemical passed Sonic to Archangel
TexCat watched (with the Samulet) Lightfoot (saw no visitors)
InnerStickler stole Samulet from TexCat
Lion doctored Archangel
Scum kill did not go through

N3:
SilverJan tracked InnerStickler (visited Texcat)
InnerStickler samuleted? Texcat (saw nothing)
Lightfoot investigated SNFaulkner (reported town)
Archangel uses Sonic on Pleonast (blocked?)
Lion doctored LightFoot
Unknown scum killed Pleonast

Dawn 3:
Archangel died and passed Sonic to Texcat

N4:
Lightfoot investigated raventhief (reported Town)
SilverJan was killed
BillMC survived an attempt on his life
Lion doctored LightFoot

N5:
Excaliber killed Dante
NK Texcat
LightFoot investigated Paulwiag (reported Town- confirmed name
Lion claimed? To protect LightFoot
Quinn got the Sonic Screwdriver ?
The samulet is MIA
I don’t recall anyone else claiming any activity-

[LightFoot]

Pour a drink or step away from the bar


we need some decisions here

[raventhief]

I'm here. Very tired but here.

[HookerChemical]

Originally Posted by LightFoot

WHERE did everybody go?

Pittsburgh.

[raventhief]

Originally Posted by LightFoot

Pour a drink or step away from the bar


we need some decisions here

We definitely need discussion. Decisions? Well, it's Tuesday. We have time to discuss. The day had lots of legs left.

[SNFaulkner]

Investigated:
5 SNFaulkner-reads Town
11 paulwhoisaghost-reads Town
19 raventhief-reads Town

Claimed:
10 Metallic Squink Lion-claimed doc
6 LightFoot-claimed investigator

Unclaimed/Uninvestigated:
9 The Mighty Quinn
15 HookerChemical

If we believe LF is town cop then we have to shoot either Quinn or Hooker. People are saying the unexplained Mahaloth visit makes Quinn town, but I dunno that that is for certain. Since he is also in the TV show that has yet to produce a scum,



But I'd be alright switching to Hooker if needed.

[LightFoot]

do we mostly think there is one scum left?
of the two uninvestigated who do you feel has the least Town cred?
Lion claiming does not absolve them but let us start with those two

there are 7 of us left-
we have wiggle room - for now
pick one

[LightFoot]

Originally Posted by SNFaulkner

_

I think the theory that both scum and sword targeted Colby is plausible. As is the theory that Biolion is in fact a doctor.

on what planet would Scum NK colby- when Town takes him out every game?

But I also like the "one scum per group" theory, which points to either Quinn or Lion. And nothing has happened in the game that I see as ruling either of them out entirely.

why you insult the Mod like that?

However, that might be a plan for ToMorrow. Like I said before, I'm willing to accept LF is in fact town cop for toDay and shoot in the uninvestigated/unclaimed pool.

this is smartest part of this post

[raventhief]

As I said before, I like the one scum per group theory a little much. It really appeals to the pattern-seeking part of my brain. So the rest of my brain discounts it entirely, or tries to. I just find it hard to believe that such a pattern would be intentional, because it does give Town an edge if the pattern is spotted.

[SNFaulkner]

Originally Posted by LightFoot

...why you insult the Mod like that?...

Because it's the sort of thing that fits my OCD perfectly. I wouldn't have even noticed it until you or Paul put the colored groups together. And that's precisely the type of thing I look for when I put my colored lists together. I could totally see myself doing something like that as a game designer.

[HookerChemical]

…where we came in?

I break it down into two options. Either one of the people we’ve cleared shouldn’t be cleared or one of the investigations is wrong due to a godfather. I think we have five scum, which means we don’t have an artifact blocker and godfather remaining. (Remember when 4 was supposedly PIS?)

I find the godfather theory more plausible. It’s clear that there is an investigator. Lightfoot named names. I think it’s more believable that she’s town than scum. She’s not 100% cleared, but she’s pretty firmly in my town column. If there’s only a godfather now, she poses no threat and she won’t be night killed now.

Having an investigator does not necessitate a godfather, but it implies it. Which means that the investigation results aren’t reliable.

Of those investigated, SNF continues to ping my scumdar. Today a chunk of his contribution is mostly speculation about scum motivations that I can’t make much sense of. He even concedes as much, saying it will only make sense when he reads the scum board. Maybe it’s because I’ve never scummed with Biotop or Archangel, but I don’t put much weight in wheels within wheels theories of scummery. I don’t like the “one scum per group” theory, which has no basis. Given that SisterCoyote was a strong advocate against assuming things about Pleonast’s setup, I think it’s reasonable that she wouldn’t build in a tell like that. (It may also be that SisterC had a role that let her know our assumptions were incorrect.) And I don’t find it believeable that scum would kill Colby N2 as well as Pleonast. People were giving Archangel and Paul a ton of credit for the artifact scheme, even if their late day evening waffling almost got Prof P off the gallows.

My previous case against him is here. (http://www.giraffeboards.com/showpos...&postcount=258)
Quinn put together a better argued case here:
(http://www.giraffeboards.com/showpos...&postcount=146)

We’ve been more or less giving him a free pass since Lightfoot claimed investigating him on N3, so I went back to reread him. D4 was relatively non-pingy from him, IMO. There’s a choice quote from Quinn about him potentially being godfather that I like. It’s not super damning since it’s not really about him, but I like it.

Originally Posted by The Mighty Quinn

Hm. Back to the drawing board, I guess. Sorry, Nate (unless you're the Godfather...which would actually kind of make sense...oh, never mind).

Having thought through the Stickler issue further, I see 3 possibilities:
1) Texcat is lying. I consider this too unlikely to be worth worrying about.
2) Both are telling the truth, and the apparent contradiction is due to some unknown wrinkle in the rules pertaining to Artifacts. Possible, but seems unlikely, especially in light of Tex's PM specifically describing AA as having "visited" her.
3) Inner Stickler is lying. I don't know why he would do that as either town or scum, but really, once a liar is identified, it's his job to supply an explanation, not mine to sleuth one out. And since he hasn't done so,
[Unvote]snfaulkner [unvote]
[Vote] Inner Stickler [vote]
Looks like we only need one more vote to hammer this. I for one would be quite pleased to shift the schedule so that Nights are on the weekends.

D5 from him included a chunk of discussion of the strongman/doctor/scotsman setup that leads to a vote on Bill based on Paul’s arguments about balance.

D4 and D5 weren’t great days for discussion because there were runaway candidates.

D6 gets spicy again.

Originally Posted by SNFaulkner

I find myself agreeing here. One scum per group seems very nice and tidy. Which points to either Liontop or Quinn.

BUT, with the only scum power seen being a strongman, does 1 scum left make for a balanced game? Somebody did calculations the other day. I need to go find them. If there are more than 1 left, that messes with the tidiness of the pattern. And once that happens, then it is useless as a theory.

This is nonsense about the pattern implicating Lion or Quinn. Those two are the most concrete clears in my book. It is pure speculation without any related mafia theory to provide an underpinning (like the existence of a godfather). When has Mafia ever been “very nice and tidy?”

Then in Post 100 he starts onto the wheels within wheels theory of scummery.

Originally Posted by SNFaulkner

If you are scum, all manner of weird schemes are possible. I've read your plans as scum in many previous games and would put nothing past you. Including not killing, or making nonsensical visits to throw trackers off, and not killing the cop. LF staying alive might even be an indicator that she is scum.

I get tossed onto the potential scum list in Post 93.

Originally Posted by SNFaulkner

Ok, well my choices for today are either Quinn or Bliontop since their group has yet to produce a scum, OR, Hooker, as one of the last uninvestigated/unclaimed. I'm willing to believe that Lightfoot IS a town cop for at least one more day, but I am getting pretty wary.

I'm leaning towards Quinn, since he falls into both uninvestigated/unclaimed AND scumless group.

Everything else up to this point seems to matter less to me than these processiesseses of elimination.

I don’t like that so far he’s taken a position that Quinn is a good candidate because he’s unclaimed and there’s no scum in his group, Lion is scum because he could have wheels within wheels and there’s no scum in his group, and me because I’m uninvestigated.
He’s juggling a couple theories to hang a vote on. There’s the butterzone theory. There’s the one-scum-per-show theory. There’s the game balance/points theory. Juggling this many theories is going to provide a justification for any lynch you want, smudge half the remaining players, and give you something to hang your hat on when you vote for town at the end of the day. Just pick the theory you want to use that doesn’t force a critical vote on a scum teammate or that eliminates a high priority target.

I’m back where I started.



Isn’t this…

[SNFaulkner]

Originally Posted by HookerChemical

...
I don’t like that so far he’s taken a position that Quinn is a good candidate because he’s unclaimed and there’s no scum in his group, Lion is scum because he could have wheels within wheels and there’s no scum in his group, and me because I’m uninvestigated....

I don't like that you are putting words in my mouth. I never said Lion was scum. Just that if he is, then he would be the one to pull off the "wheels within wheels".

He’s juggling a couple theories to hang a vote on. There’s the butterzone theory.

I still like that theory. Let's go take a look at it here...Who is still unaccounted for in the BZ? D1 you and maybe raventhief. D2? You. D3? You and raventhief (maybe lion). D4? Me and maybe Quinn. D5? Me and maybe Lion. It's a new theory I'm working on so I'm not too sure how good it is. But there you are more than the others, for what it's worth.

There’s the one-scum-per-show theory.

I admit this one probably blinding me due to me OCD.

There’s the game balance/points theory.

That was Quinn's. I just extrapolated from his. Am I not allowed to poke at someone else's theory with a stick to see if it holds water?

Juggling this many theories is going to provide a justification for any lynch you want, smudge half the remaining players, and give you something to hang your hat on when you vote for town at the end of the day. Just pick the theory you want to use that doesn’t force a critical vote on a scum teammate or that eliminates a high priority target.

I'd say I was exploring many theories to try and make sense of the this game in particular and Mafia in general. By calling it "juggling", it feels like you are again specifically and purposefully trying to mis-characterize what I've been saying/my play style.

[LightFoot]

OOG _{I am driving to see Dad ( while I still can) starting Thursday AM PST- 8 hour drive I have no idea what sort of internet I will have for 7 days-and you know- Dad}

[SisterCoyote]

OOG: Lightfoot, take care of yourself. Family. We get it.

[paulwhoisaghost]

Originally Posted by LightFoot

do we mostly think there is one scum left?
of the two uninvestigated who do you feel has the least Town cred?
Lion claiming does not absolve them but let us start with those two

there are 7 of us left-
we have wiggle room - for now
pick one

There are 4 uninvestigated... but you are one of them. Hooker, Quinn, and Lion are the others.

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[HookerChemical]

Originally Posted by SNFaulkner

I don't like that you are putting words in my mouth. I never said Lion was scum. Just that if he is, then he would be the one to pull off the "wheels within wheels".

If you don't think Lion is a prime candidate for scum, it sure comes off like that. And if you don't, I don't think the smudge against a player you don't think is a good scum candidate looks any better.

[LightFoot]

If you are going to coast on being investigated you have to trust the investigator as much as you trust the other investigated parties -

[LightFoot]

NETA I read LightFoot's PM She is Twon does that help you paranoid Paul?

sorry grumpy

[LightFoot]

Nope, better lynch me I made a typo

[LightFoot]

Originally Posted by SisterCoyote

OOG: Lightfoot, take care of yourself. Family. We get it.

OOG
TY it is kind of a big deal- might be my last

[LightFoot]

enough of that on to the foot of the game!

[SNFaulkner]

Originally Posted by HookerChemical

If you don't think Lion is a prime candidate for scum, it sure comes off like that. And if you don't, I don't think the smudge against a player you don't think is a good scum candidate looks any better.

I had to read this like 12 times. I *think* I understand what you mean. I had no intention of smudging Lion by complementing his scum game. But I do now see how it came off that way.

[LightFoot]

Paul I had convinced myself that you were coasting Scum- so I investigated you
I am giving you the benefit of the doubt now

that may not change your view but it did mine

[paulwhoisaghost]

Theories, Theories, theories.

Hooker, there is more than one way to skin a cat. Looking at what different theories point to is just reviewing the game through different lenses. If they all point to the same person being scum, why does it matter how they get to the same answer? You want the simplest solution from my perspective? You are a non godfather scum. That doesn't require me to believe that there is only a godfather left when we have uninvestigated players still alive. The optimal play for town is to lynch you. If Lightfoot had investigated you and you came back town, the optimal play would be to lynch me. I know I'm town, and I would make as good a case as I could... as it seems you have... but town would still need to lynch me to eliminate possibilities. If we chase a godfather and there isn't one, we will lose. Right now killing investigated townies is exactly what a non godfather scum would want. Also, there a nondestroyed sword that needs answers, to me the most likely explanation is that there is an artifact blocker. And it makes more sense that scum didn't want the sword destroyed if that artifact blocker was you. You are an obvious choice for AA to bequeath the sword to. You seemed pretty damn townie after destroying her artifact, it was only a matter of time until someone passed the sword to you or bequeathed it to you.


@SNF, really man? Quinn? Why the hell would you vote for Quinn over Hooker? OCD? Seriously? You want to explain away our best clues, our only real evidence of towniness in order to make the remaining scum fit into a theory that this game is broken?
Why? Hooker was always the better Lynch. He has nothing to hang his towniness on other than destroying the first artifact. And yet you want to deny evidence and vote for Quinn... weird man.
But then suddenly your case on Quinn is worth your vote anymore because Hooker voted you? If Hooker is town, who do you think he's going to vote for? So What, add OMGUS and suddenly Hooker is a better lynch than Quinn for you?

This whole interaction feels kind of staged.

If there are 6 scum, it makes sense for the last two to be SNF and Hooker. SNF came in halfway through the Day with a vote on Quinn, Hooker comes in with a vote for SNF, then SNF moves his vote to Hooker. So the remaining scum bus each other. One of them does toDay, but Lightfoot voted Hooker, so chances are no one was going to come up with a better lynch and might as well get SNF as much TC as possible before the God father hunt starts.

I am willing to lynch either Hooker or SNF, but I think we should lynch Hooker and be sure we do have a Godfather before we use lynches on investigated townies.



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[paulwhoisaghost]

Originally Posted by LightFoot

Nope, better lynch me I made a typo

Whoa, in off typing that huge post and you're over here freaking out. I wasn't calling you into question. You said 2 uninvestigated players. There are 3 not including yourself. I was going to point out there are 3, but technically there are 4. I wanted to point out to you that you are treating Lion as investigated, it seems, that's how I interpreted you saying there are only 2 uninvestigated players. Your PoV alone allows you to exclude yourself.

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[Lion]

Originally Posted by LightFoot

do we mostly think there is one scum left?
of the two uninvestigated who do you feel has the least Town cred?
Lion claiming does not absolve them but let us start with those two

there are 7 of us left-
we have wiggle room - for now
pick one

Well, actually regarding all that "wiggle room"...

There are 7 of us left. If there are two Scum remaining, and we mislynch, there will only be 6. Add a Night kill and it is down to 5. If the sword then kills Town we would be at 4. Game over. No Day 7.

I think there is probably only 1 Scum left. But the worst case scenario is something to consider, and another good reason, as a group, to decide on a course of action.

[raventhief]

Originally Posted by SisterCoyote

OOG: Lightfoot, take care of yourself. Family. We get it.

This. Take care of yourself.

[LightFoot]

Originally Posted by paulwhoisaghost

Whoa, in off typing that huge post and you're over here freaking out. I wasn't calling you into question. You said 2 uninvestigated players. There are 3 not including yourself. I was going to point out there are 3, but technically there are 4. I wanted to point out to you that you are treating Lion as investigated, it seems, that's how I interpreted you saying there are only 2 uninvestigated players. Your PoV alone allows you to exclude yourself.

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I forgot the smiley ( but I did not forget the beer)
last night I was blowing off steam after narrowly escaping a lynch in another game

[SisterCoyote]

Current vote count as of post 142:

HookerChemical (3,3): Lightfoot (45), SNFaulkner (126), paulwhoisaghost (138)

SNFaulkner (2,2): Lion (99), HookerChemical (125)

The Mighty Quinn (0,1): SNFaulkner (120,126)


With these votes, Hooker Chemical will be killed.

[Lion]

Anyone available tonight about midnight Eastern time (Wednesday Night, Thursday morn) for a discussion?

[HookerChemical]

Sure.

[HookerChemical]

I'm not sure how long because my west coast clock is screwed up here on eastern time, but sure.

[HookerChemical]

For those of you voting for me, who's your #2 candidate?

[paulwhoisaghost]

Originally Posted by HookerChemical

For those of you voting for me, who's your #2 candidate?

SNF, but that's assuming that lion and Quinn will either die or be investigated hopefully. It also requires him to be a godfather, LF to not be town, or LF's results to be bad. Also the easiest explanation for the sword not being destroyed if AA was telling the truth is that there is an artifact role blocker.

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[The Mighty Quinn]

My problem is that at least one of four things I consider unlikely are true, and I can't decide how to rank their unlikelihood.

1) there is a Godfather
2) Lightroom is a scum investigator
3) Hooker destroyed an Artifact for town cred
4) Lion is lyin' scum

Right now I think I'm leaning towards #3 being most likely and #4 least, but I keep going around and around...

[LightFoot]

Originally Posted by The Mighty Quinn

My problem is that at least one of four things I consider unlikely are true, and I can't decide how to rank their unlikelihood.

1) there is a Godfather
2) Lightroom is a scum investigator
3) Hooker destroyed an Artifact for town cred
4) Lion is lyin' scum

Right now I think I'm leaning towards #3 being most likely and #4 least, but I keep going around and around...

that is not unreasonable ( your most likely)
- did auto correct 'fix ' my name?
so you are more trusting of Lion than myself?