Wheel of Life Mafia -- Sustaining Mango Day Four

Pleonast · #1 22nd March 2021, 11:19 AM

Archangel is dead.

raventhief is reincarnated.

Day ends on Friday March 26.

Dead Cat · #2 22nd March 2021, 12:27 PM

And now, I am still confused! @Askthepizzaguy I find it very hard to believe you are Town in Fig after what just happened. I don't see that it matters, but we killed AA here to make sure we maintained control if we are joined by a new Townie. It is almost certain that she will join Fig as Scum at your Dawn. So the Scum in Fig will then be, in my opinion: Archangel, Lion, Pizza vs a Town of: (Silverjan, probably SNF, and maybe Squink) minus whoever is the NK - and that seems to be a best-case scenario, because if Lotus end up killing TexCat she will end up as Scum there, too (if they kill Lightfoot she can't go there again).

OK, so I exaggerate - we don't know for sure that Lion is Scum, nor Pizza. It's inconceivable to me that neither is. I really think it's Pizza after how that just played out. And probably Lion.

I suppose the question is: are any of the Scum teams willing to loosen their grip on their current realm to try to go and help Town in another realm? It seems to me Mango isn't particularly well-placed for that, but I need to have a look at some permutations.

Dead Cat · #3 23rd March 2021, 06:43 AM

I've just done a bunch of analysis in my Scum thread which concludes I think this is now a Scum win in all realms. It is based on the assumption that both Squink and Lion are Scum in Fig right now. Maybe this is incorrect, but even if 1 of them is Town, I don't think it changes much. I can't believe they are both Town based on how the voting went. In fact, I think for balance reasons it simply isn't possible, based on what I know or assume about other players. So I don't think this changes much.

I'm happy to call this one a draw (i.e. we all lose) whenever others are ready.

Dead Cat · #4 23rd March 2021, 07:44 AM

@Bill Mc; my analysis is similar (except I am assuming at least one, and possibly both, of Squink and Lion are Scum in Fig right now), but the problem lies in the timing. For example, if Mahaloth chooses to transmigrate, even if we get lucky and he ends up as Town in Fig, that can't happen until the next Day but one for Fig (because Mahaloth can't leave here until Friday, and next Dawn in Fig is tomorrow - so Mahaloth wouldn't get to Fig until Wednesday of next week). By that time Scum in Fig will have had another NK, and very likely control the execution as well. So a Town win in Fig relies on Scum in Lotus transmigrating there - but 2 of them (Merestil Haye and sturmhauke) are not guaranteed to go there, and even if they both do (which seems unlikely in itself) it may not be enough to have control of the vote given that it is likely both AA and TexCat will also reincarnate in Fig as Scum tomorrow.

I have done similar analysis for all 3 realms and concluded a Town win in any of them is pretty much hopeless unless a Scum team chooses to sacrifice control - but why would they, as that would turn a draw into a loss?

Mahaloth · #5 23rd March 2021, 08:15 AM

@BillMc

It is all up to Fig. Scum have won Mango.

I see a very narrow path, but I'm not sure it is even possible for Fig to win.

It's a straight scum win......or loss for all players.

raventhief · #6 23rd March 2021, 08:28 AM

.... I've been confused all along....

Dead Cat · #7 23rd March 2021, 09:15 AM

@sturmhauke thank you for trying - the reason it relies on you (i.e. Lotus) is because you are the next realm that can affect player movement. Whereas here in Mango we can't contribute a player to Lotus until Friday, and we can't contribute a player to Fig until next Wednesday. Maybe there are fewer Scum in Fig than what I've been assuming - I think that's the only path to a possible victory.

Dead Cat · #8 23rd March 2021, 09:17 AM

Whatever the outcome, I'd just like to say that now I think I understand it a bit better, I'd be keen to play this setup again. And I look forward to Pleonast's comments on balance once we're done (I don't necessarily think it was poorly balanced to begin with, we were just hopeless at finding Scum early on and I was as guilty as anyone on that front).

Dead Cat · #9 23rd March 2021, 10:29 AM

Silverjan, you did not play poorly this game at all. Pizza, although Scum, was absolutely right when he said you shone out as villagery (and I'm sorry I suspected you as Scum at one point - I'm not good at Scumhunting). I hope you play again soon.

Dead Cat · #10 24th March 2021, 12:53 AM

@LightFoot I am reading you (twice) but I'm not clear on what you are proposing, please could you restate it? I agree with you it would be nice if there was some co-operation across realms to get a Town win somewhere but unfortunately, as I see it the only way to achieve that is for current Scum to seriously risk their chance of winning as Scum in their current realm. As such, although it may be possible, it would likely mean multiple people accepting that they turn a draw for them into a loss. I don't think many are likely to do that (I wouldn't).

Dead Cat · #11 24th March 2021, 01:05 AM

@BillMc, regardless of raventhief's current alignment, the earliest she could get to Fig is a week from now. Which I suspect is going to be too late to make a difference.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Me in my Scum thread

The most pro-Town it could possibly get is if all 3 current Scum in Lotus transmigrate there, and all 3 current Scum in Fig transmigrate out. Then it would look like this:

10. TexCat -- Scum
11. TheCatsMeow -- Town
12. Merestil Haye -- Town
13. sturmhauke -- Town
16. Archangel -- Scum

You can ignore the fact I've assumed 3 current Scum in Fig if you like (Pizza, Lion, Squink - I accept Squink, and possibly Lion - but I really doubt both - could be Town) - the fact is that however many Scum there are in Fig now, why would they all transmigrate out in order to allow the above to happen?

I get what you and Silverjan are saying about there being no draws, a loss is a loss. But I (and I'm sure I'm not alone) will generally play such that if I can't win, I'd rather nobody wins. Although as previously stated, at the moment it's a moot point for me as I can't get to Fig until next Wednesday either. So there is literally no strategic reason for me to transmigrate until Monday at the earliest, as otherwise I'll just be kicking my heels in the Well of Being rather than helping my current team in Mango. Not only would it be against my principles to self-sacrifice in this way, I would argue it's against the spirit of the game.

Dead Cat · #12 24th March 2021, 01:07 AM

NETA: OK, the above assumes TexCat is killed/transmigrates - that is not guaranteed. So the most pro-Town Fig could possibly get at its next Dawn is 4 Town 1 Scum (OK - Scum there could also forgo their NK to make it 5-1, but now I think we really are getting ridiculous). The same argument applies - I don't see the Fig Scum team allowing that, why would they?

Mahaloth · #13 24th March 2021, 06:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Metallic Squink

It seems that in order for anyone to meet their win condition, one scum team is going to have to give up their win con and given that everyone is so competitive, I do not see that happening.

@Metallic Squink

Yes, this is the case and I don't see much budging.

Dead Cat · #14 24th March 2021, 10:32 AM

I am more than willing to consider transmigrating to Fig if it looks like it will help Town there. But to reiterate, under the rules of the game, the earliest I can arrive there is next Wednesday. So I will assess that nearer the time. In the meantime, I don't think it's unreasonable that I refuse to transmigrate to the Well of Being, as all that would do is help Town towards a potential win here in Mango, which is contrary to my wincon.

Those who are currently Scum in Fig are in a similar position - why would they transmigrate now, when all that would do is help Town win in Fig? The only Scum who can effectively transmigrate this phase are those in Lotus. But even if all 3 of them transmigrate, and all 3 of them end up in Fig (which seems very unlikely), I still don't think there would be enough of them to outvote Scum in Fig - unless Scum in Fig forgo their NK, but why would they? This pattern then repeats itself each cycle. That is why I believe stalemate will prevail. For a win to be possible in this setup, we have to do better at finding Scums early, in my view. Maybe that will be possible next time we play it.

Mahaloth · #15 24th March 2021, 03:51 PM

@sturmhauke

Uh, I won't reveal anyone else, but let's just say no votes have been cast and zero conversation about our realm is happening here so far toDay.

Dead Cat · #16 25th March 2021, 01:05 AM

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but unless only 3 players out of 16 are Scum in Fig (which is inconceivable), Fig Scum still control the vote there this Day. The four players who have not been to Fig yet (TheCatsMeow, Merestil Haye, Mahaloth, raventhief) are all set to be Town there. There are 3 known Scum there (Pizza, AA, Tex). At least 1, and in my view 2, of Lion, SNF and Squink have to be Scum there too. It was a valiant effort by sturmhauke and Merestil Haye but I'm afraid it's pissing in the wind, as it turns out. And by the time all this became clear, it was too late for us in Mango to help.

Like I said before, I'm ready to call this one as a loss for everyone. Let's try again next time.

Dead Cat · #17 25th March 2021, 01:15 AM

The situation for Town in Lotus is similarly hopeless. Even if TCM doesn't kill Lightfoot this Night, at Dawn Lotus gains BillMc and babale, both of whom are Scum there. Best-case for Town in Lotus is they might gain Town Silverjan as well - but then it would still be 3 Scum, 2 Town. OK, so if TCM never comes back, Town might (depending on player list order) be able to execute a Scum, but that would only be due to absence. I suppose I could try to help by transmigrating there, which could make it 3-3 - but again, this relies on TCM failing to make the NK, so in my view it would hardly count as a win if it pans out that way. Mahaloth could also attempt to transmigrate, but I suspect he might go to Fig instead (I don't know for sure, it just seems less likely that 2 of a Scum team have been set to follow the same path at the same time - we just saw this fail with sturmhauke and Merestil Haye).

Basically, it looks to me like if Mahaloth and I both transmigrate, we are significantly lowering our chance of winning as Scum in Mango in exchange for only a tiny chance of a technical Town win in Lotus.

Mahaloth · #18 25th March 2021, 04:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dead Cat

Basically, it looks to me like if Mahaloth and I both transmigrate, we are significantly lowering our chance of winning as Scum in Mango in exchange for only a tiny chance of a technical Town win in Lotus.

This is the problem. I can't give up win here for maybe win there, as Dead Cat and I discussed in the scum chat here.

Is this a stalemate/universal-loss?

Dead Cat · #19 25th March 2021, 05:23 AM

Bill, I'd be surprised if Scum in Lotus were allowed to put in a kill order despite not being alive in that realm, that doesn't seem right to me. I reckon they are counting on TCM coming back before Dawn. Or indeed, she already has, but is laying low to try and fool me into transmigrating (which would be perfectly fair, and within her interests).

I think for balance AT LEAST 2 of Lion, Squink, and SNF are Scum in Fig right now. I'm almost certain about Lion, of the other 2 I'd bet on Squink. But of course SNF could be making out like he is voting for Scums to fool us, just like AA seems to be doing. The fact AA has voted for SNF hints to me that maybe SNF is Town. But it's impossible to say, given there will no doubt be a lot of movement in the votes before EoD.

Stick a fork in it, peeps - it's done.

Dead Cat · #20 25th March 2021, 07:23 AM

Lion, I'm not sure if this:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lion

A loss is a loss is a loss. if you think there is a slim chance to win one way, and no chance to win another. Why would you not take the slim chance?

was directed at me at all, but I'm going to respond to it anyway: my feeling is that if I transmigrate to Lotus, I will be decreasing my overall chances of winning the game. So I'm not inclined to do it on that basis.

Similarly, I am fairly certain that Fig is currently either 4 Scum, 3 Town or 5 Scum, 2 Town. Assuming the best case for Town, at Dusk it will become 4 Scum, 2 Town, and at Dawn 4 Scum, 1 Town (ignoring any player movement, for now). That means that even if 2 of those Scum transmigrate out to try and effect a Town win elsewhere, it would need 2 Town to arrive to have full control of the vote. But Scum in Mango can't risk sending 2 Townies to Fig in that instance, because it implies 2 Town might be coming to Mango. We would just be exchanging one way of losing the game for another.

Dead Cat · #21 25th March 2021, 07:30 AM

I'm not sure if AA's post is directed at me or Lion, but I'm not pissed off at anyone, not at all - I simply think there is little point in continuing. But I'd be happy to see/be told how I'm wrong. I don't understand what plan AA is referring to.

Dead Cat · #22 25th March 2021, 07:46 AM

Lion, there are no wheels - I have already stated how I don't believe it's possible for Town to win in Lotus (barring player absence, which I don't really consider a win). If you have a better idea, I'm keen to see it.

Dead Cat · #23 25th March 2021, 07:54 AM

I do recognise the possibility that I have been too hasty in some of my assumptions. On that basis, there is no harm in us all still trying, and we can still have fun doing so - I'll take another look at it tomorrow. I still doubt there is much more I can personally do to win, but we'll see.

Dead Cat · #24 25th March 2021, 08:22 AM

It seems to me that if TCM is absent Scum in Lotus, and LightFoot is Town, the fairest thing to do would be for LightFoot to transmigrate out (as if they were there, I don't see a reason why TCM would not submit a NK). But maybe that's just me - others might see it differently and I won't hold it against them if they do.

raventhief · #25 25th March 2021, 09:22 AM

Seems like the whole game has come down to Fig. Two thirds win, or everyone loses.

I dunno, I still feel hopeful that town can take Fig. I know you aren't, DC, but hope springs eternal.

Dead Cat · #26 26th March 2021, 08:25 AM

Pizza, now you've worked out LightFoot can't vote at Night, to reiterate what I said earlier, I don't think me going there now makes any sense. Even if TCM fails to NK LightFoot, me going there alone would only make it 3-2 to Scum. I think it's pretty unlikely that Mahaloth would be on the same path as me, even if we were to risk us both going. Our only hope would be Silverjan coming along too, and being Scum, and us ending up with a Scum at the top of the living player list. Once you multiply the probabilities it doesn't add up to a whole lot. AND it relies on a player being absent at a critical time (i.e. TCM not doing the NK), and I'm not really interested in winning like that anyway.