Yeetmas 3 - Day 2 - And the three wisemen are no more?

[Silverjan]

Originally Posted by Annoying Christmas Singer

4 calling birds!

3 French Hens

[Bashorian Clement]

From where I left off Day 1, page 3.

[Bashorian Clement]

Originally Posted by Vanta Black

Okay, here's a lineup of suspicious looking people with a little over one day to go.

Archangel. 12 posts, the only thing she really said about the game was that she couldn't understand anything.

Silverjan. Only 5 posts, only one of which was game-related, and that one was basically saying not many of the posts in this thread are game-related. I cannot dispute that but saying "not many posts are game-related" is like kinda almost not game-related in itself, ya know?

Annoying Christmas Singer. 2 posts. No songs. No solving.

TheCatsMeow. Again, some posts, no substance, no suspects, maybe a little about mechanics.

Christmas Sock. 1 post, voting TheCatsMeow. So this is a game-related post but the reason was bad. Because she's excited to play? Come on.

Mordenkainen. Two posts, no substance.

So those are my top six suspects at the moment. This could change.

Partly because of my suspicion and partly because there's already a vote on her.

FOS on Swammerdami for pushing No Wrap. Sure, we don't want to kill town, so let's not. But No-Wrap is a bad idea.

FOS on Suburban Plankton. 1 post, game-related because it was a vote, but pretty low effort if you ask me (yeah, nobody asked me, told ya anyhow). It is basically a naked vote for Lightfoot, who had not even posted yet.

Would really appreciate hearing more from others, particularly those who only posted early on D1.

This is scummy. Vanta lists the top 6 suspects then votes one of them. Vanta's suspects, other than ArchAngel, are the low posters to that point. Vanta doesn't analyze why Arch was being voted, just acknowledges that she was being voted and decides that that's reason enough. That she was scum of course doesn't mean much in this game. And what Vanta does say about Arch is a bit of a misrepresentation. In her entrance she did say she didn't understand what had been going on, but she later clarified and she added content. Even if Vanta later backs off, it's a scummy post. It was a vote for bad reasoning on Vanta's part and the shit push on Arch to begin with, which Vanta relied upon in part.

So I'm doing this for now, which may change as I continue my read-through.

[Bashorian Clement]

Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement

But first I'm going to bed and sleeping in because theoretically anyway I'm off work the rest of the week, which means withing just an hour or two.

But get this, before I went to the office this morning I packed a small suitcase with my clothes and bathroom stuff. As I was closing the suitcase, Mrs Clement walked in and saw me. I say the suitcase upright, wheels down on the floor, and I heard off to work.

When I pulled in the driveway arriving home a few hours later, her car was backed in and the hatch or whatever you call it was open and I saw there was stuff in there, not looking at exactly what stuff, but it looked like it was stuff we were talking. So I put my satchel with my laptop in with the other stuff and went into the house. I go to the bedroom and throw some odds and ends like cords and things into a small bag, take it out to the car and put it with the stuff, which I see she has added to.

We leave. Six hours later we arrive at it destination and start unpacking. She asks, "Did you bring your suitcase?" "Umm.. no. I thought you had already grabbed it when I saw the stuff in your car when I got home." Nope.

I take complete responsibility, but looks like I'm going clothes shopping tomorrow because I can't wear the same suit of armor for the next 5 days. It's about the dumbest thing I've done in a long time, and I deserve to get laughed at.

Sorry Jan. Game content from here on out.

Turns out my mother in law had gotten me a gift cert to a clothing store I like, and there was a store where she lived. So it worked itself out.

[Bashorian Clement]

Originally Posted by Swammerdami

I am NOT pushing for No_Wrap. I think we want to Wrap somebody. My No_Wrap vote was just my way of saying "I'm here! But Christmas cheer makes me reluctant to vote to Wrap any of my friends." ... Especially in the absence of any real case.

I DO have one scum lean already ... but I'm reluctant to vote her because I think of her as a special friend. There's still time; I will revisit later toDay.

Looking out for whether Swammi got back to this especially since he was killed, and I don't see why the vig would do it.

[Bashorian Clement]

Originally Posted by Archangel

Good morning. My reads are that Vanta Black, Swammerdami, and Silverjan are probably Town. Don’t have anything on anyone else.

I’m going to need to ask for a sub, my house has been for sale for months and I finally got an offer last night but have nowhere to move.

Merry Christmas, happy holidays, and happy New Year.

Mahaloth, I apologize but I need a sub please.

ArchAngel is wily enough to stay away from the Rule of Three, but since Swammi flipped town, this reinforces my Vanta Black vote.

[BillMc]

I can get behind this


I could also get behind a dizzy vote for similar reasons. She seems to be going out of her way to suggest that I am scum for voting AA but quite happy to assume the rest of the voters are town.

[Vanta Black]

Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement

This is scummy. Vanta lists the top 6 suspects then votes one of them. Vanta's suspects, other than ArchAngel, are the low posters to that point. Vanta doesn't analyze why Arch was being voted, just acknowledges that she was being voted and decides that that's reason enough. That she was scum of course doesn't mean much in this game. And what Vanta does say about Arch is a bit of a misrepresentation. In her entrance she did say she didn't understand what had been going on, but she later clarified and she added content. Even if Vanta later backs off, it's a scummy post. It was a vote for bad reasoning on Vanta's part and the shit push on Arch to begin with, which Vanta relied upon in part.

So I'm doing this for now, which may change as I continue my read-through.

Could you point to some of this great AA content? Because I am not seeing it, and it wasn't a shit push on AA because she did flip scum. I can't see how I'm being bashed here for voting my top suspect, who turned out to be scum. Why would I back off?

[Bashorian Clement]

Originally Posted by Vanta Black

Could you point to some of this great AA content? Because I am not seeing it, and it wasn't a shit push on AA because she did flip scum. I can't see how I'm being bashed here for voting my top suspect, who turned out to be scum. Why would I back off?

Pleonast voted her for her entrance, post #24: "I love you guys but there is not a single post in this thread I understand." That was a terrible vote, and he admitted it was a weak. And yes, she did provide some weak content between that and your vote, at least more content than the others in your list. That she turned out to be scum was luck, and it doesn't mean you're town.

[Annoying Christmas Singer]

Originally Posted by Silverjan

3 French Hens

2 Turtle Doves!

[Vanta Black]

Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement

Pleonast voted her for her entrance, post #24: "I love you guys but there is not a single post in this thread I understand." That was a terrible vote, and he admitted it was a weak. And yes, she did provide some weak content between that and your vote, at least more content than the others in your list. That she turned out to be scum was luck, and it doesn't mean you're town.

Link me to this content, I guess I missed it.

I voted her because of that "not a single post" thing and while there was not a lot of content at that point, there was also not much in the way of obfuscation. It seemed very dodgy. And in fact, was dodgy.

[Vanta Black]

And really, why argue about it? I voted her because I thought she was scum, based on her posts, and she WAS scum. That is done. It is very strange to place a vote on me for this. What else ya got?

[Bashorian Clement]

Originally Posted by Vanta Black

Link me to this content, I guess I missed it.

I voted her because of that "not a single post" thing and while there was not a lot of content at that point, there was also not much in the way of obfuscation. It seemed very dodgy. And in fact, was dodgy.

Originally Posted by Vanta Black

And really, why argue about it? I voted her because I thought she was scum, based on her posts, and she WAS scum. That is done. It is very strange to place a vote on me for this. What else ya got?

In both these, I can't get away from you also relied on the vote that was already there without looking at why it was there at all. I think your inconsistency on this may be town indicative though so

[Vanta Black]

It was a Pleonast vote. How the hell could I even begin to guess why it was there?

I notice you have yet to link to AA's substantive posts. On account of there weren't none. But that doesn't matter anyhow.

Also I think we should get away from the holiday music now!

Since no one got the last Name That Tune I will put out another one. I'm gonna make it lots easier.

Da da da da da
Da da
Da da
....

Also


Another weak vote, I will explain later.

[Mahaloth]

Originally Posted by Vote Counting Robot

Annoying Christmas Singer (1): Vanta Black (114)
Gnarlycharlie (1): Pleonast (70)
Vanta Black (1): Bashorian Clement (103)[113], BillMc (107)

Three total votes with less than 24 hours to go. Come on people! Someone has to get wrapped!

As of now, it would be gnarlycharlie.

[Dizzymrslizzy]

Originally Posted by BillMc

I can get behind this


I could also get behind a dizzy vote for similar reasons. She seems to be going out of her way to suggest that I am scum for voting AA but quite happy to assume the rest of the voters are town.

No that’s not at ALL what I said.

I said voting AA wasn’t worthy of unequivocal Town Cred.

But hey since you are skimming and now putting words in my mouth

[BillMc]

Originally Posted by Dizzymrslizzy

No that’s not at ALL what I said.

I said voting AA wasn’t worthy of unequivocal Town Cred.

But hey since you are skimming and now putting words in my mouth

Let me remind you of what you actually said, underlining mine:

Originally Posted by Dizzymrslizzy

Okay he voted for Arch Angel, BUT there are two scum teams, so maybe not so much a Bus as trying to kill off his opponent.

With multiple factions you don’t care who dies as long as it’s not your team.

So I don’t give much cred to leading the charge on AA. It was a BS case that turned lucky as hell. If ANYTHING. Bill is MORE on my radar for leading the charge there….

1) you are accusing me of being scum..trying to kill off my opponent
2) you are saying I led the charge on AA...with a 3rd vote?..skimming?

[Prof. Pepperwinkle]

'cause I haven't change my mind from yesterDay.

I will probably change it by EoD, 'cause I am concerned over the various Scum factions taking control of the 2nd & 3rd wraps.

[Dizzymrslizzy]

Originally Posted by BillMc

Let me remind you of what you actually said, underlining mine:

1) you are accusing me of being scum..trying to kill off my opponent
2) you are saying I led the charge on AA...with a 3rd vote?..skimming?

It was a discussion surrounding you being ultra clear and untouchable.

I was simply saying you are NOT ultra clear, and reasons as to why you COULD be scum.

But you are ridiculously defensive over it, making it more than it is. And continuing…. scummy.

[Meeko]

Because, it's either you or BC, and frankly, I am more sure that BC and I are town against town.

Ultimately, OMGUS, tinged with skimming. That is to say, I think you aren't giving me enough credit given my improved play over the more recent games. I think you are manufacturing / mobilizing this, in militaristic sense. And, as I know what alignment I am, ... that does not bode well for you.

At this point, any ""case"" as such I bring up, is going to be weak, but I don't let that sway my action. Others have said and used " Gut Reaction " here, and get away with far more.

But, yes. A "smell". Faintly.

[Meeko]

Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement

[unvote]winner of 1987 Indy 500[unvote]

Uh, I was 5 then.

Who? Yes. Google, but then, the game itself can't. We should probably have this down on record.

Related, did anyone else, other than Dizzy get my Eiffel 65 reference?

[Mahaloth]

Askthepizzaguy is subbing in for TheCatsMeow

I am not and was not planning on any more substitutions in the game, but there were extenuating circumstances so I am doing this one.

I encourage everyone else to participate as much as you feel is reasonable.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Greetings.

Alright, let's do this. I will dump my mental state from the very, very undetailed skim I took of the game state already. Garbage dump:

I saw a scummo got destroyed on the prior day by the flip, and then on day 2 I saw accusations regarding whether there was bussing, and potentially scummy reactions to that, and so forth. I think that's mainly the most interesting and possibly revealing behaviors that happened so far. Specifically generic and uncomplex thoughts that experience has shown me comes more from scums attempting to mirror town thoughts in a cookiecutter manner, while fitting their agenda. More than one name has popped up basing suspicions on that assumption already, and I will name those names when I have a minute.

My thoughts on that skim were that 2 scum factions have in general possibly already gone to war with each other using their superior position of basically being vigilante-masons. This happens a lot in 3 way mafia games, as noted quite extensively in my guide section on multiball.

Especially if there is already a situation of loss and distrust, and town hasn't lost their power roles yet, that's a terrible position to be in.

On skim, Archangel was visibly scummy during her brief time here on day one. From the classics in terms of scumtells themselves, like "I agree" (a scumtell that has landed a hit 21 games in a row now) to the specifics of the case levied against her. Sometimes people just look scummy and people can see it. Doesn't make someone town for seeing it, since it is multiball. Scums are also hunting scums.

Night kills will likely be hitting people the scums thought were 1) town power roles, 2) opposing scums, and 3) otherwise very dangerous townies, or people they thought they could never vote out due to looking villagery, which is less likely in multiball since villagery solving is also scummy here. The confirmable (?) town powers form basically a claimable masonry I think, and the multiple scum factions also form a hostile to each other masonry. So those are the biggest targets for everyone who can night kill. Which would be why everyone who died on n2 died. From every killer's perspective, those persons were almost always (1) or (2).

Anyway. I think the time of the year plus the general lack of activity during this phase has led to a town without a strong lead or much in the way of general teamwork at the moment. So I will drop advice to townies who are baffled for a good move.

A relevant piece of advice to all Mall Santas: Townies individually can be effective by being accurate with their votes, but as a team they have to vote together accurately, rather than dividedly. So the ultra low tally for much of the day, great for pressure and causing twitching, but we need to hit a second scummo here. So I will be asking for people to rally behind me, or someone else. (I have someone in mind if I don't have a better suggestion on deeper read.) Other ways individual townies can be effective is looking townie. If you are town and people don't vote for you, and more and more townies are like that, that's great because it's more likely that votes land on scums by default in the remaining pool. Even if your own vote isnt accurate, not being a target is useful. So play to your strengths. If they are looking townie, do that. If its solving, do that. If its both, do both. Other ways: People can be using mechanics to solve the game. Okay, do that. Just make sure thats not what it looks like youre doing. Night kills are spooky. Other ways: keep track of all the relevant mechanical info, people's votes, reads, reasons, and so forth. Don't let information that happened on day 1 or day 2 be lost by middle or endgame. Stuff happens early on that scums can't control too easily. Don't let those things be forgotten ever. Other ways: Just by being a positive and upbeat influence and not letting morale in town slip too much. Don't let the large numbers of scums, incorrect guesses, or scummy arguments which push doubt, discrediting, and so forth, affect your reasoning. Be of good cheer, and don't waver in the face of the usual scummo tactics to make you doubt and divide yourselves. I intended to write a chapter on being an effective townie and while the most effective thing you can do individually is vote correctly, that doesn't by itself win the game and it doesn't necessarily amount to good teamwork or a good solving environment, and if you can't do the first thing, there is plenty else you can do to be valuable to the team.

Okay.

I will place a vote with reasons before I sleep, then I have work, and I won't be particularly active in the remaining hours before deadline.

As such, I am making myself a strong candidate for a "follow me" voter today just to regain the initiative lost due to the inactivity of day 2.

I won't be able to follow someone else at all unless they already voted, and I tend to get NKed so this is probably my only move this game. Let's see if I can convince myself it's good.

[Askthepizzaguy]

The newbie-to-the-game leans on very limited reading:

Dizzy on this page and previous pages, struck me as strongly Dizzy. Meaning specifically, the key things I look for in her town game, are present. That means I won't be voting for Dizzy today, not that I can write her off as town forever in a multiball. She should be able to act villagery in a game where she has to hunt, I give her that much credit. But I think she's been poking some good eyeballs that needed to be poked. I would consider following her vote on BillMc specifically because of this: BillMc: Originally Posted by BillMc I can get behind this Vote vanta black I could also get behind a dizzy vote for similar reasons. She seems to be going out of her way to suggest that I am scum for voting AA but quite happy to assume the rest of the voters are town. "Seems to be" is passive aggressive phrasing, a scum tell characteristic of all the scum teams I have faced off against in the past 6 years without exception. The tell is null for BillMc if thats language he uses often as town. Even a single example would do. I also don't know how much hunting he is doing, but it is the holidays and I havent read all his posts either. Meeko: I have no idea how to read Meeko accurately. I can say the formatting always throws me, but I've seen that style of Meeko posting enough times from the sidelines to give it a "brainwave" read of it being normal enough Meeko. Essentially that means Meeko is viewing the game from a Meeko perspective and posting like Meeko in a manner that does not read agenda driven to me. Is that an ultra solid town read in a multiball game? Nyope. But I shan't be voting for a Meeko either. I think the best way I can possibly be a good teammate for Meeko here would be to, similarly, just follow his vote on BillMc. Which means I need to suggest a counterwagon in case BillMc is a miss, so as not to waste my time in-game entirely. Reading comes first before that, but more skim reads: Pleonast is someone I can't really touch at the moment. Villagery stuff comes from scum too much in multiball for me to do the usual "this is my towncore" particularly on someone with his level of acting ability. Hat tip to the superhero game on that, was sure that wasn't Pleo and lo and behold it was. I can say what I like about his game so far is that it reads as standard Pleonast operating procedure. I see a strategy and a leadery/directing tone to his posts, accompanied by the expected inability to actually cause his leadership to, you know, direct people, because of a lack of diplomacy or salesmanship. Essentially, not investing charisma into his persuasion checks. This is just an impression I got from the limited posts I actually saw so far, but I can pull them for reference to substantiate this argument. Bottom line, this is fully expected Pleonast behavior. This is all tempered by, how do I read someone who should be good at both behaving like himself as scum and also avoiding the pitfalls of doing "team behavior". Pleonast as scum, while not something I remember facing off against, has a self described meta and a reputation around these parts for being exactly unable to be cold read scum as scum, either by behaving unlike his usual self (giving off scumtells) or doing team behavior in a manner that sticks out. Essentially he plays to have a perfect cloak. So all of that positive I have for Pleonast, the stuff I expect to see from him in each game as town is there. It's also something I can't place him as town and never vote him. I sort of have to treat his slot like a zero poster and read the entire game and find I believe 5 scums outside of Pleonast's body to a strong degree, to townread him. Which will be difficult with other players being difficult to read here (ex: Suburban Plankton with zero posts today) I can't get there on Pleonast anytime soon. All I have is the surface level stuff that experience tells me means I should vote outside of Pleonast, because I do not gamble. Pleo could well be a hit but he's obviously not behaving like one and I have other non-null leans that I can even think are really hits. Bashorian Clement reads like Bashorian Clement but I've read almost none of his posts. It's just what I grabbed on skim made me not want to hit there because there was nothing I read there that is hittable. Plankton I need to check day one and see if he did anything I could plausibly alignment read. This and the Guiri slot and the other low posters / inactives, means a lot of gaps I could potentially even get to a scum read on, and in this setup I have to focus on readably scummy people. But I will pencil in Plankton as being town because inactivity sucks and then you die when you're town. Why I do that: Because inactive / ineffective towns with large numbers of scums means the game is over quicker for town, as a loss, even with a fine first shot against a scum day one. It's better to assume the worst for town, so you have the sense of danger and urgency one needs, particularly with a listless leaderless disorganized town and the scum teams will capitalize on it within the 24 hours to advance their win condition. Plankton is town because life sucks when you are a townie, and that's just tough turkeys but it is the way life goes. You remember all the counterexamples. You forget just how often the inactives are town. Game setup / townies remaining / time remaining in the round, compels me to veto votes on Suburban Plankton. Every yeet of a townie is potentially 4 townies dead at once, which kills this town permanently. There is not enough time remaining to do a claim battle or move town's vote girth onto a new candidate when its wrong. Chalk all that up to life sucks for townies, and thats how I handle being pushed against a wall with probably inactive probably town partners, is I point elsewhere and insist. I see in the other tab Guiri had 9 posts on day one and 8 today, so I will read those to read charlie slot. I can't recall one but I missed a good 80 to 90 percent of all posts so far. At least there's stuff to read here. But here is the thing: 15. TheCatsMeow ATPG 2. Pleonast 3. A Poor Shepherd Boy 4. guiri / gnarlycharlie 5. Prof. Pepperwinkle 6. Bashorian Clement 8. Dizzymrslizzy 9. Meeko 10. raventhief 11. Vanta Black 12. Annoying Christmas Singer (added) 14. Suburban Plankton 16. SilverJan 17. BillMc 19. Mordenkainen --------------------------- 7. Archangel Backup Doc Scum 18. Christmas Sock 13. Swammerdami 1. Lightfoot There are 5 valid targets outside of my teal "not today" names, in 9 names. The odds of being wrong go up exponentially from here, in terms of finding more "not today" names. And I gotta hit scum. So even with the fragments of reasons I have to not scum read those names thusfar, I don't know how effective, successful, or wise it will be to continue. Every guess in this side of the ledger improves my aim drastically on the other side, because it's a lot of fish in a very small barrel. It's just very poor and based on too little. It's better to put people in check on the other side of the ledger than try to brute force solve for town with so little of the game understood. Another candidate I would have to remove from the barrel so to speak would be the Christmas singer for undiplomatic nonagenda sorts of reasons. Basically the sock looks like it is playing for no town points and not ingratiating itself to anyone and also not interested in initiative, control, or credibility. That's a super blind spot for me when scums do that because scums so very, very rarely do that, unless they always do that. And its a sock, so thats a wager I'm not willing to make yet. But, I kinda don't like to vote for Singer either, mainly because Singer should be readable "eventually" on vote pattern analysis. Example, Vanta's flip tells you things about Singer a lot. Maybe not always, but enough for my instinct to tell me not today. Also, the sharpness and substance of the one liner vote there tastes like cinnamon in a good way. A little spicy in that candied cane.

So basically on a no read, no re-read, sideline skim of the game, those are the reads I got on instant recall once I knew my alignment.

That means if my gut is worth a damn, which it isn't, my town team continues to contain roughly two inactives, possibly three give or take, depending on your definition of inactive. Voting once with a reason is fairly close to not teamwork friendly enough to be called "active". I also potentially have a workable town-team out of Pleonast, Meeko, Bashorian Clement, and Dizzymrslizzy, possibly with Singer involved if they can sign in and join ranks.

Would I sell my soul that they are town? Nope. Contained within those names, I have historically unreadable, generically unreadable, extremely cunning scumbag by reputation when scumbag, and incomprehensible on my team, plus inactives.

So those are my initial town guesses I'd not be willing to invest money in.

That said, I kinda want to start with those as my not todays and look outside of those names for scums. If I keep finding townies and not scums, I will probably suggest uniting behind Dizzy today on the people she suspects.

If I have a stronger alternative I will mention it and say the reasons but I need to specifically think Dizzy's targets are town not to follow her.

Everything I do is time intensive and I gotta sleep in a few hours and then you won't be seeing me again, so I am thankful the game is a short read.

Also, a tally is prudent, even though I know the vote count is super low still.

Originally Posted by Vote Counting Robot

Billmc (2): Dizzymrslizzy (116), Meeko (120)
Pleonast (1): Prof. Pepperwinkle (118)
Annoying Christmas Singer (1): Vanta Black (114)
Gnarlycharlie (1): Pleonast (70)
Vanta Black (1): Bashorian Clement (103)[113], BillMc (107)

If you want, you can paste this as well:

Voting History:
post #70: Pleonast voted Gnarlycharlie
post #103: Bashorian Clement voted Vanta Black
post #107: BillMc voted Vanta Black
post #113: Bashorian Clement unvoted Winner Of 1987 Indy 500
post #114: Vanta Black voted Annoying Christmas Singer
post #116: Dizzymrslizzy voted Billmc
post #118: Prof. Pepperwinkle voted Pleonast
post #120: Meeko voted Billmc

[Askthepizzaguy]

Of those voted, I have only the thinnest of arguments not to hit Singer and Pleonast.

I have no read of Guiri so thats next to see if I can concur with Pleo on something.

It's sort of agree with Dizzy/Meeko and hit BillMc because historically what Bill did is scummy, and go all in, or provide counterwagon onto Vanta or Guiri/gnarly.

I can see reasons for Vanta, but I need to check Guiri posts before I discount that third alternative.

If my starting skim leans are anywhere near right, at least one scum should have a vote right now, and I want to assist.

I do not think that's five townies being voted.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If it is, that's unfortunate and a lot relies on night chess. In this setup, given these activity levels, even with the successful day one, this is probable to be town's last stand entirely or last stand before a LYLO where people don't trust anyone because it was one move to victory for scums and townies made it, and there's no reason to townclear anyone.

That's the outcome that compels me to really go offensive here and strike a scum out of those who can be struck, rather than further divide things. I also havent read enough of the game to do a full brute force solve. I'm like 10 days from doing a solve to that level, so it can't be me. Follower it is.

[Dizzymrslizzy]

Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy

Of those voted, I have only the thinnest of arguments not to hit Singer and Pleonast.

I have no read of Guiri so thats next to see if I can concur with Pleo on something.

It's sort of agree with Dizzy/Meeko and hit BillMc because historically what Bill did is scummy, and go all in, or provide counterwagon onto Vanta or Guiri/gnarly.

I can see reasons for Vanta, but I need to check Guiri posts before I discount that third alternative.

If my starting skim leans are anywhere near right, at least one scum should have a vote right now, and I want to assist.

I do not think that's five townies being voted.

Damn I think we have mind melded. I am solid on Vanta as a second as well.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Originally Posted by guiri Day 1 Archangel (5): Pleonast (44), Vanta Black (125), BillMc (193), Swammerdami (195), Mordenkainen (207) Swammerdami (2): Silverjan (192), Christmas Sock (200) Pleonast (2): LightFoot (157), Prof. Pepperwinkle (202) Christmas Sock (2): Archangel (179), A Poor Shepherd Boy(214) Prof. Pepperwinkle (1): Dizzymrslizzy (12) Annoying Christmas Singer (1): Bashorian Clement (6) Lightfoot (1): Suburban Plankton (19) Vanta Black (1): Annoying Christmas Singer (198) Mordenkainen (1): Guiri(215) bashorian Clement (0): Meeko (72)[119] Thecatsmeow (0): Christmas Sock (70)[200] No Wrap (0): Swammerdami (121)[194] Suburban Plankton (0): Vanta Black (49)[107] Non-voters (3): Meeko, raventhief, TheCatsMeow

Quoting that just so I can see it, and try to fit 5 guilty names in that for wagonomics. Separately:

Not getting a ton of "villagery" from Guiri's day one. Can be because I am historically poor at reading multiquote wall style posters. That throws off the timing and context and gives an artificial feel to natural posts, and scum stuff feels unnatural and looks identical to it in that format.

Seeing d2 pressure on easily targeted raven, who looks like that as town, even the bits where no content and there all day and dithering to make a decision that helps town win. Ive seen all that multiple times from town raventhief.

Can be right anyway. I dont know raven well enough.

Picks at mordenkainen. I remember having a similar process to morden on day ones before, because of being gun shy to kill someone I am not sure is scum on day one, while being quite vocal about it. It is an accuse here, vote elsewhere post, which can be suspicious a lot, so that is valid. Morden's vote came too late for it to matter to the outcome due to wagonomics. On that note, so did Guiri's for sure.

I see a reference to a cop claim by Professor P later on.

I see what looks like attempts at solving for Archangel's team, and reminding persons of Prof P.s claim which was missed the first time, and that is useful to me as I just saw it.

Okay, seeing gnarly as replacement. Still not seeing villagery indicators since the replacement.

Rereading again.

I see stuff that looks solving but that's absolutely null here. Guiri reads like someone's scum teammate. Not sure whose.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Alright I see you online Dizzy. I have limited time remaining and watching the infant, so talk to me. I will refresh often.

[Vanta Black]

Hm, the teal Don't Vote Today list doesn't agree with mine at all. It's almost the opposite. The exceptions are Dizzy and Meeko.

So that's suspicious.

Oh. Hi Pizza!

[Askthepizzaguy]

Originally Posted by Vanta Black

Hm, the teal Don't Vote Today list doesn't agree with mine at all. It's almost the opposite. The exceptions are Dizzy and Meeko.

So that's suspicious.

Oh. Hi Pizza!

It is suspicious that someone who hasnt read 80 percent of the game doesnt have a leans list that matches yours?

How generic of you. Hello!

[Vanta Black]

Well as you may have noticed there is not so much of the game to read!

I will update my leans list shortly.

I don't think we should triple-wrap toDay. I'm not even sure if we should double-wrap. It would be nice to knock off two scum but it would be disaster to knock off two town.

[Meeko]

Originally Posted by Vanta Black

Well as you may have noticed there is not so much of the game to read!

Straight up, legit thought this was just me. That is to say, I Was like, I Want to do more in this game, but at a point in time, we need other people to play as well.


Oh hey, look it! Pizza is here now!

[Askthepizzaguy]

That read on Guiri is difficult. Trying a second read.

What I am seeing that can just be normal Guiri but pings me is as follows:

Note where his focus is, in his posts. Read all of them in chronological order.

https://www.giraffeboards.com/showth...97#post1738197
This is basically fluff. And it is post 57 of d1 so, who cares about that.

Post 102 however is attempting to null multiple person's arguments, fluff, and mechanics. Thats an easy way to coast through the game without triggering alarm bells. So scums do this a lot. This and some others pinged me.
https://www.giraffeboards.com/showth...38#post1738338

https://www.giraffeboards.com/showpo...&postcount=164
This post looks solidly in villager range. There is some investigation, some clarification, some 'lack of TMI', and multiple aggressions. That's pretty concentrated villagery.

213 looks like the reading non-comprehension towntell from Silverjan, which is significant as it hasnt been wrong yet.

https://www.giraffeboards.com/showth...31#post1738631
216 looks villagery brainwave.

https://www.giraffeboards.com/showpo...&postcount=218
218 is a good follow up to interrogative with Silverjan. Seems like he is trying to get answers and act on them during the round, rather than skate.


So that, I take away more villagery than wolfy on the second pass.

I see where there is generic and fluffy and skatey, but there are serious counterindicators. Checking d2 again.

After the initial quoting of the vote tally, I see he does a multiquote wall of raven.

Now, I disagree with the conclusion that any of that is out of sorts for raven. This is what I have come to expect from town raven, in several examples.

People have real lives, and some players are not hardcore solvers, gotta solve every post as town, thats not how raven flies.

So I take it as an easy case a scum can make, but Guiri isnt satisfied with plopping an easy vote on raven after case walling her here.
https://www.giraffeboards.com/showpo...72&postcount=7

I dont know if I am there on Mord, but I am running out of spaces for townies to be.
This spreads the aggression and the case makes sense from a not-me POV and some generics of what I also believe.
https://www.giraffeboards.com/showth...74#post1739174

12 and 13 of that thread is the waterfall / continuing thoughts towntell from Guiri, which I should have noticed on the first pass. It indicates a seriousness of belief and a real time solving and processing and behaving indicative of natural townies.

https://www.giraffeboards.com/showpo...3&postcount=14
This also makes sense as a continuing solving process. Not only that, the push on silverjan reads as non-agendy assuming exactly Jan and Guiri are not a scum team together. It's a good nuance to pick up on, which scums tend to forget about.

34 again reads just fine and trying to solve for someones alignment by asking questions rather than being lazy and generic, particularly wrt the interactions with dizzy.

That is quite high level scum acting from guiri if it is.

36 is excellent. I can't get much from gnarlycharlie, still, but what stuff I was finding that was scummy about guiri is far more generic than the counterarguments I am able to generate on closer inspection and slower reading comprehension.

There are town tells in play here that indicate much more strongly against a Guiri vote today. Glad I rechecked all this, missed all of it on the first pass, looking for reasons to case Guiri.

Its hard to both attack and defend someone at the same time, you really have to shut off one to fairly do the other.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Originally Posted by Vanta Black

Well as you may have noticed there is not so much of the game to read!

I will update my leans list shortly.

I don't think we should triple-wrap toDay. I'm not even sure if we should double-wrap. It would be nice to knock off two scum but it would be disaster to knock off two town.

Single wrap is indicated here because town is not informed enough, active enough, or in a strong enough position to be risky with the tally.

The more divided the votes are in a low person count situation and with multiple wraps allowable, the easier it is for scums to manipulate the outcome. Its similar but not identical to why multivote allowed games are exceedingly pro scum.

In a one town versus one scum game, with more alive townies and fewer night kills, I would strongly advocate to wrap 2 people here, as it increases town's kill power.

Here, that power is just going to get misused.

[Dizzymrslizzy]

Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy

Alright I see you online Dizzy. I have limited time remaining and watching the infant, so talk to me. I will refresh often.

Don’t wait up for me, my head is gobble gook tonight. Tomorrow is a new day

[Meeko]

Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy

X reads like someone's scum teammate. Not sure whose.

I've taken out their name here, because I don't mean to add or remove from this line. I have no knowledge at all, in either direction here.

But, the statement in general. ... blows my mind.

Like, I understand what is being done here, as far as case building goes, right? But, ... the only way I can phrase it, .... How is this not one assumption too far, and how can anything out that far on that ledge be worthwhile, if the first assumption, that is the one that is not too far ... is closer, but still an assumption?

Also, I question that, when does this become diminishing returns? there is a 1/64th chance that, if its a full moon tonight that Y and Z are scummates, because W and ! didn't vote when T said that it was a bandwagon!

Like, sure I follow that A = B, and B = C, and then A = C. But..... I'm not sure further logic ""like this"" is indeed "like this" and or is as air tight.


And, right before I Was about to hit post...... "Sounds like someone's scum teammate" ... can "work" here actually connect two non-towns, but each from a different non-town team? At the same time, you did hesitate / hedge here... and so, I wonder if that hedge is like, could not end in this result.

[Meeko]

Originally Posted by Dizzymrslizzy

Don’t wait up for me, my head is gobble gook tonight. Tomorrow is a new day

And the day after is a new year.

[Meeko]

Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy

Spoiled here is the entire post that starts with ::


What I am seeing that can just be normal Guiri but pings me is as follows:

Respectfully, you are doing like, Calculus here. My brain flaked out around like Algebra II. Legit don't know why I need to know binomials and quadratic equations.

Like,


Am I supposed to be playing like this (Do we have a " gulp " emoji?)

[Pleonast]

Vanta Black is my second catch. I fully support their execution, but we need to split the town vote to keep control of the executions. guiri is my stronger scum lean.

[Meeko]

Originally Posted by Meeko

Respectfully, you are doing like, Calculus here. My brain flaked out around like Algebra II. Legit don't know why I need to know binomials and quadratic equations.

Like,


Am I supposed to be playing like this (Do we have a " gulp " emoji?)

And, for that matter..... That's great and all, but if you are Town, how far can we trust any of this? I guess that's what my last three posts have been getting at.

Damn, I can't even simplify my own equations here, much less groking others.

[Vanta Black]

Originally Posted by Meeko

...

And, for that matter..... That's great and all, but if you are Town, how far can we trust any of this? I guess that's what my last three posts have been getting at.
...

We can't trust any of this if he (or anyone) is Town because Town make mistakes ALL the time.

We also can't trust any of this if he (or anyone) is scum because, well, you know why.

We can build on what everyone says and trust our instincts.

[Vanta Black]

Originally Posted by Pleonast

Vanta Black is my second catch. I fully support their execution, but we need to split the town vote to keep control of the executions. guiri is my stronger scum lean.

This reads to me as if Pleonast is speaking to his scum mates, who he otherwise can't talk to during the Day.

Really? We need to split the town vote? No we don't. We need one execution. The 3-man scum team can swing a vote if town is not well consolidated. Hell, the 2-man scum team could do it too under certain circumstances.

[Vanta Black]

(also I am not a "they")

[Askthepizzaguy]

Originally Posted by Vanta Black

(also I am not a "they")

Preferred pronoun is?

[A Poor Shepherd Boy]

Who is still around?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Originally Posted by Meeko

Am I supposed to be playing like this (Do we have a " gulp " emoji?)

Play to your strengths using the experience and skill set and memories and facts that you have. While you can learn from others methods, continue to rely on your own until you understand and can reproduce other methods, and even then, only if you find it useful. I made a specific point in my guide of noting, there is no one correct way to play. While I have great success with my methods, others have success with theirs in ways I cannot duplicate because I am not skilled or experienced or naturally talented at those.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Originally Posted by A Poor Shepherd Boy

Who is still around?

I am technically here but functionally useless for most of the rest of the round.

There is too much on my plate here as a substitute with the time remaining in round and my bedtime approaching.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Attempting to factor in and sort.

Not todays: Prof here for the claim only, nothing else that I can grab yet since I didnt read a word except in passing. 5. Prof. Pepperwinkle --------- Plop Guiri here for the second pass, closer inspection of guiri posted above. 4. guiri / gnarlycharlie --------- 9. Meeko because of Meeko brainwave, which is reads identically to all previous Meeko brainwaves. 8. Dizzymrslizzy based on experience with town!dizzy behaving like this game. I have seen Dizzy mostly match this as scum recently, so thats the only reason why this isnt higher. She gets better, means, she gets harder to read. 16. SilverJan for the above mentioned towntell, its not much but its something. --------- 12. Annoying Christmas Singer for undiplomatic and sharpness, which means little due to being a sock, come endgame. That's six teals I would hit outside more than the first pass plus a blue. Alright, what do I got on the rest. Eight names where five should be scum are: 2. Pleonast is behaving standardly for Pleonast, which means less than I want it to. Not sold there yet. Feels like I should keep teal, but I have a lot of teal and he's good scum. 6. Bashorian Clement. One post feels, which is not stronger than the aboves, so this gets pushed down. Ive read almost none of this posts. I still would not recommend here. 10. raventhief behavior this game is standard raven behavior. I even got to see an iso of her, thanks to Guiri. So thats slightly more than nothing, even when it looks like nothing. Quite easy to duplicate as scum. Do not lean that this is the case here. 3. A Poor Shepherd Boy 14. Suburban Plankton 19. Mordenkainen --------- 11. Vanta Black, the initial generic attack pinged me and I hadnt seen anything villagery in interactions wrt other players to this point. Needs a focused read. 17. BillMc pinged me. Needs a focused read.

I had Plankton as a no hit, but space is very limited. Thats real close to too many townies. I can have towns out of order with the scums in my bottom 8 really easily. SP could be a lurky loo, I guess. I got nothing on villageriness there. 20th to 31st is a large gap of no activity.

Due to the stuff I think on others, SP with almost no content got pushed down very far on the reassess.

[A Poor Shepherd Boy]

Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy

I am technically here but functionally useless for most of the rest of the round.

There is too much on my plate here as a substitute with the time remaining in round and my bedtime approaching.

Can you tell me your current feelings on Lizzy and more on why you think multiwrap is a bad idea? I tend to think Town should use its 10:3:2 advantage.