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#101
3rd January 2022, 04:53 PM
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#102
3rd January 2022, 04:59 PM
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IMHO, we should eliminate Scum. It'd be great if we could eliminate one team first, and then the other, to reduce NKs, but we haven't that kind of information.
If we do go to wrap a second present, I'd prefer it was Pleonast, even if he's on a different team that ACS. I am going over all of Pizza's entries of toDay, along with everyone else's. I hope I'll have something of substance by tomorrow. |
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#103
3rd January 2022, 05:12 PM
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WR, Prof., thanks for answering that.
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#104
3rd January 2022, 05:47 PM
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#105
3rd January 2022, 05:50 PM
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#106
3rd January 2022, 06:17 PM
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On the fourth day of Christmas, Vanta gave to me
Four votes down Three side eye glances Two frozen birds And a gallon of eggnog to drown me in |
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#107
3rd January 2022, 06:33 PM
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(2) I was a little surprised to still be alive myself. |
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#108
3rd January 2022, 06:34 PM
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#109
3rd January 2022, 06:56 PM
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But I am not 100% convinced ACS is scum. I know you think scum wouldn't waste a save on him just to mess with us. Probably they wouldn't. But...they might. I am, however, 100% convinced that Pleonast is scum. Open scumming right here in the thread. So my preference would be wrap Pleonast for sure, with a side of ACS if we can swing it. I read Pizza's analysis of who's on whose scum team and this is something he knows how to do, and I don't. So it comes down a bit to trust. Something like: nobody has come in to save ACS so he's on the smaller scum team, the Mariahs. I hope I'm not naive, this sounds right to me, but I really don't know for sure. I think we need to do some open towning and see if we can get a consensus of who will vote for whom. Like, I will vote for Pleonast or ACS. Let's see what others say. And there ought to be some shenanigans I'm thinking. This is a start. We've got 6 votes on ACS already, some of those might be willing to move. But at all costs we have to get one of Pleo and ACS. Only counterwagon so far is askthepizzaguy. I'm hoping Jan will be willing to go back to ACS, she was willing at SoD and then I kinda derailed her. Right now: Quote:
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#110
3rd January 2022, 06:58 PM
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#111
3rd January 2022, 07:05 PM
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I did not read any exact replica of pizza's recommendations in what I read of his guide. I have not read every word. There were some that were similar, scum ways to mislead town. In this case what I can see is pizza changing his strategy a bit after Night, which could have happened if he spent some of the Night confabbing with his scum mates. Because it did change a bit. But I can't see the benefit to scum of the way it's going. If someone can, please share. |
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#112
4th January 2022, 02:32 AM
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No power here in Central Virginia after storm. Will return when I can.
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#113
4th January 2022, 03:57 AM
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The vote counter link in the opening post was wrong, but has been fixed.
We have just over 2 days left in the Day. Quote:
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#114
4th January 2022, 04:21 AM
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I'll be curious to see how ACS votes, if he does.
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#115
4th January 2022, 06:39 AM
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Finally getting back to a more usual schedule.
It seems some players are not understanding the implications of the execution system. On Day One, the teams were 13-3-3, with one execution available. If 7 town voted for a single player, scum by themselves would not be able to stop the execution of that player. Thus, town controlled that execution. This is the typical state of a typical mafia game. On Day Two, the teams were 10-3-2, with three executions available, requiring votes of 5-5-2 to use them. If town split 5-5 between two players, those two players would be executed, with scum unable to stop them. Thus, town controlled those two executions. The third execution could not be controlled by town--we mechanically could not prevent scum from determining one execution. Now on Day Three, the teams are 7-3-2, with two executions available, requiring votes of 4-4 to use them. With 7 town, we can control one execution, but not a second--a second execution requires scum cooperation. |
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#116
4th January 2022, 06:40 AM
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I wish moderators provided up-to-date game state information. Hopefully this is correct:
1. Lightfoot -- Ordinary Mall Santa -- Killed Night One 2. Pleonast 3. A Poor Shepherd Boy 4. 5. Prof. Pepperwinkle 6. Bashorian Clement 7. Archangel -- Mariah Carey Backup Doctor -- Executed Day One 8. Dizzymrslizzy -- Ordinary Mall Santa -- Killed Night Two 9. Meeko 10. raventhief -- Ordinary Mall Santa -- Killed Night Two 11. Vanta Black 12. Annoying Christmas Singer 13. Swammerdami -- Ordinary Mall Santa -- Killed Night One 14. Suburban Plankton 15. 16. SilverJan 17. BillMc -- Ordinary Mall Santa -- Executed Day Two 18. Christmas Sock -- Ordinary Mall Santa -- Killed Night One 19. Mordenkainen |
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#117
4th January 2022, 06:40 AM
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Living player claims and whatnot:
2. Pleonast -- claims not a Doctor 3. A Poor Shepherd Boy 4. gnarlycharlie 5. Prof. Pepperwinkle -- claims Cop, investigated Meeko is Town 6. Bashorian Clement 9. Meeko -- investigated as Town by Prof. Pepperwinkle 11. Vanta Black -- claims Vig, killed Christmas Sock, failed to kill Annoying Christmas Singer 12. Annoying Christmas Singer -- survived claimed Vig kill 14. Suburban Plankton -- AWOL 15. Askthepizzaguy 16. SilverJan 19. Mordenkainen |
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#119
4th January 2022, 06:42 AM
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My leans
3. A Poor Shepherd Boy -- no good indications of alignment yet. 4. gnarlycharlie -- possible scum due to guiri's reaction to my fishing. 5. Prof. Pepperwinkle -- low risk of being scum since no counter-claim, but one AWOL player makes this risk higher than usual. 6. Bashorian Clement -- no good indications of alignment yet. 9. Meeko -- using info available to me and assuming P.P. is truthful, there's 2/7 (29%) of Meeko being Scum, 5/10 (50%) of other players not me or P.P. 11. Vanta Black -- some risk of being scum because of surviving Night and also there's an AWOL player. And their reaction to my fishing. 12. Annoying Christmas Singer -- likely Scum, especially because Scum are playing risk-averse (risk-taking Scum would've targeted claimed Cop or Vig). 14. Suburban Plankton -- lack of participation means lack of counter-claims is not as strong as would usually be. 15. Askthepizzaguy -- play seems to link them with Meeko. 16. SilverJan -- no good indications of alignment yet. 19. Mordenkainen -- no good indications of alignment yet. |
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#120
4th January 2022, 09:19 AM
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The more I go over Pizza's arguments, the more I agree with Vanta that he does seem to be cuddlling. BUT, that may well be the exigencies of having little time and realizing he needs to follow, rather than lead.
I'm for taking this a step at a time. First we wrap ACS (and, if possible, Pleo), then we get more information (and possibly a Vig NK) toNight, and go on from there. I have strong Town leans on Vanta and Meeko, and nobody else. |
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#121
4th January 2022, 09:20 AM
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If this was just about any other game I'd be after Plankton for nonparticipation, but circumsntances don't warrant it.
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#122
4th January 2022, 09:28 AM
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#123
4th January 2022, 10:03 AM
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Eliminating Suburban Plankton will have the side effect of increasing the confidence in the claims of Prof. Pepperwinkle and Vanta Black. But since they are likely Scum victims, I'm not sure it's worth it compared to targeting likely Scum.
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#124
4th January 2022, 10:53 AM
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What do you think about Pleo? We're not wrapping pizza today, as I see it. How about you switch your vote to Pleo, and if he gets wrapped and turns out not to be scum, I shoot pizza tonight? |
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#125
4th January 2022, 03:18 PM
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Second night with no power. No heat. No fun.
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#126
4th January 2022, 10:58 PM
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#129
5th January 2022, 06:19 AM
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In the hopes of taking out two Scum with one election. |
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#130
5th January 2022, 06:25 AM
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#131
5th January 2022, 06:36 AM
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Let us begin with an oog issue.
Quote:
Now, one game related issue before a longer-to-draft post. ACS has, as far as I can remember, been present but has not participated. Their posts are nothing but a distraction; an annoying one at that. I can see voting him into the gift-wrapper. In fact, let's do so. Next up; Pleo. |
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#132
5th January 2022, 07:06 AM
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Today's posts by Pleo with some commentary.
Post 43 has attracted a lot of attention, being categorised by multiple players as "openly Mafiate" or "Mafia coordination." He votes ACS despite a preference for gnarlycharlie, on the grounds that the fact that ACS is alive means he must have been protected from Vanta's claimed kill action (I need to check that out). My takeaway is that it is exceedingly unlikely that Pleo and ACS are on the same Mafia team; they could both be Town, but that seems unlikely given this post. Next up is post 92 in which Pleo urges we not go for multiwrapping as Town "does not have control" of the second Wrap. He expands on this in post 115 explaining that either of the Mafia teams could stop a second Wrap by denying the votes necessary for the second Wrapping. I feel that this is not complete. My concern is that he seems to be assuming that the Town players can act in unison. Without the ability to coordinate off-thread this is a dicey proposition. What normally happens in the early game is that the Town fractures among several candidates, and that gives the Mafia a chance to steer the vote in an advantageous way. That has its risks of course. Post 123 comments on proposals to eliminate Suburban Plankton. He counsels against on the grounds that Mafiates are likely to target the people who's position would likely benefit from the knowledge of SP's role. I'm mot sure exactly what to make of this. It feels like a bit of a stretch; on the other hand I think that SP might better be handled by Vig action Tonight; that being up to the holder of the Vig role. I'm going to take a second post on the other four of Pleo's posts after a short break. |
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#134
5th January 2022, 09:05 AM
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Quote:
Somehow I jumped straight from post 115 to 123 without noticing that Pleo also made posts 116 to 119. That's probably an artefact of the way I viewed his posts. Taking up where I skipped over, post 116 is simply a statement of the gamestate as it stands, listing dead players and living so he has a record of who's who. Post 117 lists claims to date. Post 118 urges wrapping of ACS Today. Finally, post 119 sees Pleo discussing his leans. In summary, he is suspicious of ACS, gnarlycharlie and Vanta Black, seemingly in that order. His suspicion order seems to have shifted since post 43, but is consistent with his vote. I am suspicious of Pleo after this, but I'm going to chase down the claims and refresh myself on the setup before proceeding to decide whether I should switch my vote.. |
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#135
5th January 2022, 09:08 AM
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#136
5th January 2022, 09:31 AM
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Ok. Prof P. made his first claim as far back as post D01.092.. I suspect that the Mafia teams have been playing around the hight probability that the still-hidden Town Doc would have protected him in the Hights.
The good Prof claimed to have investigated A Christmas Sock on Night 1, but they were Weapped, thus releasing the info tha he had gained. Prof claimed ion post 14 that he had investigated Meeko and gave a Town result. Pleo stated that this gives Meeko a 2/7 chance of being Mafia, which I agree with. I can't see this working for long as a Mafia claim. It falls too easily in a two-Mafiate game; as soon as he fingers a Townie as the other Mafiate and they flip Town, he's toast. If he goes the other way and ID's a Mafiate of the other team as Town, they know he's lying and to avoid trying to off him until the Docs on his team are Wrapped or NK'd. |
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#137
5th January 2022, 09:44 AM
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Then, Vanta.
Post N2.09 sees Vanta Black claim Vig, and that in N1 he targeted A Christmas Sock, who was Prof P's chosen investigation target that Night. Pleo has expressed heightened suspicion of Vanta as a result of his survival N2, but there are some mitigating curcumstances, the chief of whoch is that the Foc might have protected VB and nor Prof P. As I said above, the Mafia have to play around the Town Doc's protection and although they don't know which will be protected, they can be sure one will be. The other It's also possible that neither Mafiate team saw the claim, but I doubt that. Of course, given the timing they might all have been hung over and failed to absorb the claim before Dawn. I don't believe it, but it is possible In summary, I'm happy with voting either Annoying CS or Pleo. I'll think about switcching if we might get both Wrapped Today. I have to pay a visit to hospital tomorrow AM, but should be back in time for Dusk. |
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#138
5th January 2022, 10:10 AM
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Bottom line, while we always have a risk of a scum-influenced execution, at least there's a possibility of a town-controlled execution. A third execution of Day Two or a second of Day Three has mechanically zero chance. I was willing to try for a second execution YesterDay, but a second execution ToDay is simply giving scum a bonus kill. Given the track record of no cross-kills, I'm not willing to do that. |
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#139
5th January 2022, 04:18 PM
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Limited login time available to me. This is when baby is asleep and so is everyone else. Work tomorrow.
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#140
5th January 2022, 04:39 PM
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This is what I am reading as I go along, when I read the following post.
Note: This can read like sarcasm or mockery. That is why communication via written text can be ambiguous. Its neither thing. This is what I am seeing as intentions when I see Jan commit to the following thoughts and positions, from my perspective.
So that is what I am hearing in my mind when I am reading that post. That's what it sounds like to me, because I am pizza and I hold the pizzaguy card which says Mall Santa on it, in a MYLO voting situation where Jan decided I was scum after I logged off in the previous day, exactly the same way Vanta Black did in Return of the Clowns on Day Four when I was dogpiled by scum after I logged off in the day phase. The blatant display of not voting with town and voting for a townie here indicates to me that Silverjan is absolutely signalling to the opposing scum team that she can reliably be counted on to vote against town if they do so as well today. Can this be wrong? Of course. Can Jan simply be incorrect? Uh huh. Can she have stuck up for a vulnerable but turned out to be scum archangel despite not being on AA team? Sure, that's not hard to explain from a day one townie. Would I be forced to evaluate her on those terms if she bothered to ever vote with town and for a scum at any point? Absolutely. Do I need to do so under these circumstances? Or can I do so, is the point? I cannot do so. To do so is gambling the game on someone openly siding with scum all game long without fail, who has no sense of urgency, no sense of danger, no desire to solve, no case work, no suspects outside of pizza which is incorrect, in a situation where, like Return of the Clowns Day Five, she literally needs to have more than one suspect at a time or she is not town at all, and still failed to produce multiple suspects of her own or vote with town. So I don't need to continue putting mental processing power into Jan's alignment. That's a dead end for me (personally). Others have to continue to evaluate her, but if she is town, the game is already over for town, more or less. I could invest more time into Jan's alignment than this, but due to a lack of overall time, and these specific circumstances, that cannot be anything but a time sink. Each one of the yeets and vigs remaining have to be on a scumbag, because town is in that position. And, again, like Return of the Clowns Day Four, I would rather be voting with other scums on a scumbag, than with a townie on a townie. In the event something absolutely silly like a lack of coordination between teams occurs, or within teams, and the scums are caught voting divided, and town votes united in a manner that doesn't lose, then it once again matters what Jan's alignment is. Until then, I actually have to proceed with the game as though I know Silverjan is scum aligned, even when I do not actually know that for a fact. Which is a real shame when that's not the case, but the choice isn't really up to me anymore. And I am explaining why. And those reasons might not make total sense to someone if they play the game really casually and for funsies and don't have that sense of urgency or minding of the tally, which is a thing that has already happened in the previous day phase, meaning, townies voting willy nilly and in a manner that cant even cause a yeet even if they were correct. Why I wrote this post despite the massive danger it doesnt get understood or read correctly: Because it is important to be absolutely open and honest and communicate as clearly as possible in this exact situation. That way, if and when Jan is somehow town, there is that one percent chance the game isn't thrown away today. Because I have to think about that scenario, because I don't have the luxury of not considering that scenario and trying to path out a victory for town in that scenario. I have to try to win the game for town even when that happened to be the case, and that would be a win that would be snatched not from the jaws of defeat, but the lower intestines. I have done it before, but not completely. I did reverse at LYLO on two players I thought were town and two players I thought were scum and had them exactly the opposite, but I didn't do it completely. I only got halfway there in time. That's really hard for town to ever do. It's nearly impossible. If Swammerdami wasn't super duper lock town to me in ROTC by Day Four, his vote there for me would have sealed town into a loss. Thankfully it was MYLO and scums didn't vote united. Here, something similar may be happening so I thought about it. Spent a good 20 minutes thinking on it and typing it out, time I really needed to solve everyone else, just to make sure I wasn't overlooking the Jan is town scenario. You lock a townie as scum here and town loses no matter how many other guesses are correct. That's burned my ass a jillion times already and ruined otherwise incredible games and 100 hour efforts by me, and I learned that lesson and wrote pages about it as literal lessons elsewhere. If you fill in a sudoku incorrectly with a single number, in permanent ink, the puzzle cannot ever be completed properly. Right now, Jan is marking down my name incorrectly in permanent ink. And I am checking her carefully and my only conclusion has to be that she is doing it deliberately, considering everything else she is doing and has done. Can a townie look exactly like they are doing all that deliberately? Yes. Can I afford to think that way after end of day today? That's Jan's deadline for looking anything like a villager in any way shape or form. After that, no, I have to close off that universe forever. |
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#141
5th January 2022, 04:48 PM
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Gnarlycharlie should have seen the mention tag and placed a vote.
Not voting under these circumstances is not acceptable, literally every townie needs to place a vote and in a united fashion today. Again, sense of danger, minding the tally, and sense of urgency. All of those things are needed for town at MYLO and LYLO and hopefully on every day before that. I had a large case I am still leaning that Guiri/Gnarly is town. Not voting today weighs incredibly hard against such a case. You have to place a vote. |
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#142
5th January 2022, 04:51 PM
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On the fifth day of Christmas, Vanta gave to me
FIVE GOLDEN POTATOES Four votes down Three side eye glances Two frozen birds And a gallon of eggnog to drown me in |
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#143
5th January 2022, 04:53 PM
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I marked down Pleonast as openly scumming, and he is en prise today. If that's wrong I have to see it before it is too late.
I didnt get a chance to reevaluate Bill yesterday or even hear a defense. At least here I got to see Pleonast react to being accused and seeing what he did. Thoughts on that. I have to shake my brain like an etch a sketch because confirmation bias is huge. |
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#144
5th January 2022, 04:55 PM
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While I am busy, I am posting to note this post existed. |
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#145
5th January 2022, 04:59 PM
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Dizzymrslizzy is subbing in for A Poor Shepherd Boy.
I am still not doing substitutions, but as you all have seen, Poor Shepherd has difficult circumstances and I decided to go ahead and make the substitution this time as well. |
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#146
5th January 2022, 05:09 PM
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Well well, so nice to be back from my premature death….
So I actually have been somewhat reading today. I agree singer dude needs to go, and I see my current vote is there. I’m good with that, although as I said last night, there’s a whole slammin load of wine that goes along with that. One scum team could have set up singer dude to look guilty as hell. I didn’t really think this through because I didn’t need to make decisions on this as a spectator. Pleo, I think is just being Pleo Pizza worries me. I think he’s being scummy controlling this game vs Townie helping. He snuggled dead me and Meeko a bit much to my liking.
__________________
The Dizziest Lizzy |
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#147
5th January 2022, 05:24 PM
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Quote:
There is a hurdle of the basics of the basics that people have to do to look credible town, meaning: You can be town, but only because that is the alignment you randed, not because it is visible in any way to anyone else playing the game. That's when you're not hitting the basic hurdle. You can be scum, but look town, because you are doing the bare minimum to look like a credible townie trying to play and solve the game for town. You can be town, trying to solve the game, and you remain credible when you hurdle that bar. Vanta Black, claim aside, has been going above that bar, even despite my reservations yesterDay phase about how the suspects didn't match being an indication of scum, which I didn't follow. Before the claim. Meaning, yesterday, when I suspected Vanta Black, Vanta was still solving to a degree I expect from town Vanta, even though a thought appeared from Vanta which seemed to be specious and opportunistic. While that can be a good cloak, and Vanta is capable of that, it was on my radar for suspicion, but not "push to death". Bill had until that point not hit the bar, for what I think town should be doing. But, its the holidays and Bill is notoriously busy IRL a lot. It's just hard to sort the noise from the signal there, and Meeko and Dizzy shone town to me, and I wanted to vote with them to have a chance of outvoting scums. I also didn't have time for a process where anything but push to death was possible with my vote. And because I was pretty sure from cold read that Bill was vanilla at worst, I felt it was safer than firing wildly into players like BC or SP or APSB or Vanta or Mord iirc who had all dropped out of my not todays and into consideration. Of the people who would bother to read this and try to process it for my alignment, this is written mainly for Pepperwinkle's eyes. Each day, there is a kind of "gravitational effect" on my leans lists. When you do not hurdle any kind of bare minimum or otherwise convincingly keeping cloak, you move down the leans list, provided there is anyone that can be moved up above your name. As can be seen in the last game of town I played, all names moved down toward the bottom over time until I had a reason not to, and in most games of town before that. Even you, Pepperwinkle, moved out of my safeties in the Colby11 game where I played King Bowser. You moved down because I perceived a scum plan when you described what the scums were planning to discredit me. I felt it was meant to credit yourself. Of course, it turned out you were not involved, but anything I saw that could plausibly win for scums or didn't seem like the more natural conclusion for a basic townie, would move you down. That "gravitational effect" almost always sorts scums to the bottom of my leans list eventually, because in order to fight it, scums have to maintain "cloak" in order to hurdle the basic bars of looking townie. Which means they have to plausibly, creditably, logically, reasonably look like they are town. Which means voting like a townie should, solving like a townie should, and getting the otherwise visibly "gettable" scums and finding deep scums who escaped the gravity well as a "do it later" or "do it separately" challenge. It's easier to hit someone who looks townie enough if you hit X and Y and Z who look scummy now, and flip them scum, and time exists before LYLO or MYLO. You build town credibility. You attract murders. You snatch the control of the momentum of the game away from scums. It is tougher when there are townies who do not hit the bare minimum, so you have to sort those people who look exactly like scums from the actual gettable scums. That's a complication. But for example, Gnarly or Jan are both not hitting that bare minimum today, and I feel one of them is town and one of them is scum. I am prepared to be wrong about it, but it would help my solve if you scanned Gnarlycharlie tonight. The reason I am asking is because a scan of innocent on Jan doesn't mean I can clear Jan right now. Jan can be on not AA team and be the godfather, and Pleo and Jan played good cop bad cop with Archangel. A scan of guilty on Jan wouldn't alter my leans list. It doesn't assist me with correcting errors contained within it. However, a scan of guilty on gnarlycharlie WOULD correct any error in my leans list. I have him cold read as town. Pretty confidently. But that is still in the realm of cold reading and guessing and there were counterindicators enough that the first things I saw were those indicators and I scum read those. So, you clarifying Gnarly's alignment would do nothing to my leans list when he is town. Guiri looks town to be on balance. But if you clarified that Gnarly is absolutely a scumbag, that fixes an error on my leans list. It also puts him into consideration tomorrow for the yeet whenever you survive the night with that scan, whether I live or not. That is why I need your help. I need you to scan Gnarly or at the very least someone LIKE Gnarly on my leans list. Someone I think is town, but you can disprove. That is the only way your scan actually assists my solve. Ex: I had Meeko as town. You confirming that means little to my list of leans, and isn't proof in this setup, whereas a guilty scan is proof and does fix an error. Your goal as cop is to fix errors, and find findable scums. You already know this. You're smarter than I am (it wasnt my first thought that the raventhief murder in the Colby game was done to frame me, and you werent involved. Thats a genius level guess for an uninformed, and youve always had my immense respect thereafter). I am just reiterating that I also know this, and that I am asking for this specific favor to fix my leans when they are wrong about gnarly or people like gnarly in my leans list. That's my ask. @Prof. Pepperwinkle |
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#148
5th January 2022, 05:30 PM
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Quote:
It took a lot of observation with me not in games and Meeko in games to feel confident there. As for snuggle, I can see that. My affection for both of you as people combined with my extreme sense you were town in a setup where its hard to know where to start looking for townies. Look to the Return of the Clowns game, specifically how I felt about Mahaloth. He was already dead by the time I had subbed in. I was still gushing over how townie he looked to me, which was an aberration. I never can read Mahaloth. But in the quicktopic where I was solving the game as a spectator, all I could do was rave about how townie the dude looked to me for the first time in forever. Then he died and flipped town and one of my first thoughts was to gush to him during and then after the game how townie he was. The excitement of getting a guess you feel confident on, when the person is otherwise extremely difficult for me to get there on, is extreme. That can look like snuggling. Absolutely. |
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#149
5th January 2022, 05:50 PM
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You will also see me getting into a groove of being able to read Raventhief town.
Pleonast game, day one, with the multiple threads, and this game. I noted for the record, man, that's easy as hell to fake when you are scum. You don't have to hit any kind of bar like I was just referring to in post 147. A player like that isn't usually hitting obvious "I am behaving like a townie does" hurdles. Those players are very very difficult for me to read based on tells or behaving like a townie. Scum tells, also difficult to produce, because they have to be doing team actions. In other words, moves that assist the team during day as opposed to night. It is otherwise a perfect "cloak", referring to star trek klingon/romulan cloaking device as a metaphor. Raven can do a performance exactly like Pleonast experimental, and exactly like Day One and Day Two of this game, every game, and it will look functionally identical. Knowing that I base my read on Raven on motion, basically. She was immobile all game, therefore she was town. And I don't mean mechanically. I mean, she didn't do anything that indicated to me she was trying to "look town". Because she doesnt look town when she is town. All the way back to the Colby11 game where I roleplayed Bowser. Same deal. three games, same behaviors. She doesnt look town like normal townies behave, ever. For her, not hurdling is normal. Is that something I can be confident on? No, but I didn't think she would play against that type of analysis as I hadnt revealed my method of reading her until this post. Its worthless in future games, but here, I was happy to put Raven above a lot of names on my leans lists yesterday, because even though she hadnt done anything, she still looked more like her villager self than all of those other names. That's a lot of weight assigned to a read of a player which is a method of solving a player I consider very high risk. Meta is garbage. It's weak, specifically. There is nothing weaker than meta. If you know your meta you can play against it. I feel Raven's meta is the easiest meta to play against when she is a wolf. But I also think Raven would behave like a team player when she is a wolf, meaning, she would visibly have committed a "scum move" by day two if she was a wolf in this setup. Its important for each member of the small teams to bring value and benefit to their wolf pack. She wasnt really doing that, or gaining town credits, thread control, directing traffic, any of it. Risky call. Very risky call. But it was one I felt confident making despite the otherwise dearth of information you could glean from her posts on cold read. I think Raven would bring value to her wolf pack by doing something by end of day two. Thats complicated by the fact that she doesnt have to if theyre not under pressure and it was the holidays. Thats a very very gut check read. Why my confidence on that read was low, whereas day one of Pleonast experimental game, the read started high and weakened when she did nothing, and dithered on making reads or decisions, and ultimately called my alignment wrong. Here, she did the same thing, up to and including the last bit, which happened after I made a read on her. Its all normal for Raven. Meeko being suspect of me, yeah. We're essentially aliens. I am speaking gookachuckajoob and he's speaking argle bargle. We both look bizarre to everyone else in the game and to each other. Our thought processes are so foreign from one another that it is confusing and misleading. Basic communication is hard. Dizzy, well.... as for your previous incarnation of yourself: I do note that you tend to base your alignment reads of people based on how much they agree with you and your reads and how townie they say you are. Either that, or it is an incredible coincidence. But that is baseline for you. And you were doing all of that. And you had multiple suspects and not behaving differently from who you normally are when, it is multiball, and a change of strategy is indicated over a standard scum versus town game. Its a completely different beast and you were the same Dizzy Ive always known. That means you were, like Raven, not making any telltale "team moves" that assist the scum. You can have an excellent cloak by not making any team moves. But I gamble when it comes to you or Raven or Meeko that if you are scum, you are a team player and dont go 100 percent cloak. You would more value the strength of working as a wolf pack rather than maintaining cloak perfectly and being a loner that otherwise doesnt assist your team in its goals. I think that value applies to most players, in fact. Its why, when all my other solving processes come back with huge question marks and I have no farking ideas, I look for team behaviors and compare it to meta. You can find team behaviors in almost anything, because you dont know the team, so you dont know what specifically benefits them at the time. It doesnt benefit scum Dizzy to yeet scum BillMc yesterday and attract the ire of opposing scum. That's why i town read you, because I scum read Bill. Absent scumtells, which you hit all the time as town, absent other extensively time intensive processes, I go to meta which is weak and looking for the existence of telltale team behaviors, which is weak because I lack info. Thats much stronger when, like Day Four and Five of Return of the Clowns, I had other suspects strongly nailed down. Then reading their behavior all game and finding "team behavior" in another player is much much much stronger. Its far weaker here, but thats what I had, and thats the methods I used to town read you, when all other solving processes fail me, and I am squished for time. |
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#150
5th January 2022, 06:07 PM
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Quote:
A townie does anything here to assist with the solve, sock or not, roleplay or not. |
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here but some 
Linear Mode
