Vegas Mafia Day Two

[Eristic Widgeon]

Originally Posted by guiri

But read-only, I guess, to avoid outside communications?

Yes, of course.

[Meeko]

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

And yeah, he did clear it up, so pardon me doing the redun-dance earlier. But I think I'm right to be positive on Archangel in light of all this. Seems like a sincere enough effort to suss things out.

-----

And then we get to Meeko's battery of posts.

Which I felt my heart drop reading, for several different reasons.

OOG :: I must absolutely, positively level with you here @Meeko.

Not a single thing I say in this indent will be fake, cap, bullshit, hogwash, or hot-chip-eating lies. I promise you.

You are absolutely valid, first of all. And I can tell you have a good heart. (the real you, of course, not the tangentially related character you have to play in an IM/UR game.)

It is never too late to start asking the important questions. It is never too late to stop blaming yourself for being stunted by those who've had power over you, and aimed to keep you small.

Nobody should be able to define you except YOU. If someone can't parse the fact that your body and your identity are yours to shape however you wish, that is THEIR problem, and it is absolutely unconscionable and disgusting that a minority of reactionary fuckheads are intent on making it everyone else's problem.

I do like you, and have enjoyed playing with you so far.

I have the utmost respect and sympathy for what you're going through, b/c I'm going through it too.

I feel the hopelessness, the rage, the apathy, the feeling of being lost and alone with a violent storm rolling over the horizon.

I understand completely how this comparatively trivial and silly role-playing guessing game can look in the face of all that. How you could think this is a dumb-ass waste of time that gets you no closer to shelter or peace, and how it could even get in the way of that.

At the very least, I think it's very visible how much of a slog this game has become for me.

But look what I've been able to do in spite of that.

And look at what you're doing in this post.

I can 100% understand being wary of being pocketed, and/or wanting to question a core read of yours, because shit has visibly gone pear-shaped for town. This is a button you should always be willing to press in this situation.

I can 100% understand how, based on a sound reevaluation, you can later decide that Vanta Black left a crumb that spews me wolf, and therefore it's optimal play to get me dead immediately.

But when I ask for clarity on the re-evaluation, the core of this read change, and you give me nothing but mud in response, that's a problem.

And it's baffling, b/c you acknowledge that this is mostly your baggage. You acknowlege that "this is not how things work", so I assume you're familiar with gambler's fallacy.

And yet.

AND YET.

You claim the core of your flip onto me is, and I quote:



With all due respect, this is not a sound re-evaluation. This is utter fantasyland nonsense.

If you were not in any condition to actually articulate your reasoning, fine. But if you're town, I was hoping you'd at least be honest about that. You'd have said "nope, rational brain gone fishin', try again later."

But you didn't. And with your latest posts pushing for my death literally as hard as possible based on this, allowing no mercy and no quarter...it's just plain bad, hun. There's no other way to slice it.

Which, as painful as this is to admit, tells me your IM/UR alter-ego is probably not living in the realm of truth. Not this game. Vegas!Meeko does not have solid ground to stand on.

-----



I guess the process looks pretty good here. Honestly I am really drained after that last response. But goddammit, I'm committed to see this through now, at least until BC posts a bunch later.

NETA :: And maybe to respond to the latest menchie.

----

Trust me, I can piss in my own oatmeal just fine.

I mentioned making a cold sheet earlier as an idle suggestion. I do not have the wherewithal to make one nor do I know the site policy on linking to changeable media like Gdocs.(nudge nudge @Eristic Widgeon). Maybe tomorrow.

I'm in the parking lot at work for my shift in 20 minutes.


I am a ball of emotions.

I would still be that ball, regardless of Kai's role and all of the rest. Even If I had voted or not.



Just. Not sure. I need time. Not sure if I need a IRL one day off of the game or a sub.

[Mordenkainen]

Texcat

I'm looking at her first because I voted for her Yesterday.

Two N1 posts; one I feel is a null tell; everyone should say that in the position Texcat was in last Night. The other, post N1.024 gets Gnarly's power wrong. The misstatement is so obvious I doubt whether she'd have made that deliberately, so I find it a null tell.

On to Day 2.

Texcat's first post is a question about multivoting. A null tell because she was clearly asking in response to multiple votes in the immediately preceding post.

Post 6 assumes that Vanta hid behind a Mafiate. This differs from mine in that I at first assumed Vanta had hidden behind PCM. I do find that slightly suspicious, although it's based on the hypothesis that one's first reaction was that Vanta hid behind someone of their own alignment. Post 8 is a follow-up that sees Texcat grasping more implications of the death.

Post 71 is an explanation of her vote for Gnarly over Vanta or guiri.

Post 123 suggests that Kaiveren is Town. Assuming Kai is eliminated Today, this will be interesting to revisit after the flip, especially if Kai is Mafiate, as certainly seems possible.

Post 125 sees Tex stating that Vanta's thoughts on Kai are not clearly a finding of Towniness, but felt Kai was not a likely Nightkill.

Post 126 challenges the votes on her, especially the unvote / revote of Mahaloth (which maha claimed was brain fade while switching votes to BC).

Post 158 votes Mahaloth for OMGUS voting with no comment, then promptly switches to Kai because she "likes the wagon."

Overall gives me a more townie feel than Yesterday, with the exception of her initial reaction to the deaths of N1, and possibly post 71; I would need to go and reread the end of D1 to put that post in context.

I'm content with my vote staying where it is.

[Mordenkainen]

Speaking of my vote, I apparently can't spell Kaiveran's name.





For vote count clarity!

[Kaiveran]

Originally Posted by TexCat

My gut read still says that Mahaloth is scum. I don't like the way he has OMGUS voted me today with no comment.

But I do think it's entirely possible that Vanta hid behind Kai last night. And I like the wagon on Kai. And I might need the self-defense vote again.



I'm going to work and will be mostly absent during the rest of the Day, but will try to check back on my phone.

How disingenuous.

Originally Posted by Archangel

We've got about 5 hours, people.

@Kaiveran I have voted Mordenkainen for playing like this multiple times where he flipped town. That doesn't mean he's not scum, but he has health issues that cause low participation.

And Colby is just completely unreadable in every game because he's very busy IRL.

I wish we had time to effectively compare to your earlier meta reads for strength because I've highly valued your input here, and I think my PoE on guiri's "slacker squad" earlier was a bit rushed. But again I trust you, I think there's a lot of confusion here that's affecting you and it's probably deliberate.

Originally Posted by Archangel

@Archangel
Because I don't think it's Kaiveran, I could be wrong about TexCat, and the multivoting seems like it could be disingenuous.

Originally Posted by Archangel

Oh yes, nearly forgot about Mahaloth. I was gonna say that either of them were an okay vote, and it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility they're w/w, but....

Originally Posted by Mahaloth

This was a true mental lapse.

...Mahaloth has the freest ML option in the world on me, b/c 90% of today's discussion has been about burying me, and he somehow chooses not to.

Could be a ploy to distract from his general lack of presence thus far, but come on, it's someone who's not him and he has the greatest opportunity for plausible deniability and/or blame spreading anyone's ever had in this game – why would scum!Maha throw away such an advantage?!

@Mahaloth, congrats on being town. Although I'm mildly irked to see I might have to self-pres onto BC.

Originally Posted by Eristic Widgeon

@Kaiveran, it sounds like you're asking if you could make a Google Docs spreadsheet and link to it? That would be fine. Generally you can post whatever you want, except for obviously gamebreaking things like screenshots of your PM.

Noted, @Eristic Widgeon.

I don't think it's really worth the effort, in hindsight, but thanks.

Originally Posted by Archangel

"Will affect both you and them."

Guiri is right. I'm sorry I misread this so many times.

Originally Posted by guiri

I hope we're right. There are still four worlds where Kaiveran is not scum:

1. Vanta simply chose not to use his power
2. Vanta actually hid behind PCM instead of Kaiveran
3. There's a strongman or otherwise unstoppable kill that over-powered Vanta's hiding power
4. Vanta was blocked, and killed independently

@Archangel
Give me a break.

guiri continues hard pushing me despite regularly harping on a list of alternate scenarios that indicate I'm not scum, a list that seems to just keep growing.

Combine that with out-of-the-gate insistence on a 3P, and your own damn reads.

I think certain contributions of his have been useful, granted, but it's clear that not all of them are genuine.

@guiri
You are obviously a very strong town player. I think this might be one of your first times rolling 3P, and you're doing alright at it.

But I think it's become exceedingly obvious at this point that's what you rolled.

No hard feelings, of course. Wincons are wincons, and loading me into the trebuchet is by far the most expedient way to live/fight another Day.

Just promise me you'll actually try to hit groupscum, tonight, okay?

Look hard at your "slacker squad", the people you called out for hanging back and doing jack shit with 24hrs to go.

Really, really hard.

Originally Posted by Mordenkainen

Afternoon folks. Three hours to go and I've only just caught up with today's activity.

Archangel.

Let's start by quoting the PM again, since having it to hand may make things easier.

Assuming Vanta used their power last Night, the first thing checked for was "Is Vanta hiding behind a Mafiate? If yes, Vanta is killed.

If Vanta used their power and was not killed, then Vanta was protected from all powers targeting Vanta. (As has been pointed out, there is the theoretical possibility of an unblockable power targeting Vanta, but at this point I consider that unlikely and will not address it further.) So a protection or kill aimed at Vanta would not work.

It seems likely that Vanta chose to hide behind either Kaiveren or PCM.

If Vanta chose to hide behind PCM then, since we know PCM was targeted for death and not protected, Vanta would have been killed by the same power aimed at PCM.

If Vanta chose to hide behind Kaiveren, then either Vanta would be killed if Kaiveren was Mafia, or would have been subject to any power targeting Kaiveren - not that we have any evidence of such powers. If anyone does know of a power targeting Kaiveren, would they consider sharing their evidence please?

In any case, Vanta left a hint strongly suggesting they used their power to hide behind Kaiveren, and Vanta died. This leads me to



@Kaiveren, you've stirred the mud in interesting ways. Come back and play again? hope you're in a better headspace.

Originally Posted by Mordenkainen

Aaaand, I see guiri managed to explain it better.

FWIW I agree with guiri in post 184 about the hypotheses suggesting how Vanta could die and Kai still be town. It's just that I find the crumb interpretation to be persuasive.

@Mordenkainen
Take a look at the above and see if you still. I think certain possibilities are being intentionally discounted for the purposes of guiri's survival.

Still not sure how to sort you, really.

I just know that this game and surrounding circumstances have left a very bitter taste in my mouth.

So I can't promise to come back, but I can promise to consider it.

[Archangel]

Originally Posted by Eristic Widgeon

Yes. If they were both town they would both have died if Kaiveran had been targeted by any killing power of any alignment (unless he was also targeted by a protective power, in which case both would live). The only scenario in which Kaiveran would survive while Vanta died is if he had some passive protective power like a bulletproof vest. That protection wouldn’t extend to Vanta, but any active protection power, including a self-protection, would have.

This is enough to cause reasonable doubt for me.

[Archangel]

No, sorry, I read that wrong. It's not enough to cause reasonable doubt because of the also.

Basically the only way what I thought happened could happen is if Kaiveran had a passive protection? If he did 'e would have claimed it.



Sorry, friend.

[Eristic Widgeon]

You’re beating a dead fox cat thing, AA. Night is up

[Meeko]

Originally Posted by Silverjan

Sorry, I won't do these odd pronouns, they make the hairs on the back of my neck stand up.

Silverjan ::

I will take one pass at this.

Why are Kaiveran's pronouns any different than mine?

I'll restate that, for the moment at least, I am still using He/Him. Even if I chaned to She, it's still 3 "new" letters for me. I don't see the issue.

Kai,

1. Are we still good?

2. I was (and still am) thinking that my drive / vote on you was the leading, if not only reason why you no longer feel welcomed here / want to play with us.

3.Devils advocate, and benefit of the doubt::

A. You absolutely, to the letter of what you said, meant that "Until the next indent" was 1000% truthful, right? I mean, I'm not sure how I can trust you here... Except that you came in as a Furry, and frankly, I know the set of comrobid ... Us Furs typically have. And yeah, I'll re emphasize the Brony aspects here, too.

Tell me I can trust your aside on my gender validation.


B. In hindsight, one hell of a scum tell there.

I will post more later. I'm already late clocking back in.

[guiri]

Town
Me (for SilverJan)

Take the rest with a pinch of salt...

Non-scum
Archangel - apart from my D1 read, the entire angst and frustration at understanding Vanta's role, flip-flopping on Kaiveran, defending em but eventually settling on em just felt real. Tinfoiling - I can't see it.
Meeko - happy with the progression during the Day, the early vote, solidified with the breadcrumb, and the plea to others in #133, plus Kaiveran's reaction to the vote. Tinfoiling - could the angst and sorrow be Meeko's real reaction to finding themself forced to bus a scumbuddy?

Lean non-scum
Lightfoot ISO, strong opposition to breadcrumbgate, went far out of her way to argue against the evidence, so far as to vote TexCat for her vote on Kaiveran, and threaten Bashorian with the same. Tinfoiling - she could be distancing from TexCat, if they are mates with Kaiveran it makes sense that 'eir colleagues split between jumping on the wagon and staying off, but there's quite a bit of hard distancing between them
Bashorian Clement ISO, on Kaiveran early, before breadcrumb was spotted, with some hesitation following Meeko, strenghtened read as evidence appears. Tinfoiling - could be hard bussing if they'd found the breadcrumb and determined Kaiveran was a lost cause.

Neutral/unsure
Silverjan ISO, did not want to give the new guy a pass in #138 but stayed off Kaiveran despite being aware of how easy it was to jump on with plausible deniability if town or earn town cred if scum, followed her gut on BC, despite her gut being wrong on GC D1
Colby11 ISO, still suspect he could be 3P, lack of content makes any read difficult, did not post between his promise to go back and reread in #55 and his return in #189 where he says he missed the breadcrumb, nothing after, no vote, no boats being rocked here at all
Mahaloth ISO, still need more here, I did not understand #122/165 where he voted Bashorian for jumping on the Kaiveran train, what was odd about it? Do you suspect it was a bus?

Lean scum
Mordenkainen ISO, D1#134/141 snuggle and indirect defense of Kaiveran stands out a little more now, comments on Kaiveran/Vanta in #131, returns in #186 with a little role-fishing attempt, factual re-hash of the previous discussion between Archangel and me, recognized 6 minutes later, was persuaded by the crumb - why now but not before in #131, since I spotted the crumb in #108? Changed stance on TexCat in #203, would like to hear current stance based on Kaiveran's flip.
TexCat ISO, I've been back and forth about TexCat, D1 leaned scum but her late return before EoD gave me pause, accurately guessed the sequence of events leading up to Vanta's death, conceded alternate explanations later, did not follow up on the search for crumbs, can't help thinking she found it, she seemed to believe Vanta hid behind Kai in #123/125, vote only landed on Kaiveran in #158, leaning scum again on her

Will look at Kaiveran's interactions with others, specially TexCat, Mordenkainen and Lightfoot.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement

I can't track the dynamic between Meeko and Kaiveran, but it seems Meeko is suspicious of Kaiveran so I'm riding a bit on that too.

Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement

Now that I think about it I'm not sure I want to hitch my horse to that buggy but let's see how it playhs out.

This doesn't track well with BC's conclusion in the previous post about how the town hider may have found a scum mechanically.

BC's own opinion about Kai's guilt by mechanical likelihood should be more important than how Meeko feels about it, especially without a negative opinion on Meeko. At last mention, Meeko was a town read.

I do not follow the process here, even if the conclusion was good. This process arrives at a good decision, states the mechanics as to why it was a good decision, and works backwards toward doubting the decision is good based on how Meeko, a town read, feels about it.

Exactly the same process that happened when Vanta had been blocked and his target was jailed in the clowns game, Vanta's partners arrived at the correct conclusion before town did, then worked backwards to arrive at doubt.

It's fine to doubt your suspicions, but the reason given is that a town read agrees with it. That doesn't help me read BC town.

Wrong thread, pardon me.