Vegas Mafia Day Four

[Askthepizzaguy]

Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement

I can't track the dynamic between Meeko and Kaiveran, but it seems Meeko is suspicious of Kaiveran so I'm riding a bit on that too.

Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement

Now that I think about it I'm not sure I want to hitch my horse to that buggy but let's see how it playhs out.

This doesn't track well with BC's conclusion in the previous post about how the town hider may have found a scum mechanically.

BC's own opinion about Kai's guilt by mechanical likelihood should be more important than how Meeko feels about it, especially without a negative opinion on Meeko. At last mention, Meeko was a town read.

I do not follow the process here, even if the conclusion was good. This process arrives at a good decision, states the mechanics as to why it was a good decision, and works backwards toward doubting the decision is good based on how Meeko, a town read, feels about it.

Exactly the same process that happened when Vanta had been blocked and his target was jailed in the clowns game, Vanta's partners arrived at the correct conclusion before town did, then worked backwards to arrive at doubt.

It's fine to doubt your suspicions, but the reason given is that a town read agrees with it. That doesn't help me read BC town.

[Askthepizzaguy]

@ Guiri

It's important for me to get BC's perspective on those events. I appreciate the help wrt the context of it, since I am not reading the whole game in order.

I need to be able to track why BC thought things and be able to walk his process out to the present time and have it make sense to me that BC thought these things.

The best person to give that perspective is BC.

[guiri]

Sure, just looking for something to do to move the game forward.

[Askthepizzaguy]

This is the remainder of the iso, where I have fewer questions.

I can follow most of this.

Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement I went to a fight and a hockey game broke out. I don't have a real good feel for this game. My usual methods of dissecting posts and looking for what is unusual aren't working. Kaiveran seems overly defensive for some reason. Well, it's not even that; there's something about his posting that gnaws at me. I can't help but look at him being a skilled maf, but I don't know that I can point at anything specific. Guiri I thought was pretty defensive Day 1, over-explaining things to a point where the horse wouldn't survive. I was suspicious of him especially, but I've backed off on that. His Day 2 posting looks more as an emerging Town leader than a defensive maf. Archangel I thought may have been pocketing me, but I almost always think that with her. But there's really no reason for her to do that as my presence has been minimal so I lean Town on her. Meeko it seemed to me was also more verbose than usual, but I feel a good vibe there. More frustrated Town than anything else. I don't have much on anyone else. I'm curious as to why my low profile hasn't generated more interest. I saw answers to some of the questions I posed Day 1, and they appeared to relate to oog stuff for the most part, but there were one or two things I asked that I don't think were answered, like the punctuation question. I don't recall that being answered, and it doesn't really matter right now given my current read on guiri. As far as more than one anti-town faction or player goes, it seems to me that Vanta's death points to there not being multiples despite gnarlycharlie's reveal. Or if there are, it's a survivor (which I guess wouldn't necessarily be anti-town) or someone else without a night kill. I'm confident that Vanta hid behind someone Night 1, and I'm confident that that player is a maf. Otherwise it seems we would've seen three kills it seems. There was something I wanted to say about Precambrian but I dont' remember what. I'm voting ofr Kaiveran at this time. I think Kaiveran is likely skilled at any alignment, but I don't get a Twon feel there. Here's three moderately solid town reads and Kaiveran in the scum column. The reason given on Kai makes sense, there was a hider and apparently the target was Kai and this was crumbed somewhere. There's also a sense that Kaiveran feels wrong without being able to point to a specific. The questions from day one were brought up. Whether they were answered or not doesn't seem to matter much as the matter is dropped. Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement guri/Kaiveran are not w/w meeko/Kaiveran are not w/w Without some great theatre anyway This tracks as solving. Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement A reason that I don't like multiquote in mafia on this board is the difficulty to respond to one thing. Here my question is wrt second snippet from the bottom, why weren't there three kills? If Vanta hid behind town, he couldn't have been targeted and killed, so Vanta either hid behind scum or Precambrian, right? In that scenario why wasn't there an additional kill? It could've been blocked, or the other anti-town force didn't kill, but no one seems to be addressing this. An early example of questioning whether the setup has additional anti town forces. This is relevant especially because the mechanics in question also relate to whether or not Kai was proven guilty or just questionable. Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement This is a good point. If there is another anti-town force, I can't say any two aren't w/w. As an aside, this is why I dislike not knowing whether or not the game is multiball with multiple anti town forces because it impacts whether or not I can form a towncore. As soon as there's the possibility, anyone can rescind a town read at any time for no reason and simply claim they're on a different team. You could suggest they aren't aligned. If you can say player X is not aligned with anti town force Y and a separate anti town force Z then you can say player X is likely town. Assuming you really believe the two sets of examples are not aligned, that's how you deal with that. Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement It's likely he hid behind Kaiveran is my guess, which makes Kaiveran a maf. It's like 50/50 but yeah, that's a reasonable likelihood. Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement And, of course, the Anti-Town Faction B's kill, if it exists, could have been blocked, docced, etc. This comes after a long bit of analysis on all the possibilities, and I agree with the logic here, and the conclusion that Kai is mafia often because of them, and that there may not be a second anti town alignment. Not a killing one, anyway. But it's also not strictly ruled out, which again, that's what I thought seeing the evidence. Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement One night kill again. Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement I'll go along with this Discusses a bit, and hops on the forming Mord wagon. Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement Actually looking at the vote count I want to do this. I could see either one. I don't follow why it's Mahaloth. I need to read the game for context, because BC often leaves his reasons unstated, but I can usually see them in plain sight just by reading what he was reading and arriving at similar conclusions. Still, @Bashorian If you can tell me explicitly, it will be helpful in reading your alignment as it saves me time. Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement What I'm saying is I think we have confirmation that Vanta hid behind Kaiveran. You suspect Mordenkainen, in part, for espousing that theory, but I think it's reasonable for Mordenkainen to do that given the information that was leaked. I just wanted to know if, in light of confirmation that Vanta hid behind Kaiveran, that changes your position on Mordenkainen at all. That's all sane stuff to think. Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement Are you claiming VT, Mordenkainen? Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement In response to Morden's claim and response to pressure, presumably. I have to read it out in full. Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement I voted Mahaloth to see what kind ov vote shifting that might cause. Before LightFoot said anything about not learing anything from a landslike. I always intended to go back to Mordenkainen. Which I did. If Mordenkainen is maf I wonder who he would have voted had Mahaloth not been a leader. I'm tinfoiling guiri but that's all it is. It seems that if LIghtFoot were scum she would have not let it go to a tie unless both Mordenkainen and Mahaloth were town. Why is SilverJan ruled out? Sorry several thoughts packed in there. I added spacing. The behavior wrt adding a second option instead of it just being a landslide on Mord makes sense, especially given BC did move back to Mord. What I didn't see was why Mahaloth was a good option to vote as an alternative, but it doesn't seem to be the point of the vote in the first place. It doesn't matter what BC really thinks of Mahaloth if the vote is intended to be bait to see who jumps on. He could even think Mahaloth is town to do that. Either way is valid when you're looking for info. I can follow why BC said that about Lightfoot. Lightfoot and Mord should usually be unaligned, but I have seen partners let partners go to a tie before, because it helps you look unaligned. So all by itself its not conclusive. Better than nothing. It's no longer my mystery why Jan is ruled out, so I would ask others weigh in with their thoughts as to whether that's true, and why, so I can follow their process.

There's a lot of mechanics and discussing the obvious. However, there are also some reads, so I can at least model BC's solve here. Following up next post.

[Askthepizzaguy]

The above post is the parts of the iso I don't have as much in terms of questions for.

Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement

For some reason I thought Day ended today and that I missed voting. Happy to see we have a coupoe of days yet.

You voted Mordenkainen to death yesterday, I am not seeing a change in that feeling. Is that correct?

Reading your work all game, your reads unless they have changed equate to a solve that looks like this, with - to separate tiers.

Bashorian Clement
Meeko
-
Guiri (tinfoiled)
Colby ("town based on voting") but not sure why.
-
Lightfoot (not sure, but suggested not w/w with Mord)
TexCat (not mentioned?)
-
Askthepizzaguy/SilverJan (Specifically mentioned and questioned)
Mordenkainen (Specifically mentioned, and voted previously)

Is that your current status?

[Askthepizzaguy]

What are the likeliest pairs remaining and why-

if it was BC/Mord my thinking is that the vote for Mord today would be more automatic. There was already a previous vote Mord to death vote placed on d3. BC's reluctance to engage or join the Mord wagon after having hopped on several previous wagons gives me pause.

It could be BC/TexCat if I thought it was TexCat. I would need to iso TexCat before such an accusation.

Mord/TexCat remains an option if I thought it was TexCat.

I need to iso Mord and see if I can find reason to disagree with myself that there's pairing between Mord and Kai, but unless I have a specific alternative candidate I don't recommend moving votes at this time.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I can continue isos in several hours, I don't know that I can do many more before EOD.

[Askthepizzaguy]

@Colby
@TexCat

I haven't gathered all your posts but on a quick think I don't know what the state of your solve is, or your leans.

Can you help me out with that before end of round?

[Askthepizzaguy]

@Colby11

You're the only Colby I have in my life. See above post.

[Askthepizzaguy]

@Mordenkainen

Due to time constraints I'm going to ask you to give me your leans as well, I'm isoing you next as soon as I can but if I have questions or your leans or processes are unclear I'm probably not going to have time to do a back and forth with you and get answers before day ends.

So, anticipating I might not grasp where your leans are and why, can you state them or link me to them.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I'm actually reading the game in chronological order atm, while kid is napping and other is playing quietly.

Originally Posted by Colby11 I do have a question- Texcat, please explain why you thought Gnarly was a better choice than Vanta? Obviously Guiri was protecting themselves last minute, but what is your thought process? Apologies if you have answered this question in the N1 thread or somewhere else… Why is it that I’m getting ATPG vibes from Guiri in that he is trying to control the narrative? Although since Kaiveran reads like a Pizza clone, maybe there are three of them. Kinda glad we weren't all in the game at the same time, it'd be unreadable.

It goes a lot faster with the dead towns on iggy mode.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I did an absolutely terrible thing that I don't recommend, which is that I included a couple very talkative people who I think are town in my list of people I excluded in my readthru.

A) I dont have a lot of time and needed a way to make it shorter.
B) I'm not playing competitively, but as a warm body.

So if this sucks and borks my reads, the end result is my fault. But at least I've read the game in chronological order, and actually read Mordenkainen front to back, and anyone else I consider suspect front to back as well.

those are things I wanted for that price.

[Askthepizzaguy]

The non-multiquote-wall version of what I noted:

Leaning against TexCat+Mordenkainen as being the team.
Leaning against Lightfoot+TexCat as being the team.
Mordenkainen's vote for Kai was reasoned out in a way that it doesn't appear to be TMI. Multiple scumtells pinged me in his posts outside of that, including "I disagree" and "I find it interesting", cautious about appearing hypocritical for criticizing someone for a thing he does himself, which is self conscious.

A vote for Lightfoot that charged that because LF didnt vote for Kai, they're paired. It's thin, but it was in agreement with TexCat who made a similar charge.

I forgot why I had Lightfoot as town, I believe it had to do with my iso of Kaiveran.

Tex and Mordenkainen suspected Lightfoot. I did have a question:

Originally Posted by LightFoot

Here guiri/ Mahaloth and to a smaller extent BC look non Scum
Tex and Mordenkainen not as much
Colby who seemed to grasp the crumb didn't vote?
I need to revisit Maha's comments on the subject.

Myself was in left field on the crumb

Why did Mahaloth look like town to you just from reading the vote counts up to this point? It could be something simple I am missing.

@LightFoot

[Askthepizzaguy]

What I have on Lightfoot being villagery is her behaving like herself. It's not particularly rapid or aggressive play, it's her typical lawful-good slow and steady approach, asking questions, all that good stuff. There's no out of character pushing of a particular agenda that I can tell, if there is, it neatly fits within what looks like normal suspicions.

I would think if Lightfoot were Kai's partner, the mechanics of the game put writing on the wall for kai's longevity. I'd imagine Kai's partners would intuitively understand that chaining themselves to Kai directly by defending Kai or attacking their accusers is not great.

That plus the size of the Kai wagon makes me look for bussers. It's just, buddy gets caught, you bus them. Otherwise you dont stop their yeet and look bad at the same time.

People do other things but you need a reason to believe it wins and I don't see that from Lightfoot's play.

The moves to Mahaloth on d3 didn't include Lightfoot, there was no reason to believe they would, since Mord voted for Lightfoot near end of round, and Lightfoot had Mahaloth in the non scum column, and Lightfoot is not known for last minute vote shenans.

If she is guilty, then she was on a team with Kai and Kai didn't learn or respect her pronouns, which baffles me. It might not be fair in the slightest but I'm almost inclined to clear her based off of that, barring evidence against.

Kai is very pronoun conscious.

[Askthepizzaguy]

With most players, I'd consider "well, you behaved like yourself and otherwise havent made a big impact during Day" as null.

For Lightfoot, she has a particular Lightfoot-only brainwave that reads identically every game she is town. It's uncanny.

I'm inclined to trust that, combined with the other specifics I just mentioned.

[Askthepizzaguy]

There's a train shaped like a perple toolbox, and it only has one speed. But it has a very reliable service record.

[LightFoot]

It appears to be an uncontested vote.
All the nongovernmental are on my suspension list. Food for thought

[Askthepizzaguy]

Originally Posted by LightFoot

It appears to be an uncontested vote.
All the nongovernmental are on my suspension list. Food for thought

Originally Posted by Vote Counting Robot

Mordenkainen (4): guiri (5), LightFoot (6), Meeko (9), Askthepizzaguy (60)

If you want, you can paste this as well: Voting History: post #5: guiri voted Mordenkainen post #6: LightFoot voted Mordenkainen post #9: Meeko voted Mordenkainen post #60: Askthepizzaguy voted Mordenkainen

My guess is the bolded is an autocorrect for "nonvoters".

You have Tex, Colby, Mord, and BC as your suspects. If that's incorrect let me know.

[LightFoot]

Autocorrect bite me
Noncommittal

[LightFoot]

You are correct. Obviously not in that order

[guiri]

Mordenkainen hasn't posted all Day. YesterDay he seemed to accept his fate and wanted to stop being a distraction, no fight left in him. I just remembered he's MHaye, which explains the long absences and late appearances. If he's town, he's leaving us with zero insights as to his reads.

Surprised Bashorian has not voted yet, or TexCat. Bashorian voted Mordenkainen yesterDay, immediately moved over to Mahaloth, saw there was zero traction (at that time), and switched back to Mordenkainen after his VT claim, making it 4-1. The votes on Mahaloth only came in the last 15 minutes of the Day.

[LightFoot]

As I said earlier I voted yesterday to see what an alt wagon would do. And it did something for us to look at.
Not my alt wagon but guiri 's was chosen to the same effect

[LightFoot]

I do expect shenanigans this Day

[guiri]

Now you've gone and jinxed it...

[Mordenkainen]

I apologise.

The heatwave that struck at the weekend means that I'm either fast asleep or sitting in a west-facing room with a blowtorch the sun baking my room to the point where I can't think.

From this perspective, I should have let Maha survive Yesterday. Let me at least try and read something before I go.

[Mordenkainen]

One thought occurred.

If guiri had not switched his vote when he did, it would not have been possible for my vote to force a tie. I'd have let myself be lynched so you would know my alignment when examining my game actions.

@guiri have you explained this? My apologies if I missed it.

[guiri]

Yes, in #37, I was happy to yeet either of you and wanted to do a reaction test in case anyone else moved.

[Mordenkainen]

Originally Posted by guiri

Yes, in #37, I was happy to yeet either of you and wanted to do a reaction test in case anyone else moved.

Thanks. I can understand that.

I'm on record as saying self-preservation is a null tell (even in the vt / vt case). Remember that when interpreting my vote in the light of my alignment.

[guiri]

I don’t think anyone is holding your self-pres vote against you.

Who do you think is scum?

[Mordenkainen]

Originally Posted by guiri

I don’t think anyone is holding your self-pres vote against you.

Who do you think is scum?

That's the question I am now trying to think about.

If I have it right, there are 3³/₄ hours to go. I'll go at it with short breaks until ... 9:30 or so, posting as I go.

[guiri]

@TexCat Day is ending shortly.

[guiri]

Originally Posted by guiri

Will we be informed if/when it’s mylo?

In case the mod missed this...

[Eristic Widgeon]

Originally Posted by guiri

In case the mod missed this...

Nope. Closed setup. Embrace the uncertainty!

[Mordenkainen]

I realised I'd lost track of the gamestate.

There are currently 8 living players. With 14 to start there were probably three Mafiate, meaning there are two left now.

I still suspect a third party, because I don't find a 10 - 3 - 1 game unreasonable, whether the 3P is benign or hostile. But then, I may be unreasonably paranoid re hostile 3Ps, as if they are active too long, they can hand the game to the Mafia (which I don't want because I'm Town.)

I got a very neutral impression of Silverjan. ATPB is one of those people who's posts I find hard to decipher so mark me as "confused" here. I did note he omitted trying to read Meeko, but I never seem to find any of his [Meeko's] nuggets either.

I've seen ATPG make a simplifying assumption before (Yeetmas 3 - at least I think it was 3) and ATPG was Town then, so he might well be Town here. On the other hand SJ I read as detached, so might be a 3P candidate.

guiri I feel is town; the one qualm is that back in BYOM last year, I got completely fooled by the Mafia - trusting both guiri and Professor Pepperwinkle with my alignment, so I know he can fool me.

In summary:

Town : guiri
Town shading 3P: SJ => ATPG

Back soon.

[LightFoot]

Originally Posted by guiri

Now you've gone and jinxed it...

With the number of non voters it's inevitable

[LightFoot]

Mordenkainen
Are you saying you didn't have any leans prior?

[Mordenkainen]

Originally Posted by LightFoot

Mordenkainen
Are you saying you didn't have any leans prior?

I didn't have very many. I'm rereading and reexamining as I go. I just feel it would be best for town to accept mizzling me unless someone confesses. I really think you've got one day once you see my flip.

Still have about 2 hours.

[Mordenkainen]

Oh Lightfoot, 11,111 is a fun post count.

[Mordenkainen]

Going through D2 again. My eye was struck by post D02.133 from Meeko.

Now, I have as many problems reading Meeko's posts as I do ATPG's. My mind all-to-often goes blank when he wanders from the game, and I often miss his in-game content. But I did not like this post. He appears to be trying to squash discussion on players other than Kaiveran. Experience has shown that unanimous-kill Days are often long-term unproductive, and certainly stifling discussion in the early Days is counterproductive.

In summary:

Town : guiri

Town shading 3P: SJ => ATPG

Shading Mafiate: Meeko

[guiri]

Mordenkainen, if you're actually town, please show it. With the current vote count, half the players are not even voting, it's likely scum are sitting back laughing. SilverJan and Kai had that big bust-up in thread about pronouns which led to her abandoning the game, do you think that was staged? Meeko & Kai were furry-snuggle-BFFs for like a whole Day and then Meeko came down hard on Kai after the breadcrumb, and double-downed on him. They may have changed but Meeko used to hate hate hate bussing, I'd be surprised to see him do it this way.

Now, on Pizza you have a point, he might have an agenda. I only barely eased off on TexCat D1 for coming in at EoD and sharing some reads, not attacking her voters or in anti-spew mode, but I did not town-read her, and have had her solidly in my scum column all game, so not sure where he got that from.

[TexCat]

I'm not sure I've gotten anywhere in this game, except that I know now I was wrong about Mahaloth. I have still not embraced the Mordenkainen scum theory. I still think his vote on Kai was sincere. I still have Meeko and Guiri in the firm non-scum category. That leaves me with BC, SJ/Pizza, Colby, and Lightfoot. I'm leaning town on Colby. Guiri seems to think that LF is too scummy to be scum, and he might have a point.

[Mordenkainen]

Originally Posted by guiri

SilverJan and Kai had that big bust-up in thread about pronouns which led to her abandoning the game, do you think that was staged.

No. It never once crossed my mind that they were staging that argument. If it were, I doubt whether SJ would have left, because she'd have known that Kai wasn't taking it personally. Also, she seemed really down in D3.

I read that as real, and the two were not both Mafiate. They could have both been town, but that turned out not to be the case.

Meeko & Kai were furry-snuggle-BFFs for like a whole Day and then Meeko came down hard on Kai after the breadcrumb, and double-downed on him. They may have changed but Meeko used to hate hate hate bussing, I'd be surprised to see him do it this way.

That bit of info would persuade me to read Meeko more likely Mafiate.

Now, on Pizza you have a point, he might have an agenda. I only barely eased off on TexCat D1 for coming in at EoD and sharing some reads, not attacking her voters or in anti-spew mode, but I did not town-read her, and have had her solidly in my scum column all game, so not sure where he got that from.

I've just neem rereading Texcat. I'm still OK with my D1 vote, and I've been concentrating on D2. Her basic thesis was that she thought Vanta hid behind Kai because Vanta had Town reads on them. and their strategy would be to hide behind a Townie unlikely to be a Nightkill target; post D02.123 for example. Then when voting she said she liked the wagon on Kai.

Her other posts didn't affect my opinion much, but I'm still overheated.


In summary:

Town : guiri

Town shading 3P: SJ => ATPG

Shading Mafiate: Meeko, Texcat.

It makes no difference which of them I vote for Today. Hence

[Mordenkainen]

I've just gone through Colby11's posts. I only got one piece of Mafia shading; in D3 he analysed the last few hours of D1 for vote context. He promised to come back and do D2 but never did. I've seen players do this sort of thing as Town and Mafia, so it's only a weak reed, not a firm indicator.

Originally Posted by Mordenkainen

In summary:

Town : guiri,

Likely Town: Colby11

Town shading 3P: SJ => ATPG

Shading Mafiate: Meeko, Texcat.

It makes no difference which of them I vote for Today. Hence

[Mordenkainen]

NETA: I don't have much feel either way on BC or Lightfoot. I'll try and get something on them before Nightfall..

[guiri]

Come on, do something scummy please, make me feel better about this vote!

[Mordenkainen]

Originally Posted by guiri

Come on, do something scummy please, make me feel better about this vote!

Sorry, I'm Town.

As a Mafiate I'd have kept quiet so as not to implicate teammate(s). I've even been known to confess with my farewell post, misreading the time of Dusk as I did so in one case.

[guiri]

Lightfoot, your thoughts?

[guiri]

Meeko, Colby too.

[Colby11]

Originally Posted by Mordenkainen

I've just gone through Colby11's posts. I only got one piece of Mafia shading; in D3 he analysed the last few hours of D1 for vote context. He promised to come back and do D2 but never did. I've seen players do this sort of thing as Town and Mafia, so it's only a weak reed, not a firm indicator.

Honestly I forgot about that.

Meant to post yesterday but it was my day off with the kids… story coming after the game ends for me….

I am non committal towards Mort being scum because even though I voted for him yesterDay, the overwhelming bandwagon without a competiting bandwagon gives me pause… but I don’t want any shenanigans

[Colby11]

Originally Posted by guiri

Meeko, Colby too.

I’ll post my thoughts this evening. Sorry, got a lot going on atm