Cheap Beer Mafia -- Day Two

[LightFoot]

Not sure how we are going to get anywhere with only 3 of us playing

[Vanta Black]

This is kind of frustrating for sure.

[Mahaloth]

Whoa, don't hammer me, baby!

As claimed on Day 1, I'm just boring old Vanilla Town, which means I have no special insight or information to contribute.

I felt Pleo was scum, but that was pure vibe and obviously wrong. I have no feeling on Vanta or Plum.

[guiri]

Originally Posted by Mahaloth

Whoa, don't hammer me, baby!

As claimed on Day 1, I'm just boring old Vanilla Town, which means I have no special insight or information to contribute.

I felt Pleo was scum, but that was pure vibe and obviously wrong. I have no feeling on Vanta or Plum.

I invite you to review Vanta Black, and see if you can see what Pleo, Sea Serpent and I see there, or convince me he’s not scum.
- he was pinged by Pleo’s being disingenuous and joke vote, and your vanilla claim, but did not follow up with a vote until much much later on Sea Serpent - smudge/feeling the waters
- focus on strategy over solving
- using others as reasoning to suspect you for your claim - as called out by Sea Serpent
- the implied non-vanilla claim as Pleo pointed out
- hedging statements
- accusing Sea Serprent of policy voting when their own suspicion on you was a policy vote (without the actual vote)
- using “but I didn’t vote” as a wiggle out for the smudge
- added reasoning in a self-defense vote - overly self-conscious

And that was just D1. ToDay has been primarily defending themself or discussing cop cover, no vote, no case.

[Sea Serpent]

Originally Posted by LightFoot

Not sure how we are going to get anywhere with only 3 of us playing

We end up going where the players who are playing take us. I have my vote. I have my reason. I'd have Kaiveran as my top Town pick.

First round of bridge in Gatlinburg tonight did not go well, but the 7 mile hike today in the GSNP was beyond awesome. No bears but a posing wild turkey and a bunch of blooming trillium on the Husky Gap trail and nearby Mount Pisgah.

[Kaiveran]

Originally Posted by guiri

For the cop cover, I think I get most of it too, but not 100%.

- everyone claims their top town read with reasoning 24 hours before EoD
- the cop’s result(s) will be known if the cop is killed
- the top town read of a player who is killed and is not revealed to be the cop will be “seer hunt cleared” as scum would only have attempted to kill someone with an accurate result
- players should try to stick with their town reads otherwise scum will know that the top town read was faked and will look elsewhere for the cop
- players whose top town reads are actually scum will reduce the pool of players for the scum to hunt the cop in

As long as all living players actually have a top town read they strongly believe in, and all participate, this could work fine. I don’t see the risk in multiple players having the same top town lead. Where it gets murky is if the cop does not have a town result, they just go for a 1 for 1 trade, risking a counter-claim?

@guiri
Yeah, really the only time multiple players having the same top-town/fake-peek is a problem is if they're all doing it on a wolf. And that is an incredibly rare occurrence AFAIK.

The guilty peek section of the strategy is another thing that I've attempted to tailor to this specific game – if it were a bigger game with more time to spare, I'd be more supportive of a Cop deciding to hoard a wolf peek for effect. The thing to remember here is that toDay is not ELo, and thus even if a claiming Cop gets counterclaimed and axed, the wolf that did it still doomed the next Day, and we have two whole Day phases to discuss and figure out who their partner is. In my estimation that's a much better position for town to be in than possibly arriving at a 5-player ELo never knowing the result for sure.

Of course, one's mileage may vary; this is colored by my own personal beliefs. I'd cite the experiences that forged them, but most of it has been flushed down the Internet's toilet, so

Originally Posted by LightFoot

Hammer prevention
also to in theory generate discussion.

I am working on making time for more research.

The hammer creates a situation where Scum can coast to an easy mizzle

-if that makes sense

Originally Posted by guiri

Makes sense, but since I think Vanta’s scum, I’m not too concerned about scum quick-hammering them.

You see, I can understand Lightfoot's concern here, but I don't think scum would even quickhammer a town!Vanta. Too much to lose, and whyfoaming over EoD controversy only carries you so far.

Originally Posted by LightFoot

I have reviewed Mendie's posts in an effort to 'see' why she was the NK.

my knee says misdirection - she showed some attention to Plumpudding (which is on my possible Scum list)


there was the Night comment

But would Scum do that

I welcome all other observations

I did give my thoughts on this the Night that it happened, I suspected it could have pointed to you and Mahaloth, and Mendie's death made me even more interested in that potential pairing. But honestly, reading through this Day and seeing you step up to the plate so naturally has given me plenty of reasonable doubt.

Originally Posted by guiri

My guess is they suspected she was the seer.
It’s somewhat unusual for Mendie to be NK’d but Vanta’s recommendation that Mendie be investigated and Mendie’s reaction may have set off some alarms.

I mean this is reasonable enough take from the posts cited. But I don't think it gives us any leads.

Originally Posted by Mahaloth

Whoa, don't hammer me, baby!

As claimed on Day 1, I'm just boring old Vanilla Town, which means I have no special insight or information to contribute.

I felt Pleo was scum, but that was pure vibe and obviously wrong. I have no feeling on Vanta or Plum.

Cool, how about everyone else?

Originally Posted by Sea Serpent

We end up going where the players who are playing take us. I have my vote. I have my reason. I'd have Kaiveran as my top Town pick.

First round of bridge in Gatlinburg tonight did not go well, but the 7 mile hike today in the GSNP was beyond awesome. No bears but a posing wild turkey and a bunch of blooming trillium on the Husky Gap trail and nearby Mount Pisgah.

Well thanks for the vote of confidence, at least.

I'm not a big card-player by any means, but I've looked the place up and it looks and sounds like a wonder to behold. Glad you're having fun!

[guiri]

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

Yeah, really the only time multiple players having the same top-town/fake-peek is a problem is if they're all doing it on a wolf. And that is an incredibly rare occurrence AFAIK.

Ah, yes, that would be quite revealing.

[Kaiveran]

Originally Posted by LightFoot

Not sure how we are going to get anywhere with only 3 of us playing

Well, hopefully I'll be making 4 now. A majority's gotta count for somethin' right?

[LightFoot]

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

Well, hopefully I'll be making 4 now. A majority's gotta count for somethin' right?

My eyeballs are about to fall out of my head- I will be here later.
I am not sure I am comfortable with the early agreement of guiri and Sea Serpent

I appreciate a new set of eyes
pun intended

[guiri]

Originally Posted by LightFoot

My eyeballs are about to fall out of my head- I will be here later.
I am not sure I am comfortable with the early agreement of guiri and Sea Serpent

I appreciate a new set of eyes
pun intended

Early agreement, like continuing our suspicion from Day 1 of the counterwagon to a known Town? I’d be more uncomfortable if suspicions were dropped entirely.

Originally Posted by Vote Counting Robot

Day 1
Vanta Black (3): guiri (65), Pleonast (111), Sea Serpent (151)

Originally Posted by Vote Counting Robot

Day 2
Vanta Black (2): guiri (6), Sea Serpent (7)

[Plumpudding]

OOG: Been a bit distracted last few days, bsy Sunday and early shift yesterday without any sleep. Barely managed dinner yesterday. At work now, short break.

My suspicion of Maha has not lessened since yesterDay. Third on a wagon, no case, lazy vote. Im still not convinced on the Vanta case, same reasons as yesterDay, being the other wagon could go both ways, pleo voting vanta could be town on town,
so null tell for me atm. I'll do a reread before eod, when i get off my phone.

Lightfoot: my votes were all over the place, yeah, some of them were jokes. I feel youre tunneling, im not sure how i'm gonna read that right now. I'll think about it.

Cop cover: I usually get lost in discussion of mechanics. Unless its crucial for the setup it feels kinda meaningless to me. Ymmv. Everyone is supposed to give a town peek around 24 hours pre eod?

[Kaiveran]

Originally Posted by Plumpudding

OOG: Been a bit distracted last few days, bsy Sunday and early shift yesterday without any sleep. Barely managed dinner yesterday. At work now, short break.

My suspicion of Maha has not lessened since yesterDay. Third on a wagon, no case, lazy vote. Im still not convinced on the Vanta case, same reasons as yesterDay, being the other wagon could go both ways, pleo voting vanta could be town on town,
so null tell for me atm. I'll do a reread before eod, when i get off my phone.

Lightfoot: my votes were all over the place, yeah, some of them were jokes. I feel youre tunneling, im not sure how i'm gonna read that right now. I'll think about it.

Cop cover: I usually get lost in discussion of mechanics. Unless its crucial for the setup it feels kinda meaningless to me. Ymmv. Everyone is supposed to give a town peek around 24 hours pre eod?

THat's the plan, yes.

—

I am pooped, but my next effort will probably be to look for potential pairings/unpairings in earnest. Wanna start with plum/Maha/SS/Vanta as those are who I feel needs to be sorted most toDay.

[LightFoot]

Originally Posted by guiri

Early agreement, like continuing our suspicion from Day 1 of the counterwagon to a known Town? I’d be more uncomfortable if suspicions were dropped entirely.

~
I was more looking at the back to back vote posts. It's a timing thing

[Vanta Black]

Fluffy beer fact: I once was on a tasting focus group for Coors. This was long ago, the company was coming out with new products. First there was a screening questionnaire (how much beer do you drink, what kind, how often--they were trying to eliminate problem drinkers I think, I don't remember the specific questions but there were a lot of them). Then we got ushered into a room where we all sat down in front of a bunch of glasses. We got one glass filled and then filled out another questionnaire evaluating taste (way too sweet, somewhat too sweet, just right, not sweet enough; way too bitter...etc.). Some guy asked specific questions, which I don't remember, and asked what notes we detected, like we were drinking fine wine. We had water, saltine crackers to cleanse our palates, and discreet pails in case we wanted to spit instead of swallow. After cleansing our palates we got another sample and more questions.

Each sample was a full glass of beer but I don't think anybody drank more than about an inch of each one. We tested three, then all voted on which one was our favorite (the third one, for most of us), then we got envelopes with actual money in them! Even the people who flunked the questionnaire got something. We headed out and the next group, who probably got the drinks in a different order, went in. They never told us what we were drinking.

But! I got paid money to drink beer!

Could have done this again but I had an old beater and didn't want to drive to Golden, even though it's not very far. Especially with beer on my breath on the way home.

[guiri]

Originally Posted by LightFoot

~
I was more looking at the back to back vote posts. It's a timing thing

I can’t speak for Sea Serpent, but for me Vanta is the smart choice toDay, with Mahaloth a likely partner.