NEXTDOOR MAFIA Day 4—SUMMER

[TexCat]

Who is in Raven's neighborhood? Is it possible that the bees detected intruders, that Raven was the neighborhood watch?

[TexCat]

I have town reads on Dizzy, Lightfoot, Mahaloth, Mendie, Bashorian (in that order mostly).
That leaves Kai and Plumpudding. I think Kai is the better execution today, but would switch to Plum.

[Bashorian Clement]

I'm fine with my neighbors disclosing who is in our neighborhood.

[LightFoot]

Originally Posted by TexCat

Who is in Raven's neighborhood? Is it possible that the bees detected intruders, that Raven was the neighborhood watch?

All raven divulged was that their PR was seasonal .

[Mendie Taoma]

Kaiveran has attested that ey are town and not scum in this game, in our Shady Acres chat.

That said said, i cannot vouch for that.

I am not against a Kai vote.

[LightFoot]

It appears the votes on Kaiveran are mostly POE
Does anyone have additional/ supporting information as well?

[Dizzymrslizzy]

Originally Posted by LightFoot

It appears the votes on Kaiveran are mostly POE
Does anyone have additional/ supporting information as well?

From my POV

As close to confirmed Town as possible:
LightFoot
Bashorian
Me

Probably Town
Mendie
Mahaloth

Left: (I investigated one of these last night)
Kai
TexCat
Plum

[LightFoot]

My list matches yours - although I am not sure where to put BC.

[Bashorian Clement]

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

Basically my issue here is, if I take the result on LF and the Mendie claim at face value, FMPOV that means we've narrowed it down to BC, Plumpudding, and TexCat exactly. If Dizzy is right about BC on top of that, then we literally just nuke both Plumpudding and TexCat for victory, ggez.

And I am having a very hard time believing in that world.

Why

why

why take Mendie's claim at face value?

Especially when don't believe

that Plumpudding and TexCat are the team?

[Mendie Taoma]

Ok, but, why would Anon go for the breadcrumb / "No I in Anonymous" today, if we weren't supposed to .... extract from it?

[Kaiveran]

Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement

Why

why

why take Mendie's claim at face value?

Especially when don't believe

that Plumpudding and TexCat are the team?

Gee, that spin engine of yours sure took a while to rev up, huh?

The entire point of this post is that I'm not taking Mendie's claim at face value. Which should be incredibly obvious to anyone who actually reads the whole post (you know, clicking that blue arrow block thingy?).

If anyone is legitimately confused, the tl;dr for that post is that I'm quite skeptical that the game has been solved with the ease that it appears to have been solved, and thus I feel like we should investigate at least some ways we can be wrong, lest we follow a beautiful but wrong POE off a cliff. Let's not get too uncareful with our stabbin' sticks, if I may revisit a metaphor that previously landed me in hot water.

Mendie of course could be lying, and even if she's telling the truth, that doesn't make her town. Although reviewing neighborhood happenings, I'm pretty sure she would've busted a cap in my ass already, had she actual access to any cap-busting capabilities. So, 3P at worst.

Oh, and in case you were wondering, I do think you're pretty damn scummy, but I also think if your team is doc-hunting fresh off guiri getting axed, I don't think Dizzy is a very sensible action target. Therefore why I'm not voting for you right now.

So out of the remaining candidates (Maha, Plum, TexCat), sure, Maha has a fresh town-indicative result on him, but more importantly, both him and TexCat are pretty much being their usual terse, low volume selves. Plum, by contrast, is absolutely phoning it in here compared to his last game as town, I feel. So despite my doubts, that's where I feel most comfortable voting rn.

Still, I have no truly convincing indications that Plum and TexCat are the team at present, mostly because it's kinda hard to read into those two in the first place. To my knowledge neither of them have much interactions with each other or even the other players. I don't even think guiri interacted substantively with them either. In fact, I seem to recall the majority of the people he really talked to have either flipped town or are strongly indicated to be town by now (like Dizzy). Which is sort of the fucked-up point of a disconnected wolfing strategy. Lay back, don't get on each other's case either way unless it blends into what town is doing, and watch town eat themselves. And oftentimes, it works! – because it exploits our primal fear of pushing into the unknown. It denies you the information you need to make an actual informed decision (instead of just an educated guess), and exploits the inherent bias towards axing someone who's there and active and generating lots of information that develops as the game progresses – because there's simply more narratives of them being scum you can fit all that data into.

And sure, that's the strategy I suspect the wolves are using, to a great degree. But I'm reluctant to go "all in" on that theory when there could still yet be a "defending" or "bussing" facet of the strategy I haven't picked up on yet. You feel me?

[Kaiveran]

Originally Posted by Mendie Taoma

Ok, but, why would Anon go for the breadcrumb / "No I in Anonymous" today, if we weren't supposed to .... extract from it?

That's assuming it was Anon's choice, though

Vanta's wording in the OP seems open to the possibility it may not have been.

[Kaiveran]

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

So out of the remaining candidates (Maha, Plum, TexCat), sure, Maha has a fresh town-indicative result on him, but more importantly, both him and TexCat are pretty much being their usual terse, low volume selves. Plum, by contrast, is absolutely phoning it in here compared to his last game as town, I feel. So despite my doubts, that's where I feel most comfortable voting rn.

I feel like this part in particular is good reading for those who still suspect me and/or doubt my solving processes.

See also D3, where I went back over both guiri and dizzy to see who was the wolf.

Sure, one of them was much shorter and less explicit than the other due to time pressure, but both of them went into reasons for and against their scumminess (Prosecution/Defense). You'll also notice that claims/results are largely absent from the figuring there. I basically tried to solve as if the results/claims were meaningless, and focused entirely on the how instead of the what of their histories. In the end I decided that Dizzy's moves just made a bit more sense as town than guiri's.

In a game like this I think it's always pertinent to remember that we don't truly have all the answers and know all the mechanics until the game is over. With that in mind, I think we should all sip the occasional draught of STORMB.

[Kaiveran]

Mrowrf, I'm sure there's something important I forgot to address here, but I just had the worst Thursday in my ~3 year history at this workplace so I'm p.much outta gas at this point. Broke business records PLUS a bunch of shit broke and ran out so I had to stay 2 hours late cleaning and prepping.

Unless things remain such a clusterfuck that I get an emergency call-in tomorrow, I should have some time to fire up my digger again.

[Mahaloth]

Originally Posted by Mendie Taoma

Ok, but, why would Anon go for the breadcrumb / "No I in Anonymous" today, if we weren't supposed to .... extract from it?

Again, I have no idea. I'm not great at breadcrumb interpreting.

It was easier to understand "guiri is scum" and take a risk that it was accurate.

[Mendie Taoma]

OOG

So, I need to be clear with my words here, but the "chilling effect" is still there. At the end of my shift last night, I was told that the only other two co-workers, more or less in the same position / department as me were going to be sent "back down" in position, from where they came. Essentially a demotion, but it feels like a firing. They are still in the building, they are still getting paid. They are still working. Just, in my opinion, a more high stressed "job" within our location. At the same point in time, I survive by the skin of my teeth. We have to get a certain number of credit applications, and I had one last week. My first in weeks. Despite all of us needing to get 1 in 100 customers. [Customer tried to fill out an application, despite the fact that he already had our card. The decision obviously discovered this, and "denied" him the second card. Only after reminding him he already had our card, here is how to obtain a temporary card, etc. etc. etc. ] I got another one just last night, less than an hour before learning about the shake up. Even then, he needed a Spanish translator. And we only had an 18 year old kid, who barely knows what Credit even is, to "help". I still worry about this application. Finally. I am 40. I have a Bachelors in Marketing. I work as a full time [37.75 hours average] retail cashier. I've used my degree all of 3 months in my life, at an unpaid internship. I digress. I'm scared shitless to leave the job at the current time. Once we get past the abysmal pay, I have an 8 minute commute, get to wear street casual clothes, have weekends off. I get to leave work at my work, and don't have any one bother me "off hours". Oh, and I get to sneak a few posts into this game from time to time. I've never been less sure of what I am doing with my life, than now. This comes, as I've more or less secured a job, in a climate that many would kill for, in relative terms. This comes, as I've come out as being Non-binary / Demi-girl. This comes, as I am seriously looking at if I have Autism [ I'll spare you the details, but, I think this is a forgone conclusion that I do have it. And my ADHD and being Transgender ..... let's just say they are Usual Suspects around these parts. ] So I'm kinda just sitting in stupor today. Not sure if I need to move, can move, want to move, .... or frankly can hold down a "Real" job. [[No, but for real.]]

I'm kinda just left with a "hands off" approach to it all. That, things happen for reason, and more to the point, they have to happen, in that way, FOR that reason.


Other than all of that, Yeah, lets attempt to play some Mafia.

[Bashorian Clement]

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

Gee, that spin engine of yours sure took a while to rev up, huh?

The entire point of this post is that I'm not taking Mendie's claim at face value. Which should be incredibly obvious to anyone who actually reads the whole post (you know, clicking that blue arrow block thingy?).

If anyone is legitimately confused, the tl;dr for that post is that I'm quite skeptical that the game has been solved with the ease that it appears to have been solved, and thus I feel like we should investigate at least some ways we can be wrong, lest we follow a beautiful but wrong POE off a cliff. Let's not get too uncareful with our stabbin' sticks, if I may revisit a metaphor that previously landed me in hot water.

Mendie of course could be lying, and even if she's telling the truth, that doesn't make her town. Although reviewing neighborhood happenings, I'm pretty sure she would've busted a cap in my ass already, had she actual access to any cap-busting capabilities. So, 3P at worst.

Oh, and in case you were wondering, I do think you're pretty damn scummy, but I also think if your team is doc-hunting fresh off guiri getting axed, I don't think Dizzy is a very sensible action target. Therefore why I'm not voting for you right now.

So out of the remaining candidates (Maha, Plum, TexCat), sure, Maha has a fresh town-indicative result on him, but more importantly, both him and TexCat are pretty much being their usual terse, low volume selves. Plum, by contrast, is absolutely phoning it in here compared to his last game as town, I feel. So despite my doubts, that's where I feel most comfortable voting rn.

Still, I have no truly convincing indications that Plum and TexCat are the team at present, mostly because it's kinda hard to read into those two in the first place. To my knowledge neither of them have much interactions with each other or even the other players. I don't even think guiri interacted substantively with them either. In fact, I seem to recall the majority of the people he really talked to have either flipped town or are strongly indicated to be town by now (like Dizzy). Which is sort of the fucked-up point of a disconnected wolfing strategy. Lay back, don't get on each other's case either way unless it blends into what town is doing, and watch town eat themselves. And oftentimes, it works! – because it exploits our primal fear of pushing into the unknown. It denies you the information you need to make an actual informed decision (instead of just an educated guess), and exploits the inherent bias towards axing someone who's there and active and generating lots of information that develops as the game progresses – because there's simply more narratives of them being scum you can fit all that data into.

And sure, that's the strategy I suspect the wolves are using, to a great degree. But I'm reluctant to go "all in" on that theory when there could still yet be a "defending" or "bussing" facet of the strategy I haven't picked up on yet. You feel me?

I went back and read the post again. There's no blue arrow, so I don't know what you're on about there. Who is spinning what here?

And I'm reminded that you think it's "totally possible" that Mod flubbed the setup, which is something that happens once every, what, 100 plus games? It's an insinuation that is made by the desperate.

[Bashorian Clement]

Maybe it's something with me, but I can't make head or tails of how you got to where you did.

[Mendie Taoma]

I'll just add that I remain intrigued that this game was ever winnable for town, given how weak our powers are.

If that crosses into flubbed set up, I can't say.

[Vanta Black]

Originally Posted by "Vote Counting Robot" (edited)

Kaiveran (3): Dizzymrslizzy (46), TexCat (52), Bashorian Clement (67)
Plumpudding (2): LightFoot (28), Kaiveran (44)
Mendie Taoma (1): Mahaloth (12)

Not voting: Mendie Taoma, Plumpudding

With 8 alive, it takes 5 votes to evict.

[Bashorian Clement]

Just to be clear, if Dizzy changes her vote I will follow.

[LightFoot]

Originally Posted by Vanta Black

Not voting: Mendie Taoma, Plumpudding, raventhief

With 8 alive, it takes 5 votes to evict.

Last time I checked the dead can't vote? - is there something we don't know.

[Vanta Black]

Originally Posted by LightFoot

Last time I checked the dead can't vote? - is there something we don't know.

Well she's not voting...

Fixed. Thanks for noting this.

[Mendie Taoma]

Originally Posted by Vanta Black

Not voting: Mendie Taoma, Plumpudding

With 8 alive, it takes 5 votes to evict.

When is EoD?

[Kaiveran]

Originally Posted by Dizzymrslizzy

Wanna tell us what you’ve been up to Kai? It’s now Day 4. We’ve had 3 nights.

Pleo was town
Mendie’s lie buster sounds townish on the surface, and she just reads Townie to me today.

So what’s your story?

Okay, let’s not wait for this debacle to reach its logical conclusion.

I am the reporter (anon-poster) that receives Dizzy’s results. And on N3 I received word that plumpudding is scum.

My trail of breadcrumbs:

• D1#30, which unfortunately is no longer quotable, but if you zoom in really really big on your browser and sample the color of the words “report back” in your image software of choice (or a plugin akin to PixelZoomer), you’ll notice it’s not quite black. (#010101, to be specific.)
• You can, however, quote D4#42 currently, and see that the word “fruitful” has a lovely slight tinge of purple (#2d004d). This is a punny reference to the result on plum. Note that this occurs before Dizzy narrows down her possible targets in D4#57.

If there’s any doubt, I can also send a private anonymous message in lieu of a public one, so I can truly cross confirm with Dizzy.

So yes, let’s get the plum-wagon-train a-rollin’. But please, please, pleeeez, let’s also have some productive discourse on the side.

As for why a single letter was deleted from my message: I have no effing idea. I didn’t do that; some other force did.

[Dizzymrslizzy]

I can confirm that I asked for an investigation on Plum yesterday.

[unvote] Kai [\unvote]

[Dizzymrslizzy]

So this leaves us with some interesting stuff going on.


Questions:

@Kaiveran ;- I was going with Bears probable that there’s a scum in each hood theory.

Mendie’s claim seems too genuine to be faked Imo.

Guiri was all for protecting the quiet which is why I hit there last night.

@TexCat ; Not looking the best for you right now bud. A little info on what’s going on with you would be nice!

@Bashorian Clement ;was your powers one shot?

[LightFoot]

Birnam Woods Still has 3 living neighbours.

Lucky neighbourhood.

[LightFoot]

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

~
Okay, let’s not wait for this debacle to reach its logical conclusion.

I am the reporter (anon-poster) that receives Dizzy’s results. And on N3 I received word that plumpudding is scum.

My trail of breadcrumbs:

• D1#30, which unfortunately is no longer quotable, but if you zoom in really really big on your browser and sample the color of the words “report back” in your image software of choice (or a plugin akin to PixelZoomer), you’ll notice it’s not quite black. (#010101, to be specific.)

• it is quotable to me and I see what you did but I don't get the significance.

  You can, however, quote D4#42 currently, and see that the word “fruitful” has a lovely slight tinge of purple (#2d004d). This is a punny reference to the result on plum. Note that this occurs before Dizzy narrows down her possible targets in D4#57.

I see the insertion of color but not the colour

If there’s any doubt, I can also send a private anonymous message in lieu of a public one, so I can truly cross confirm with Dizzy.

So yes, let’s get the plum-wagon-train a-rollin’. But please, please, pleeeez, let’s also have some productive discourse on the side.

As for why a single letter was deleted from my message: I have no effing idea. I didn’t do that; some other force did.[/b]

Anyone care to claim responsibility for the 'edit' ?

[LightFoot]

I have BC as a light blue name, but I can't recall why.
Can someone point me to the Day he was semi approved?

[Dizzymrslizzy]

Originally Posted by LightFoot

I have BC as a light blue name, but I can't recall why.
Can someone point me to the Day he was semi approved?

Today, first couple of posts of the Day. BC visited me and we shook hands. If you trust me, then please trust my opinion on this for today. I’m 95% positive I can clear him.

[raventhief]

Originally Posted by LightFoot

Last time I checked the dead can't vote? - is there something we don't know.

what if i really want to vote?

No?

I have local sourced honey to offer...

Still no?

Fine. Grumblebuzz grumblebuzz

[Bashorian Clement]

Good. Easy.

[Bashorian Clement]

Originally Posted by Dizzymrslizzy

So this leaves us with some interesting stuff going on.


Questions:

@Kaiveran ;- I was going with Bears probable that there’s a scum in each hood theory.

Mendie’s claim seems too genuine to be faked Imo.

Guiri was all for protecting the quiet which is why I hit there last night.

@TexCat ; Not looking the best for you right now bud. A little info on what’s going on with you would be nice!

@Bashorian Clement ;was your powers one shot?

My powers have been and always will be.

[Mendie Taoma]

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

As for why a single letter was deleted from my message: I have no effing idea. I didn’t do that; some other force did.[/b]

Just caught this from Open of Day 4

"" First of all the community message board lights up, but there seems to be a slight problem. Did someone forget to pay the maintenance people? ""

[Vanta Black]

Fireworks, anyone?

Originally Posted by "Vote Counting Robot" (edited)

Plumpudding (4): LightFoot (28), Kaiveran (44), Dizzymrslizzy (76), Bashorian Clement (83)
Kaiveran (1): TexCat (52), Dizzymrslizzy (46)[76],Bashorian Clement (67)[83]
Mendie Taoma (1): Mahaloth (12)

Not voting: Mendie Taoma, Plumpudding

With 8 alive, it takes 5 votes to evict.

OOG the fireworks have started in Denver already, owing to some basketball team winning a game I think. My cats hate it. My dog doesn't appear to care. Possibly she is a Nuggets fan.

[Kaiveran]

[LightFoot]

Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement

My powers have been and always will be.

always will be- what?
One shot?
how many ya got?

[LightFoot]

Originally Posted by Dizzymrslizzy

Today, first couple of posts of the Day. BC visited me and we shook hands. If you trust me, then please trust my opinion on this for today. I’m 95% positive I can clear him.

My vote is already placed for toDay.

I can't trust anyone. Although I lean Town at some.

[LightFoot]

NETA "BC visited me and we shook hands."Nope that is not it. And what matters he admits to the visit. Has naught to do with what he was there for.

[LightFoot]

BC, someone semi cleared you. I wager you remember who/where.

[Kaiveran]

Originally Posted by Dizzymrslizzy

So this leaves us with some interesting stuff going on.


Questions:

@Kaiveran ;- (1) I was going with Bears probable that there’s a scum in each hood theory.

(2) Mendie’s claim seems too genuine to be faked Imo.

Guiri was all for protecting the quiet which is why I hit there last night.

@TexCat ; Not looking the best for you right now bud. A little info on what’s going on with you would be nice!

@Bashorian Clement ;was your powers one shot?

(1) I mean, we've seen no solid host-provided evidence that that's not the case so far. And my play has involved a fair bit of subterfuge, if only for the purposes of not letting the scum know they were caught until it was too late, so I understand why you latched onto me.

I think there's a max of 3 scum & 1 3P though, so one may still be technically scum-free. And if I'm a hostile party of any sort, I think it's pretty obvious why I wouldn't be assisting you in mercilessly stomping the scum to death, as I am.

Also, if my neighborhood (Shady Acres) is indeed all town, my money's on one of the other hoods (Circle Drive/Birnam Woods) being S-3-T, if ya get me. I thought about that being a viable combination way back at Day 1.

With all that in mind, I think it might be a good idea for @LightFoot to reveal neighborhoods, as she originally planned.

(2) My previous argument wassn't necessarily that Mendie's claim is fake. She absolutely could be claiming her true result, while not being town-aligned. The thing is she hasn't played overtly pro-scum or retaliated at me, and also Lie Detector is not really something you give to a wolf in general. Hence my shift to her being either town or 3P.

Basically the two plausible Shady Acres worlds from my perspective:
1) Every hood has one non-town, hence Mendie 3P.
2) One hood has Town/3P/Scum OR there are only two scum, hence Mendie town.

Also, @Dizzymrslizzy you have trailing spaces within your mention tags, which appears to be why they're not working.

@TexCatconsider this a half-phase head-start on convincing us why you're not scum with guiri/plum.

[Kaiveran]

Originally Posted by LightFoot

it is quotable to me and I see what you did but I don't get the significance. I see the insertion of color but not the colour

"report back" = reference to "reporting" results in thread.

purple "fruit(ful)" = the plum in plumpudding (also the post was replying to DIzzy specifically, hinting that)

and yes the color is supposed to be hard to detect, especially on the light background on the forums, because it publicly encodes information that I didn't actually want found until I pointed it out later.

that's what a breadcrumb is.

[Kaiveran]

Aside: there is a very limited "field" of possible claims, shall we say, that would get me off BC's case.

I think he has room to delay such a claim until the next Day phase, LF. But no longer.

[Kaiveran]

Originally Posted by Mendie Taoma

Just caught this from Open of Day 4

"" First of all the community message board lights up, but there seems to be a slight problem. Did someone forget to pay the maintenance people? ""

Now you're getting it. But that reminds me – I've missed a spot.

Originally Posted by Mendie Taoma

On the assumption that Pleonast was truthful, in that we all have powers, I will assume you to have one as well, Kai.


Kai, Is your power not underpowered as well?

I've had to go through a lot to obtain, and more importantly decipher results. The former to my lie detecting ability, the latter to the animal that lives in Shady Oaks with us. I'm real surprised you've never heard that cat, you must invest in really good earplugs or something.

I mean, without also being the recipient of Dizzy's peeks, simply flinging anonymous messages around would be of very limited utility, yes. I think the point of this setup is being smart about playing the hand you're dealt.

But what about the pink stuff? Are you saying here that you've never detected any activity on me? I'd believe that given that I was scapegoat-y for the first two cycles and my powers being passive/undirected, but now that my N3 message has been tampered with, that doesn't seem right at all. If so, I think we might have a Ninja/Stealth something in the mix.

[LightFoot]

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

"report back" = reference to "reporting" results in thread.

purple "fruit(ful)" = the plum in plumpudding (also the post was replying to DIzzy specifically, hinting that)

and yes the color is supposed to be hard to detect, especially on the light background on the forums, because it publicly encodes information that I didn't actually want found until I pointed it out later.

that's what a breadcrumb is.

I was confirming that it was 'visible' but not blatantly so.

If I wasn't clear

[LightFoot]

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

~
But what about the pink stuff? Are you saying here that you've never detected any activity on me? I'd believe that given that I was scapegoat-y for the first two cycles and my powers being passive/undirected, but now that my N3 message has been tampered with, that doesn't seem right at all. If so, I think we might have a Ninja/Stealth something in the mix.

That is what was sniggling me that I didn't put words to.

Are we being told that except for the N1 cacophony Shady Acres has gone unmolested? Or is almost drunk me no remembering?

[LightFoot]

Hell if I only played sober you would eliminate me for low participation.
I freely admit there are a few points that I made notations about and forgot why.

[LightFoot]

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

~
With all that in mind, I think it might be a good idea for @LightFoot to reveal neighborhoods, as she originally planned.

~

Everyone will know toNight. And many should already

Bashorian Clement	Birnam Woods
Dizzymrslizzy	Windandsea Way
Kaiveran	Shady Acres
LightFoot	Circle Drive
Mahaloth	Birnam Woods
Mendie Taoma	Shady Acres
Plumpudding	Circle Drive
TexCat	Birnam Woods

[LightFoot]

Now if plum flips Town*all bets are off on my top suspects

*I doubt it, but they have been AWOL everywhere and may have been pegged as an easy mizzle who would not return to present a defense.