Scooby-Doo Mafia: Day Two

[Pleonast]

Hmm, everyone has survived the Night. Let the fun continue!

Day Two will end on Wednesday 18 October at 1pm California time.

Vote count at
https://www.giraffeboards.com/showpo...57&postcount=3

[The Angel Satan]

Maybe XÆA-12SDAD didn't show up to kill any of us.

[Major Chip Hazard]

Ayyy

I was gonna sit on this a while, but given the general lack of movin' and shakin' here, and how it narrows things down, I will reveal my machinations here:

I am Astrid Vikingsson, a Busybody. Which, in Pleonast-speak, apparently means a 1-Shot Doc. I protected Annie last Night, and as you can see, she is not dead. So unless scum had the foresight to double-reverse-quadruple-cross me and aim at one of their own, this means that Annie is confirmed town.

The following names are the only ones we should be considering a vote on today:
@The Angel Satan;
@Skybreaker;
@XÆA-12SDAD;
@The Pumpkin Queen;

So y'all should speak up ASAP and demonstrate why you're not it. I won't have a lot of time to investigate today b/c of work, and honestly there's not that much to dig into, so toDay's content will be mostly DIY.

[Major Chip Hazard]

Originally Posted by The Angel Satan

Maybe XÆA-12SDAD didn't show up to kill any of us.

This only makes sense if you assume Elongated Muskrat is alone though, because any scum partner who was actually here would have sent in a kill in his stead. And that applies to basically everyone but him.

Sure, solo scum is not unheard of in a 7p game, but 2:5 with greater town power is much more common, and considering in that case that we might put ourselves in a coinflip situation on D3 if we miss, I'm not comfortable bettin' the farm on it. I'd rather we let Pleonast drop the mod-hammer on him if he continues to be AWOL.

[Annie Wilkes Miseried My Shin]

Originally Posted by Major Chip Hazard

Ayyy

I was gonna sit on this a while, but given the general lack of movin' and shakin' here, and how it narrows things down, I will reveal my machinations here:

I am Astrid Vikingsson, a Busybody. Which, in Pleonast-speak, apparently means a 1-Shot Doc. I protected Annie last Night, and as you can see, she is not dead. So unless scum had the foresight to double-reverse-quadruple-cross me and aim at one of their own, this means that Annie is confirmed town.

The following names are the only ones we should be considering a vote on today:
@The Angel Satan;
@Skybreaker;
@XÆA-12SDAD;
@The Pumpkin Queen;

So y'all should speak up ASAP and demonstrate why you're not it. I won't have a lot of time to investigate today b/c of work, and honestly there's not that much to dig into, so toDay's content will be mostly DIY.

I'm not sure if comment from me is required here, or not.

[Annie Wilkes Miseried My Shin]

Originally Posted by Major Chip Hazard

Sure, solo scum is not unheard of in a 7p game, but 2:5 with greater town power is much more common,

Snip.

I thought "with greater town power" was Spider-Man. We are playing Scooby-Doo.

Hey, lookit, they both have hyphens, so I mean, that's something, right?

[Skybreaker]

Originally Posted by The Angel Satan

[vote]Vote XÆA-12SDAD[vote]

Maybe XÆA-12SDAD didn't show up to kill any of us.

Then again, maybe that's what the scum want us to think.

[Skybreaker]

Originally Posted by Major Chip Hazard

Ayyy

I was gonna sit on this a while, but given the general lack of movin' and shakin' here, and how it narrows things down, I will reveal my machinations here:

I am Astrid Vikingsson, a Busybody. Which, in Pleonast-speak, apparently means a 1-Shot Doc. I protected Annie last Night, and as you can see, she is not dead. So unless scum had the foresight to double-reverse-quadruple-cross me and aim at one of their own, this means that Annie is confirmed town.

The following names are the only ones we should be considering a vote on today:
@The Angel Satan;
@Skybreaker;
@XÆA-12SDAD;
@The Pumpkin Queen;

So y'all should speak up ASAP and demonstrate why you're not it. I won't have a lot of time to investigate today b/c of work, and honestly there's not that much to dig into, so toDay's content will be mostly DIY.

There's a lot to unpack here, but I think most meaningful is your logic here that you "protected" Annie Wilkes Miseried My Shin, and they did not die, so therefore not scum. There are so many holes in that logic it's not even swiss cheese anymore.

Assuming you're scum (and I am assuming you're scum), this is actually a great play. Because it generates a LOT of WIFOM with regard to your motives and whether or not you were trying to protect Annie or put the dogs on them. And, in the context of your post, it separates out our merry little band into three distinct buckets - you, Annie and the rest of us. There's a name for this game. It's called Let's you and him fight.

I think your doc claim is a scum gambit to draw out the real Town Doctor, and in the same post you assert your suspicions and call us out to 'demonstrate why [we're] not it' which I interpret as a follow-up gambit to your pretty obvious role-hunting. I think the whole scum no kill last Night was a setup for you and this post.

In summary, your post is a 200 MegaTon Confusion Bomb. Total scum.

Layer on my suspicion of you yesterday, and I'm all in at this point.

[Skybreaker]

Originally Posted by Skybreaker

Then again, maybe that's what the scum want us to think.

FOS The Angel Satan so I don't forget.

[Annie Wilkes Miseried My Shin]

Should I Claim?

[Annie Wilkes Miseried My Shin]

I'm not sure to what part specifically, but the math flat out does not work as they are saying it should.

[Annie Wilkes Miseried My Shin]

Originally Posted by Major Chip Hazard

I am Astrid Vikingsson, a Busybody. Which, in Pleonast-speak, apparently means a 1-Shot Doc. I protected Annie last Night, and as you can see, she is not dead. So unless scum had the foresight to double-reverse-quadruple-cross me and aim at one of their own, this means that [B]Annie is confirmed town.

I really don't like this.

Chip Hazard, do you have a Scooby Snack?

Or wouldn't your actual role have told you about those?

[Annie Wilkes Miseried My Shin]

Originally Posted by Major Chip Hazard

I am [B]Astrid Vikingsson, a Busybody. Which, in Pleonast-speak, apparently means a 1-Shot Doc.

1. A Busybody.
2. Pleonast-speak.
3. Apparently.


At this point you are six Dodgers away from a Baseball team.

[Annie Wilkes Miseried My Shin]

Forgive me Town. I will only go so far here. Further if I need to, and I will take you to the depths of my thoughts here, at the end of it all.

I'm kinda compelled here.

Originally Posted by Major Chip Hazard

I am [B]Astrid Vikingsson, a Busybody. Which, in Pleonast-speak, apparently means a 1-Shot Doc.

I think I've found my bone in this game.

:: Knuckle Crack ::


Hi Astrid. I'm Kiki.

Nice to meet you. What was your family name again? Oh, Vikingsson.

I see.

How.... Uh.... Derivative, and totally fine for a 1970s cartoon is it? (I don't know you all, I'm legit asking, I wasn't around then. That great dane should have been on the rainbow bridge like four times by now. He's like 50.)

But I mean, that name would kinda be cancel-ish today, don't you think?

Oh, my family name?

Fujijudo. But I don't see how that's of any relav....

Jinkees!

That is kinda Cancelish too, isn't it?

Those names are similar. I'd go so far as to say Identical. ... except not.

What are the odds that, you know, we are both using cover roles right now?


What then, are the odds that I would be Hit and Protected, on the same night, after I also made a few breadcrumbs?


I mean, I think that number is the same.



Ah. But you said you were a Busybody. I see. [Do I need to bold this "" I see "" again Gang?]




A Busybody. THAT IS ALSO A DOCTOR.




Interesting. I mean, I'd think those would be contradictions in terms.

Or, you know, that a Doctor would get a real name. And not one that you know, that is like, stereotypical from a country that is not US. [

I mean, if your name was something like Dean, for example, you know I mean, I could just might get behind that. And if it wasn't Dean, it would be another name that I would recognize, and that you WOULD HAVE USED when you claimed to be a Doctor Busybody.




But, As it is, your "" Astrid "" is more like an Asterisk.

[XÆA-12SDAD]

Originally Posted by Major Chip Hazard

This only makes sense if you assume Elongated Muskrat is alone though, because any scum partner who was actually here would have sent in a kill in his stead. And that applies to basically everyone but him.

Sure, solo scum is not unheard of in a 7p game, but 2:5 with greater town power is much more common, and considering in that case that we might put ourselves in a coinflip situation on D3 if we miss, I'm not comfortable bettin' the farm on it. I'd rather we let Pleonast drop the mod-hammer on him if he continues to be AWOL.

On the subject of mass claims - not sure if such a thing would work (and I am not implying you are suggesting anything of the sort) with a closed set up where no one knows what possible powers are out there or even what names are aligned with town or scum. Generally, a mass claim can work at end game in a open set up where everyone knows what roles and powers are on the table, and some sort of system of confirming players can be worked up. With no knowledge of set up scum could lie about their powers and confirm themselves as town based on false rules.

I don't see any reason why you would claim, or anyone else for that matter. And conveniently you have stated your power is one-shot and you used it up last night. That makes you vanilla, correct? Not a threat to town? A very convenient place for scum to hide.

[Major Chip Hazard]

Originally Posted by Skybreaker

There's a lot to unpack here, but I think most meaningful is your logic here that you "protected" Annie Wilkes Miseried My Shin, and they did not die, so therefore not scum. There are so many holes in that logic it's not even swiss cheese anymore.

Assuming you're scum (and I am assuming you're scum), this is actually a great play. Because it generates a LOT of WIFOM with regard to your motives and whether or not you were trying to protect Annie or put the dogs on them. And, in the context of your post, it separates out our merry little band into three distinct buckets - you, Annie and the rest of us. There's a name for this game. It's called Let's you and him fight.

I think your doc claim is a scum gambit to draw out the real Town Doctor, and in the same post you assert your suspicions and call us out to 'demonstrate why [we're] not it' which I interpret as a follow-up gambit to your pretty obvious role-hunting. I think the whole scum no kill last Night was a setup for you and this post.

In summary, your post is a 200 MegaTon Confusion Bomb. Total scum.

Layer on my suspicion of you yesterday, and I'm all in at this point.

Well if that wasn't a hammer, Elon's vote certainly was.

Unless there's any other town power standing in the way of their victory, scum (who I assume are Skybreaker and Musky) wins.

Sorry for...phrasing things in a bullshittable manner I guess?

[Major Chip Hazard]

Originally Posted by Skybreaker

There's a lot to unpack here, but I think most meaningful is your logic here that you "protected" Annie Wilkes Miseried My Shin, and they did not die, so therefore not scum. There are so many holes in that logic it's not even swiss cheese anymore.

Assuming you're scum (and I am assuming you're scum), this is actually a great play. Because it generates a LOT of WIFOM with regard to your motives and whether or not you were trying to protect Annie or put the dogs on them. And, in the context of your post, it separates out our merry little band into three distinct buckets - you, Annie and the rest of us. There's a name for this game. It's called Let's you and him fight.

I think your doc claim is a scum gambit to draw out the real Town Doctor, and in the same post you assert your suspicions and call us out to 'demonstrate why [we're] not it' which I interpret as a follow-up gambit to your pretty obvious role-hunting. I think the whole scum no kill last Night was a setup for you and this post.

In summary, your post is a 200 MegaTon Confusion Bomb. Total scum.

Layer on my suspicion of you yesterday, and I'm all in at this point.

Originally Posted by Annie Wilkes Miseried My Shin

I really don't like this.

Chip Hazard, do you have a Scooby Snack?

Or wouldn't your actual role have told you about those?

My Scooby Snack just gave me an extra Doc shot.

Maybe I should have been upfront with that but I wanted to get fancy and hint that I had a BPV or PGO shot because of it, so that scum would be forced to kill in the suspect pool if they didn't call my bluff.

Won't do that again.

[Major Chip Hazard]

I'd have the "For The Honor" clip from The 5th Element proudly on display here, but that would imply I actually achieved something.

[Annie Wilkes Miseried My Shin]

Major Chip Hazard

Did you want to offer up the real name of your role?

[Major Chip Hazard]

Originally Posted by Annie Wilkes Miseried My Shin

Major Chip Hazard

Did you want to offer up the real name of your role?

That was the real name of my role.

I think the confusion came from me not respecting the structure of the Role PM in my claim. I had:
– a Name, which was Astrid Vikingsson
– a Role, which was Busybody
– a Side, which was Good Guy
– a Win Condition which was to "unmask" all the Bad Guys
– and Powers which were basically that of a 1-Shot Doc, one Night in the game I could protect someone from all kills.

This should look familiar. I think not detangling the Role vs Power is what killed me.

The only thing I even slightly dissimulated about was what the Scooby Snack did. I was gonna say "that's for scum to find out at their own peril" or some shit like that, implying grave consequences so that I could maybe survive to D3 and continue to put the pressure on.

[Major Chip Hazard]

Also, do I even need to state who my main is? I think it was fairly obvious once I dropped the act.

Now let me have a sad dinner

[Kaiveran]

Originally Posted by Major Chip Hazard

Also, do I even need to state who my main is? I think it was fairly obvious once I dropped the act.

Now let me have a sad dinner

This loss is at least partially Pleo's fault, by the way.

It should've been Astrid Vikingsdóttir.

[Annie Wilkes Miseried My Shin]

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

This loss is at least partially Pleo's fault, by the way.

How do you figure that?

[Annie Wilkes Miseried My Shin]

...

[Major Chip Hazard]

Originally Posted by Annie Wilkes Miseried My Shin

How do you figure that?

It was a joke about how Pleo didn't know how Icelandic/Norse names work. I've only ever seen Astrid as a feminine name, and thus the surname would be a –dóttir one if it was "correct". Then again it was probably meant to be old-timey and cartoony and all that.

I was gone away doing other things because I was fucked anyway, hoping Pleo would have come back and processed things by now.

Guess not.

[Major Chip Hazard]

...WAIT JUST A GODDAMN SECOND.

I'M A FOOL.

THERE'S 6 PLAYERS IN THE GAME RIGHT NOW AND ONLY 3 HAVE VOTED ME.

I HAVEN'T BEEN HAMMERED AT ALL. THE GAME IS STILL GOING

MEANING SKY AND X-MAN ARE OUTED

LESGOOOOOOOOO

[Major Chip Hazard]

@The Angel Satan;
@The Pumpkin Queen;

If you are reading this, DO NOT VOTE YET no matter how hard anyone is pressuring you to.

[Major Chip Hazard]

Alright, time to Counter-Strike! My responses in quoutes look like this.

Originally Posted by Skybreaker

There’s a lot to unpack here, but I think most meaningful is your logic here that you “protected” Annie Wilkes Miseried My Shin, and they did not die, so therefore not scum. There are so many holes in that logic it’s not even swiss cheese anymore.

So, is Skybreaker implying myriad ways that Annie can both be scum and be targeted for a kill here? In a 7-fucking-player game?! If so, they should explain even a small sampling of those possible worlds. To head off a couple:

– A Hostile 3P like a Serial Killer seems fundamentally bonkers to me, and is contra-indicated by the total lack of kills N1. Even the possible freak-accident of me targeting Annie the same Night both scum and the SK targeted her doesn't sell me on this, because the game starting at 1:1:5 could lead the the town losing majority on D2 (because mischop -> 1:1:4, both parties kill townies -> 1:1:2). That outcome is far more likely than a Doc making the best Doc pick in the history of ever, and relying on a successful protection (or even a doubled-up kill) to give Town a fighting chance is poor balance IMO.

– An OTK gambit would require a unbelievable amount of solid brass ball-bearings, not to mention plain dumb luck. A scumteam containing Annie would have to assume that there was both protective power in the game (above usual this game, but not a sure shot) AND that they would target Annie N1 (losing odds even if you consider only Annie, Sky, and myself for their activity - 33%). And if they’re wrong, Annie dies for no good reason and her partner has to survive two rounds of play – whereas if they simply play it straight and kill a townie, they go to a 2:3 ELo and only have to survive one. The risk-reward calculus doesn’t check out.

And alternatively, to believe there was simply no scum kill practically requires town!Sky to believe that either XÆA-12SDAD is solo scum – whomst, by the way, they defended as their first order of business toDay before even getting to my post (almost like they knew he was showing up!) so that possibility is out – or that Annie and I are the scum team exactly, which segues nicely into the next point:

Assuming you’re scum (and I am assuming you’re scum), this is actually a great play. Because it generates a LOT of WIFOM with regard to your motives and whether or not you were trying to protect Annie or put the dogs on them. And, in the context of your post, it separates out our merry little band into three distinct buckets - you, Annie and the rest of us. There’s a name for this game. It’s called Let’s you and him fight.

Here, Sky is attempting to squirm out of the above dichotomy by suggesting that Annie’s alignment is still possibly town from his POV. We might be able to debunk this claim very simply via the following:

@Pleonast, are scum even allowed to no-kill this game?

But even assuming that scum can no-kill, why the hell would scum!Chip even dream of doing a stupid thing like that?

If Annie’s my partner, why would I open D2 with a claim that both overtly and undeniably links us together, AND restricts the possible scumteams I can sell the town? By not claiming and just playing on the square, I have way more options. I can not only dissociate myself from Annie, and thus secure the win for my team even if one of us bites it, but then by leaving the field of candidates wide open, I can worldbuild any frigging team I want to, and seamlessly adapt to any changes and developments on the fly, rather than having to artificially shoehorn my fake scumreads into a limited subset of people.

Of course, the case for Annie not being my partner is that she’s an innocent townie I roped into a gambit. If scum!Chip successfully snuggles Annie with that claim, my team gets veto power over the elimination, and in the vast majority of cases wins outright. If I don’t and get bodied, a cloud of whyfoam hovers over Annie forever more, begging to be resolved in a future vote…

Except given the general pacing and tenor of the game, I wouldn’t need that claim to be able to build the bridges and gain the towncred necessary to drive down the winning vote on a townie. Most of my scum games on this very site should attest to that. And even if I get the mischop on Annie from beyond the grave, the town gets an extra mischop with my death, so they still have a chance to hit my partner, who’s now been compelled to give them two cycles’ worth of content instead of one. What’s more, this possibility changes nothing about the tactical concerns above: I would still be limiting my options for no good reason. And in this case, we have to wonder who exactly Skybreaker thinks my partner is, and why.

They don’t say. And in the face of that loose end hanging, their bravado doesn’t make sense for a townie at this particular juncture. There are no more mischops here, and thus no more room for error if one really wants to secure a town victory. A townie who laid out the possibilities like this wouldn’t just leave them on the table unexplored to bury a single scum candidate; a townie would be making at least a token effort to investigate them further, so their teammates were best equipped to win on D3.

But Skybreaker is not doing this, because this isn’t town!Sky looking for a scumteam outside of their body, this is about scum!Sky needing their scumteam to survive because they’re on the brink of victory.

I think your doc claim is a scum gambit to draw out the real Town Doctor, and in the same post you assert your suspicions and call us out to ‘demonstrate why [we’re] not it’ which I interpret as a follow-up gambit to your pretty obvious role-hunting. I think the whole scum no kill last Night was a setup for you and this post.

My “pretty obvious role-hunting”, they say, about a post that asked zero people to claim ever. Get real.

The operative request at the end of that post was to “speak up” – a clear reference to how there’s been a general dearth of activity so far, and how Annie and I would have had to see more from that pool of people to determine who was more likely to be scum. That post is only a call for claims if you believe that claims are the primary thing one looks for when determining guilt vs. innocence – and that cannot be reasonably asserted of anyone, least of all Sky and Musky Husky this phase.

Assuming that there’s some sort of Town Doc role here is reasonable; assuming that my post is a means of fishing for that role is making a nonsense mountain out of a molehill.

In summary, your post is a 200 MegaTon Confusion Bomb. Total scum.

The only Confusion Bomb here is the one you just tried to drop on me to win.

Almost worked, in fact, and I admire the ballsiness. But it ain’t over till one of us is in the dirt.

For those of you who weren’t there, this is kinda sorta similar to what happened in Nextdoor Mafia.

I had a weird claim then too, and even though there was harder evidence of my role actions that time, there was still no proof that they were town motivated, and thus suspicion on me built up.

IIRC, the hole in that plot was that people were credibly accusing me of doing stuff that could be considered scummy in a vacuum, but they weren’t examining how those actions, taken together, were a plausible path to a scum victory. The last of that suspicion died down when I explained that, for scum in my position, I would have a more expedient path to winning had I not done what I did. For those of you who were there, I hope you can see the same sort of disconnect happening here.

[Major Chip Hazard]

Originally Posted by XÆA-12SDAD

On the subject of mass claims - not sure if such a thing would work (and I am not implying you are suggesting anything of the sort) with a closed set up where no one knows what possible powers are out there or even what names are aligned with town or scum. Generally, a mass claim can work at end game in a open set up where everyone knows what roles and powers are on the table, and some sort of system of confirming players can be worked up. With no knowledge of set up scum could lie about their powers and confirm themselves as town based on false rules.

Not sure why X would mention mass claims here then, and go on for such length about them, if he didn't want to imply anything about me by it. Just seems like he's trying to lowkey back-up Sky's "role-fishing" angle on me.

I suppose the point is ultimately that, in a closed setup, there's no way to know for sure whether claims are legit, so you shouldn't let people you claim slide unchallenged into a position of control. And yes, that's a good shield, everyone, keep that shield up! But in that case, don't you try to solve me (and Annie, for that matter) independently of what the claim seems to say? I don't see evidence of that here. Looks like X just made up his mind about me in a jiff, with no questioning of the premises surrounding that read as I would expect from a townie just jumping in at this stage.

I don't see any reason why you would claim, or anyoneelse for that matter. And conveniently you have stated your power is one-shot and you used it up last night. That makes you vanilla, correct? Not a threat to town? A very convenient place for scum to hide.

Actually, thinking I have a cleared townie in a situation where we might lose with the next mischop is a perfectly good reason to claim here. What the hell are you talking about?

And if you pay attention to the posts I've made since this post (where I thought I was already dead), you will come to find that no, I'm not one-shot. The Scooby Snack gave me an extra Doc, which means I am very much still a threat to scum and can now fully expect to die tonight. Another reason I would not pull this as a scum gambit.

Y'know, I actually went back and checked! (And while I was looking, notice that Skybreaker's position on him has totally flipped from D1)

This is XÆA-12SDAD's first post of the game. And it does not at all read like a townie who hasn't been around for any of its events. This feels like someone who's mostly caught up already, possibly from a scum chat, and who was just waiting for their chance to spring into action.

If I'm fully being a fair juror, I suppose it possible that he judged the sequence of events proceeding toDay as not meaningful enough to invite comment, and through that lens he might just be a townie lead astray by Skybreaker's wall of words and/or his own side reasoning to such a case. Which makes him a less sure bet than Sky But the seeming coordination and confidence here, it doesn't make sense from a no-info townie perspective, and links him too strongly to Skybreaker to ignore.

While we're on the subject...

[Major Chip Hazard]

Originally Posted by Annie Wilkes Miseried My Shin

I'm not sure to what part specifically, but the math flat out does not work as they are saying it should.

@Annie Wilkes Miseried My Shin;

I think my earlier string of pity posts where I thought I was a goner probably clarified things somewhat.

If you ever do find out where you think my math is wrong, tell me about it and I will do my utmost to walk through it step by step until it's as clear as Swarovski crystal.

You may not believe in me yet, but I believe in you, and we can win this thing together.

[Major Chip Hazard]

@The Angel Satan;
@The Pumpkin Queen;

The ball is more in your court than it's ever been, lovelies.

The problem is, slapshotting it right into my jingle jollies is almost certainly a scum win.

We need your voices and perspectives in this game now more than ever.
I think I've solved this thing, but I might be wrong. And at this point you are the people most qualified (aside from Annie) to both find the cracks in all the reasoning presented here, and to contribute your own. Read this whole Day, all of it, and then let off both barrels on anyone you think deserves it. Even me.

[Annie Wilkes Miseried My Shin]

I know who are. .... Player wise.

Doesn't mean I'm not going to revote you.

But.

I have Questions.


I hate that I have to ask it. I hate that it takes this phrasing.

Chip.

... Why would you out me?

I _knew_ I was dead on D2.

How did you know it?

[The Angel Satan]

I've read and thought and I think I believe Major Chip Hazard.

I am the worst at determining when a Mass Claim is advantageous or disastrous for Town, but I am willing to fully claim if that is what the majority think is the right move.

I'm leaving my vote where it is. XÆA-12SDAD is the vibe I have and I think it is a reasonable choice.

I can be persuaded otherwise, but haven't yet.

[The Angel Satan]

If you all have figured out who is who in terms of giraffe board actual identities, I'm impressed. I have not a clue on anyone and haven't even deep read with that in mind.

[Major Chip Hazard]

Originally Posted by Annie Wilkes Miseried My Shin

I know who are. .... Player wise.

Doesn't mean I'm not going to revote you.

But.

I have Questions.


I hate that I have to ask it. I hate that it takes this phrasing.

Chip.

... Why would you out me?

I _knew_ I was dead on D2.

How did you know it?

Because after that disgraceful sleepwalk into hanging Kenough D1, I thought the town desperately needed some clarity and some voices that they could trust to be able to pull it out. To make the reasoning in my response to X explicit:

– Game most likely started as 2:5 (for many reasons stated before).
– Ken dies making for a 2:4 N1, carrying into D2 due to my save. That gives 33% bare odds to hit scum.
– If we don't hit scum, we go to 2:3, and if no other town powers interfere (and I'm not gonna bet the farm on there being many more in this size game) they kill a townie to reach parity at 2:2, scum win.
– If, by contrast, we go into D2 with two clears (you and I), that's 2 scum to find in a pool of 4 non-clears, raising the bare odds of hitting scum to 50%. And of course, we can further improve those odds by actually using our brains and talking things out within that pool.

So that was the whole calculus. And just as an aside, shouldn't a townie theoretically be excited about this whole development? Even though it puts them in the box, it also gives them the best chance to be a scum-slaying hero yet. Or, even if they're incredulous, as Sky claims to be, shouldn't they be giving more measured pushback, like you are? Maybe giving me an actual chance to address the potential counterpoints before they decide whether to trust me or not?

Skybreaker did not do any of that. They saw themself get boxed in and immediately declared me to be an enemy of all that is good and righteous and just, etc., throwing all the verbal artillery they could muster at me. That's not a response you have to an unknown quantity; that's a response you have to a known and salient threat.

Finally, choosing you to Doc was just a case of reading the room. You were one of the most active and reasonable voices D1, and the person who I thought might have gotten killed during the night, Kenough, ended up eating rope instead. So I deferred to you as my second choice.

[Major Chip Hazard]

Originally Posted by The Angel Satan

I've read and thought and I think I believe Major Chip Hazard.

I am the worst at determining when a Mass Claim is advantageous or disastrous for Town, but I am willing to fully claim if that is what the majority think is the right move.

I'm leaving my vote where it is. XÆA-12SDAD is the vibe I have and I think it is a reasonable choice.

I can be persuaded otherwise, but haven't yet.

I am generally opposed to a mass claim for the simple reason that there might be another useful town power out there, and if the wolves have the ability to counter it then we just made it useless. But considering that it's down to the wire one could argue. Right now Annie is the one I would trust most on this particular matter, but I would also like The Pumpkin Queen to weigh in.

I don't have time to fully restate this (work soon) but I advise you to read up on all my recent posts again so you can see where my head is at (and shoot me any questions for later). My general gut impression is that Skybreaker and XÆA-12SDAD have outed themselves as the team exactly, but my rational mind says that there's still the slight chance that X is a bamboozled townie that only paid attention to current events. Hence the preference for Sky.

Of course, I'm perfectly fine with y'all making this a wedge issue for a while. Any purported "town leader" needs dissent and checks and balances so they don't inadvertently march their comrades off a cliff.

tl;dr I would be okay with either of them going toDay, but once we reach consensus about which of them, we should stop squabbling and go all in. Don't wanna lose to a last-minute hammer or coinflip.

[Annie Wilkes Miseried My Shin]

Major Chip Hazard

Assume this game only has one scum. What would that one person scum team have to have "on board" to accommodate the balance therein?

[Major Chip Hazard]

Originally Posted by Annie Wilkes Miseried My Shin

Major Chip Hazard

Assume this game only has one scum. What would that one person scum team have to have "on board" to accommodate the balance therein?

That's a wild guess, because even if the game is low power to begin with, the distribution of Scooby Snacks might have amped it up a bit. And given the uncertainyly of that whole process I feel like giving solo scum a single role wouldn't be enough to turn the tide, because if a power they had no counter for popped up in the town and targeted right, then they;d instantly lose.

I feel like solo scum would pretty much have to be a JOAT of some sort; with different limited-shot abilities. How loaded that JOAT role was would of course depend on the potential power level at play but it's the only thing that gives solo scum the vaersitility they would need if they were potentially staring down a town with 5 Scooby Snacks.

Speaking of Scooby Snacks, I never made a spreadsheet for this game and thus the whole business of others getting them totally slipped my mind. I should probably get to doing something about that.

Not tonight though, I'm pretty wiped

[Annie Wilkes Miseried My Shin]

Originally Posted by Major Chip Hazard

I feel like solo scum would pretty much have to be a JOAT of some sort; with different limited-shot abilities. How loaded that JOAT role was would of course depend on the potential power level at play but it's the only thing that gives solo scum the vaersitility they would need if they were potentially staring down a town with 5 Scooby Snacks.

I think you are more or less in the right ballpark here.



I deleted using my name in strike-through. And I added the Foil and Rebo.



I could really, really use other opinions from Town on what I am sitting on.

[The Pumpkin Queen]

I'm curious as to how Annie knew she was dead.

Wait, was there a tunnel and a bright light at the end of it? Loved ones gathering around, saying IT IS NOT YET YOUR TIME?

Because that might be kinda cool.

[Annie Wilkes Miseried My Shin]

Originally Posted by The Pumpkin Queen

I'm curious as to how Annie knew she was dead.

Wait, was there a tunnel and a bright light at the end of it? Loved ones gathering around, saying IT IS NOT YET YOUR TIME?

Because that might be kinda cool.

Well, I mean, it seems to me that we are all trying to stay one step ahead of something in this game, and trying to run away from other things, you know?

I mean, I would kinda like to think that you do know. If you know that I know, that you know, you know?

[Skybreaker]

Originally Posted by Major Chip Hazard

Alright, time to Counter-Strike! My responses in quoutes look like this.

For those of you who weren’t there, this is kinda sorta similar to what happened in Nextdoor Mafia.

I had a weird claim then too, and even though there was harder evidence of my role actions that time, there was still no proof that they were town motivated, and thus suspicion on me built up.

IIRC, the hole in that plot was that people were credibly accusing me of doing stuff that could be considered scummy in a vacuum, but they weren’t examining how those actions, taken together, were a plausible path to a scum victory. The last of that suspicion died down when I explained that, for scum in my position, I would have a more expedient path to winning had I not done what I did. For those of you who were there, I hope you can see the same sort of disconnect happening here.

Meh.

Lots of words. I tried to read through it a couple times but it couldn't hold my interest. My vote stands. I think you're full of bologna, and I don't like being cussed at.

[The Angel Satan]

The more I think about it, it is possible to do a one scum setup in this game and while I don't know if it is likely, the no-kill makes me think it was at least somewhat a possibility.

I would think that a 1 scum setup would require an additional power and for the kill not to be one of the powers. I don't know what I would give as a second power, though. I have never setup a game this small, I don' think.

[Annie Wilkes Miseried My Shin]

Originally Posted by The Angel Satan

The more I think about it, it is possible to do a one scum setup in this game and while I don't know if it is likely, the no-kill makes me think it was at least somewhat a possibility.

I would think that a 1 scum setup would require an additional power and for the kill not to be one of the powers. I don't know what I would give as a second power, though. I have never setup a game this small, I don' think.

So, I misread my role.

I asked clarifying questions about my role.

I am lead to believe that this game only has one scum in it, based on those two things.

[Major Chip Hazard]

Originally Posted by Skybreaker

Meh.

Lots of words. I tried to read through it a couple times but it couldn't hold my interest. My vote stands. I think you're full of bologna, and I don't like being cussed at.

Okay, if Sky-scum still wins the game after having made this post, then maybe I'll start believing those old curmudgeons that say this game is dumb and entirely based on luck.

(Of course, having said this, most of them have "retired" umpteen times, and never really stop playing it entirely. At least it's a less costly outlet for their gambling addiction, I guess?)

[Major Chip Hazard]

Originally Posted by Annie Wilkes Miseried My Shin

So, I misread my role.

I asked clarifying questions about my role.

I am lead to believe that this game only has one scum in it, based on those two things.

So if we're truly living in Solo-Scum-World, who would you figure I'm barking up the wrong tree about and why? Skybreaker? [malfunctioning computer noises]? Both?

[Major Chip Hazard]

Originally Posted by Major Chip Hazard

Speaking of Scooby Snacks, I never made a spreadsheet for this game and thus the whole business of others getting them totally slipped my mind.

Originally Posted by The Pumpkin Queen

I'm curious as to how Annie knew she was dead.

Wait, was there a tunnel and a bright light at the end of it? Loved ones gathering around, saying IT IS NOT YET YOUR TIME?

Because that might be kinda cool.

@The Pumpkin Queen;
Now that I've got my head screwed on straight(er), I think the above posts and their implications might clarify things a bit.

Specifically, according to this post, the following people all received Scooby Snacks:
– Annie Wilkes Miseried My Shin
– The Pumpkin Queen (you)
– Major Chip Hazard (myself)
– Skybreaker
– The Angel Satan

And given that Scooby Snacks = 1-time bonuses of some sort, their distribution significantly affects who the wol(f/ves) are expected to target. Again, even if other people on this list started as vanilla, they're not vanilla anymore, so all other things being equal, if you're a wolf, any of these names outside of your team are higher-priority kill targets.

And of course, all things aren't and won't be equal. With Annie being both a major voice and a Snack-haver D1, from where I'm sitting it's easy to see her thinking she's a goner N1.

(As an aside, I suppose you could also give Skybreaker minor town points for pushing the Snack-less Kenough D1, but their behavior today has totally squandered those in my book.)

Also, based on the general lack of other definitive claims, I'm gonna guess that whatever powers the Scooby Snacks have granted have been either uninformative or unused. I think letting that ambiguity remain is pro-town, and further undergirds my position not to have any further claims today. No matter how many scum there are, they can't know who among us is the most productive kill toNight.

If there is a Day 3, that would be the time to massclaim. But no sooner.

[Annie Wilkes Miseried My Shin]

These opening lines have been added at the front a few minutes after I've finally typed the rest below. I have seen Chip's Three posts after mine.

Ultimately, it doesn't really change what I wrote.

OOG

I am going up to the Casino again tomorrow 17th and 18th.

I'm not sure I will have time later to do this.

Perhaps it is all luck. And even at that, mine has run out, at least for this game of Mafia. Given that I came out of the gate sideways here, I still think this is my best play. And I chalk it up to bad luck. It's a smaller game, and it has been dead.



----

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

This loss is at least partially Pleo's fault, by the way.

It should've been Astrid Vikingsdóttir.

Well, this is unfortunate, isn't it.


"" Chip "" , Do you know what Kaiveran [Funny, I didn't see eir name in the sign ups] is on about here? The entire part about the "Loss" being partially Pleo's fault? .... Was your Role PM a rush job, as much as mine was?

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----
----



Ok gang, wow, you guys are in for a treat here, because, as I was writing the above, my brain completely changed on all of the above. But, as I Was like 95% done with the post, I figured I could put both in here, in this same post, and you could see the method and madness that I live with.

I am thinking that Chip is the only Scum in this game. Let me add some new stuff here, and then I will go back and reemphasize some things I've said earlier.

---

Also, do I even need to state who my main is? I think it was fairly obvious once I dropped the act.


This seems incredibly self defeating. I don't think Town goes this far here. I don't think Town would feel _-completely-_ lost to the point to say all of this. After all, Town wins when _any_ townie wins, right? Certainly .....screw it. Kai knows better than this. Right?

Now let me have a sad dinner

Again, this feels more like a lost game, than simply a townie death.


This loss is at least partially Pleo's fault, by the way.

Do I need to say anything else here?

Well, yes, This was a point I hit upon above. Before my re-vote. And even when I unvoted, it still didn't sit right with me. I'll get back to that later. But, I think A one scum scum team blames Pleo [Or Any Mod] more often than their own play. Loss, not Death.

It should've been Astrid Vikingsdóttir

Are these more resigning comments? Now that it is over and done with, .... lets move on to a post mortem?

On a side note, wow, I was not aware that you had such a pointed preference here on gender, Kai.

---


And now back to some stuff I hit earlier.


First and foremost, when we lose this game, TOWN, and trust me, we've lost it, it will be because of how completely in-active the rest of you have been.

With that said.

I am Velma.

I am a Cop.

The cop ability is a one shot, and I have the scooby snack supplement, I can investigate twice.

My paranoia has been through the roof for this entire game, and I have said as much. I have used phrasing such as "I feel compelled here" and have asked multiple times if should claim, ... or I have dropped OBVIOUS breadcrumbs.


When i say that my paranoia is through the roof, I mean it.

The following will ensure my death.

However, I feel I am finally at a point where I must share it with the rest of town.

Kai, or, if not Kai, Scum in general already know what I am about to say, or at the very least, they know most of what I am going to say. Because of that, I am able to deduce what I am working with, and arrive at how I Think Kai is a lone scum in this game.



My patent has been approved. if the College Dean finds me, I will enroll and be out of the game.



When I first read this, I took it to mean that I had a "" Lovers "" role type, that I had an alternate win condition, and that I could ensure a Win if I found the dean.

My first post in the game was something to the effect of "We can trust Satan to a degree. As long as we don't get schooled."

But, the wording of "leave the game" remained ambiguous. To the point that I had to ask for clarification.

If the Dean finds me, It is a bonus kill, and my death. Not a Win, not a "" Lovers "" role, at all.


And it was the first damn thing I said in the game.

I went into N1 Knowing, KNOWING that I was dead, because the Dean obviously has instructions that mirror / opposite what I have been told. And I spilled all of it.

----

FINALLY.

1. I imagine that this game has one Scum. Kai / Chip.
2. They read my breadcrumb and figured out that I am Velma.
3. They chose to not night kill for N1


4. They are then free to set up being a Doctor, and claim protecting me.
4.1 Seriously, what are the odds. No, like, seriously. That A Doc would be that successful first night?
4.2 And then, to out me?
4.3 And "Forget" that they had a scooby snack extra?
4.4 And to use a cover name?
4.5 Well, this is my previous case, again, isn't it?

5. What do they lose? One Night? The first night?
6. And is it a loss of tempo, if I can go at any moment? Tonight, or any night, they can simply enroll me, and then make up for loss time.

7. IF -- THE -- College Dean finds you. One person.

8. I asked what extra would a One Scum member team have to have on board.

9. The answer was to be a JOAT. .... I posit that the Dean is a Joat, but not a traditional JOAT, not per se tricks in a bag, but rather limited powers, that can only go off if lined up correctly.

10. And we had Kai ....frankly, go uncharacteristically upset upon eir vote progression.


Town, I am not sure what else I can add to this game, given that I flubbed [and perhaps, bonus points for needing glasses, where are my glasses, as I read the role] out of the gate and have been extremely paranoid, beyond my normal levels of paranoia for the entire game.

I remind myself, after Pleo had to remind me, that my death in this game is not a loss of the game for town, or a loss, as far as my record goes, given that, as a member of town, I still win when and if town wins.

We survived last night without a death.

I was supposed to go last night. I could have gone last night. It frees me up to do this, and I feel I have to.

I have to believe that as I am still here, I have to share what I can, when I still can. That, this is the absolute best thing I can do for the game, given the state of the game as it currently is in.

I hate the activity level in this game.

I hate the fact that I shot myself in the foot from the get go.

I hate that, yes, I still doubt.

ETC.

Obviously, I strongly advise against anyone else claiming. If we still have a doctor, then, I will simply state that we are in a small game, and I am the cop. I'm not sure what the balance should be, even before the tweaks that apparently, have been made, as I have laid out above, .... but I'm not sure what other high value townies are out there, after me.


Again. I am Velma. If anyone wants to counter claim Velma, please go ahead. I'd love for you to.

I'm not sure if this is my best play. I feel it is my only play. I Was dead from my first post. Let's do the best we can from here on out.

[Annie Wilkes Miseried My Shin]

Originally Posted by Major Chip Hazard

If there is a Day 3, that would be the time to massclaim. But no sooner.

Why would there not be a Day 3?

[Major Chip Hazard]

Originally Posted by Annie Wilkes Miseried My Shin

Why would there not be a Day 3?

Because, as I've already gone into, Skybreaker is scum to the greatest degree of certainty I have in this game, and X is simply a moderately close second, which other people seem to prefer over them for some reason. If I'm wrong about X and there are in fact two scum, that's curtains.

It comes down to two facts:
– I have lots of information on Sky.
– I have next to none from X, who still has only one post in the friggin' game.

I am simply being a fair town juror, weighing the evidence and voting for the most likely scum from my perspective. Again, if you're actually interested in dialogue, you could point out for the class where either of those suspicions are faulty from your PV.

Before I get to the other bits, If this is your final answer, I hope to fuck you are right about there being one scum, because that's the only way you can still win. And in that case, you'd better re-evaluate with some damn VIGOR overNight because once I die and flip town, you are a confirmed Cop with no protection.