A Wizards True Name - Day 2

[Red Skeezix]

On the morning of Day 2, the gathered conjurers were exhausted, having spent most of the night trying to determine non-lethal ways of discovering the murderer. At about 4 am BillMc got up to perform his best reverse jesus impression (turning wine into water) and never returned. His name is now written in the great book of names.

BillMc AKA Ito Freehold, a Town Wizard has been slain.

With 16 players alive, the hammer for today is 10. Day will end at 7pm EDT on March 16th. PMs are going out now.

[BillMc]

Well there is an f'n surprise!

[Red Skeezix]

Results are out. If you were expecting one and didn't get one: Let me know!

[TexCat]

I got results! Scathach is town.

[Colby11]

No result on my end

[Dizzymrslizzy]

I got a "No Result" on my end.

[zuma]

I got no result on Mahaloth.

[Mahaloth]

No result for Mcginty.

[LightFoot]

Re: Zuma


compressed- because it is a bit of a wall

Originally Posted by zuma I'm somewhat against a mass name claim, although the only way I can imagine it hurting us is if some or all of scum have the same first and last names. I'm not ready to count anything out at this point though. The only advantage seems to be finding some sort of pattern (i.e. 7 pairs + 1 triple). If scum were forced to make up a first name then we'd see some singles out there. against name claim- although not sure it would hurt- finding a pattern= good I'd be more open to coordinating investigations to get the maximum number of results and no interference (aside from the 1 investigation scum would be able to block). Assuming 4 scum for the sake of argument, they'd know which 4 townies would be investigating them, but would only be able to block one of them. coordination of investigations=good Also, if we do decide on a name claim, I'd like to see the order determined by something other than one of us running it through random.org and presenting a list. I remember one game we used the score of an upcoming basketball game or something to determine the seed. Maybe there's a better way that I'm not aware of. But if we do a name claim- here is an idea Originally Posted by zuma This game is making my head hurt. I just thought of something. If we do coordinated investigations (and I think that is the right move, can anyone think of a reason not to do it?), then maybe a mass name claim could be the way to go?. Any matches should then investigate each other. Scum would then have to decide between making up a new name (thus being a "single"), or stealing one from town and inviting an investigation. Of course they'd probably just make up a name and pair themselves with another scum. But maybe that could be useful too if one of them flips scum. yep it might be a good idea- right guys? it just might work [/quote] Again, though, we'd still run the risk of scum having the same first and last names and finding out their first name after one of them gets lynched, then targeting townies with the same first name. I need to think about this some more, but wanted to throw out some possibilities.[/QUOTE] But maybe not Originally Posted by zuma Another thought: If there is some sort of pattern to first names (i.e. 7 pairs + a triple, or maybe 5 triples + a pair), scum might be able to eliminate some possibilities when it comes to determining who would be able to investigate them, or at least improve their odds. Imagine we do a name claim, (again for the sake of argument assume there are 13 town and 4 scum), and they see 5 Johns, 5 Marys, 2 Richards and 2 Tracys. If I'm scum I'm going after the Richards and Tracys. oh but maybe so Originally Posted by zuma ~snipped~ I'm still not sold on even a #of letters claim yet, but I propose we generate the random list today, whether or not we eventually use it, because if we do we'd probably need to start soon as the Day ends monday. ~snipped~ Originally Posted by zuma I'm of the opinion now that we should not do any sort of name claim. I don't see much of an advantage in doing it, and it can't realistically be done in an organized fashion. I do think it is vital that we try to organize the investigations though. It would be a shame if it turned into a clusterfuck where we were all blocking each others' investigations. Originally Posted by zuma I'm not going to be participating in name claims. I think it gives scum too much information, for too little reward on our side. I'll reiterate that I am investigating Mahaloth. I worry that we'll have many blocked investigations at this point. nope don't like the claiming at all now Originally Posted by zuma I'd rather use random.org as well, G. We have like 24 hours and this is like herding cats. I think it's imperative that we coordinate, so my announcing who I am investigating is the next best thing. At least by announcing that I am investigating mahaloth I should be able to prevent a 2nd investigation on him. I'd love a random.org thing and will participate if it can be organized. I'll also be announcing the results of my investigation at dawn.

back and forth about claiming
earlier didn t like random.org and above loves the idea
EOD tied for the lynch by the last hour vote of Chaos on charlie
as Bill noted

Originally Posted by BillMc

So you throw in a last minute vote to make a tie, which gives a 90% chance of no lynch. This vote looks more like a weak attempt to save zuma than to lynch gnarly

Originally Posted by zuma

I remain opposed to name claims. I worry scum's investigative abilities might allow them to discover their first names.

And since when is Bill the "towniest"????

this tune changed so many times the orchestra left


Zuma was my primary yesterDay and Chaos second


nothing has changed at this point
barring new data

[gnarlycharlie]

Originally Posted by BillMc

Well there is an f'n surprise!

to be fair, it was more of your name claim that probably got you killed. hope to see you next game.

Originally Posted by LightFoot

Re: Zuma


compressed- because it is a bit of a wall

Again, though, we'd still run the risk of scum having the same first and last names and finding out their first name after one of them gets lynched, then targeting townies with the same first name. I need to think about this some more, but wanted to throw out some possibilities.[/QUOTE] But maybe not oh but maybe so nope don't like the claiming at all now

back and forth about claiming
earlier didn t like random.org and above loves the idea
EOD tied for the lynch by the last hour vote of Chaos on charlie
as Bill noted

Originally Posted by BillMc

So you throw in a last minute vote to make a tie, which gives a 90% chance of no lynch. This vote looks more like a weak attempt to save zuma than to lynch gnarly

Originally Posted by zuma

I remain opposed to name claims. I worry scum's investigative abilities might allow them to discover their first names.

And since when is Bill the "towniest"????

this tune changed so many times the orchestra left


Zuma was my primary yesterDay and Chaos second


nothing has changed at this point
barring new data[/QUOTE]

no result?

[gnarlycharlie]

oh, no result for Chaos.

[Swammerdami]

I got No Result investigating Zuma.

Originally Posted by Colby11

No result on my end

No result because you didn't investigate, or because the Mod PM'ed you "No Result"? In the latter case, which Player did you Investigate? Is he or she bigger than a breadbox?

We should Lynch from among the reticent. The reticentest is ...

[guiri]

I got no result also. Here's the planned investigations with results so far. Colby, who did you investigate?

Mahaloth investigate Mrs McGinty - no result
Visorslash???
Chaos investigates giraffe - ???
Zuma investigates Mahaloth - no result
Bufftabby investigates Lightfoot - ???
SisterCoyote - ???
Texcat investigates Scathach - Result = Town
Guiri investigates Dizzy - no result
Lightfoot investigates Bufftabby - ???
Swammi investigates Zuma - no result
Dizzy investigates Gnarly - No result
giraffe investigates Guiri - ???
Gnarly investigates Chaos - no result
BillMc investigates Texcat
Colby investigates ??? - No result
Mrs McGinty investigates Swammi - ???
Scathach investigates BillMc - ???

[Mrs McGinty]

Swammi is town.

[Chaos]

No result on Giraffe.

[Scáthach]

I'm not really sure whether I should share if I got results or not. It seems irrelevant since Bill was the night kill and would only serve to give info away about second names. Unless anyone can think of a good reason to share, I'm leaning towards keeping it to myself.

[Swammerdami]

It's fortunate that Scum still only knows one forename. Players can use toDay to convince fellow clique-mates that they know their own name.

We have at least three cliques:

• ITO
  BillMc, Texcat, Scáthach
  
• 3 letters including two of IORT
  Guiri, Gnarlycharlie, Chaos, giraffe, Dizzymrslizzy
  
• 3 letters including exactly one of IORT
  Swammi, Bufftabby, Mrs McGinty, Mahaloth?, Zuma??

Lightfoot, would you like to join one of the cliques? (Or Visorslash, Colby, Sister Coyote?)

I thought it was very clever how Gnarly left a clue sufficient to prove he knows Guiri's name, while offering little help to the ignorant. But with so many clues now posted about that name, Chaos and Dizzy would have to be very careful to construct proofs" that don't give the name away.

No clues have been posted about my name except that it has an R and none of I,T,O. Players in this clique include Mrs McGinty, probably Bufftabby and Mahaloth and possibly Zuma. We don't need to worry about Mrs McGinty now -- (at some point I may investigate her him). How about Bufftabby or Mahaloth? Do either of you want to prove you know my name? .. Or Zuma: If you're really Town it would be anti-Town to let yourself get Lynched; making me think you know my name would probably save you.

If you do post a hint to the name to prove you know it, please use a clever clue like Gnarly's that won't help Scum guess the name. Don't even mention one of the letters: If your name really is the same as mine I think there are several very subtle hints that would make me believe you know it, while leaving others in the dark.

[Mahaloth]

Move me to the group that has two of the letters IORT.

I picked Mcginty because the others I knew in my group were already being investigated.

[TexCat]

Only two results so far. That's a little disappointing.

I know that Scathach and I have the same names. Scathach knows whether or not we are named Ito Freehold. (But I agree she should keep that to herself!)

MrsMc knows that she and Swammi have the same names, but does not know what their last name is.

I am thinking that Scathach and Swammi should turn around and investigate their investigators. I know I'm town and I'm pretty sure now that MrsMc is town, but it might be nice to get those results. And I think it will help prevent scum handing out fake results in the future.

Renewing my vote..

[bufftabby]

Originally Posted by Heterometrus swammerdami

No clues have been posted about my name except that it has an R and none of I,T,O. Players in this clique include Mrs McGinty, probably Bufftabby and Mahaloth and possibly Zuma. We don't need to worry about Mrs McGinty now -- (at some point I may investigate her him). How about Bufftabby or Mahaloth? Do either of you want to prove you know my name? .. Or Zuma: If you're really Town it would be anti-Town to let yourself get Lynched; making me think you know my name would probably save you.

I already did. I'm quite sure you'll recognize it.

I got No Result on LightFoot.

[Mahaloth]

I also say we kill Zuma, as I said yesterDay.

Vote Zuma

[Swammerdami]

Originally Posted by bufftabby

I already did. I'm quite sure you'll recognize it.

And so you did!

Unless Scum have a trick up their sleeves, we're coasting to victory with about half the Players pseudo-confirmed as Townies already!

Scum, ready to capitulate yet?

[LightFoot]

Originally Posted by bufftabby

I already did. I'm quite sure you'll recognize it.

I got No Result on LightFoot.

your 'clue' post ( if you are referring to the post last Night) works if we only have 3 first names to work with

if that is the case you should have seen my clues as well

[LightFoot]

investigations don't really give us much

this Day-or possibly the next- just Data to be verified in future


"Scum result" - Probaly Town found a Scum- but Scum could toss a red herring
easy enough to test and would be 1:1 trade anyway

"Town result"- if the player investigating is Town then accurate ( but we don't know that yet)

if the player investigating is Scum then it could be a pair of red herrings.

" no result" last names don't match- or a Scum player simply assumed a false first name. or both.

this is still basically a vanilla game at this point

[Mahaloth]

Originally Posted by LightFoot

"Scum result" - Probaly Town found a Scum- but Scum could toss a red herring

I tend to find that scum teams are not brave or bold enough to risk this kind of play, though. Of course, me saying this may push them to do it, but I doubt it. It's not worth it since they'd lose one once we found out the lie.

[SisterCoyote]

Originally Posted by Heterometrus swammerdami

It's fortunate that Scum still only knows one forename. Players can use toDay to convince fellow clique-mates that they know their own name.

<snipped for brevity>

Lightfoot, would you like to join one of the cliques? (Or Visorslash, Colby, Sister Coyote?)

This is all getting dreadfully circular. You can float all the demands you'd like, but I stand by my No.

[Swammerdami]

Originally Posted by LightFoot

your 'clue' post ( if you are referring to the post last Night) works if we only have 3 first names to work with

if that is the case you should have seen my clues as well

Bufftabby posted something that makes me 99% certain she knows my name. If you, Lightfoot, shared our name, you might have noticed Bufftabby's hint also. I don't see such evidence from you; am I missing something? Can you point to the post your clue was in?

Have you told us how many of {I,O,R,T} are in your name? Are you in a 4th clique altogether?

[Giraffe]

No result on guiri. From the Night discussion, I'm confident that she, gnarly and I all have the same name.

And I'm good with a zuma lynch. yesterDay's tie could have been scum saving their buddy, so if he flips scum we can lynch Chaos next and potentially get two in one shot.

[LightFoot]

Originally Posted by Heterometrus swammerdami

Bufftabby posted something that makes me 99% certain she knows my name. If you, Lightfoot, shared our name, you might have noticed Bufftabby's hint also. I don't see such evidence from you; am I missing something? Can you point to the post your clue was in?

Have you told us how many of {I,O,R,T} are in your name? Are you in a 4th clique altogether?

like I said before I don't see any clue from buff besides the one letter reference and that does not make it unique if there is a 4th subset

My clues are in N1 thread and although un intended in this one as well

[gnarlycharlie]

Originally Posted by Giraffe

No result on guiri. From the Night discussion, I'm confident that she, gnarly and I all have the same name.

And I'm good with a zuma lynch. yesterDay's tie could have been scum saving their buddy, so if he flips scum we can lynch Chaos next and potentially get two in one shot.

i think guiri will have a fit if you continue calling him a she. LOL

i'm okay with a zuma lynch too but Lightfoot has been pinging me. her posts have been a whole lot of nothing. it also doesn't help that she hasn't participated in the claims.



furthermore i still don't see why scum would need to find our names. could it be that they gain additional powers? could Bill be right about zuma when the former said in N1 that the latter implied scum had a use for the names.

[LightFoot]

player	looked at	says
1. Mahaloth	mrs M	no result
2. Visorslash
3. Chaos	giraffe	no result
4. Zuma	mahaloth	no result
5. bufftabby	Light Foot	no result
6. Sister Coyote
7. texcat	scathach	town
8. guiri	dizzy	no result
9. lightfoot	Buff	no result
10. Heterometrus swammerdami	zuma	no result
11. Dizzymrslizzy	gnarly	no result
12. Giraffe	guiri	no result
13. gnarlycharlie	chaos	no result
14. BillMc	NK Town	Ito Freehold
15. Colby11		no result
16. Mrs. McGinty	swammi	town
17. Scathach	bill	holding info

I think this is accurate?

[LightFoot]

Originally Posted by gnarlycharlie

~snipped~
i think guiri will have a fit if you continue calling him a she. LOL

i'm okay with a zuma lynch too but Lightfoot has been pinging me. her posts have been a whole lot of nothing. it also doesn't help that she hasn't participated in the claims.

[vote]Lightfoot[vote]

furthermore i still don't see why scum would need to find our names. could it be that they gain additional powers? could Bill be right about zuma when the former said in N1 that the latter implied scum had a use for the names.

My thinking out loud generally pings you- just like your lack of same at times
I don't think that will ever change

[LightFoot]

NETA Scum don't know what their own first name is. if they are handed all the variations they can ' pass as Town' by assuming one.
additionally near end game they might have enough info for the one shot DK

[LightFoot]

Originally Posted by Mahaloth

Move me to the group that has two of the letters IORT.

I picked Mcginty because the others I knew in my group were already being investigated.

Weren't you dancing with another group earlier? or am I remembering in correctly?

[bufftabby]

Originally Posted by LightFoot

like I said before I don't see any clue from buff besides the one letter reference and that does not make it unique if there is a 4th subset



My clues are in N1 thread and although un intended in this one as well

Did you see swammerdami's clue? If you saw his, you should see mine. I see something from you that could be vaguely clue-y, but would be a stretch. (The caveat here being that I'm at work and therefore "phoning it in"), so it's entirely possible I've overlooked something more direct. But mine was pretty darn direct, if you know what you're looking for.

[Giraffe]

Originally Posted by gnarlycharlie

i think guiri will have a fit if you continue calling him a she. LOL

Jesus Christ. I think I have a brain tumor.

[Giraffe]

Originally Posted by TexCat

I am thinking that Scathach and Swammi should turn around and investigate their investigators.

This is a really good idea. Even if we don't catch scum, doubling the number of confirmed Town pushes the math a lot more in our favor. It's like one of those logic problems from the GRE: Bob has to sit two seats away from Jill, but Jill can't be next to Walter. Walter must have a man on either side of him, but neither of those men can be Bob, etc. The faster we shrink the pool, the faster we can force scum to create testable claims. Or just lynch everyone outside the pool. If the pool gets big enough fast enough, Town can't lose.

[Scáthach]

Originally Posted by Giraffe

This is a really good idea. Even if we don't catch scum, doubling the number of confirmed Town pushes the math a lot more in our favor..

Either way I don't see any other claimed Ito's for me to investigate so I might as well.

[Mrs McGinty]

It looks to me like you're relying on people thinking scum wouldn't have the guts to come out so hard against a claim policy. But, if you are town, where's the scumhunting?

[Giraffe]

Vote count so far:

Originally Posted by Vote Counting Robot

Zuma (5): LightFoot (9), gnarlycharlie (10), TexCat (19), Mahaloth (21), Giraffe (28)
Sistercoyote (1): Mrs McGinty (39)
Colby11 (1): Heterometrus swammerdami (12)

Direct link to vote counter for Day 2: compute vote count for Day 2

[Giraffe]

<oog>
FYI, I'm going to be out town from tomorrow through Monday night. I'll have some online access, but likely less time than usual to post.
</oog>

[SisterCoyote]

Originally Posted by Mrs McGinty

SisterCoyote

It looks to me like you're relying on people thinking scum wouldn't have the guts to come out so hard against a claim policy. But, if you are town, where's the scumhunting?

Decolorized for Mod sanity.

I accept this vote as valid on one front; I haven't been as participatory or done as much scumhunting as I would like to.

In my defense (and I know you have no reason to believe me, but this is the gods own truth): I discovered two days ago that I did not have a head cold. Instead, I have pink eye, an ear infection, and a throat infection.

This was, perhaps, not the best time for me to come back to Mafia.

There is validity to LightFoot's argument but I'm not ready to vote Zuma yet; I'm certainly not going to vote YOU for voting me. And I'm sorry -- and I think you've fallen into this trap just a little bit -- but I'm slow at picking up clues at the best of times and now...even if they come by twos in one post I'm probably missing them.

[Swammerdami]

Originally Posted by bufftabby

Did you see swammerdami's clue? If you saw his, you should see mine. ... But mine was pretty darn direct, if you know what you're looking for.

And this confused me somewhat. Other than saying I had an R and none of {I,T,O} I left no clue to my name.

I saw a specific cryptic hint from you suggesting our name. If you a similar cryptic clue from me, it was unintentional.

[LightFoot]

from the clues that I have caught I see one player that has the same name as I and 2 potential matches ( if we don't have a 4th set)

when I return from court I will look to see if I can find the cryptic hint that Swammi refers to. if so that should give us four in that group

[Mrs McGinty]

Originally Posted by SisterCoyote

In my defense (and I know you have no reason to believe me, but this is the gods own truth): I discovered two days ago that I did not have a head cold. Instead, I have pink eye, an ear infection, and a throat infection.

You now have my sympathies as well as my vote. Hope you feel better soon.

[TexCat]

Originally Posted by Giraffe

Vote count so far:

Direct link to vote counter for Day 2: compute vote count for Day 2

This is excellent! Thank you.

It looks like Gnarly's botched quote in post 10 counted as a vote. He probably should unvote and revote.

[zuma]

Originally Posted by Giraffe

No result on guiri. From the Night discussion, I'm confident that she, gnarly and I all have the same name.

And I'm good with a zuma lynch. yesterDay's tie could have been scum saving their buddy, so if he flips scum we can lynch Chaos next and potentially get two in one shot.

What will your thoughts be when I'm town? I'm putting Chaos as probably town now. As if he were scum he wouldn't have saved me.

[zuma]

Originally Posted by Heterometrus swammerdami

Or Zuma: If you're really Town it would be anti-Town to let yourself get Lynched; making me think you know my name would probably save you.

I always get lynched. I don't know your name.

[Giraffe]

Originally Posted by zuma

What will your thoughts be when I'm town? I'm putting Chaos as probably town now. As if he were scum he wouldn't have saved me.

Why would you do that? You don't think scum would manipulate the vote, just because you benefited in the short term? That seems very survival-focused, which in a game where all Town players have the same role is pretty suspicious. Happy with my vote.

Although I have to say, if/when you flip scum, this post actually makes me less certain of Chaos being scum as well: I feel like this is weird reverse psychology to get us to think Chaos is your scumbuddy, since why else would you be trying to farm him some Town cred while you're still alive? Or maybe it's reverse reverse psychology? Now my head hurts.

[zuma]

Originally Posted by Giraffe

Why would you do that? You don't think scum would manipulate the vote, just because you benefited in the short term? That seems very survival-focused, which in a game where all Town players have the same role is pretty suspicious. Happy with my vote.

Although I have to say, if/when you flip scum, this post actually makes me less certain of Chaos being scum as well: I feel like this is weird reverse psychology to get us to think Chaos is your scumbuddy, since why else would you be trying to farm him some Town cred while you're still alive? Or maybe it's reverse reverse psychology? Now my head hurts.

Why would Chaos not just let me get lynched if he were scum?