Vegas Mafia Day Two

[Eristic Widgeon]

I guess it's Dawn? Who knows, there are no windows or clocks here. But yeah, I see a couple bodies being discreetly removed from the Bonus Bacon Bonanza Buffet, so I guess it must be.

Precambrianmollusc has gone bust.

Welcome to the game, you are Vanilla Town. You have no special powers except for your voice and your vote. You win when all anti-Town forces have been eliminated.

Vanta Black has faded to...well, you know.

Welcome to the game, you are Town Hider. Each Night, you may choose a player to hide behind. If they are scum, you will die. Otherwise, no powers targeting you will affect you that Night, but any power targeting the player you are hiding behind will affect both you and them. You win when all anti-Town forces have been eliminated.

Note: I have colored and bolded rolenames in the flips for dramatic effect. As you all know, they were just plain text in the actual PMs.

Day Two will end at 2 pm Chicago time on Wednesday June 29.

Go, Players!

[guiri]

Farewell PCM and Vanta.

Lots of options for those events: Serial killer, vig, scum-kill, hider behind scum or hider behind target, redirector, maybe more.
I would have considered Vanta a more likely scum target than PCM but I imagine he also used his power, so then he wouldn’t have been the scum target, and would not have been hiding behind a scum player, but hid behind someone scum wanted to kill? In either case, he might have left a hint but I don’t see anything in his Night 1 posts that look like a hint, unless someone can decipher the MS Office Laptop story.
I found PCM TWTBAW, I think AA also softened her read on him, not sure if anyone else was town-reading him or even scum-reading him, so not an obvious scum target, or vig target for that matter.
For a vig I’d have expected either myself or Texcat to be top targets.

[guiri]

The Living:

1. LightFoot
2. Mahaloth
3. Silverjan
5. Guiri
6. Mordenkainen
7. Archangel
8. Colby11
9. Meeko
10. TexCat
13. Kaiverian
14. Bashorian Clement

The Departed
12. Gnarlycharlie - cop - yeeted D1
4. Precambrianmollusc - vanilla - killed N1
11. Vanta Black - hider - killed N1

Day 1
Texcat (4): guiri (113)[239], Mahaloth (118), Mordenkainen (189), Vanta Black (227), gnarlycharlie (240)
Gnarlycharlie (4): Silverjan (136), Archangel (209), TexCat (237), guiri (239)
Vanta Black (2): Colby11 (72), LightFoot (114), Archangel (148)[190]
Archangel (1): guiri (23)[40], Meeko (100), Vanta Black (108)[187]
Guiri (1): gnarlycharlie (13)[240], Precambrianmollusc (151)
Precambrianmollusc (0): Archangel (89)[148]
Mahaloth (0): Colby11 (28)[28], TexCat (35)[237], Meeko (45)[75]
Meeko (0): Vanta Black (37)[108]

[guiri]

Originally Posted by Archangel

I was concerned about this as well because TexCat just did this exact move as scum in your game (and she won us the game, yay TexCat!). But I think that her vote in that game was emulating her town game, and that she would be less likely to pull the exact same move on the same person twice in a row as scum.

Could you link to that post?

Originally Posted by Archangel

I believe you, FWIW. (For anyone who asks me why I don’t know how to articulate it except to say that 99 times out of 100 that he does this, he ends up being town.)

”Does this” meaning?

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

Coming back for more later. Gonna need some more sleep if I'm to survive tonight at work.

Originally Posted by guiri

How many players shared a read? Any thoughts on those reads? Was the exercise insightful?

Originally Posted by guiri

I don’t like that Kaiverian asked everyone to share a read and has not followed up on that in any way.

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

I'm back. Sorry for ghosting until near EoD but unexpected workloads have kicked my ass and I was having problems accessing the site earlier today. I need some time to recover from this heat but I'll try to catch up shortly.

You admit you were around near EoD but did not post, happy with the status quo?

Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement

I'm confused. Who are the two scum you may have caught, guiri?

Originally Posted by Silverjan

#7 might be unlucky for you.

I was going to say too that posting that you are catching up and then not saying anything about what you've caught up on is a scum tell, the same as rereading and not commenting.

Who were you referring to here?

Would like to hear more from Lightfoot, TexCat, and Colby
Archangel, Meeko, Mahaloth, SilverJan, Mordenkainen are tentatively in my town column.

Given Gnarly’s flip, I would invite any third party who can win with Town to make a full claim now so a coordination effort can be discussed and considered. If there are 3 scum and even just 1 third party, we only have a misyeet or two remaining before mylo. (9-3-1, 8-3-1, 6-3-1, 4-3-1/3-3-1).

[TexCat]

Can we multivote?

[TexCat]

It looks to me like PCM was the scum kill, and Vanta made the mistake of hiding behind scum. Going back to look if he left any crumbs.

[guiri]

Originally Posted by TexCat

Can we multivote?

Probably not, just wanted to back up my suspicions.

Originally Posted by Vote Counting Robot

Kaiveran (1): guiri (4)

If you want, you can paste this as well:

Voting History:
post #4: guiri voted Kaiveran
post #4: guiri illegally voted Bashorian Clement

[TexCat]

That took a while cause I got distracted by oog things. Plus I went back and re-read the last part of D1 that I had skimmed through and hadn't bothered with since I thought I was leaving the game.

I guess it's possible that Vanta hid behind PCM and was killed with him. As the town hider, you'd want to hide behind town, but not someone townie enough to be a likely scum target. A tough decision.

I did note this post from N1, probably because I still think Mahaloth is scum and my confirmation bias was showing.

Originally Posted by Vanta Black

What do you think of guiri and Kaiveran? You've had some pretty good insights which is why I'm asking.

[Meeko]

Originally Posted by Eristic Widgeon

I guess it's Dawn? Who knows, there are no windows or clocks here. But yeah, I see a couple bodies being discreetly removed from the Bonus Bacon Bonanza Buffet, so I guess it must be.

Vanta Black has faded to...well, you know.

Welcome to the game, you are Town Hider.
Each Night, you may choose a player to hide behind. If they are scum, you will die. Otherwise, no powers targeting you will affect you that Night, but any power targeting the player you are hiding behind will affect both you and them.
You win when all anti-Town forces have been eliminated.

Jumping back up here after typing the rest below. ::


I was all set to say "Well, if they were so sure to use their power, on N1 especially, then of course they are going to not only leave a crumb, but they are going to go out in a blaze of glory, and hide behind someone they all but absolutely know is scum. But then, something else happened.


Emphasis mine.


I'd like to think that one does not choose to do this, at all, unless they have a good idea. If one can choose not to do it, especially on N1, it would probably be a good idea to not do it. Otherwise, it's just an added, unnecessary gamble.


But, we do have a result. We do have scum indicated in this result. [Unless, of course we have la miller type of role. We did have paranoid / false cop with ODDS of being wrong.

ODDS.

Vegas.


What if all of our power roles have drawbacks?

The House scum always wins.

---


This kinda puts me in an awkward spot. Those that know my pet peeves either have already guessed what I am up against here. If not, I will spell it out, by asking someone who can't possibly know, directly.

Kaiveran What is your personal opinion, in general, and not informed by this game, of the concept of a "Mass Claim" ? ((I've been wanting to you ask you this, since well, I saw that we had a "new" to us player, that is not tarnished by how we do things around here. I wanted to ask you this, but figured I had to wait, because I abhor the entire thing.


However, now, I do believe we need to at least ask ourselves, and look at, if we are at needs must.

Kai specifically, and then the rest of the game at large [Because, I already know what the rest of the players are going to say here, at least by consensus.] ...... What do we think of mass claiming in this game. --- Further informed by the fact that we have in evidence multiple roles that are informed by probabilities?


----


Finally

I must entertain the fact that if we have losing power roles... we must have the Advantage Players / Card Counters / Card Sharps/Sharks in the audience.

I mean, those roles have to exist, right? We have to have some Town power that is REALLY good to counter act the losing players powers.


At the very least, I need to rethink my votes already. Even the fact that despite my drive on AA, and my stated desire to vote them again, ... Despite that, and wanting to look at the rapid voting that went on late on page 5 in Day 1, .... I think we really need to slow down a gear, at losing three of us, already.

I honestly feel there is still a chance for town out there. (I mean, yes, the game is still on, but, I mean to say I think it is more optimistic than that.) We aren't going to get it by looking too much at Day 1. Even if it was Day 3 or 4. [And by this, I mean, to say, looking back in general, not because it was Day 1, that we have game changing information here, with the Day 2 flips.

I might be wrong on the entire Powers that have odds.... but I think again, given that it's Vegas, and we have NO OTHER COLOR / or Mini Games in public mod posts [[I was hoping for a poker run, myself]] ... that I think I'm closer to right than not on this. If so we need to let that notion inform our votes.


This is quickly evolving into a much longer post that I wanted. I am aware that I am at the end of what I wanted to say, and I do think I have clarified / elaborated / restated as much as I can. Anymore would truly be redundant.

[Meeko]

NETA :

How does a Town Hider on Night 1 differ from a NI Town Vig shot?

But a Vig could leave a crumb too.




Yeah. We have a Super town power in this game. It probably moves my desire to want a mass claim [[What the hell is Meeko smoking, he wants to mass claim?!]] back to at least neutral, if doing so were to mean that we lose an ""advantage"". We should not be outing a Town power role that has amazing (and at this point, sorely needed) power.

[Precambrianmollusc]

Boooo scum , Go town
Off to the peanut gallery if we have one.

[guiri]

Meeko, if you have something you want to share and feel this is the time to most benefit Town, then go ahead, however a mass claim on D2 would require some really strong arguments in its favor. We’ve lost two power roles, I cannot imagine there are more than 1 or 2 remaining, but there are third parties, and certainly scum, and possibly two NKs.

[Meeko]

Originally Posted by guiri

Meeko, if you have something you want to share and feel this is the time to most benefit Town, then go ahead, however a mass claim on D2 would require some really strong arguments in its favor. We’ve lost two power roles, I cannot imagine there are more than 1 or 2 remaining, but there are third parties, and certainly scum, and possibly two NKs.

I'm Vanilla.

[Meeko]

There is this ::

Originally Posted by Vanta Black

Somebody has to say it, Pfui!

The last couple of games I played where the cop claimed fairly early town did really well. I'm thinking it's protown to claim, even if you aren't in vote peril, because then the doc knows who to protect and the vig knows who not to shoot. At least the best person not to shoot.

Sorry your day sucked, Eristic.

I think there a crumb was left. I don't think it was in this post. I'm saying you wouldn't post this, and not also post a crumb.

[Meeko]

Originally Posted by guiri

Meeko, if you have something you want to share and feel this is the time to most benefit Town, then go ahead, however a mass claim on D2 would require some really strong arguments in its favor. We’ve lost two power roles, I cannot imagine there are more than 1 or 2 remaining, but there are third parties, and certainly scum, and possibly two NKs.

On a deeper level here, how did you read mine, and arrive at the fact that I was actively pushing for a claim? I thought I bent over backwards to stress that I was, at best, ambivalent, about the entire thing.

[Meeko]

Originally Posted by guiri

Meeko, if you have something you want to share and feel this is the time to most benefit Town, then go ahead, however a mass claim on D2 would require some really strong arguments in its favor. We’ve lost two power roles, I cannot imagine there are more than 1 or 2 remaining, but there are third parties, and certainly scum, and possibly two NKs.

I hate to keep reposting this post, but damn if there is not a lot going on in it. Well, at least for me, and how I play.

Or how I should play, rather.

Originally Posted by gnarlycharlie

Welcome to the game, you are Town Cop.


If your target is Town or Scum, you will have a 75% chance of reading them correctly and a 25% chance of misreading them as a Third Party. You will always accurately identify actual Third Parties.

I was all set to go into "How do we know there are third parties again?" and comment about why is it, that all of you can apparently skim the right things to skim, and yet, I end up skimming over the important parts?


I Was all set to do that. Obviously, I found and read such post.

And I realize something. I don't think I skim as much as I do. That is, I read this, I saw this, and I'm not sure it went to the same part of my brain, as it did for you guys.

As written, the claim above does not guarantee that third parties MUST exist. If there happens to be any, I will let you know. ..... There aren't any, so I don't have to worry about this. [[That's the Mod talking.]]

[Archangel]

Guiri, I should be able to find the post where TexCat voted Mahaloth in the last game, just give me some time, I didn’t know night ended, I am really stressed IRL.

Re Mahaloth, “does this” means claiming vanilla town as vanilla town. However I think I’ve also seen him do it as scum so more NAI than a town tell.

[Archangel]

(I’m sure the previous post is going to confuse people because in the original post I said 99 times out of 100 he does this he’s town, and now I’m saying he does it as scum too. When I made the first post I could only recall instances of him doing it as town but now I remembered he’s flipped scum too after doing this. I am not trying to move the goalposts or lie, I have crappy memory as both alignments.)

[guiri]

Originally Posted by Meeko

I hate to keep reposting this post, but damn if there is not a lot going on in it. Well, at least for me, and how I play.

Or how I should play, rather.

I was all set to go into "How do we know there are third parties again?" and comment about why is it, that all of you can apparently skim the right things to skim, and yet, I end up skimming over the important parts?


I Was all set to do that. Obviously, I found and read such post.

And I realize something. I don't think I skim as much as I do. That is, I read this, I saw this, and I'm not sure it went to the same part of my brain, as it did for you guys.

As written, the claim above does not guarantee that third parties MUST exist. If there happens to be any, I will let you know. ..... There aren't any, so I don't have to worry about this. [[That's the Mod talking.]]

OK, so nothing is 100%, but between Gnarly’s role and our wincon which mentions multiple anti-town forces, I’m not considering worlds where there is just one enemy.

[guiri]

Originally Posted by Meeko

On a deeper level here, how did you read mine, and arrive at the fact that I was actively pushing for a claim? I thought I bent over backwards to stress that I was, at best, ambivalent, about the entire thing.

Can I be honest? I skimmed your post and thought you were pushing for a mass claim. My bad.

[Meeko]

Originally Posted by guiri

Can I be honest? I skimmed your post and thought you were pushing for a mass claim. My bad.

I feel as if everything has been more or less "" Off "" this (last) week. Or Month, or Year, .... or Decade (of 2020)

Oh Noes!! You said "" Can I be honest "" scummy scummy scum tell!

Guiri, do you think Vanta left a crumb? Because, if I can be honest at the same time, you are on my very very very short list for votes at current.

If I don't say anything else, I don't have to post rationale, right?

[Meeko]

Originally Posted by guiri

I’m not considering worlds where there is just one enemy.

OOG

This phrasing.

This, you may never know how much this strikes at / touches some deep hidden thing in me. It gets at me in a primal way.

Please tell me that this phrasing is not your own, and by virtue of that, there is some book or other work that you can link me to.

Because, damn, if you are speaking to Abstraction. Damn if I cannot do that. As my various Comp Sci professors would inform.

Like, I think there is something fundamentally off with me, as far as being able to see trees for the forest. [[Or the other way around here, Again, I suck at all of it, so I could be holding the baseball bat upside down here, you know?]]

[Meeko]

[guiri]

Originally Posted by Meeko

I feel as if everything has been more or less "" Off "" this (last) week. Or Month, or Year, .... or Decade (of 2020)

Oh Noes!! You said "" Can I be honest "" scummy scummy scum tell!

Guiri, do you think Vanta left a crumb? Because, if I can be honest at the same time, you are on my very very very short list for votes at current.

If I don't say anything else, I don't have to post rationale, right?

I looked for crumbs, but did not see anything. I thought maybe the whole MS Office post could have been one but have not deciphered anything yet.

I was being honest as I risked offending you, not related to the game or reads. I imagine you appreciate my frankness.

Does your very very very short list include more than my name?

[guiri]

Originally Posted by Meeko

OOG

This phrasing.

This, you may never know how much this strikes at / touches some deep hidden thing in me. It gets at me in a primal way.

Please tell me that this phrasing is not your own, and by virtue of that, there is some book or other work that you can link me to.

Because, damn, if you are speaking to Abstraction. Damn if I cannot do that. As my various Comp Sci professors would inform.

Like, I think there is something fundamentally off with me, as far as being able to see trees for the forest. [[Or the other way around here, Again, I suck at all of it, so I could be holding the baseball bat upside down here, you know?]]

I just played a game on another site where they refer to “worlds” of possible teams or events, such as the world where no scum bussed another, or a world where X and Y are scum and how that world would play out… similar to early D1 readslists, something I never ever considered doing until recently when it was forced. I tried it once here and got shot down for flimsy reasoning.

[Meeko]

Originally Posted by guiri

I just played a game on another site where they refer to “worlds” of possible teams or events, such as the world where no scum bussed another, or a world where X and Y are scum and how that world would play out… similar to early D1 readslists, something I never ever considered doing until recently when it was forced. I tried it once here and got shot down for flimsy reasoning.

OOG

I debated elaborating / adding an aside on top of an aside. I have come across similar, when I tried out for a position with Wizards Of The Coast [Dungeons and Dragons and more relevant to this story, Magic The Gathering.] The application process was more akin to a Reality TV show, they had a wide open job search, for one position. Any and all were actively invited to apply, and there were various rounds of job related challenges, that more or less approached an Interview / NFL Combine, that tested your gaming chops. The first round, for example, asked for 10 400 (or so) word essays, on various topics, relating to biographical, personality, and game playing aptitude. That wave got rid of most of us, and then it went on to a multiple choice exam on Magic The Gathering itself, as the job to be filled was that of Magic Card designer [writer]. I would make my exit in this round, having gotten 40 of the questions correct, and the cut off was 44. All of the above to say:: One very involved game state of Magic was presented. Like, "We take you live to a game in progress" ... and the question set up all of the _relevant_ information you needed to know about how a game could (would) progress. It point blank warned against going above and beyond what was being asked. That Yes, you could use card X on on card Y, to do thing Z, but we aren't asking you to asses that, or anything else pertaining to how X and Y interact with each other. [[Ironically, I'm trying to abstract for you, in a story about how we, as a tribe, suck at doing it.]] It's my belief that they are aware that most of us can't abstract when we need to, and that, they were so aware of this, that they knew to nip in the bud, that it still happens, even after the warning. They had to get the foreknowledge somewhere. The fact that I can't abstract has to be more common that lets on. There have to be ways to combat it. I was hoping that you had outside information about this, other than (respectfully) being in the same boat as me, and offering trivial advancement up and out of it. I begin to think that I'm stuck with certain parts of my personality.

[guiri]

Sorry to disappoint. I’m not familiar with MtG but a job writing magic cards sounds like a dream job for a fan, no wonder the selection process was so elaborate and difficult!

[Meeko]

Originally Posted by guiri

I looked for crumbs, but did not see anything. I thought maybe the whole MS Office post could have been one but have not deciphered anything yet.

I was being honest as I risked offending you, not related to the game or reads. I imagine you appreciate my frankness.

Does your very very very short list include more than my name?

Originally Posted by Meeko

Vote Kaiveran

As I said, it's a short list.

----

"" I imagine you appreciate my frankness. ""

I do. I'm not sure how to comment beyond this.

All of my posts of late can be seen to relate to each other. I am aware that, in a certain sense, my "tank" for certain things is empty.

But, it's more correct to say that the "tank" doesn't even exist, over simply being empty. A simple refill won't work.

Not sure. that probably doesn't help.

[Mahaloth]

Other than my Vanilla Town claim, any other claims? I will make a spreadsheet for myself, but have not tracked them yet.

[Kaiveran]

Hai, it's Kai from the busted ass phone dimension

Very busy over here so I didn't get to the big megapost i wanted too. The lag is real.

Hopefully it should finally clear up tomorrow, and I'm committing to posting at least one analyze wall then.

Until that happens i wouldn't expect much other than menchies/currents events from me.

A quick skim tells me that bánta leaving hints/crumbs a s to a hiding target has been discussed but not thoroughly investigated. That could be a good starting point

[Archangel]

Originally Posted by Mahaloth

Other than my Vanilla Town claim, any other claims? I will make a spreadsheet for myself, but have not tracked them yet.

I claimed not a vig. (I am in fact not a vig.)

[Kaiveran]

Literal shitposting here

Originally Posted by guiri

You admit you were around near EoD but did not post, happy with the status quo?

I was not, in fact, around for EoD. If you check the timestamps that post was made well after EoD, which is the basis for my first post of Night 1.

And is massclaim being considered? My knee-jerk reaction is that it's a bad idea, but considering the current game state could be 3:1:7 heading to 3:1:4 if we beef it again, it might not be a bad move

Two hrs of bullfuckery left

[Silverjan]

Originally Posted by guiri

Who were you referring to here?

Would like to hear more from Lightfoot, TexCat, and Colby
Archangel, Meeko, Mahaloth, SilverJan, Mordenkainen are tentatively in my town column.

Given Gnarly’s flip, I would invite any third party who can win with Town to make a full claim now so a coordination effort can be discussed and considered. If there are 3 scum and even just 1 third party, we only have a misyeet or two remaining before mylo. (9-3-1, 8-3-1, 6-3-1, 4-3-1/3-3-1).

I wasn't talking about anyone in particular, It was just a comment on AA's post.

[Meeko]

Originally Posted by Mahaloth

Other than my Vanilla Town claim, any other claims? I will make a spreadsheet for myself, but have not tracked them yet.

Your eagerness here pings. Quite a bit.

[guiri]

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

Literal shitposting here

I was not, in fact, around for EoD. If you check the timestamps that post was made well after EoD, which is the basis for my first post of Night 1.

Oh, you were not around near EoD? You meant after or past EoD here?

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

I'm back. Sorry for ghosting until near EoD but unexpected workloads have kicked my ass and I was having problems accessing the site earlier today. I need some time to recover from this heat but I'll try to catch up shortly.

Is promising to come back with more later and then not delivering not a scumtell where you usually do play?

[Kaiveran]

So.

Re-evaluating Day 1.

I think it's pretty obvious that there are two distinct worlds to explore when trying to suss out the scum in our midst:

• TvT wagons, in which TexCat and charlie were just two unfortunate townies caught up in a shitstorm, vs.
• TvS wagons, in which wolf!Tex & Co. only barely prevailed against an on-track town.

Disclaimer of bias: just on the face of things, I think it's safer to assume the former to avoid too much pre-flippy bullshit. However, if there turns out to be strong indications of wolfy behavior/associations around the Tex wagon, it might actually prove useful and I would be open to hearing any detailed takes on this side of the coin.

But more to the point, there's a common thread between these narratives that's worth pulling regardless of which you believe; how people treated gnarlycharlie in the run up to the execution. I think it's crucial here to distinguish real reads from thinly disguised wagon-hopping, genuine engagement from putting on kid gloves.

So time to get to work on that. (WARNING: Tangents may abound)

Who's coming at gnarlycharlie crooked?

First charlie-related incident is at #13 onward, with guiri. guiri seems quick to throw shade at charlie despite that it could easily be a simple misunderstanding. charlie doesn't ever appear to hit back in the subsequent posts, and guiri appears to have her firmly in the crosshairs as of #40. Maybe. My reach-senses are tingling.

#84, Silverjan speaks on charlie for the first time (following my instructions, that I really wish I had gotten back in time to act upon). And, yeah, it's flimsy, as all reads are to some degree ATP, but it seems genuine, has a specific reason, and looks honest about strength (just a "niggle"). guiri seems like he might be overselling it by comparison.

#113, guiri votes Tex but clearly keeps charlie on the table (among others). It's consistent with his earlier posts at least, and 5 candidates on D1 is actually a pretty trim dragnet for someone who believes in a Hostile 3P; so good on guiri for that.

#128 from Archangel may be worth noting if they show what exactly "not enough data" entails in their playstyle by EoD. (note: Lightfoot, Silverjan, Morden, Colby, charlie)

In context of the Day ending soon, #136 from Silverjan is highly understandable. I would've preferred to have a bit more data before going in for the kill, but attempting to put personal bias aside, I can see how charlie's radio silence after the callout could read as positive evidence of guilt. Combine that with #140 which shows a degree of caution, and I don't see much by way of malicious intent here.

At #143 we have counterpoint for Mordenkainen, which doesn't look like white-knighting of any sort to me. Indeed, it looks like Morden is a space wizard after my own heart, wanting to have a substantial body of content from someone before giving them the ax.

(Aside: I am nearly always opposed to the D1 low/no-poster policy wagon on general principle. It's truly imperative that you have something to read a player by before you vote them, and if lurksacks continue being a problem in later Days it is usually trivial to launch them later because they have little to no presence/control in the thread, you'll have more license to put together viable teams including them, and/or any partners trying to stick their neck out for such a nothingburger will be playing a very dangerous game. But you shouldn't just killdozer lurkers D1, because what happens after that is D2 is just D1 all over again, just with fewer people in it. Even if you yeet a wolf this way, it tells you nothing about who their partners are.)

At #144 we get a followup to Archangel's #128, and her approach on "not enough data" looks pretty good to me. Resisting the LHF wagon for specific reasons. Might be biased because it slots exactly into the philosophical spiel I wrote above, but she does double down on it in vs. Silverjan at #147.

RIP mollusc, you valiant charlie defender you.

Silverjan's response to Archangel at #155, it's a little thin but I think the "wish I was better at persuading thing" speaks to actual confidence in the gnarly read. Like there's some desire to actually see it through being expressed here, there's no stepping back at all.

The back and forth between guiri and mollusc starting at #161...

(First off, we're both furries. I would say "as well", but really I fell out of the brony fandom less than midway through FiM, if I recall correctly. It was a combination of perceived mismanagement and slights by Hasbro {RIP Fighting Is Magic}, plus a very real increasing proportion of Nazis and other varieties of creeps.)

But belaying that, I'm making a note of #165 in case because I think I remember guiri's vote ending up on charlie anyways, but I'm not sure. As per my own observations above, I definitely see how mollusc aligned with my thoughts here. And #166 immediately after spikes my Plausible Deniability Detector.

charlie says her own piece at #169. Our reads seem mostly aligned. I don't know why I'm making note of this because the only outlier (Vanta Black, who I don't recall looking much into) is already dead and conf town. Maybe Silverjan changes attitude later in response to this?

There are some good points made in #171 re:Guiri, though.

(And I feel this post is relevant even now. Sure, for the purposes of enforcing vote discipline and/or figuring out massclaim timing, it's probably safe to assume wolves + SKish role. But it's still not proven to be the case by any means. For example, Vanta Black could've just hid behind PCM as the wolves killed him.)

I can't quite put my finger on it, but something just seems off about the escalation at #191. I know, I know, if gut reads were diamonds...

#209, with 4 minutes to go, Archangel votes charlie, which is almost certainly what sets the death machinery into motion. Reading it in the (apparently) desperate context it's in, it looks okay. Alignment with Silverjan seems consistent with earlier, and the last line to me suggests it is principled, she's resisting the old "resolving slots" canard. My problem (which I can add in retrospect) is that she just totally ghosts after this (when EW confirms there's more time in the day)

#232 reads as very disingenuous to me in hindsight. No, nobody else did interpret "anti-town forces" to possibly mean multiball, but that doesn't mean it's impossible, nor should it necessarily mean that anyone who does is a wolf, given the publicly available info. Also, guiri will "happily switch" to gnarly after this, so why would he want to avoid a tie? If he was truly convinced of scum!gnarly at this stage, wouldn't he gladly take a 50% chance of getting her dead vs. 0%? This whole post stinks.

Precious little to read with TexCat here. Self-pres vote at the buzzer and no process behind the Mahaloth/BC reads (that I can find) so a big cloud of null here. So it's very odd to see it treated as justification at 239 (See, I remembered right about guiri's vote!) Something tells me gnarly might have been right...

...and then she deads.

So in review, the interactions with gnarlycharlie in rough order of towniness:
Mordenkainen
Silverjan
Archangel
TexCat
guiri

-----

just gonna

for now.

I'd like to deep dive into the two worlds and TexCat and such, but I'm too tired and struggling with too many distractions to hack it right now. I'm also a bit doubtful b/c I think town needs focus right now, especially after some pretty heavy losses, and I don't want to get people chasing too many rabbits. But I'll see what the feedback squeals to me.

I'll mouth off some more later.

[guiri]

No response to my questions earlier? Very selective of you.

[guiri]

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

First charlie-related incident is at #13 onward, with guiri. guiri seems quick to throw shade at charlie despite that it could easily be a simple misunderstanding. charlie doesn't ever appear to hit back in the subsequent posts, and guiri appears to have her firmly in the crosshairs as of #40. Maybe. My reach-senses are tingling.

You cannot deny that Gnarly's accusation of PIS exposed his own PIS, it's now proven, but it was town-PIS and not 3-party or scum PIS, my bad.

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

But belaying that, I'm making a note of #165 in case because I think I remember guiri's vote ending up on charlie anyways, but I'm not sure. As per my own observations above, I definitely see how mollusc aligned with my thoughts here. And #166 immediately after spikes my Plausible Deniability Detector.

Explain the bit in bold please.

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

There are some good points made in #171 re:Guiri, though.

(And I feel this post is relevant even now. Sure, for the purposes of enforcing vote discipline and/or figuring out massclaim timing, it's probably safe to assume wolves + SKish role. But it's still not proven to be the case by any means. For example, Vanta Black could've just hid behind PCM as the wolves killed him.)

That was tortured logic to squirm out of exposing his PIS, in fact it's what made me more confident later.

You missed my #225, questioning Archangel's last minute vote on Gnarly.

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

#232 reads as very disingenuous to me in hindsight. No, nobody else did interpret "anti-town forces" to possibly mean multiball, but that doesn't mean it's impossible, nor should it necessarily mean that anyone who does is a wolf, given the publicly available info. Also, guiri will "happily switch" to gnarly after this, so why would he want to avoid a tie? If he was truly convinced of scum!gnarly at this stage, wouldn't he gladly take a 50% chance of getting her dead vs. 0%? This whole post stinks.

Read it again, he gave two options: multiball or forces=multiple scum members. Remember I was voting TexCat all this time? I felt Gnarly was LHF and TexCat was a better chance of scum, but between her returning to the thread with a read, and Gnarly being online but not posting, I switched.

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

Precious little to read with TexCat here. Self-pres vote at the buzzer and no process behind the Mahaloth/BC reads (that I can find) so a big cloud of null here. So it's very odd to see it treated as justification at 239 (See, I remembered right about guiri's vote!) Something tells me gnarly might have been right...

TexCat's post was not justification, where did you read that?

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

...and then she deads.

He, FWIW.

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

I'd like to deep dive into the two worlds and TexCat and such, but I'm too tired and struggling with too many distractions to hack it right now. I'm also a bit doubtful b/c I think town needs focus right now, especially after some pretty heavy losses, and I don't want to get people chasing too many rabbits. But I'll see what the feedback squeals to me.

When you come back, bring all the walls you were authoring D1 please.

[guiri]

If you believe both Texcat and Gnarly are town, and I’m scum, what’s my motivation for the switch?

[Archangel]

Guiri, I have no internet at work so I can’t link to the TexCat post from the previous game. It is D2 though in Vanta’s game, and (IIRC but my memory sucks) it was a naked vote on Mahaloth after Eristic voted him. She may have given reasoning earlier that I missed.

I just don’t think it’s TexCat this time. I could be wrong but there’s a subtle difference. I do agree with Meeko about Mahaloth too- any time I’ve seen someone say “I’ll make a spreadsheet “ they end up flipping scum.

My thoughts are disorganized and I haven’t read Kaiveran yet.

[Meeko]

It's always interesting when your two leading scum suspects end up voting for each other.

It's like Texas Hold Em, with multiple All-ins, you are a non-committed middle stack, and yet you know, somehow, at the end of it, you are going to lose.

I'd say more, but I'm pressured both on time IRL, and incorrect perceptions of me IRL, niether shouldn't really hold sway in this game, yet, somehow, already do. One could argue that time and lurking (which I'm not doing) might should inform the game in general, but it doesn't. This is in direct opposition of the latter. That shouldn't matter, and it is being given more weight.

Kai, you don't need to give me warnings on possible tangents. I divert by default.

[guiri]

Originally Posted by Archangel

Guiri, I have no internet at work so I can’t link to the TexCat post from the previous game. It is D2 though in Vanta’s game, and (IIRC but my memory sucks) it was a naked vote on Mahaloth after Eristic voted him. She may have given reasoning earlier that I missed.

I just don’t think it’s TexCat this time. I could be wrong but there’s a subtle difference. I do agree with Meeko about Mahaloth too- any time I’ve seen someone say “I’ll make a spreadsheet “ they end up flipping scum.

My thoughts are disorganized and I haven’t read Kaiveran yet.

I can't find it, but it's not a big deal, maybe TexCat will remember.

I wonder if there's a spreadsheet scumtell, or if it's just a variant on the empty-promise tell.

[Silverjan]

Originally Posted by Meeko

Your eagerness here pings. Quite a bit.

Meeko, I thought you had claimed Vanilla too?

[Silverjan]

Originally Posted by guiri

If you believe both Texcat and Gnarly are town, and I’m scum, what’s my motivation for the switch?

I hope to hell you aren't scum, you are one of the players that make me think logically, even when I call you out for things (like excluding yourself from your overall scum reads)

[guiri]

And I still think it’s weird to include yourself in a reads list, unless it’s a joke 😊

[Silverjan]

Originally Posted by guiri

And I still think it’s weird to include yourself in a reads list, unless it’s a joke 😊

It was a joke

[guiri]

@Bashorian Clement @Colby11 @LightFoot @Mordenkainen Day 2 has started!

[Colby11]

Originally Posted by guiri

@Bashorian Clement @Colby11 @LightFoot @Mordenkainen Day 2 has started!

Thanks for the mention. Sorry been busy with work and life….

[LightFoot]

I ust blew up my car

I will try to calm down and focus here in a bit

[LightFoot]

Originally Posted by TexCat

It looks to me like PCM was the scum kill, and Vanta made the mistake of hiding behind scum. Going back to look if he left any crumbs.

Hid behind Scum OR behind PCM.
As it had unlimted uses I probably would have used it behind my Town read.

It would have been a benefit IF Vanta had not been deaded- they would have known the person they hid behind was not Scum.