Last Stand Mafia - Day 8

[Red Skeezix]

The dawn of day brings a grisly scene. Guiri seems to have been drawn and quartered on the parade ground.

=================================================
(Sorry for the lame color, i'm just tired as a dog.)

Guiri aka Specialist, Information(Town) is Dead.

Giraffe aka Chief Interrogator(Town) was an alignment cop.

Tonight's mission will be 3rd Watch for one player.

Day will end on Tuesday at 7 PM.

With 5 players alive, the hammer is set to 4.

[guiri]

Go Town!

[Chucara]

Not surprising, thanks for playing guiri.

Once again, I think Bill or Merestil Haye are the most likely candidates to be scum.

With 4/1 today, and 2/1 tomorrow, I think we are more or less forced lynch Bill today.

Scenario where we lynch Bill, MHaye is town:
4*/1 -> (Bill lynched, Scuba is NK'ed) -> 2/1 -> (We lynch MHaye) -> Victory

Scenario where we lynch MHaye, Bill is town:
4*/1 -> (MHaye lynched, Scuba is NK'ed) -> 2*/1 -> Scum can force a tie, and it is up to random.org to determine whether or not we win.

* = One player not voting

In other words, if we think there is any chance that Bill is scum, I think we have to lynch him.

[crys]

Originally Posted by Chucara

Not surprising, thanks for playing guiri.

Once again, I think Bill or Merestil Haye are the most likely candidates to be scum.

With 4/1 today, and 2/1 tomorrow, I think we are more or less forced lynch Bill today.

Scenario where we lynch Bill, MHaye is town:
4*/1 -> (Bill lynched, Scuba is NK'ed) -> 2/1 -> (We lynch MHaye) -> Victory

Scenario where we lynch MHaye, Bill is town:
4*/1 -> (MHaye lynched, Scuba is NK'ed) -> 2*/1 -> Scum can force a tie, and it is up to random.org to determine whether or not we win.

* = One player not voting

In other words, if we think there is any chance that Bill is scum, I think we have to lynch him.

Yes but I'm not entirely convinced there is only one scum left. It wouldn't be unbalanced for 2 to be left especially with possible recruitment.

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[Scuba Ben]

My mission peem:

Originally Posted by Red Skeezix

You have been chosen to conduct the mission on night 7.

What does this mean?

1. Due to the nature of the mission, you are untargettable.

2. Since you are on a mission, you cannot perform any action of your own.

3. The mission, "Clean Barracks Bathroom" does not convey any additional benefits to you.

4. At the end of the evening, you will receive the results of your mission.

5. You are ineligible to conduct the mission tomorrow.

My result peem:

Originally Posted by Red Skeezix

You clean the bathroom without incident, spending all night disinfecting, scrubbing and mopping. It's so clean that you could eat sushi off of the floor. Your mission was successful.

If there is one Scum and no 3rd Party remaining, and you all believe my peem postings, then I did not kill guiri. Disbelieving either assumption means I am not in the clear.

I disagree STRONGLY with Chucara. BillMc basically dropped out, so no need to lynch him.

I'm still trying to decide between Chucara and Merestil Haye; Chucara's post makes me lean back towards him. So for the mission, .

We know nothing about the mission. However every mission PM so far has indicated that the missionary(ies) cannot be targeted and cannot take non-mission actions. (With the note that Tinker's investigation apparently did not count as targeting.) So going on the mission is very likely protective.

[Chucara]

Scuba: I don't really see how you can disagree. I am stating facts here, not opinion. I don't really see how you can think I've been bussing Squid for three days, especially since it could've been easily avoided.

Assuming no extra NKs, we can lynch Bill 'free'. No, I think it would be extremely lame if Bill were scum, but if were are to play it safely, we need to consider the option.

I did make an error in my post - it was supposed to say '... is scum' instead of town in the two cases.

If two scum remains, my argument is invalid.

I believe that Scuba did not kill guiri. That leaves MHaye, Bill and crys. Of those, I still think MHaye is the most likely candidate.

The point of my post is: with 4 people active, and 1 scum remaining, if we lynch an active member and scum kills one at night, we are at an effective LYLO right now. (As it will be 1 active town, 1 inactive town, 1 scum Tomorrow).

If we lynch Bill, we can postpone LYLO until Tomorrow and remove any doubts about Bill.

However, in my mind, Bill being scum would be gamebreakingly lame, so I am also fine with just assuming Bill is town if everyone wants to end the game sooner. (or if you think a night action might change things).

If there are two scum (and it isn't Bill), we've already lost.

If the consensus is to rule out Bill as scum, then I will vote MHaye. I will wait until we hear from everyone.

[Scuba Ben]

Hmmm... you've got a point there, Chucara, about your long running effort to lynch Flying Squid.

You're also right that if there are two active Scum they can bandwagon together and win.

It still seems to me that if Bill is Scum with somebody else he should get DQ'd as soon as we lynch that active Scum.

There is this point: Assuming we generally narrow it down to two suspects, we lynch one Today and the other Tomorrow.

So I favor lynching, or at least doing our collective best to figure out, an active Scum.

My always-iffy ranking from Town to Scum:
me (of course)
crys
Chucara
Merestil Haye
(BillMc inactive)

I'm not going to vote yet to avoid Scum having a chance to bang the hammer, just in case I'm wrong.

[Chucara]

Scuba: The hammer is 4 people. Since Bill isn't playing, it would require the player in question to vote for himself

[crys]

Originally Posted by Chucara

Scuba: The hammer is 4 people. Since Bill isn't playing, it would require the player in question to vote for himself

Well.....I doubt we are going to get a hammer whichever way we go

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[Scuba Ben]

Originally Posted by Chucara

Scuba: The hammer is 4 people. Since Bill isn't playing, it would require the player in question to vote for himself

Good point.

Need

[crys]

Omg I am starting to channel meekos paranoia or something....what if bill hasn't dropped out but is only posting in the scum board?

Since he has been busy faking a mini flip out would make us less likely to be suspicious of his inactivity. It would be a brilliant manipulation imo.

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[Chucara]

crys: Hence my point about lynching him for free. It also seems odd that Red Skeezix hasn't modkilled him yet.




I don't think we can gain much from missions. We still shouldn't send scum though. I order I'd send: myself, scuba, crys, bill, mhaye.

[crys]

Originally Posted by Chucara

crys: Hence my point about lynching him for free. It also seems odd that Red Skeezix hasn't modkilled him yet.




I don't think we can gain much from missions. We still shouldn't send scum though. I order I'd send: myself, scuba, crys, bill, mhaye.

Yeah well it might help if you stop talking about a modkill cause the rules say he won't talk about it

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[crys]

Originally Posted by Chucara

crys: Hence my point about lynching him for free. It also seems odd that Red Skeezix hasn't modkilled him yet.




I don't think we can gain much from missions. We still shouldn't send scum though. I order I'd send: myself, scuba, crys, bill, mhaye.

Or you are the last scum. Or ben is scum however I find that less likely than you being scum atm.

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[Chucara]

Originally Posted by crys

Yeah well it might help if you stop talking about a modkill cause the rules say he won't talk about it

He hasn't been killed since being away D3, I doubt it will happen now. I don't see how us discussing the situation has any impact on what Skeezix does.

Originally Posted by crys

Or you are the last scum. Or ben is scum however I find that less likely than you being scum atm.

Obviously, we have differing views of who is scum. I know I am not, you probably know that you are not. No surprise there.

[crys]

ok so no one has had much to say. So there is most likely only one scum left. Are you just shooting in the dark Chucara?

Yesterday you said something about Mhaye. Why no vote for them today and targeting the lurker?

[Chucara]

Crys: because we can lynch Bill for free. If there is any chance he is scum, he should get lynched now.. We can lynch one active player OR one active player and Bill.. Seems an easy choice...

[Chucara]

Did the game die, or has thanksgiving kicked in?

[crys]

Originally Posted by Chucara

Did the game die, or has thanksgiving kicked in?

Um yesterday was my birthday so not entirely involved this weekend.

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[Val Salva]

Originally Posted by crys

Um yesterday was my birthday so not entirely involved this weekend.

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Happy Birthday, Crys

[Merestil Haye]

Crys, belated happy birthday.

Thanksgiving is next week - I think.

I started to write a post and got caught by following the US Grand Prix. Now, back to work.

There are five of us left. it's somewhat disturbing to me to realise that I don't have much of a handle on any of you. I can't even remember if any of my early-game notes said anything about any of you (Chucara excepted - I'm almost certain he subbed in after my PC blew up.) So I'm going to have to reread between now and Monday evening.

Bill's disappearance does pose a problem. I could, in theory, be OK with stringing him up, but only if I felt that, on balance, Chucara, Crys and Scuba Ben were all Town, and thus Bill had to be the last Mafiate. The last time I found myself in this position, I was right - we lynched the very last Demon. (Town still lost the game though.)

There is a significant difference between this game and that though. The difference is that the player we lynched in that game was posting very infrequently, but was still active, whereas Bill appears to have gone altogether. That suggests to me that there is at least one active Mafiate.

The question of whether there are one or two active Mafia also needs to be considered when deciding when to lynch Bill.

If there are two active Mafiates (ie Bill is Town), then I don't think we can win unless Bill returns and starts voting. If we lynch Bill and he is Town, we've lost, but all we've done is to formalise the inevitable result. If, on the other hand, Bill is one of the Mafia, he needs to be lynched sooner or later, and killing him now will bring us to three-handed Mafia.

I've disregarded the possibility of third parties because I don't believe that there would be five Mafiates and two third party players to start. Third party players in this game are all (in our usual lexicon) PFKs – that is, if they win everyone else loses. I think asking a 13-player Town to deal with seven lynches is a bit much.

If there is only one Mafiate and no third party players, then unless Bill is that Mafiate, lynching him will mean we go to three-handed Mafia. In this case, lynching Bill now is very much settling for second best.

If there is one Mafiate and one third-party player, we pretty much have to assume that the third party is in a position to meet their wincon, so we have to lynch them to win. That means we can treat it as if there were two Mafiates, except that since they cannot be colluding offboard, they can't collude to switch their votes to the chosen candidate at the last minute. However, leaving an active third party alive risks them winning before Dawn Tomorrow. To guard against that, we'd need to lynch the third party Today.

In sumamry; lynching Bill now is the safe move. If Bill is anti-Town we cover ourselves against the sudden awakening of an enemy we've left at our backs, while we only lose situations we can't win and the sudden emergence of a third party meeting their wincon. I could support a Bill lynch, given that.

I will vote sometime tomorrow evening, after rereading.

[crys]

Originally Posted by Merestil Haye

Crys, belated happy birthday.

Thanksgiving is next week - I think.

I started to write a post and got caught by following the US Grand Prix. Now, back to work.

There are five of us left. it's somewhat disturbing to me to realise that I don't have much of a handle on any of you. I can't even remember if any of my early-game notes said anything about any of you (Chucara excepted - I'm almost certain he subbed in after my PC blew up.) So I'm going to have to reread between now and Monday evening.

Bill's disappearance does pose a problem. I could, in theory, be OK with stringing him up, but only if I felt that, on balance, Chucara, Crys and Scuba Ben were all Town, and thus Bill had to be the last Mafiate. The last time I found myself in this position, I was right - we lynched the very last Demon. (Town still lost the game though.)

There is a significant difference between this game and that though. The difference is that the player we lynched in that game was posting very infrequently, but was still active, whereas Bill appears to have gone altogether. That suggests to me that there is at least one active Mafiate.

The question of whether there are one or two active Mafia also needs to be considered when deciding when to lynch Bill.

If there are two active Mafiates (ie Bill is Town), then I don't think we can win unless Bill returns and starts voting. If we lynch Bill and he is Town, we've lost, but all we've done is to formalise the inevitable result. If, on the other hand, Bill is one of the Mafia, he needs to be lynched sooner or later, and killing him now will bring us to three-handed Mafia.

I've disregarded the possibility of third parties because I don't believe that there would be five Mafiates and two third party players to start. Third party players in this game are all (in our usual lexicon) PFKs – that is, if they win everyone else loses. I think asking a 13-player Town to deal with seven lynches is a bit much.

If there is only one Mafiate and no third party players, then unless Bill is that Mafiate, lynching him will mean we go to three-handed Mafia. In this case, lynching Bill now is very much settling for second best.

If there is one Mafiate and one third-party player, we pretty much have to assume that the third party is in a position to meet their wincon, so we have to lynch them to win. That means we can treat it as if there were two Mafiates, except that since they cannot be colluding offboard, they can't collude to switch their votes to the chosen candidate at the last minute. However, leaving an active third party alive risks them winning before Dawn Tomorrow. To guard against that, we'd need to lynch the third party Today.

In sumamry; lynching Bill now is the safe move. If Bill is anti-Town we cover ourselves against the sudden awakening of an enemy we've left at our backs, while we only lose situations we can't win and the sudden emergence of a third party meeting their wincon. I could support a Bill lynch, given that.

I will vote sometime tomorrow evening, after rereading.

Thank you

I have had some issue with both ben and chucara pinging me. And I basically have no read on you and bill so I don't know which way to turn atm.

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[Chucara]

Happy belated birthday crys!

As I see it, we have two options: vote for whoever is most likely to be scum (and still playing). For me, that is MHaye.

OR

Lynch Bill, then lynch the most likely candidate Tomorrow.

[Scuba Ben]

I thought about this some yesterday and this morning.

We have six cases, the combo of possible anti-Town players and whether BillMc is among them:

• Bill is Town
  • One Scum -- Find them and lynch them.
  • Two Scum -- Town has basically lost.
  • One Scum, one PFK -- They cannot coordinate, so we can find them and lynch them.
• Bill is not Town
  • One Scum -- Bill is playing dirty, with NK'ing people yet not active in the game room.
  • Two Scum -- Find the active Scum and lynch them.
  • One Scum, one PFK -- Find the active player and lynch them.

I conclude that it's not worth our time Today to lynch Bill. All we have to go on is that he has been MIA and DNV for a few Days, and played very quietely before that.

So in my opinion we need to go after an active player. Of you three, we lynch whoever we think is Scummiest and send on the mission whoever we think is Towniest. At the moment I'm leaning back towards sending Chucara on the mission, based on his position that he was after Squid for so long.

So:



And I'm going to place my lynch vote where my gut says to:


I really really don't like your post from yesterday, Merestil. It sticks in my craw.

[Chucara]

Thinking out loud here, trying to remember why I thought we had to lynch Bill Today.

Scenario A: (We lynch MHaye, Bill is only remaining scum)
Today +1: Bill, Chucara, Crys are alive (assuming scum kills Scuba) -> We lynch Bill and win

Scenario B: (We lynch MHaye, Bill and MHaye are scum)
Today +1: Bill, Chucara, Crys are alive. -> We lynch Bill and win

Scenario C: (We lynch MHaye, Bill and Crys are scum)
Today +1: Bill, Chucara, Crys are alive. -> We loose.

Scenario D: We lynch MHaye, Crys is only remaining scum)
Today +1: Bill (inactive), Chucara, Crys are alive. -> We loose

Scenario E: We lynch Bill, MHaye is only remaining scum
Today +1: MHaye, Chucara, Crys are alive. -> We lynch MHaye and win.

Scenario F: We lynch Bill, Crys is only remaining scum
Today +1: MHaye, Chucara, Crys are alive. -> We lynch MHaye and loose.

As it see it, it all boils down to how much we trust crys (or myself), rather than whether or not Bill is scum. If MHaye is scum and we still haven't won, we lynch Bill Tomorrow.

Unless Bill is some bizarre 3rd party with a 'don't post after D3' win condition, in which case, he wins.




If MHaye flips town, we should definitely lynch BillMc Tomorrow.

[Merestil Haye]

I came to a conclusion yesterday evening. I decided I wasn't going to win by conventional means. So, let's go heterodox and make the end of this game, at least, memorable for something other than missing players.

When I was young I played a lot of bridge. One of the things you learn is that in some hands, you can only win if the cards lie just so. When that happens, assume that the cards are where you need them and play to win.

When this game started, I learned not only that I was in a team, but that one of the great unwashed - the sixteen that were Not Us - there was one who was just waiting for us to reach out to them. Now, it's possible that the player in question was Lightfoot; she had some poison, and Wombat started with poison as well. Although that would make sense of Lightfoot's very difficult wincon, I don't believe that at a gut level, and I can't win if it is correct, so I'm proceeding as if it is not.

It's also possible that it's one of the five living players. If it is, and you're out there, we can still win.

All we have to do is vote with me to force a tie and play the numbers. If there's no lynch, then I'll take the recruiting action. (I have to try and kill you, but I have Word of Mod that you survive.) Tomorrow it's another Mexican standoff, then we get to kill one of the living Townies and win.

It's possible that both I and our chosen lynch candidate swing, in which case you're in better shape to come up with your third party wincon.

It's possible that Bill is the recruitable player, in which case there are three active Town and I've lost. It's also possible that Bill is Town in which case he might wake up and break up this last-ditch play. Again, I can't win.

Out of Chucara, crys or Scuba Ben, I know it's not Scuba. So, without further ado: -

.

[Chucara]

Well played, Sir. That just made the game quite interesting again..

Fortunately, I am not the recruitable player, so unless crys feels like joining you..

*looks at crys*

[KidVermicious]

Nice.

[Chucara]

Out of interest. And while we wait for the endgame, how did you know Scuba wasn't one of them? Did you already try to recruit him?

[crys]

Originally Posted by Chucara

Well played, Sir. That just made the game quite interesting again..

Fortunately, I am not the recruitable player, so unless crys feels like joining you..

*looks at crys*

I'm not recruitable either.

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[crys]

Originally Posted by crys

I'm not recruitable either.

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Well as far as I know I'm not.

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[crys]

Man I need to stop reading right when I wake up. I am a bit thick first thing in the morning.



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[Chucara]

Yay! (Unless crys is lying)

[crys]

Originally Posted by Chucara

Yay! (Unless crys is lying)

I'm not a liar lol I posted me pm like 3 times.



This is just in case you aren't lying and someone else is

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[Scuba Ben]

As far as I know I'm not recruitable.

But if the recruitable player is already Recruited, they'd say that no matter what.

Still, I agree Chucara has an interesting question in #29. How do you know it's not me?

[Scuba Ben]

Originally Posted by Merestil Haye

All we have to do is vote with me to force a tie and play the numbers. If there's no lynch, then I'll take the recruiting action. (I have to try and kill you, but I have Word of Mod that you survive.)

Ah, here's how he knows it's not me. As I understand it, if the Scum attack the Recruit, the Recruit survives and switches sides. Merestil has just admitted that:
1. Scum attacked me
2. Scum failed to recruit me

Merestil, do I read you correctly?

[Merestil Haye]

Originally Posted by Scuba Ben

Ah, here's how he knows it's not me. As I understand it, if the Scum attack the Recruit, the Recruit survives and switches sides. Merestil has just admitted that:
1. Scum attacked me
2. Scum failed to recruit me

Merestil, do I read you correctly?

That's a reasonable interpretation.

[Scuba Ben]

I now see two possibilities, assuming I understand you correctly about how recruitment works.

Case 1: I'm not it
Us Townies all vote for Merestil Haye, and eliminate the probable final Scum. Game over, or we lynch BillMc and try again.

Case 2: I'm it
Merestil and I change our votes at the last minute and take our chances. (He's presently voting for me.) Difficulty with this scenario: (1) I've repeatedly made it clear I am never around at Dusk. (2) It takes Tomorrow to another deadlock of either 2 v 2 actives or 1 v 1 actives; no way for Scum to win.

I'm sticking with case 1.

[Chucara]

Scuba: I fail to see the scenarios here. MHaye is admittedly scum, of course we should all vote MHaye.

The only chance this would end in a tie is if someone else is also scum, or if someone wants to buy in to the recruitment scheme. In either case, there is nothing we can do. Anyone not voting MHaye is scum or absent from the game.

[Scuba Ben]

I agree with you on what to do, Chucara. Therefore:

Originally Posted by Vote Counting Robot

Merestil Haye (3): Scuba Ben (24), Chucara(25), crys (32)
Billmc (0): Chucara (12-25)
Scuba Ben (1): Merestil Haye (26)

Edited for crys's and Chucara's votes

Voting History:
post #12: Chucara voted Billmc
post #24: Scuba Ben voted Merestil Haye
post #25: Chucara illegally voted All
post #25: Chucara illegally voted Merestil Haye
post #26: Merestil Haye voted Scuba Ben
post #32: crys voted Meristil Haye

Propose Hammer, even though the hammer is 4 and we only have 3 votes on M. Haye

[Chucara]

I second the hammer. Though it is not going to happen

[Red Skeezix]

The day ends in 5 minutes, that's when the night thread will go up.