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  #1  
Old 3rd January 2022, 04:42 PM
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  #2  
Old 3rd January 2022, 04:43 PM
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Meeko is town
  #3  
Old 6th January 2022, 07:57 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement View Post
Meeko is town
And no one said anything when I posted this.
  #4  
Old 6th January 2022, 08:06 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement View Post
Meeko is town
And no one said anything when I posted this.

I saw it.... But I still had a previous iteration of this hanging around. I told Prof he was correct, wondered if my opinion actually mattered on that point, and even heavily implied I had a breadcrumb, despite the contradictory nature it's assumed to be under.
  #5  
Old 3rd January 2022, 04:50 PM
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It's bugging me that ATP is asking no questions except to himself, and those he answers.
  #6  
Old 3rd January 2022, 04:59 PM
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IMHO, we should eliminate Scum. It'd be great if we could eliminate one team first, and then the other, to reduce NKs, but we haven't that kind of information.

If we do go to wrap a second present, I'd prefer it was Pleonast, even if he's on a different team that ACS.

I am going over all of Pizza's entries of toDay, along with everyone else's. I hope I'll have something of substance by tomorrow.
  #7  
Old 3rd January 2022, 06:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prof. Pepperwinkle View Post
IMHO, we should eliminate Scum. It'd be great if we could eliminate one team first, and then the other, to reduce NKs, but we haven't that kind of information.

If we do go to wrap a second present, I'd prefer it was Pleonast, even if he's on a different team that ACS.

I am going over all of Pizza's entries of toDay, along with everyone else's. I hope I'll have something of substance by tomorrow.
Hi, Prof, I am for eliminating scum, and I think ACS and Pleo are both scum.

But I am not 100% convinced ACS is scum. I know you think scum wouldn't waste a save on him just to mess with us. Probably they wouldn't. But...they might.

I am, however, 100% convinced that Pleonast is scum. Open scumming right here in the thread.

So my preference would be wrap Pleonast for sure, with a side of ACS if we can swing it.

I read Pizza's analysis of who's on whose scum team and this is something he knows how to do, and I don't. So it comes down a bit to trust. Something like: nobody has come in to save ACS so he's on the smaller scum team, the Mariahs. I hope I'm not naive, this sounds right to me, but I really don't know for sure.

I think we need to do some open towning and see if we can get a consensus of who will vote for whom.

Like, I will vote for Pleonast or ACS.

Let's see what others say.

And there ought to be some shenanigans I'm thinking.



This is a start. We've got 6 votes on ACS already, some of those might be willing to move. But at all costs we have to get one of Pleo and ACS.

Only counterwagon so far is askthepizzaguy. I'm hoping Jan will be willing to go back to ACS, she was willing at SoD and then I kinda derailed her.

Right now:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vote Counting Robot
Annoying Christmas Singer (6): Silverjan (3)[8], Prof. Pepperwinkle (14), Askthepizzaguy (19)[51], A Poor Shepherd Boy (42), Pleonast (43), Askthepizzaguy (71), Meeko (89), Bashorian Clement (97)
Askthepizzaguy (1): Vanta Black (4)[72], Silverjan (8), Meeko (54)[89]
Pleonast (0): Askthepizzaguy (53)[70]
  #8  
Old 3rd January 2022, 05:12 PM
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WR, Prof., thanks for answering that.
  #9  
Old 3rd January 2022, 06:17 PM
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On the fourth day of Christmas, Vanta gave to me
Four votes down
Three side eye glances
Two frozen birds
And a gallon of eggnog to drown me in
  #10  
Old 4th January 2022, 03:57 AM
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The vote counter link in the opening post was wrong, but has been fixed.

We have just over 2 days left in the Day.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vote Counting Robot
Annoying Christmas Singer (6): Silverjan (3)[8], Prof. Pepperwinkle (14), Askthepizzaguy (19)[51], A Poor Shepherd Boy (42), Pleonast (43), Askthepizzaguy (71), Meeko (89), Bashorian Clement (97)
Pleonast (1): Askthepizzaguy (53)[70], Vanta Black (109)
Askthepizzaguy (1): Vanta Black (4)[72], Silverjan (8), Meeko (54)[89]
Annoying Christmas Singer is set to be wrapped if nothing changes. No second wrap would happen if nothing changes right now.
  #11  
Old 4th January 2022, 04:21 AM
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I'll be curious to see how ACS votes, if he does.
  #12  
Old 4th January 2022, 06:39 AM
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Finally getting back to a more usual schedule.

It seems some players are not understanding the implications of the execution system.

On Day One, the teams were 13-3-3, with one execution available. If 7 town voted for a single player, scum by themselves would not be able to stop the execution of that player. Thus, town controlled that execution. This is the typical state of a typical mafia game.

On Day Two, the teams were 10-3-2, with three executions available, requiring votes of 5-5-2 to use them. If town split 5-5 between two players, those two players would be executed, with scum unable to stop them. Thus, town controlled those two executions. The third execution could not be controlled by town--we mechanically could not prevent scum from determining one execution.

Now on Day Three, the teams are 7-3-2, with two executions available, requiring votes of 4-4 to use them. With 7 town, we can control one execution, but not a second--a second execution requires scum cooperation.
  #13  
Old 4th January 2022, 06:40 AM
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I wish moderators provided up-to-date game state information. Hopefully this is correct:

1. Lightfoot -- Ordinary Mall Santa -- Killed Night One
2. Pleonast
3. A Poor Shepherd Boy
4. guiri gnarlycharlie
5. Prof. Pepperwinkle
6. Bashorian Clement
7. Archangel -- Mariah Carey Backup Doctor -- Executed Day One
8. Dizzymrslizzy -- Ordinary Mall Santa -- Killed Night Two
9. Meeko
10. raventhief -- Ordinary Mall Santa -- Killed Night Two
11. Vanta Black
12. Annoying Christmas Singer
13. Swammerdami -- Ordinary Mall Santa -- Killed Night One
14. Suburban Plankton
15. TheCatsMeow Askthepizzaguy
16. SilverJan
17. BillMc -- Ordinary Mall Santa -- Executed Day Two
18. Christmas Sock -- Ordinary Mall Santa -- Killed Night One
19. Mordenkainen
  #14  
Old 4th January 2022, 06:40 AM
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Living player claims and whatnot:

2. Pleonast -- claims not a Doctor
3. A Poor Shepherd Boy
4. gnarlycharlie
5. Prof. Pepperwinkle -- claims Cop, investigated Meeko is Town
6. Bashorian Clement
9. Meeko -- investigated as Town by Prof. Pepperwinkle
11. Vanta Black -- claims Vig, killed Christmas Sock, failed to kill Annoying Christmas Singer
12. Annoying Christmas Singer -- survived claimed Vig kill
14. Suburban Plankton -- AWOL
15. Askthepizzaguy
16. SilverJan
19. Mordenkainen
  #15  
Old 4th January 2022, 06:40 AM
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Best policy, despite some risks, is

1. Not execute any of Prof. Pepperwinkle, Meeko, Vanta Black.
2. Do execute Annoying Christmas Singer.
  #16  
Old 4th January 2022, 06:42 AM
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My leans

3. A Poor Shepherd Boy -- no good indications of alignment yet.
4. gnarlycharlie -- possible scum due to guiri's reaction to my fishing.
5. Prof. Pepperwinkle -- low risk of being scum since no counter-claim, but one AWOL player makes this risk higher than usual.
6. Bashorian Clement -- no good indications of alignment yet.
9. Meeko -- using info available to me and assuming P.P. is truthful, there's 2/7 (29%) of Meeko being Scum, 5/10 (50%) of other players not me or P.P.
11. Vanta Black -- some risk of being scum because of surviving Night and also there's an AWOL player. And their reaction to my fishing.
12. Annoying Christmas Singer -- likely Scum, especially because Scum are playing risk-averse (risk-taking Scum would've targeted claimed Cop or Vig).
14. Suburban Plankton -- lack of participation means lack of counter-claims is not as strong as would usually be.
15. Askthepizzaguy -- play seems to link them with Meeko.
16. SilverJan -- no good indications of alignment yet.
19. Mordenkainen -- no good indications of alignment yet.
  #17  
Old 4th January 2022, 09:19 AM
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The more I go over Pizza's arguments, the more I agree with Vanta that he does seem to be cuddlling. BUT, that may well be the exigencies of having little time and realizing he needs to follow, rather than lead.

I'm for taking this a step at a time. First we wrap ACS (and, if possible, Pleo), then we get more information (and possibly a Vig NK) toNight, and go on from there.

I have strong Town leans on Vanta and Meeko, and nobody else.
  #18  
Old 4th January 2022, 09:20 AM
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If this was just about any other game I'd be after Plankton for nonparticipation, but circumsntances don't warrant it.
  #19  
Old 4th January 2022, 09:28 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prof. Pepperwinkle View Post
If this was just about any other game I'd be after Plankton for nonparticipation, but circumsntances don't warrant it.
No they don't but perhaps warrants a vig kill. It looks as if scum have jumped onto the ACS bandwagon and I am a bit surprised that Vanta changed her mind about pizza and ACS but I have a strong feeling that pizza is scum. I wouldn't be surprised if scum did protect a Town player just to get him/her lynched but my feelings in this game have been up to maggots anyway. I don't think my vote is needed on ACS but I want on record that I think pizza is scum. I hope to hell ACS is scum because we cannot afford to fail this time.
  #20  
Old 4th January 2022, 10:03 AM
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Eliminating Suburban Plankton will have the side effect of increasing the confidence in the claims of Prof. Pepperwinkle and Vanta Black. But since they are likely Scum victims, I'm not sure it's worth it compared to targeting likely Scum.
  #21  
Old 4th January 2022, 10:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Silverjan View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prof. Pepperwinkle View Post
If this was just about any other game I'd be after Plankton for nonparticipation, but circumstances don't warrant it.
No they don't but perhaps warrants a vig kill. It looks as if scum have jumped onto the ACS bandwagon and I am a bit surprised that Vanta changed her mind about pizza and ACS but I have a strong feeling that pizza is scum. I wouldn't be surprised if scum did protect a Town player just to get him/her lynched but my feelings in this game have been up to maggots anyway. I don't think my vote is needed on ACS but I want on record that I think pizza is scum. I hope to hell ACS is scum because we cannot afford to fail this time.
I read this as you saying you do think ACS is scum (and have so voted, even though you removed it) and you also think pizza is scum.

What do you think about Pleo?

We're not wrapping pizza today, as I see it.

How about you switch your vote to Pleo, and if he gets wrapped and turns out not to be scum, I shoot pizza tonight?
  #22  
Old 4th January 2022, 03:18 PM
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Second night with no power. No heat. No fun.
  #23  
Old 4th January 2022, 10:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by A Poor Shepherd Boy View Post
Second night with no power. No heat. No fun.
Hope it gets better for you, sounds awful.
  #24  
Old 5th January 2022, 06:36 AM
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Let us begin with an oog issue.
Quote:
Originally Posted by A Poor Shepherd Boy View Post
Second night with no power. No heat. No fun.
Keep safe. I personally won't be voting you Today as I don't see how you can reasonably participate, and after having a week's zero participation in BYOM I fully sympathise.

Now, one game related issue before a longer-to-draft post.

ACS has, as far as I can remember, been present but has not participated. Their posts are nothing but a distraction; an annoying one at that.

I can see voting him into the gift-wrapper. In fact, let's do so.



Next up; Pleo.
  #25  
Old 4th January 2022, 10:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanta Black View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Silverjan View Post

No they don't but perhaps warrants a vig kill. It looks as if scum have jumped onto the ACS bandwagon and I am a bit surprised that Vanta changed her mind about pizza and ACS but I have a strong feeling that pizza is scum. I wouldn't be surprised if scum did protect a Town player just to get him/her lynched but my feelings in this game have been up to maggots anyway. I don't think my vote is needed on ACS but I want on record that I think pizza is scum. I hope to hell ACS is scum because we cannot afford to fail this time.
I read this as you saying you do think ACS is scum (and have so voted, even though you removed it) and you also think pizza is scum.

What do you think about Pleo?

We're not wrapping pizza today, as I see it.

How about you switch your vote to Pleo, and if he gets wrapped and turns out not to be scum, I shoot pizza tonight?
I do think that both ACS and pizza are scum. I'm not sure about Pleo though. I will think about it cos I really don't know. There are still 5 scum out there so that is a lot of them left.
  #26  
Old 5th January 2022, 06:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Silverjan View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanta Black View Post

I read this as you saying you do think ACS is scum (and have so voted, even though you removed it) and you also think pizza is scum.

What do you think about Pleo?

We're not wrapping pizza today, as I see it.

How about you switch your vote to Pleo, and if he gets wrapped and turns out not to be scum, I shoot pizza tonight?
I do think that both ACS and pizza are scum. I'm not sure about Pleo though. I will think about it cos I really don't know. There are still 5 scum out there so that is a lot of them left.
To continue the above analysis:

Note the noncommittal when Vanta Black asks Jan to assist with wrapping Pleonast.

Jan under pressure as scum wont actually cooperate and answer your solving questions directly.

Youve seen her not do that.

Note also, "both ACS and Pizza" is attempting to make it not matter where her vote is placed.

This is called clustering. I wrongly suspected Bashorian Clement in the Clowns game based on an instance of clustering, but he was town.

This is clustering where a scum is doing it, which is why i find it suspect.

Clustering is where you, as scum, put a list of 2, 3, 4 names and suggest they are all equivalent because they are all scummy or suspicious, without ranking them, without ordering them.

Suggesting it doesnt matter which one dies.

Which is part of the basis of my suspicion on billMc, which again I am using an example of where I was ultimately wrong about their alignment, but

I promise you the vast, vast, vast majority of those examples are a scumbag doing it. Thats why it is part of my process.

I have been taught over many many years that scumbags Cluster their suspects to make suspects seem equivalent.

BillMc wanted Dizzy to treat everyone on the Archangel wagon as equivalent. Thats too many names to all write off as they have to be town, they voted for scum in a multiball game.

Turns out, Billmc as town is capable of having thoughts like that.

That wont convince you that it is supicious because the most recent examples kinda blew up in my face.

But I know for sure one of those names is town, and I also know Jan treating me as guilty loses for town when she is town.

I also think to a very large degree, that the behavior of ACS after the night action which was a vigilante claim, Bashorian Clement, not a cop check, indicates that ACS is guilty but isnt ironclad proof.

Which is why I am solving for ACS' alignment before we pull the trigger, as it matters, as it is functionally MYLO.

Just in case you were wondering about that.
  #27  
Old 5th January 2022, 04:39 PM
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This is what I am reading as I go along, when I read the following post.

Note: This can read like sarcasm or mockery.

That is why communication via written text can be ambiguous. Its neither thing. This is what I am seeing as intentions when I see Jan commit to the following thoughts and positions, from my perspective.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Silverjan View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prof. Pepperwinkle View Post
If this was just about any other game I'd be after Plankton for nonparticipation, but circumsntances don't warrant it.
No they don't but perhaps warrants a vig kill.
"Use the town vig shot on a townie / non teammate scum of mine, tonight please, I do not have to care which."

Quote:
It looks as if scum have jumped onto the ACS bandwagon and I am a bit surprised that Vanta changed her mind about pizza and ACS but I have a strong feeling that pizza is scum.
"For random reasons, I conclude pizza is scum.

I am not worried in any way about being wrong, because I can afford to be wrong, because I am scum.

And anyone who is eliminated in this game who is not on my very small team advances my win conditions, so I do not have to care.

And even when every single townie has to vote together to advance town's win conditions, I am going to vote for a one-off in defiance of both of town's power role claimants, openly and deliberately dividing the vote, which means when my vote for pizza is wrong...

(and it is)

That provides the five scums outside of my body (because I am claiming to be town) with the crucial sixth vote for Pizzaguy, losing the game for town.

But I am totally unconcerned about this. Because I am scum, and there aren't five scumbags outside of my body, for I am Silverjan and I am scum.

If I am still voting for Pizza after the day concludes, I am lickity lock scum for being unconcerned with the situation, the dire circumstances town is in, or even voting united with the only people we can be most sure are town, not to mention, essentially lock scum from Pizza's perspective due to MYLO divided vote for a townie.

Same as Return of the Clowns Day Four. Same scenario, on repeat."

Quote:
I wouldn't be surprised if scum did protect a Town player just to get him/her lynched but my feelings in this game have been up to maggots anyway.
"Scum like to risk getting shot by opposing scum, and not only that, they love to protect a player of unknown alignment who is town by default for some reason."

Quote:
I don't think my vote is needed on ACS but I want on record that I think pizza is scum. I hope to hell ACS is scum because we cannot afford to fail this time.'
"I hope ACS is scum.

I will not vote for the player I think is scum."



So that is what I am hearing in my mind when I am reading that post.

That's what it sounds like to me, because I am pizza and I hold the pizzaguy card which says Mall Santa on it, in a MYLO voting situation where Jan decided I was scum after I logged off in the previous day, exactly the same way Vanta Black did in Return of the Clowns on Day Four when I was dogpiled by scum after I logged off in the day phase.

The blatant display of not voting with town and voting for a townie here indicates to me that Silverjan is absolutely signalling to the opposing scum team that she can reliably be counted on to vote against town if they do so as well today.

Can this be wrong? Of course. Can Jan simply be incorrect? Uh huh. Can she have stuck up for a vulnerable but turned out to be scum archangel despite not being on AA team? Sure, that's not hard to explain from a day one townie. Would I be forced to evaluate her on those terms if she bothered to ever vote with town and for a scum at any point? Absolutely.

Do I need to do so under these circumstances? Or can I do so, is the point?

I cannot do so. To do so is gambling the game on someone openly siding with scum all game long without fail, who has no sense of urgency, no sense of danger, no desire to solve, no case work, no suspects outside of pizza which is incorrect, in a situation where, like Return of the Clowns Day Five, she literally needs to have more than one suspect at a time or she is not town at all, and still failed to produce multiple suspects of her own or vote with town.

So I don't need to continue putting mental processing power into Jan's alignment. That's a dead end for me (personally). Others have to continue to evaluate her, but if she is town, the game is already over for town, more or less.

I could invest more time into Jan's alignment than this, but due to a lack of overall time, and these specific circumstances, that cannot be anything but a time sink.

Each one of the yeets and vigs remaining have to be on a scumbag, because town is in that position.

And, again, like Return of the Clowns Day Four, I would rather be voting with other scums on a scumbag, than with a townie on a townie.

In the event something absolutely silly like a lack of coordination between teams occurs, or within teams, and the scums are caught voting divided, and town votes united in a manner that doesn't lose, then it once again matters what Jan's alignment is.

Until then, I actually have to proceed with the game as though I know Silverjan is scum aligned, even when I do not actually know that for a fact.

Which is a real shame when that's not the case, but the choice isn't really up to me anymore. And I am explaining why. And those reasons might not make total sense to someone if they play the game really casually and for funsies and don't have that sense of urgency or minding of the tally, which is a thing that has already happened in the previous day phase, meaning, townies voting willy nilly and in a manner that cant even cause a yeet even if they were correct.

Why I wrote this post despite the massive danger it doesnt get understood or read correctly: Because it is important to be absolutely open and honest and communicate as clearly as possible in this exact situation.

That way, if and when Jan is somehow town, there is that one percent chance the game isn't thrown away today. Because I have to think about that scenario, because I don't have the luxury of not considering that scenario and trying to path out a victory for town in that scenario. I have to try to win the game for town even when that happened to be the case, and that would be a win that would be snatched not from the jaws of defeat, but the lower intestines.

I have done it before, but not completely. I did reverse at LYLO on two players I thought were town and two players I thought were scum and had them exactly the opposite, but I didn't do it completely. I only got halfway there in time.

That's really hard for town to ever do. It's nearly impossible.

If Swammerdami wasn't super duper lock town to me in ROTC by Day Four, his vote there for me would have sealed town into a loss. Thankfully it was MYLO and scums didn't vote united.

Here, something similar may be happening so I thought about it. Spent a good 20 minutes thinking on it and typing it out, time I really needed to solve everyone else, just to make sure I wasn't overlooking the Jan is town scenario.

You lock a townie as scum here and town loses no matter how many other guesses are correct. That's burned my ass a jillion times already and ruined otherwise incredible games and 100 hour efforts by me, and I learned that lesson and wrote pages about it as literal lessons elsewhere.

If you fill in a sudoku incorrectly with a single number, in permanent ink, the puzzle cannot ever be completed properly. Right now, Jan is marking down my name incorrectly in permanent ink.

And I am checking her carefully and my only conclusion has to be that she is doing it deliberately, considering everything else she is doing and has done.

Can a townie look exactly like they are doing all that deliberately? Yes.

Can I afford to think that way after end of day today? That's Jan's deadline for looking anything like a villager in any way shape or form. After that, no, I have to close off that universe forever.
  #28  
Old 5th January 2022, 06:19 AM
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In the hopes of taking out two Scum with one election.
  #29  
Old 5th January 2022, 06:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vote Counting Robot
Annoying Christmas Singer (5): Silverjan (3)[8], Prof. Pepperwinkle (14)[129], Askthepizzaguy (19)[51], A Poor Shepherd Boy (42), Pleonast (43), Askthepizzaguy (71), Meeko (89), Bashorian Clement (97)
Pleonast (2): Askthepizzaguy (53)[70], Vanta Black (109), Prof. Pepperwinkle (129)
Askthepizzaguy (1): Vanta Black (4)[72], Silverjan (8), Meeko (54)[89]
Day ends in 27+ hours or so. Annoying Christmas Singer is set to be wrapped if nothing changes and no second wrapping would happen if nothing changes.
  #30  
Old 5th January 2022, 04:18 PM
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  #31  
Old 5th January 2022, 04:48 PM
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Gnarlycharlie should have seen the mention tag and placed a vote.

Not voting under these circumstances is not acceptable, literally every townie needs to place a vote and in a united fashion today.

Again, sense of danger, minding the tally, and sense of urgency. All of those things are needed for town at MYLO and LYLO and hopefully on every day before that.

I had a large case I am still leaning that Guiri/Gnarly is town. Not voting today weighs incredibly hard against such a case. You have to place a vote.
  #32  
Old 5th January 2022, 04:51 PM
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On the fifth day of Christmas, Vanta gave to me
FIVE GOLDEN POTATOES
Four votes down
Three side eye glances
Two frozen birds
And a gallon of eggnog to drown me in
  #33  
Old 5th January 2022, 04:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Annoying Christmas Singer View Post
On the fifth day of Christmas, Vanta gave to me
FIVE GOLDEN POTATOES
Four votes down
Three side eye glances
Two frozen birds
And a gallon of eggnog to drown me in



While I am busy, I am posting to note this post existed.
  #34  
Old 5th January 2022, 04:59 PM
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Dizzymrslizzy is subbing in for A Poor Shepherd Boy.

I am still not doing substitutions, but as you all have seen, Poor Shepherd has difficult circumstances and I decided to go ahead and make the substitution this time as well.
  #35  
Old 5th January 2022, 06:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Annoying Christmas Singer View Post
On the fifth day of Christmas, Vanta gave to me
FIVE GOLDEN POTATOES
Four votes down
Three side eye glances
Two frozen birds
And a gallon of eggnog to drown me in



While I am busy, I am posting to note this post existed.
I waited.

A townie does anything here to assist with the solve, sock or not, roleplay or not.
  #36  
Old 5th January 2022, 04:53 PM
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I marked down Pleonast as openly scumming, and he is en prise today. If that's wrong I have to see it before it is too late.

I didnt get a chance to reevaluate Bill yesterday or even hear a defense. At least here I got to see Pleonast react to being accused and seeing what he did.

Thoughts on that. I have to shake my brain like an etch a sketch because confirmation bias is huge.
  #37  
Old 5th January 2022, 05:09 PM
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Well well, so nice to be back from my premature death….

So I actually have been somewhat reading today.

I agree singer dude needs to go, and I see my current vote is there. I’m good with that, although as I said last night, there’s a whole slammin load of wine that goes along with that. One scum team could have set up singer dude to look guilty as hell. I didn’t really think this through because I didn’t need to make decisions on this as a spectator.

Pleo, I think is just being Pleo

Pizza worries me. I think he’s being scummy controlling this game vs Townie helping. He snuggled dead me and Meeko a bit much to my liking.
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  #38  
Old 5th January 2022, 05:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Dizzymrslizzy View Post
Pizza worries me. I think he’s being scummy controlling this game vs Townie helping. He snuggled dead me and Meeko a bit much to my liking.
Imagine a near decade of not getting your alignment right or ever being a very good town partner for you, and then absolutely nailing that alignment right from the start based on finally being able to read you, coupled with having any idea at all how to read Meeko to begin with.

It took a lot of observation with me not in games and Meeko in games to feel confident there.

As for snuggle, I can see that. My affection for both of you as people combined with my extreme sense you were town in a setup where its hard to know where to start looking for townies.

Look to the Return of the Clowns game, specifically how I felt about Mahaloth.

He was already dead by the time I had subbed in.

I was still gushing over how townie he looked to me, which was an aberration. I never can read Mahaloth. But in the quicktopic where I was solving the game as a spectator, all I could do was rave about how townie the dude looked to me for the first time in forever.

Then he died and flipped town and one of my first thoughts was to gush to him during and then after the game how townie he was.

The excitement of getting a guess you feel confident on, when the person is otherwise extremely difficult for me to get there on, is extreme.

That can look like snuggling. Absolutely.
  #39  
Old 5th January 2022, 05:50 PM
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You will also see me getting into a groove of being able to read Raventhief town.

Pleonast game, day one, with the multiple threads, and this game.

I noted for the record, man, that's easy as hell to fake when you are scum. You don't have to hit any kind of bar like I was just referring to in post 147.

A player like that isn't usually hitting obvious "I am behaving like a townie does" hurdles.

Those players are very very difficult for me to read based on tells or behaving like a townie. Scum tells, also difficult to produce, because they have to be doing team actions. In other words, moves that assist the team during day as opposed to night.

It is otherwise a perfect "cloak", referring to star trek klingon/romulan cloaking device as a metaphor.

Raven can do a performance exactly like Pleonast experimental, and exactly like Day One and Day Two of this game, every game, and it will look functionally identical.

Knowing that I base my read on Raven on motion, basically. She was immobile all game, therefore she was town.

And I don't mean mechanically. I mean, she didn't do anything that indicated to me she was trying to "look town". Because she doesnt look town when she is town. All the way back to the Colby11 game where I roleplayed Bowser. Same deal. three games, same behaviors. She doesnt look town like normal townies behave, ever.

For her, not hurdling is normal.

Is that something I can be confident on?

No, but I didn't think she would play against that type of analysis as I hadnt revealed my method of reading her until this post.

Its worthless in future games, but here, I was happy to put Raven above a lot of names on my leans lists yesterday, because even though she hadnt done anything, she still looked more like her villager self than all of those other names.

That's a lot of weight assigned to a read of a player which is a method of solving a player I consider very high risk. Meta is garbage. It's weak, specifically. There is nothing weaker than meta.

If you know your meta you can play against it. I feel Raven's meta is the easiest meta to play against when she is a wolf.

But I also think Raven would behave like a team player when she is a wolf, meaning, she would visibly have committed a "scum move" by day two if she was a wolf in this setup.

Its important for each member of the small teams to bring value and benefit to their wolf pack.

She wasnt really doing that, or gaining town credits, thread control, directing traffic, any of it.

Risky call. Very risky call.

But it was one I felt confident making despite the otherwise dearth of information you could glean from her posts on cold read.

I think Raven would bring value to her wolf pack by doing something by end of day two.

Thats complicated by the fact that she doesnt have to if theyre not under pressure and it was the holidays.

Thats a very very gut check read. Why my confidence on that read was low, whereas day one of Pleonast experimental game, the read started high and weakened when she did nothing, and dithered on making reads or decisions, and ultimately called my alignment wrong.

Here, she did the same thing, up to and including the last bit, which happened after I made a read on her.

Its all normal for Raven.

Meeko being suspect of me, yeah. We're essentially aliens. I am speaking gookachuckajoob and he's speaking argle bargle. We both look bizarre to everyone else in the game and to each other. Our thought processes are so foreign from one another that it is confusing and misleading. Basic communication is hard.

Dizzy, well.... as for your previous incarnation of yourself:

I do note that you tend to base your alignment reads of people based on how much they agree with you and your reads and how townie they say you are. Either that, or it is an incredible coincidence.

But that is baseline for you. And you were doing all of that. And you had multiple suspects and not behaving differently from who you normally are when, it is multiball, and a change of strategy is indicated over a standard scum versus town game.

Its a completely different beast and you were the same Dizzy Ive always known.

That means you were, like Raven, not making any telltale "team moves" that assist the scum.

You can have an excellent cloak by not making any team moves.

But I gamble when it comes to you or Raven or Meeko that if you are scum, you are a team player and dont go 100 percent cloak.

You would more value the strength of working as a wolf pack rather than maintaining cloak perfectly and being a loner that otherwise doesnt assist your team in its goals.

I think that value applies to most players, in fact.

Its why, when all my other solving processes come back with huge question marks and I have no farking ideas, I look for team behaviors and compare it to meta.

You can find team behaviors in almost anything, because you dont know the team, so you dont know what specifically benefits them at the time.

It doesnt benefit scum Dizzy to yeet scum BillMc yesterday and attract the ire of opposing scum.

That's why i town read you, because I scum read Bill.

Absent scumtells, which you hit all the time as town, absent other extensively time intensive processes, I go to meta which is weak and looking for the existence of telltale team behaviors, which is weak because I lack info.

Thats much stronger when, like Day Four and Five of Return of the Clowns, I had other suspects strongly nailed down.

Then reading their behavior all game and finding "team behavior" in another player is much much much stronger.

Its far weaker here, but thats what I had, and thats the methods I used to town read you, when all other solving processes fail me, and I am squished for time.
  #40  
Old 5th January 2022, 06:13 PM
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Because ACS is not hitting that bar,

That very very basic bar, of voting to self preserve, voting for a single suspect, even voting the same suspect as previous days,

I take that inaction as confession of being scum.

That is completely fair, and it matches what probably happened mechanically last night, a scum protected a scum.

That's how I intended to read ACS today, despite mechanical info he was probably scum.

This is exactly the same as a confession.

When it is not accurate, that means the player playing the sock is either playing on a level of casual that falls under "too casual to ever assist the team with the win, even when it is as obvious as making any guess whatsoever"

Which is not a bash, just a fact

That's not really something I can cry about in postgame.

I always blame me for my wrong guesses. Even when someone looks, to my eyes, exactly like scum, its no one else's fault where I vote.

But in this scenario, as it is MYLO conditions, and the player has provably voted for suspects before today, I take the inaction as confession and what is called "anti spew".

This person if playing well for scums wont place a vote that tips off town as to information that could assist with the solve, they will place a scummy last minute vote to assist scums if one exists. Otherwise, they can help their team more by being silent.

There is an actual essay in my guide about "shaddap shutting up you rabbit" when you are caught scum. Thats the best move. The only other move is the snipe, or pretending to snipe.

Currently ACS is in antispew and prepared to snipe. Town has to make sure it doesnt vote for town today because ACS can last minute snipe.

This is similar to how I am reading Jan today because her behavior matches how she solves or doesnt pretend to solve as scum in previous games, and simply votes for the townie she intends to misyeet without subterfuge.

And because shes voting a townie in MYLO and doesnt seem concerned about being wrong, which indicates she knows she can win this way.
  #41  
Old 5th January 2022, 07:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy View Post
Because ACS is not hitting that bar,

That very very basic bar, of voting to self preserve, voting for a single suspect, even voting the same suspect as previous days,

I take that inaction as confession of being scum.

That is completely fair, and it matches what probably happened mechanically last night, a scum protected a scum.

That's how I intended to read ACS today, despite mechanical info he was probably scum.

This is exactly the same as a confession.

When it is not accurate, that means the player playing the sock is either playing on a level of casual that falls under "too casual to ever assist the team with the win, even when it is as obvious as making any guess whatsoever"

Which is not a bash, just a fact

That's not really something I can cry about in postgame.

I always blame me for my wrong guesses. Even when someone looks, to my eyes, exactly like scum, its no one else's fault where I vote.

But in this scenario, as it is MYLO conditions, and the player has provably voted for suspects before today, I take the inaction as confession and what is called "anti spew".

This person if playing well for scums wont place a vote that tips off town as to information that could assist with the solve, they will place a scummy last minute vote to assist scums if one exists. Otherwise, they can help their team more by being silent.

There is an actual essay in my guide about "shaddap shutting up you rabbit" when you are caught scum. Thats the best move. The only other move is the snipe, or pretending to snipe.

Currently ACS is in antispew and prepared to snipe. Town has to make sure it doesnt vote for town today because ACS can last minute snipe.

This is similar to how I am reading Jan today because her behavior matches how she solves or doesnt pretend to solve as scum in previous games, and simply votes for the townie she intends to misyeet without subterfuge.

And because shes voting a townie in MYLO and doesnt seem concerned about being wrong, which indicates she knows she can win this way.
But here is the problem with your idea- is that there are TWO SCUM TEAMS, not one.

But these statements here, screams PERFECT INFORMATION SYNDROME. Or is it just me?

And secondly- the scum teams don’t win together, they are separate entities in this game. Town still has the numbers (and is not in a MYLO situation yet).

No, you are drumming up dramatics. Like a Little Drummer Boy…
  #42  
Old 5th January 2022, 07:12 PM
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Ai, pizza is back!

A couple of requests.

There is no point of confirming your reads of townDizzy of yesteryear, she's in a different slot now, it's confusing. It kind of puts a halo on Dizzy that she might not deserve this time around.

Could you please not mention that Return of the whatever it was, ugh.

I DO NOT AGREE that I looked scummy on D1. WTF. Who thought that? I don't even think the people who voted for me thought that. Also, do not explain. (You can explain later I guess but it would be a distraction.
  #43  
Old 5th January 2022, 07:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Vanta Black View Post
Ai, pizza is back!

A couple of requests.

There is no point of confirming your reads of townDizzy of yesteryear, she's in a different slot now, it's confusing. It kind of puts a halo on Dizzy that she might not deserve this time around.

Could you please not mention that Return of the whatever it was, ugh.

I DO NOT AGREE that I looked scummy on D1. WTF. Who thought that? I don't even think the people who voted for me thought that. Also, do not explain. (You can explain later I guess but it would be a distraction.
To be clear, I suspect her slot as much as I suspected the person she replaced.

She is currently suspect number five of five.

Others can replace her, if I am ever convinced she is town.

Right now, I am about to lock in the other 4 as always scum and call it a day.

I am sorting between Mord and GuiriGnarly and Plankton and Dizzy right now.

Those are the only names I consider in play.

I have said extensively why I think Mord is town, although the reasons are thin, they are a stronger lean. Potent.

Gnarly slot, thats a much longer case, and fairly strong, but he isnt helping us win today.

Plankton is AWOL and if scum, can be shot when you shoot a different scum tonight, because that puts us out of MYLO I think.

I have no reason to consider him town and he is exactly null.

APSB I at least had a case against. And he isnt behaving like he did as town.

Thats not a lock, its just where I am at.

That can move.

I need reasons to move it. Reasons I actually believe.
  #44  
Old 5th January 2022, 06:20 PM
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To Pepperwinkle:

I have my guesses but I am always continually factoring in gravity over time.

Stuff like what Jan is doing today and what ACS is doing right now, act as a strong gravitational pull, for the reasons I stated explicitly just now.

That gravity pulls them down even below other people I think are scum or have cased as scum, like APSB.

A poor shepherd boy, I think is often scum by cold read. But my cold reads are wrong more than once a game.

Whats less often wrong is that type of gravity well.

You can clearly and logically understand why that kind of gravity pull I consider superior to even my own analysis and cold read.

Dizzy, her slot, APSB, currently still is strongly suspect to me.

But that can change, due to gravity.

Others can pull below that slot. That slot can, like Vanta, suddenly appear townie.

The game isnt over until it is. Gravity affects players over time, as gravity is the interaction between spacetime and matter, so to speak.

In a mafia game, the material of the player slot is affected by gravity over time, and time is very very much not on the side of either Jan or Annoying christmas Singer.

They would have to rapidly convincingly look townie to me before end of day, otherwise both of them collapse into a black hole where there is no escape.

Vanta Black did a supernova. Looked scummy, collapsed a bit, but no black hole. Instead, spread all over the place, and is now raining platinum from the heavens.

Big difference. Gravity sometimes can cause explosion instead of implosion.

Ive been waiting for my other scum suspects to explode and look townie, rather than implode.

Players like Vanta, even without the claim, would be exploding today, and players like Jan and ACS are imploding on their own, due to that gravity.

That should help you explain how my leans lists operate in every game I play as town for the past every single time youve ever seen me play, all the way back to before my five year hiatus.
  #45  
Old 5th January 2022, 06:24 PM
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Meeko is behaving like a noble gas today and is floating above everyone else by cold read.

Gravity is affecting Meeko, but everyone else is being pulled downward because Meeko's heart and mind are both light as a feather, and he is voting for a scumbag right now, and is unlikely to not be voting for a scumbag at end of day.

I dont know about Meeko's judgment. its a guessing game. I have bad judgment. I guess wrong.

But his heart and mind are both helium balloons. He is floating as high as he can, and that position cannot reverse even if he ever votes incorrectly.

Only the hydgrogen balloon of Pepperwinkle floats higher.
  #46  
Old 5th January 2022, 06:26 PM
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Why expend all that effort on a guilty?
  #47  
Old 5th January 2022, 06:27 PM
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The gotcha post on ACS and the subsequent post regarding ACS are lost on me. Busywork. Prof. has a guilty. No one has CC's Prof. We go with the guilty.
  #48  
Old 5th January 2022, 06:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement View Post
The gotcha post on ACS and the subsequent post regarding ACS are lost on me. Busywork. Prof. has a guilty. No one has CC's Prof. We go with the guilty.
You seem to be gravely mistaken about which townie nailed ACS.

A bizarre mistake to make if one is solving the game legitimately.
  #49  
Old 5th January 2022, 06:29 PM
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And reading Dizzy as if that isn't the APSB slot. Granted, that may have been missed, but ATP doesn't miss things.
  #50  
Old 5th January 2022, 06:31 PM
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If we can manage a second wrap today, I'd prefer it be ATP rather than Pleonast.
 


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