Yeetmas 3 - Day 5 The party is emptying, but the drinks are still flowing!

[Askthepizzaguy]

[Askthepizzaguy]

[Mordenkainen]

Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy

My issue is that when Bashorian Clement outed yesterday, you said nothing about it and said your two suspects were me and Pleonast, both incorrect. You've never suggested voting for gnarlycharlie all game. I just checked all your posts since the game began.

You're correct here.

I said nothing about BC because even then I had doubts about you, and wasn't sure whether you were driving at him for nefarious reasons.

As foir gnarlycharlie, he flew under my radar until I looked at the roster just now and saw he pretty much had to be Mafiate (again, unless SP is which I very much doubt.) I had no suspicion of him until Today so I didn't advocate voting for him.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I went over the contingencies here, in case of a catastrophic error on my part, where the solve looks like it lines up and that's what it looks like but it's not the case.

Assuming you were town, and there's some alternative solution to the game I didn't go over, that would force the solution to be one of Meeko or Plankton.

Gnarly probably is guilty, and that's why a missing murder happened, and Mariah faction probably shot him thinking he is the town doctor on the same night I felt it was Jan most likely and doubted Pleonast when he claimed that role.

Removing Gnarly from the game means there is just one murder in play. That murder cannot hit Vanta Black because he is protected.

That means Vanta has a free shot on a suspect tonight, and there is just 1 scum remaining. Vanta hits the remaining scum a lot, unless that scum were Plankton or Meeko.

If it is a correct shot it ends the game, so you assume it is incorrect, that means there are 3 townies alive tomorrow, one of them being Vanta black.

Even if one of the townies is Plankton, 2 townies agree to yeet any person they can get 2 votes for. The lone scum cannot outvote them.

Vanta still gets to shoot again, eliminating the remaining person.


Day Five

Askthepizzaguy
gnarlycharlie- kill today.
Meeko
Mordenkainen
SilverJan
Suburban Plankton
Vanta Black

Night Five

Askthepizzaguy Vanta Black shoots me.
Meeko
Mordenkainen
SilverJan- is the likely shot by remaining scum.
Suburban Plankton
Vanta Black

Day Six

Meeko votes for Mordenkainen
Mordenkainen
Suburban Plankton
Vanta Black votes for Mordenkainen

Night Six

Vanta Black shoots Meeko.

Suburban Plankton wins the game, defeating town, if he is the Mariah Carey Faction Godfather only, because APSB called for him to be vigged, meaning, he's not likely to be Elf Shelf. Otherwise town just wins when he is town.

Because of my analysis of the game to this point, I severely doubt Plankton is the Mariah faction Godfather remaining. Because of that, I am absolutely willing to gamble the game on Plankton just being an inactive townie and would consent to this POE order.

[Vanta Black]

Originally Posted by Silverjan

We can still win if we are wrong, why drag out this agony

Silverjan I am not sure we can still win if we are wrong, and I have a deadline, I have to get this stuff done before I can really sit down and do the math.

Oh boy.

So let's say we ax Mord and he's town. In that case there are still two scum left who can kill two of us. Bang bang. Sure, gnarly is not around and Plankton is not around, but people have been absent for weeks in smoe games and then come back, you've seen it.

So at that point the two teams kill you and possibly one of town or one of each other. (Sorry, I am writing this fast.) Let's say Meeko and he is town. And I vig pizza, who gave me permission t do this on D5. That leaves...two people who are playing, one of whom could be scum.

What I'm thinking is that leaves possibly two town and two scum, one from each faction.

You are probably right, probably we can win anyway. I just don't think it's as slam-dunk as pizza says. you know i have a tendency to overcomplicate things.

If the two scum are Mord and gnarly i can see the value in chopping Mord today in the hopes that, as I suspected and pt forth, Gnarly is just gone.

I just need a bit to think about it. Just suddenly moved really fast, and I should not even be typing this I should be working, I'm on deadline!

[Vanta Black]

I have to agree that if this kind of behavior by Suburban Plankton or anyone wins a game then the game is broken.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If you vote for Gnarlycharlie today you can get Gnarly, myself, and Meeko dead.

But you will also die.

[Vanta Black]

*Vanta goes back to work, distracted as hell*

[Askthepizzaguy]

Originally Posted by Vanta Black

I have to agree that if this kind of behavior by Suburban Plankton or anyone wins a game then the game is broken.

If it's deliberate behavior from him then it sucks that he chose to play the game that way.

I am so inclined to believe he is just town I am willing to straight up lose to him here, and would ask you to never vig him.

I also really don't think it is meeko but it would have to be one of Meeko or SP if either one of gnarly or Mord were town.

I can't explain the night kills at all when either of them are town.

This kill order ensures you still have a shot at killing someone who isn't named me or Mord as long as we are correct and gnarly is guilty, because there is a viable Day 6.

It also removes Gnarly who is not voting to help town during Day, and my analysis says he is always scum, which boxes me in if I were scum.

I also have no idea why I wouldn't have shot Jan, this just gives town an extra kill power and an extra Day, makes Day 6 viable.

I am not that bad at the game.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I think it shouldn't matter the order we go in, Mord or Gnarly, I think both flip scum.

If it did matter, this does prevent Gnarly from ever shooting, and he isn't voting. He is far, far more likely to be guilty than Plankton.

[Askthepizzaguy]

This is me doing my job and entertaining the notion, like I did with Pleonast yesterday.

Here, you get 4 deaths of your choosing rather than 3, because it should always remove a scum kill. One that's already been removed, in my estimation. He can't come back.

[Mordenkainen]

Night 1; 3 wraps available, 3 wraps occurred. Both teams and Vig active.

Night 2; 3 wraps available, 2 wraps occurred. We know that the missing kill was ACS from post D03.062 so the likelihood is that his Family's Doc protected him and not the Godfather that Night.

Night 3; 3 wraps available, 1 wrap occurred. We know that Vanta shot Dizzy.from post D04.005.Why only one kill? There are several plausible suggestions, including that the Mariah Family shot Dizzy or that both teams shot the protected power role from <Prof P.|VB>. Maybe one of the teams failed to submit a kill - and that's not totally absurd, as in one of the Conspiracy games (C3, IIRC) a SK failed to submit a kill, so a team certainly can. Still very unliklely though.

Night 4;3 wraps available, 2 wraps occurred. Again, from post 3 we know VB wrapped BC. This is the first Night in which a Mafia Family had only one player, therefore it is the first that a Family might fail to take a kill because their sole remaining player was inactive. Just the same, there are plausible explanations for the missing wrap; that both Families shot at VB who was protected, that both Families shot at PP who was not protected, that one Family shot at PP and one at VB, or that Family SE shot at BC to eliminate a Mariah Family member. It's really not necessary to hypothesise an AWOL Family SE survivor.

Hope that helps; it does not help me much.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I can make your solve really simple, Mord.

When you are town voting for Gnarlycharlie gets me vigged tonight when Gnarlycharlie flips town, and Vanta is alive to vig Meeko the next night.

The cost is that you also die on Day 6, when Meeko and Vanta vote for you. You have to accept that cost to proceed.

The end result is all of Gnarly, Mordenkainen, Askthepizzaguy, and Meeko are dead.

Unless you knew for sure Plankton was town and keeping him alive loses the game, you could accept those terms right now.

The caveat is that when Gnarly flips scum, you get shot tonight.

I then die the next day when you are town.

And then Meeko gets shot N6.

Do you agree?

[Askthepizzaguy]

When you agree, vote for Gnarlycharlie and we proceed to Night.

[Mordenkainen]

@Askthepizzaguy

Are you on Invisible mode here?
I am, which is why my last activity is (or should be) hidden from everyone bar Admins and global Mods. We're both Forum Mods, so it's not that. Of course you might be able to see me since this is your forum but not mine.

I know the last activity dates for both SP and Gnarly (8th Jan), so they aren't hiding.

Incidentally this amends my last Night's missing Wrap analysis; if Gnarly was inactive (which doesn't mean he could not have submitted the kill via offboard chat) he didn't PM Mahaloth his action last Night.

[Mordenkainen]

Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy

When you agree, vote for Gnarlycharlie and we proceed to Night.

I was thinking about this anyway, as I think Gnarly is more likely to be Mafia than you (or Meeko).

[Mordenkainen]

The count is now

Originally Posted by Vote Counting Robot

Mordenkainen (2): Askthepizzaguy (9)[51], Silverjan (17), Vanta Black (18)[40], Meeko (21)
Gnarlycharlie (2): Askthepizzaguy (52), Mordenkainen (66)
Askthepizzaguy (0): Mordenkainen (28)[66]

We need another change to get me out of this wrapping. I can wait.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Originally Posted by Mordenkainen

@Askthepizzaguy

Are you on Invisible mode here?
I am, which is why my last activity is (or should be) hidden from everyone bar Admins and global Mods. We're both Forum Mods, so it's not that. Of course you might be able to see me since this is your forum but not mine.

I know the last activity dates for both SP and Gnarly (8th Jan), so they aren't hiding.

Incidentally this amends my last Night's missing Wrap analysis; if Gnarly was inactive (which doesn't mean he could not have submitted the kill via offboard chat) he didn't PM Mahaloth his action last Night.

Yes, I always use invisible mode during games, primarily because I already spend literally 8 hours at a time in the thread talking and solving, eating into my sleep time, and then I am still staring at the game because I am compulsive even after that, while lying in bed. Stressed out and unable to think about anything else and unable to stop thinking about the game. If people were to see that activity, they would suspect me, for normal behavior from me, and it would prompt me to have to respond, dragging me back into the discussion when I should be sleeping. And I don't have the impulse control not to respond. It's severely unhealthy for my real life and that's why I am retired, I don't sign up to games anymore, this game badly needed at least one sub, I could tell from the sidelines.

I also cannot see anything when other players use invisible mode, I would guess you have to have higher permissions than mine to see through that.

I am factoring into my analysis the idea that Plankton could be submitting kills to Mahaloth off-board. Even so, I can't explain why so many suspicious people wanted him vigged.

He would have to be Mariah, and Gnarly would have to flip Elf here, since both Gnarly and APSB (and yourself) all called for Suburban Plankton to be a vig target.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Even in that scenario, Gnarly is still the correct wrap.

I just won't be able to see it this game. At least it kills off Elf faction. Someone better than me at the game has to decide he is scum if he is, because I am just not convinced.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If Meeko is just glorious then he gets to watch us die, and laugh, and rub his racoon hands together malevolently.

But the dude earned it. I read him over and over and he didn't read scum to me.

I would never vote for Meeko this game. I need to see a townie flip inside of Gnarly or Mord for me to ever recommend it, and that recommendation wouldn't be listened to unless I was dead and town.

Thus the order of operations.

[Vanta Black]

On the record here that I thought a shorter 48-hour deadline was fine but I think a 24-hour deadline is too short.

For me anyway, who had adjusted my head to the other deadline, and I have a deadline thing, can't do anything until the deadline is approaching. Hence my need to be working today, tra-la-la.

But if that's how it goes, then okay. We need to wrap a scum here. I cannot think of my night order till I see the flip, hopefully of a scum.

I wanted a little more time because we have players in multiple time zones here, and there are things I wanted to reread and perhaps even comment on, but if everyone else wants to zoom ahead, so be it.

[Askthepizzaguy]

For this to be wrong I would have needed to look at a pool of 5 names and pick 3 of them incorrectly as suspects, and one of those names is me.

If I am that wrong then I deserve to lose this game. I have no problem with that.

I was able to read Suburban Plankton for alignment and discount him as Elf Shelf due to how those people reacted to him.

If I was right about Mord being Mariah then that also means Plankton is not Mariah.

I would have to be wrong about Mord before I ever let Plankton die here.

I am prepared to be wrong about Mord, but Gnarly is different.

Gnarly has to be Elf Shelf all the time. It isn't Meeko, it isn't Plankton, and it isn't me, and I think Mord is Mariah, not Elf.

Even in scenarios where I got a piece of the puzzle wrong, flipping gnarly still means town wins in 4 shots, 2 correct.

We have 4 shots if Gnarly dies here and is Elf. One of them used on Gnarly, of course.

That's three more shots. Mord has to die before I would ever call Meeko or Plankton a suspect.

That's two more shots. By now, the game has continued because I missed. One of those shots gets used on me.

That's one more shot. Name a name. Plankton or Meeko for the Mariah Godfather.

Shrug. One reads incredibly townie and the other one has to have fun playing a game where you just hide and submit murders and hope Pizza still argues that you shouldn't die.

Because I think Meeko is town, so do you realize how incredibly poor it is to rely on that here? It's nearly suicidal.

There's almost a level of ballsy gall it would take to rely purely on me to carry your hiding butt to the end of the game when I don't have to do so and have a town read on Meeko. It stops being cowardly and starts being brave again.

Let Plankton win the game that way. I've never seen that before, so it will be a first. I like to learn.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy

Gnarly has to be Elf Shelf all the time. It isn't Meeko, it isn't Plankton, and it isn't me, and I think Mord is Mariah, not Elf.

I went over why in previous posts, but if you're following along and don't remember / tldr the previous posts, here's why.

1) Meeko should have shot Jan last night, which is the obvious shot, and also because when he doesn't, that creates enough kill power for town for town to actually vig meeko on Night 6. Meeko doesn't read as scum, and especially doesn't read as Elf Shelf particularly because BC would have been reaching out after outing and trying to form an alliance with Meeko, who responded by simply voting for him and calling for him to be vigged, rather than coordinate kill power. It doesn't prove he isn't Mariah, but by cold read, he's not scum, and if he's not scum, he's not Mariah. 2) A Poor Shepherd Boy called for Plankton to be vigged. I went over why that's extremely poor to do, it outs Plankton as being protected at all, and Prof P is still alive to scan you, and APSB was under suspicion and a target for both scan and vig. You don't suicide your whole faction like that, no matter how much an inactive teammate frustrates you. 3) Mordenkainen would have placed a duh-shot for Jan last night because he was active at deadline of previous day. He wasn't inactive, so the missing shot doesn't make sense coming from him unless he's extremely poor at shooting the one person in the game who is always hostile to him and cannot be protected at all. Sorry, I don't think Mordenkainen is that bad at the game. I think he's Mariah almost all the time, and town when I guessed wrong, NEVER Elf shelf anymore. 4) I am the holder of the "It's Not Askthepizzaguy" card. 5) Jan is an awesome badass town doctor. 6) Vanta is an awesome badass town vig.

Like Bashorian Clement, it is possible to determine Gnarlycharlie's role and alignment exactly even if I messed up elsewhere.

[Askthepizzaguy]

This is notes for me. If you decide to read them this is what I am doing: I'm doing a long full reread of the entire game with everyone visible, looking at Mord and Meeko and Guiri/Gnarlycharlie slot closely.

Specifically Meeko would have to be Mariah Godfather here for Mord to be town, is my assumption, because Plankton doesn't fit the bill. So I looked specifically for those types of connections, despite my repeated viewing of Meeko as town.

While I am doing that, I came across my analysis of Gnarly:

Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy Preliminary findings: (Spoiler tag broken) Guiri / Gnarlycharlie slot should be unaligned with Mordenkainen (several instances... at least three or more, I think.) Guiri / gnarlycharlie should be unaligned with Bashorian Clement in multiple instances. Guiri / gnarlycharlie should be unaligned with Pleonast. Gnarly and Suburban Plankton should be unaligned (vig shot request, super strong unalignment, multiple instances). Guiri slot was particularly interested in Raventhief before she died. Gnarly seemed to get absurdly shook by Pleonast voting him for gut reasons. I think Guiri and Jan can have done a thing where they are not aligned but I am not sure. It can just be a reaction to Jan not reacting to AA's death well, and Guiri wanted to distance from Jan, but my read on Jan doesn't support that so much. Gnarly does both the "strange" and the "I disagree" tells. Gnarly does one instance of serious passive aggression, which is scummy. Gnarly takes two positions on things several times, which is noncommittal, and Gnarly tries to manipulate the vig into hitting Plankton. When I first subbed into the game my snap read on Guiri was that his posts were not villagery, and then Gnarly's post on sub in wasnt villagery. On re-read, I read several posts which read as solving and active and aggressive,which I read as villagery, but in this game, it is just solving and all teams do have to solve, especially early for Mariah Team because they needed to figure things out as they were losing one member that day. I marked down Guiri as probably town due to a few solving posts mainly, and then havent read much on the slot since. After that, Gnarly hasn't behaved very villagery. It could be an example of a townie hitting scumtells. So the read is very mixed, but Guiri-Gnarlycharlie shouldn't be on the same scum team as most of the people I am suspecting. I also spotted a bit where Gnarly shouldn't be elf on the shelf. If Gnarly is scum I think he should be Mariah only. The read is so mixed that I am saving it to a note sheet and catching some sleep. I think if the partner analysis is solid then it is difficult to find a partner for Guiri. Guiri should simply be town or Mariah faction based on this iso but I am not finding a clear "Mariah" partner for him and there should be one in my suspects pile. It still has enough pings to not write this off as done. Because it is a difficult call I am going to sleep on it. If Guiri were scum it is super problematic for several of my suspicions because basically all of them dont look partnered with him. This was well before I did the night kill analysis, but even here I should have gotten the fact that Gnarly and BC were not aligned and paired that with my thoughts that BC was Mariah Scum Doctor specifically. The Orange bits are the bits I no longer agree with, the analysis itself is otherwise solid, the orange bits within the conclusion don't follow from the work itself. Which I should have noticed when I posted it, the problem here was that I was extremely tired when I did this analysis, and I stopped and saved my work, instead of posting the entire iso because I couldn't keep my eyes open and I doubted my judgment was very clear-headed. Small errors like not seeing that Gnarly and BC shouldnt both be Mariah when BC is Mariah are the basics of the basics, but I was in no state to think clearly. When I woke up I still felt BC was scum and that Gnarly was often scum, and later figured out they should be on opposing teams. "I also spotted a bit where Gnarly shouldn't be elf on the shelf." I looked for that and could not find such a bit after I was done sleeping, and I did look very carefully. I believe I had the likely factions reversed in my head for the people I had been accusing, but they had not flipped yet, so I couldn't find evidence of this when I woke and that thought was gone from my memory. That's usually how that happens to me.

With the benefit of all the flips, and the night action data from the past 2 nights in a row, and Gnarly's drop in participation, the passive aggressive bits while he did post Day 2, and the likelihood his behavior a precipitated inter-mafia shooting war, I come away from the read so far (since Gnarly didn't post after Day 2) still very solidly convinced Gnarly is scum, and Elf specifically. It makes sense that BC's team shot him for a lot of reasons.

[Mahaloth]

Originally Posted by Vote Counting Robot

Gnarlycharlie (3): Askthepizzaguy (52), Mordenkainen (66), Vanta Black (71)
Mordenkainen (2): Askthepizzaguy (9)[51], Silverjan (17), Vanta Black (18)[40], Meeko (21)
Askthepizzaguy (0): Mordenkainen (28)[66]

Gnarlycharlie is set to be wrapped now and our Day is still scheduled to end tomorrow at 8:30PM.

[Askthepizzaguy]

More notes for me, this time the Meeko analysis. A summary will be included in the next post for TLDR purposes.

Originally Posted by Meeko Talk me back from this, gang. .... At your peril.

Here is where Meeko interacts with Bashorian Clement. For Meeko to be Scum Mariah Godfather, this is how Meeko and BC would have decided to distance from one another, with false suspicion.

Originally Posted by Meeko If I could be arsed, Mendie would respond here. But I think that joke has been overplayed in this game, the second time I used the account. Especially not since, you know, ahem, the game proper has started. Even if we are screwed. Like, I was promised more crossfire than that. Yeah. Sleep. Probably.

The bolded bit read sincerely to me. Not difficult to fake.

Originally Posted by Meeko I am tempted to look at this math, and conclude that, for the third "wrap" .... additional power [That is to say, a one shot, or otherwise a limited "extra" power was used] was used. And therefore, decided on, deliberated on. What is the motivation to use up Extra on Night 1? I would like to think, that, despite the body count, having .... incensed scum [[Capitlized, or Not]] being moved to do extra, has to ultimately bode well for us. .... and that it's not some stupid townie. At first it's like Townies wouldn't do that. Yes, to play off of that, and then because it would be an assumed opposite to scum . but it's like, No, Town wouldn't do that, can't exist, because I am sure town has already, and always done it all, and always to their detriment. [[Yes, I guess you could attempt a read on that as a tell on my part. But, dammit, you know, it's like I'm not sure what contortion I would need to take, to make that work, any other way.]] That is. the .... voice, the, passiveness of it, it takes itself out of the game, to speak to the Game at large. It's outside the game in that sense, because it speaks to the Theory, not the practice. I don't know, I fear that even that just digs it deeper. But it's like, If I feel like I am making less sense now, to myself, perhaps, just perhaps, you know, double negative reverse psychology, it makes more sense for you guys? ---- Finally, Finally, I think it's clear that I have no good reads on much of anything right now. and that, that's where my head is, instead of on a pillow. I'm not sure, really, how townies could have appreciable different reads on the current game state, beyond that. Damn. It's not a matter of how close I get to "it" here, if I can't transcend. Can't. Because the Won't [[And that one really weird use of "Want" ]] of me to get there, ..... doesn't ever take. I just feel, like, If I could turn off some part of me, I could be a much better Mafia player. But. ... crucially, that player would not be "Meeko", and it also would not be Me. It's not that the tank is empty. The tank doesn't exist.

Bolding in original post, not my own. This post, Meeko seems to not understand the game setup and is suggesting that there was no vig shot, but 3 scum murders.

For Meeko to be scum, that has to be a deliberate attempt to derp clear.

Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement This is simple I think. My role PM was either sent or received on 19th December 2021 at 02:20 PM, and I made that post on 19th December 2021, 01:21 PM. I say sent or received because I'm not sure which the timestamp in my inbox reflects. I'll ask if I can do a screen cap of the timestamp if you want I guess. I'm Central Standard Time U.S. so you could try converting the timestamp in your inbox to see if it is close to mine.

Here, Bashorian clement is attempting to use the timestamps of his role to convince Meeko that he is town.

There are a lot of things that do not read like Mafia-Mafia dancing. This kind of behavior does not come up very much, because on most other forums, it is forbidden to discuss when you got your role PM, using the timestamps.

With the benefit of hindsight BC was guilty and was still trying to essentially argue that when he claimed he "got his power" it was not alignment indicative.

But you wouldn't need to go to such lengths to convince a member of your own team of that.

So, for Meeko and BC to be scum together, even this bit would have to be faked.

Originally Posted by Meeko I'm not sure how to answer this, without literally repeating what you just quoted I said. I see two non town teams, and three kills.

And this bit.

Originally Posted by Meeko This.

And this bit.

Originally Posted by Meeko That's "Yes, And", if you please, ---- Your selected quote from me was over the "I can confirm my power" pseudo slip that we had already discussed by now. Paraphrasing, but at that time, I wanted to pull my punch so to speak, before I went full bore. Which admittedly, didn't last too long, but, well, my evidence at least is there, for as long as that lasted. However, I still reserve the right to vote you over it, or anything else that may or may not come up. Simply put, you are still alive, and well, I am considering that into my equation. I'm not saying I am a vig, or anything like that, just, that, obviously, per the game, Townies die at night.... There is a further tortured line of reasoning on this, but I think you understand what I am getting at.

And this bit. (I needed to grab more quotes, these may not be in chronological order).

Originally Posted by Meeko In honesty, [And yes, I know, I hate using that phrase, but all other phrases here will be as equally as confining / and twisted to "prove" AI motivation / slip, so, knowing this, and then further, to point to it directly, hopefully, removes the sting there. .... I know that it can be seen as a tell to a possible non-town alignment. But I am telling you that it is not. You will do with that as you will, even if I tell you to do so, or not. ] I probably was more tired than I thought I was. If not for the day itself, for the season. Perhaps it did catch up with me finally. [[More information than you want to know, I am sure, but I was fighting to use the rest of PTO, with one manager, while simultaneously arguing for a raise with another. 12 cents every six months, is not worth it.]] Frozen. Apathy. Day 1 being ..... As I once asked chronos... Does Day 1 in Mafia games need that Jamie Lee Curtis regularity yogurt? .... Constipated. All of these things I treasure in my heart. ... No wait, that was something else treasured in the hearts of people at Christmas time, wasn't it?

And this bit, between both BC and Meeko.

Originally Posted by Meeko I went back to find this exact post. I was hoping that a third person was involved in this exchange. Frankly, this, between us, feels like town on town at this point, and I would be further from that, if a third party was involved.

And this bit as well, which concludes the dance if they were both scum, and allows them to town read each other, as you can see in this post at the end of this long chain of interactions:

Originally Posted by Meeko Because, it's either you or BC, and frankly, I am more sure that BC and I are town against town. Ultimately, OMGUS, tinged with skimming. That is to say, I think you aren't giving me enough credit given my improved play over the more recent games. I think you are manufacturing / mobilizing this, in militaristic sense. And, as I know what alignment I am, ... that does not bode well for you. At this point, any ""case"" as such I bring up, is going to be weak, but I don't let that sway my action. Others have said and used " Gut Reaction " here, and get away with far more. But, yes. A "smell". Faintly.

All of that would have to be faked between Meeko and Bashorian Clement for Meeko to be scum Godfather Mariah.

Originally Posted by Meeko The motivation then ... Is it better to say frame of reference? .... The vantage I had with this, was one of assuming that non-town teams had a limited number of extra kills. That having used one of them [To total 3 NKs across two non-town teams] they felt pushed to do so.... because we were on to them. Yes, 3 dead town in one day cycle is not good. BUT if we can glean anything from it. especially, if we are on their trail... then Ultimately that has to be good. Besides that, what do you mean by “ultimately bode well for us”? We are losing the battle, but winning the war kind of thing. Zugzwangs and what not. Zugzwangs, because Occam's is so pre 2019.

As an aside this post also feels like he believes there were three scum murders.

Originally Posted by Meeko Do I want to poke this with a stick, Pleo? But, for Prof, please continue on "mechanical reasons" If you ware posting the entire 10 town left calculus, in effort to have us follow you, that would be dangerous, if you are not town, .... and even worse if you and Prof were on the same non-town team. But it does fit your play style. It fits you. Please note that I am not judging, one way or the other here. ... Yet.

As another aside this post looks like he was unaware that Pleonast was referring to Prof P. claiming cop.

Which is the same reading non-comprehension towntell I used on Archangel in the last game we played together where she was town, and the same one I picked up from Silverjan this game which is why she was initially in my town leans.

So far, that tell has never failed to be a townie doing it, it has a very good track record.

[Askthepizzaguy]

The summary of the above Meeko analysis:

1) For Meeko to be Scum, in my thinking he is discounted as being Elf Shelf, because he could just shoot Jan last night. There is no incentive for him to shoot Prof P. He would also have had to shoot protected Vanta for that to make sense, and I gotta give Meeko more credit than that.

2) So that leaves looking at him as a Mariah candidate. So I did an iso of that, while reading all the other flipped scums and suspects at the same time.

3) A very very very long interaction with bashorian clement, involving BC trying to persuade Meeko using the timestamps of his role PM, would all have to have been faked. See the above post for that very long chain of back and forth quotes.

4) Meeko would then also have to be deliberately derping repeatedly what the game setup is, first believing that there was no town vig, and an extra scum murder for some reason, and then read Pleonast's post where Pleo says he cannot vote Prof for mechanical reasons and also not understand that Prof had claimed Cop. Because he was insinuating that Prof and Pleo could be scums together.

5) At the end of all this deliberate derp clearing and deliberate 2 wolf dancing with Bashorian Clement, the takeaway at the end is that BC is town from Meeko's perspective, and BC stops talking about Meeko as well.

Okay. That's what actually happened if Meeko is Mariah scum, this game.

It would be some of the most creative, odd and well-acted nonsense I have ever seen, particularly from Meeko, because there are so many layers to such a deception.

Just, really powerfully acted stuff, stuff I wouldn't even think of trying to pull, especially the bit with BC trying to use time stamps to argue his alignment, to his own partner.

I don't think that's what happened. I think Meeko is just town.

[Vanta Black]

Originally Posted by Mahaloth

Gnarlycharlie is set to be wrapped now and our Day is still scheduled to end tomorrow at 8:30PM.

Thanks! Because I've only just now got the time to really read everything, I needed it.

[Askthepizzaguy]

The much simpler explanation is that Mordenkainen was shot by Elf Shelf, and Gnarlycharlie was shot by Mariah faction, after each team cross voted the other on Day 2, while town was busy voting for itself, scums went and voted for opposing scums. Those shots hit protected Godfathers, and the scum factions have lost 2 kills due to that, and 1 kill due to Gnarly not submitting an order N4.

Removing Gnarly means Elf Shelf can't shoot anymore, and Vanta hits the Mariah Godfather on n5, d6, or n6. It's really hard to think of a scenario where town can possibly lose that.

I gotta see Mord flip town before I can really buy someone besides him is Mariah. I still spent hours solving it with the assumption that he could possibly be town here.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy After examining the vote record: I think the vote pattern matches what I think the scummos were doing in general all game, even if you plug in Jan as town instead of Mord. It's hard for Pleonast not to be guilty when town Prof is parked on him, but not impossible. Similarly, it's hard for Jan not to be guilty when Jan is parked on me, but not impossible. To make Jan town or Pleonast town, then Mordenkainen almost certainly has to be guilty and then you iso Mordenkainen and look for team behavior, track his suspicions, and see if it matches a villaging process. His vote pattern and suspicions match team behavior where he's the deepest of all the wolves at least, as far as I remember from the last time I seriously investigated Mordenkainen as a suspect. Going by memory that is. But then I sat for the past half hour tracking Mord's suspicions: Thats the full analysis that is mainly notes for me. The point is that townies who suspect someone keep suspecting that person and insisting their suspect dies sooner rather than later, they don't vanish such suspicions for no reason. Even factoring in APSB was subbed by Dizzy, there is no explanation for the missing suspicion on her slot. It vanished when he summarized his suspects. That is usually even more of a tell than all the other classic scumtells plural in multiple instances therein that I found. You take your eye off of Mord and thats when the bulk of the suspicious behavior happened, and also, earlier suspicious behavior becomes a lot clearer in retrospect. I had put Mord as town enough for the APSB interaction and after that, almost all his scummy behavior appeared, since most of it occurred after I said Mord was a town lean. He had almost no activity before then anyway.

My original case work summarizing all the issues I had with Mordenkainen this game.

The TLDR version:

1) "Odd" scumtell goes off in the correct scummy context.
2) "Interesting" scumtell goes off in the correct scummy context.
3) "I agree" scumtell goes off.
4) Suspicion existed on APSB, but he relented on sub in, and then it vanished when he summarized his actual suspicions all game.
5) Most of his posts don't take a stand on anything except what the bulk of the players have already decided, there is much in the way of busywork analysis but very few strong conclusions.
6) The Delay tactic is being used, he takes very little action until he sees what town actually does that day, and since it occurs over 4 days straight, its not a time zone thing.

Adding to that case is the stuff that happened afterward.

That analysis was done on Night 3, before things started really going disastrous for the scum factions and they started whiffing.

7) Since then, mafia kills have probably landed on people who can be the town doctor and/or hostile scums from the solving POV of each person / team who needed to make such a shot, and there was scum of one faction voting for scum of the other faction on Day 2. That's the missing kill analysis which implicates Mordenkainen specifically.

8) His solve on Day 4 was that Pleonast and Pizzaguy were guilty, no commentary on Gnarlycharlie OR Bashorian Clement.

9) His solve to start Day 5 was that Pizzaguy is guilty, and no mention of Gnarlycharlie, and disclaimed accusing Plankton when I suggested he was saying Plankton must be guilty.

That doesn't read like a townie process. Missing suspicions, not enough suspects, progressions not following, and suspicions are not decisive.

10) While accusing me he also suggested I could be town making a mistake, just that he thought it wasn't likely.

[Vanta Black]

Originally Posted by Silverjan

We can still win if we are wrong, why drag out this agony

Silverjan, I'm sorry! I know I have irritated you this game, first by claiming early, and now this.

But I saw a lot of discussion I didn't really have time to read/process. And for me it's not just who we wrap today, it's who I need to shoot tonight, you know? Because it's apparently going to be a quick night. Don't want to blow it. Got any suggestions?

Anyway...a little suspense never hurt anybody, right?

(Oh dear I just thought of that line from a movie called Used Cars, "50 bucks never killed anybody.")

[Silverjan]

Originally Posted by Mordenkainen

I was thinking about this anyway, as I think Gnarly is more likely to be Mafia than you (or Meeko).

This post is just wrong! Is Morden saying that SP is scum then, or perhaps Vanta or me.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I believe he stated that he has three suspects for scum, one is Gnarly, and then the remaining two are me and Meeko, he isn't sure which, but it should be two scums in those three names.

See the bottom line of this post:

Originally Posted by Mordenkainen So which of these are Mafiate? From my point of view, there are two candidates from four names; ATPG, Gnarlycharlie, Meeko and SP. I rule out me because I know what I am (and you will soon find out, Vanta Black the Vig and Silverjan. Which of those four is not Mafiate? I definitely think ATPG is one of them. Now, he's been championing Meeko as townie most of the game. If ATPG is Town then he really believes that, but he has no special knowledge, which means Meeko is still a candidate for the final three. If, on the other hand, ATPG is Mafiate (whichever family), it makes no sense for him to champion the other team's Godfather unless ATPG is thinking he'd rather have the rival Family win than the enemy - Town. Thus I conclude that one of ATPG or Meeko is Town, leaving us with a final three. Unfortunately, the best argument for eliminating a player is that SP is completely absent from the forums, and has been since early Christmas Eve (I'm GMT, remember). That makes him more likely to be Town than the others. So Gnarltycharlie and <ATPG|Meeko> are the Mafiates.

He's definitely aware of both Vanta's claim and yours.

[Silverjan]

Originally Posted by Vanta Black

Silverjan, I'm sorry! I know I have irritated you this game, first by claiming early, and now this.

But I saw a lot of discussion I didn't really have time to read/process. And for me it's not just who we wrap today, it's who I need to shoot tonight, you know? Because it's apparently going to be a quick night. Don't want to blow it. Got any suggestions?

Anyway...a little suspense never hurt anybody, right?

(Oh dear I just thought of that line from a movie called Used Cars, "50 bucks never killed anybody.")

You haven't irritated me, except when you thought I was scum lol. I walked away from the computer because I thought you did need time to think about it. It lessened my tension lol. I think both Mord and gnarly are scum, especially after rereading that post by Mord saying that gnarly is more likely scum that pizza or Meeko. It is as if Mord is only looking for one scum and not two like the rest of us are. It looked like a perspective slip because Mord is the "other" scum and obviously he isn't looking for himself.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I went over Meeko's iso very carefully, and pointed out anything that could possibly link him to Bashorian Clement.

I didn't come away with a conclusion that Meeko and BC were scum together, and I saw other bits that read more like a townie not in the know.

I then looked over Mordenkainen's iso again, and referred back to my previous analysis done on Morden. It's actually gotten worse since then, it reads even less like a townie solving process.

If Mordenkainen is Mariah aligned, then members of both factions called for him (Suburban Plankton) to be vigged at night, since APSB/Dizzy slot did. (And Gnarlycharlie, who I think is also Elf)

That is sufficient for me to believe that Plankton is town and why I would object to hitting Plankton before you know what Mordenkainen's alignment is.

If it's Mariah, you shouldn't be hitting Plankton.

[Silverjan]

Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy

I believe he stated that he has three suspects for scum, one is Gnarly, and then the remaining two are me and Meeko, he isn't sure which, but it should be two scums in those three names.

See the bottom line of this post:


He's definitely aware of both Vanta's claim and yours.

It was the way he said it. Why should gnarly be more likely scum than you or Meeko? If he's Town then he must think that either you or Meeko are scum too. Sorry, I am having difficulty trying to explain this, especially at 3 am.

[Vanta Black]

Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy

...
Vanta said that BC said something about hitting PP, I can't find that looking at his posts, but if you are an outed scum you are in prime position to at least indicate where you are shooting. Any active Elf member would have seen such intent.

This is the post.

I saw this:

Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement

You're probably in bed, but Hay Birthday Silverjan!

And kinda read this like it was a boldfaced email: I take out PP

What I assume is that BC and the GF discussed this on the scum boards and decided this was the best way to take out two power roles, PP for Mariahs, SJ for the Elves. And that BC had to do it in case it was obvious, as it was, because he was probably already toast, as he was.

Guess they could have missed it, or misread it, obviously one of those things happened. Just odd that both teams wanted to go for the doc, who could not find either GF and would be basically vanilla at that point. But like I said, I'm grateful. But this is what makes me think Elf was AFK or just absent.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Originally Posted by Silverjan

It was the way he said it. Why should gnarly be more likely scum than you or Meeko? If he's Town then he must think that either you or Meeko are scum too. Sorry, I am having difficulty trying to explain this, especially at 3 am.

No, I get you.

You're at 3am? It's 4am here.

Is it okay if I take off my detective hat and just kind of... hang out like a normal person.

I am weary of the game solve right now, and my life is pretty lonely given I watch a sleeping baby at night and take care of her when my wife is sleeping, and I work when my wife is awake, and it's super loud at my job, and my job is far away, so its not like I can make friends there I can hang out with.

I'd love to just hang out for a while and not care about the game anymore.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I do not know if an opposing scum faction which cannot communicate privately would read that post as an indication they were hitting Prof P, Vanta. In fact, because he was outed, and was naming a townie, if you were reading something into that, it reads more like BC was saying he was going to shoot Silverjan- Because that is a single unambiguous name. So if that post were a signal, that would be the signal. And then BC didnt kill Jan, so I don't think that post means a signal.

I think BC was just being a nice guy and saying happy birthday to Jan while taking out the one guy who could scan BC as guilty.

And Elf didnt shoot Jan because Elf is on a Shelf somewhere, probably.

[Askthepizzaguy]

You're approaching the very rarely seen limits to my energy and desire to win a game for town.

Spooky territory ahead, watch out now!

[Vanta Black]

Okay, we're just talking, but you seriously think BC sent a message intended to read "Happy Birthday"

and just happened to leave out two Ps?

"Hay Birthday"?

BC makes that kind of typo?

But okay, i see how the other team could read it in the opposite way also.

I guess I prefer to think the lone Elf was just not there. I don't think BC was being a nice guy.

I'm probably warped.

[Vanta Black]

Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy

You're approaching the very rarely seen limits to my energy and desire to win a game for town.

Spooky territory ahead, watch out now!

Actually that thing from BC speaks to me against your being an Elf, it just doesn't seem like a thing like I've ever seen you do. I've seen both Swammi and Pleo do things like that. Much subtler though IMO.

[Silverjan]

Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy

No, I get you.

You're at 3am? It's 4am here.

Is it okay if I take off my detective hat and just kind of... hang out like a normal person.

I am weary of the game solve right now, and my life is pretty lonely given I watch a sleeping baby at night and take care of her when my wife is sleeping, and I work when my wife is awake, and it's super loud at my job, and my job is far away, so its not like I can make friends there I can hang out with.

I'd love to just hang out for a while and not care about the game anymore.

That doesn't sound like a lot of fun. It's horrible to feel lonely. I know, I have my Mom and my husband with me but one of my kids lives 4 hours away and the other one is in South Africa. Most of my friends are in South Africa apart from one who is a 2 hour drive away. I have lived in this tiny town for 6 years and have hardly spoken to anyone

[Askthepizzaguy]

Originally Posted by Vanta Black

Okay, we're just talking, but you seriously think BC sent a message intended to read "Happy Birthday"

and just happened to leave out two Ps?

"Hay Birthday"?

BC makes that kind of typo?

But okay, i see how the other team could read it in the opposite way also.

I guess I prefer to think the lone Elf was just not there. I don't think BC was being a nice guy.

I'm probably warped.

Jesus, I legit thought it was an actual typo.

Vanta, I am so tired, it's like a new stage of tired.

No, you're right, that was an actual message. It's the only thing that makes sense now that you mentioned it.

[Vanta Black]

Well, you need to sleep sometimes! How's that baby doing, by the way? Sleeping babies are so adorable. Awake ones too actually.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Originally Posted by Silverjan

That doesn't sound like a lot of fun. It's horrible to feel lonely. I know, I have my Mom and my husband with me but one of my kids lives 4 hours away and the other one is in South Africa. Most of my friends are in South Africa apart from one who is a 2 hour drive away. I have lived in this tiny town for 6 years and have hardly spoken to anyone

I mainly picked up mafia as a hobby because even way before I met my wife, I was working nights at a pizza place, and before that, I was going to school and working at the same time, and before that, I was working nights at a pizza place. In all of those years, there was either a daylight sleep schedule, or I was too busy to socialize. I found my wife through mafia games, but working and having kids doesn't exactly leave you a bunch of time for socializing outside of the family either. Not that I would do much of that. I don't really do crowds, it's more one on one time with someone I am really compatible with or share interests with, and if you never go out, it's hard to meet someone like that and hang out with them. So the socializing I do has usually been between mafia games, during mafia games (when I am not solving) and hosting mafia games, that kind of thing. But, I've gotten less and less time to do that, and that has led to me drifting away even from my mafia friends. It's all sort of spiraled into the past couple months of me just being pretty depressed. I was hoping that this game would make me feel better, but instead, the stress of it and so forth has made my clinical depression even worse. It's too much anxiety and pressure to put on oneself, if the game affects you in that way. For many its a much more casual enterprise. More relaxing. It's fun guesswork time. I so badly want to treat the game that way, but by force of habit and expectations I have for myself, I can't. I don't know why I can't just relax. I don't really feel like I need to prove anything to anyone. It's only an expectation I am putting on myself. It's tough. I love the people, but I don't like me when I am in the game.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Originally Posted by Vanta Black

Well, you need to sleep sometimes! How's that baby doing, by the way? Sleeping babies are so adorable. Awake ones too actually.

All my life, I haven't actually cared too much about, like, other people's babies. In the family, friends, perfect strangers. I know kids can be cute, babies especially, but none of them ever had like an emotion attached to their cuteness. And when you don't feel that emotion, it's kind of like watching everyone else enjoy a song that you have no real reaction to. (Which is also common for me.) So I appreciated kids, but I was never wowed by them. I really do think my son is a handsome looking boy, and is adorable especially when he talks and laughs and plays and wants hugs. My daughter is so beautiful, she is really photogenic now that she started smiling and laughing and having a personality, and she was always a cute baby even when she was first born and didn't do anything but have a neutral expression or cry. She is learning to roll over onto her stomach and can do it completely without assistance, and this is much faster paced than my son, who was born premature. They are both very healthy kids and they have no birth defects or anything, and if I can just be a good dad for them and keep them safe and educate them well and teach them good moral values and how to treat others kindly and not to think too highly of yourself in the process, I think they will really be wonderful people that my wife and I have brought into the world. I will do my best. She is grabbing things, and saying noises, and I think within a month or so she will be able to skooch along the ground. I'm so scared of dropping her. I hold on with both arms as much as I can.

[Vanta Black]

Originally Posted by Silverjan

That doesn't sound like a lot of fun. It's horrible to feel lonely. I know, I have my Mom and my husband with me but one of my kids lives 4 hours away and the other one is in South Africa. Most of my friends are in South Africa apart from one who is a 2 hour drive away. I have lived in this tiny town for 6 years and have hardly spoken to anyone

Yeah, my friends are moving out of Colorado at an alarming rate. One couple goes to Florida for the winter because he hates the cold, and it sounds like this year they might stay there. One moved to Oregon to be near her daughter and so she could breathe without oxygen, another one went out to Michigan for her daughter's wedding and bought a house there so...she might stay there (nobody goes from Colorado to Michigan for the winter, that's just crazy--and she bought a house!).

These are all old friends, and I feel like I'm too old to make new friends! Probably not true, but I'm pretty socially awkward (bet you would never have guessed that one!) unless I wrench myself into normality, and that only works for a little while.

But due to all this I am now communicating with all my friends only via computer, not in person. Kinda sucks.

But what would we do without the internet!

[Meeko]

So.
.
I don't understand why the game is back to being unsolved again.

1. I am town.

2. Pizza you've basically held every position in the endgame here. Are you going to be ok with all the flips at the end? I think, given your spread, by now, you gotten a few things wrong.

I mean. I just hope you can accept the end, and be "right" with it.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Originally Posted by Meeko

I mean. I just hope you can accept the end, and be "right" with it.

I will be okay. I have given it my best try.

I was very thorough, and looked at all the scenarios, even the ones I thought were probably absurd.

If the scums are outside of my line of sight after all that, then they win, and I did what I was supposed to do, which was try.