Yeetmas 4 - Day 3 "Christmas and Beyond"

[Kaiveran]

Originally Posted by mikomiya

We take those results.

My early choices for chop right now are Burma Shave and Raventhief.

Both Burma and Raven came in to put Hal over the top once tied with Red without even mentioning Red. Raven commented about Hal/Pleo/Swammi and Burma commented about APSB/Jackie.

My secondary choices are APSB and Dizzy, with APSB leading the way there. Their gambit of "kill me then follow me" on day 1 is nothing like the rest of their posting in terms of confidence nor approach, and it coming while under a lot of pressure as the day 1 kill came near makes me think it was a ploy to sound towny. Especially after hearing others say APSB can be very convincing as town.

Dizzy is more of a hang on from day 1, but the way that Red defended them on day 1 sketched me out at the time and the way they voted me with Red once I voted Red makes me think there's a chance of a pairing there.

This is the aforementioned push I was feeling, highlighted.

Originally Posted by Swammerdami

Until we flip an Elf Scum, the vote record has little use (except for finding Mariah Godfather). And I do NOT want to wrap that Godfather now -- it's much more urgent to find us an Elf.

By process of elimination, a good bet for Elf on the Shelf seems to be

I mean Swammi tends to be pretty closed-notebook so I won't fault him for the terseness here.

What I don't understand is the unwillingness to eliminate the Mariah's here. Isn't less town-hostile kills + more trust in Town checks (from a Godfather dying) a good thing?

Originally Posted by LightFoot

To the contrary - even without an elf patterns may emerge
and I find it helps as a reminder of who is in game


I agree as this - let the Elves worry about the Mariah and hope the Mariah finds an Elf target
It seems to me to be stating the obvious but not everyone may have thought this way

Hmm. I mean if you ARE the type to gamble on crosskills, your odds do improve as the game shrinks. And I guess would be nice to have an Elf flip for analysis.

Myself, I am generally uncomfortable with it, especially in a situation like this. If the Mariahs numbered more than one right now, I'd understand this sentiment more – one team or the other might still be able to function as the effective "Vigilante Masons" that the Pizzaguide has gone into in depth. But as it stands now, one team is looking for a needle in a playerstack and the other consists of a single wildcard. Not exactly ideal. If I'm trusting any NK to go our way, it's the Vigilante.

Originally Posted by Dizzymrslizzy

Okay so Miko and Swammi are a team.

Nice reveal there.

There’s absolutely no reason either should be voting for me at this moment in time.

I’m going to stay with my

It’s the most obvious of the scums left out there.

Thank you Vig for taking care of Red.

This reaction is pretty terrible. Dizzy was at the bottom of miko's sus list and she didn't even vote there, looks like she just saw two people put heat on her and jumped to conclusions.

Not that I'm clearing Swammi, though, could still be ScumA/ScumB or even Elf/Elf, given the undue focus on Miko's consistent detail rather than Swammi's low effort posts. Probably prudent to remind people that the unpairing process is a bit different as long as both factions are alive: you want to say "not aligned" instead of "scum/town" or whatever.

Originally Posted by Renata

Sorry to disappoint you.

Yes, actually.

More thoughts on the day one Pizza wagon.

Dude wound up with a whopping five votes in a 20 (? whatever) person game on day one and one of those five votes was his own partner and two more are dead town. Wouldn't be surprised if the rest of the wagon was also town; wouldn't be totally shocked if both partners bussed.

Either way, highly, highly unlikely that his wagon was super influenced by scum from the opposing team. So where the heck are they.

They're not trying to kill Pizza. Probably felt far too risky, as he might have been town and then they look bad digging the grave of such a strong player.

They're not trying to kill Pizza's chosen counterwagon (Texcat). A little bit less easily explainable. Pizza, as mentioned, is a strong player, and when he calls somebody out on day one of a multiball game there's a decent chance he's right and they could have hopped on for a shot at some cheap town cred of the same sort as Miko keeps handing out for doing the right thing re: Pizza. It seems they chose not to, and the only thing that keeps me from just voting Texcat again right now because of it is that the prospect of a town-Pizza lynch that they didn't cause must have been pretty tasty too. So there's a high incentive to go completely off-wagon, spread the votes, and let Pizza get lynched by default.

And that's exactly what happened. So I won't go after Texcat on wagonnomics; I'll either get off my butt and do it properly based on posting or I'll find a reason not to.

But whether it's because of Texcat or not because of Texcat, I'd bet a cup of coffee the three non-mariah scum ended day one on three different wagons.

@Renata: I'm having trouble understanding the bolded. Could you elaborate?

Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement

That's not quite true, as I asked Mendie a question ( or maybe two ) that she blew off and I didn't think was important enough to follow up on at that point. This was on Day 1 and had something to do with how she characterized Jackie or something.

But really I don't know why you think our lack of interaction is alignment indicative. I haven't had interaction with most of the player list I think. You can probably say that of most of us. I mean, I haven't had interaction with you until now. And I know that I don't have access to a private discord. And if you do, you know I'm not in there with you.

So given the lack of interactions of those in this player list, why accuse Mendie and me specifically of being aligned scum?

I'm not sure if I wanna say "good show" or not. I mean, what he's saying checks out, and I haven't seen anything out of the ordinary, but BC strikes me as someone with a narrowish range.

I'm probably not gonna be able to sort out my nulls anytime soon but I want as much of my thoughts on record as possible.

Originally Posted by Dizzy & Miko

(big back and forth that I neglected to quote somehow)

I mean Dizzy does look marginally better than before here, but I've not been able to find much fault with miko's response. We'll see if there's any followup but I kinda doubt it with only 2 pages.

Originally Posted by Swammerdami

Players have been circumspect this game. With one class of exceptions, it's hard to find scum tells or obviously-scum rhetoric. (The difficulty is partly due to having TWO scum teams.)

The exceptions are when someone (e.g. Red Skeezix) smudges players who are near-certain Town. Scum are desperate to stir up suspicion against Townies. Red over-reached and Wrapping him became easy.

It's easier to find likely Townies: Their thinking is purer. Jackie may seem suspicious looking at the vote record, but some of her scummy look is due to being a noobie. Consider:

If she were Scum, she'd know about night-time wrapping. It would be brazen of her to pretend otherwise. Hence: Jackie is probably Town. Several other players are posting very Townishly. With that and the vote record, we can almost solve the game now!

Dizzy and raventhief are by far the likeliest Scum IMO. Raven may be even likelier than Dizzy and I'll be happy to move my vote to her if that's the consensus.

Candidates for the two remaining scum slots are Renata, APSB and perhaps Burma Shave or Jackie (or the inscrutable TexCat).

@Swammerdami: Jackie already had a Night to be surprised by the "wrap" language though, so I'm not sure why this is suddenly an issue. Unless she found the multi-kills jarring. (Not reading the setup in detail – or at all – is a big thing on other sites, sadly.)

Still I have to admit I'm getting skittish about moving to Jackie. For someone with low presence, low pull, to stick around for so long starts to ping my "designated miswrap" radar, and generally I want to give those people more chances to prove themselves (or not) compared to the bigger fish.

And Renata, well, Town check obvs. Given the numbers I've crunched in my previous post, I don't think we chance it on "Ren's tooootally GF dood!" without some damn good casework to show for it. Which I don't think we have.

Originally Posted by Dizzymrslizzy

So here’s my take on Pizza’s list.

He had Skeetix as neutral almost scummy.

He had himself as Blue.

I don’t think his last partner is a Blue or dark green on this list.

If I’d guess, I bet he put his last partner in the teal category or the orange/red. I’d lean more towards teal with Pizza being run out the door.

We can already cross off the known town.

We already know he was “suspecting me” outside of his rule set ( and I know I’m just an ordinary mall Santa)

Originally Posted by mikomiya

Oh this is good information.

I wonder if the correct play today is to just multiwrap and clean up the wagons from day 1 and day 2 by removing TexCat and APSB. Both have been scumread by people we know are town (Pleo/Guiri were on APSB, Kai was on Tex).

If Dizzy is correct that quiet texcat is scum texcat then that's still someone who can be scum. I've talked about APSB being in my scum pile for a bit now. So it's not just purely for information, but it does give a lot of it in addition.

I mean, Renata's screed is not entirely accurate, but the bolded is the most important bit. Pizza is someone who works tirelessly to maximize his odds and hedge his bets. He is not someone who's going to doom himself and his team to get caught out by using just one element of the Wolf RPS (Defend, Attack, Ignore) unless he thinks he can clinch the game with it.

And getting run over by the killdozer Day fucking 1, which is when he posted this list, is not a game-clinching situation.

So I could definitely indulge the possibility of wuffs in Pizza's bottom tiers (BC, Lizzy, Swammi, and Texcat, for reference.)

This looks like the definitive shift for miko's voting approach as well.

Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement

I haven't had any scum pings from either Tex or Shep, but this is the right play mechanically I think.





I will go back to voting Burma Shave if there is will to wrap there.

These are the only three I'm interested in right now.

...welp, I'm getting some minor scumpings.

I dunno. This isn't quite the dangerous sort of mechanic-brain that happens in (semi-)closed setups, but wolves love the mechanically-optimal solution when its wrong, and given the unlikely but still possible PLM scenario here, I have to pause for a sec.

I'm also very suddenly having flashbacks to how Pizza snuggled me and pet me and called me a good little foxcat D1 for wanting to sink my claws into TexCat. Cold paws, suffice it to say.

Originally Posted by Dizzymrslizzy

Ummmm Didn't I say that?

I mean yeah, but the way you phrased it kinda suggests you were going with the opposite interpretation.

Originally Posted by TexCat

I'm tired of being tunneled by you. For some reason you've been hyperfocused on me and ignoring almost everything else.

@TexCat
Renata's my Town check, so not happening toDay if I can help it.

You have until D4 to explain which team she's the Godfather for, and why.

[Swammerdami]

Until at least one Elf Scum is found, it's hard to read votes and interactions to guess who Scum is. Sometimes I don't even try to study a Game until at least one Scum is flipped.

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

Miko's scum list and mine are remarkably similar (especially with a Renata wrap now off-the-table). I don't think either of us is "sheeping" the other. We're just Townies with very similar reads. Miko may be very clever scum. But Scum can't win without building fake cases against Townies and Miko doesn't seem to be doing that.

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

This is the aforementioned push I was feeling, highlighted.



I mean Swammi tends to be pretty closed-notebook so I won't fault him for the terseness here.

What I don't understand is the unwillingness to eliminate the Mariah's here. Isn't less town-hostile kills + more trust in Town checks (from a Godfather dying) a good thing?

It was stupid oversight on my part. I was so intent on Wrapping an Elf Scum so we can analyze the record, I completely overlooked that Wrapping Mariah Godfather would stop a Murder. I admitted this error, and will be happy to hear arguments why "So-and-so is the Mariah Godfather."

But more urgent is to "herd cats" and arrange a Double Wrap with TWO likely Scum. If Townies cooperate this should be quite doable.

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

. . . Swammi's low effort posts....

Guilty as charged. But I DID re-read the Game, noting that the only Suspect-vs-Suspect activity was Burma Shave's vote on APSB. This reinforced my belief that my Scum suspect list is a good one.

I agree with almost all of Kaiveran's post, but want to clarify this:

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

Swammerdami: Jackie already had a Night to be surprised by the "wrap" language though, so I'm not sure why this is suddenly an issue. Unless she found the multi-kills jarring. (Not reading the setup in detail – or at all – is a big thing on other sites, sadly.)

A first game can be confusing, and not studying rules is common-place. (I didn't read to know that Doc couldn't self-protect.) If Jackie were active in a Scum chat she would certainly know about Night-time Murders. Therefore if she is in a Scum chat, her post is play-acting.

Some might consider such play-acting unethical. I find it likely she is genuine Town. This might be considered "meta-reasoning"; and perhaps it is unethical for me to use it??

[JackieLikesVariety]

Originally Posted by Swammerdami

A first game can be confusing, and not studying rules is common-place. (I didn't read to know that Doc couldn't self-protect.) If Jackie were active in a Scum chat she would certainly know about Night-time Murders. Therefore if she is in a Scum chat, her post is play-acting.

Some might consider such play-acting unethical. I find it likely she is genuine Town. This might be considered "meta-reasoning"; and perhaps it is unethical for me to use it??

I think you mean you "know" me a bit from non-Mafia interactions here on the Geeb, and you realize I am more likely to be clueless than to be play-acting or whatever else we call it.

that seems fair: why wouldn't you use everything you know about a player? so I don't see why you would call it unethical.

in fact, why would anything be unethical if the whole point is to pretend to be someone you aren't (or to not be someone you are)?

and how does a "double wrap" happen if people can only vote once?

[Burma Shave]

I'm really not bad at finding scum But then I can never sway anyone

[A Poor Shepherd Boy]

Originally Posted by Burma Shave

I'm really not bad at finding scum But then I can never sway anyone

I also rarely successfully sway anyone.

[Burma Shave]

Hi raven, hi Shep

Question for Shep: Who would you pick, to be wrapped next?

[Burma Shave]

Or maybe it's too early to say. I was planning to either stay on Bashorian, who I am very sure is scum, or switch to whoever Kai voted for. But as it now looks I stay on Bash.

[A Poor Shepherd Boy]

If I could answer your question I would have voted.

[Burma Shave]

@Kaiveran
You don't have to reply but this is not exactly accurate.

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

This is the aforementioned push I was feeling, highlighted.

I was the vote leader most of the day and my vote was on Halfrize also most of the day. (Voted me on account of misreading my post as Dizzy's and then reiterated late in the day "I think she's scummy because my vote has been on her all day." Pfft.) My reasons were better I think: following guiri's vote, OMGUS, self-pres, and Halfrize looked pretty scummy to me.

Late in the day it looked like I would be the one going over and I changed my vote to Jackie so my suspicion would be on the vote record as a prime suspect, which she is still. At the time I moved it back, Halfrize was already ahead, and I don't think my vote would have even tied it.

I had another question or comment, but I lost it. Probably not important. [Yeah, this was it. fake edited to add:

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

I guess you can take the Armei out of the sweaty tryhard traditions of the game, but the operation isn't commutative.

???]

I am sorry for your loss. Take care of yourself, and one parting thought from my own current troubles: In America, banks rob you. (Long story.)

[LightFoot]

I will abide ...for now

I will be travelling all day tomorrow so I will to myy best to be present here in a few hours
stuff to do right now