Vegas Mafia Day Two

[Kaiveran]

Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement

I went to a fight and a hockey game broke out.

I don't have a real good feel for this game. My usual methods of dissecting posts and looking for what is unusual aren't working. Kaiveran seems overly defensive for some reason. Well, it's not even that; there's something about his posting that gnaws at me. I can't help but look at him being a skilled maf, but I don't know that I can point at anything specific.

Guiri I thought was pretty defensive Day 1, over-explaining things to a point where the horse wouldn't survive. I was suspicious of him especially, but I've backed off on that. His Day 2 posting looks more as an emerging Town leader than a defensive maf.

Archangel I thought may have been pocketing me, but I almost always think that with her. But there's really no reason for her to do that as my presence has been minimal so I lean Town on her.

Meeko it seemed to me was also more verbose than usual, but I feel a good vibe there. More frustrated Town than anything else.

I don't have much on anyone else. I'm curious as to why my low profile hasn't generated more interest.

I saw answers to some of the questions I posed Day 1, and they appeared to relate to oog stuff for the most part, but there were one or two things I asked that I don't think were answered, like the punctuation question. I don't recall that being answered, and it doesn't really matter right now given my current read on guiri.

As far as more than one anti-town faction or player goes, it seems to me that Vanta's death points to there not being multiples despite gnarlycharlie's reveal. Or if there are, it's a survivor (which I guess wouldn't necessarily be anti-town) or someone else without a night kill. I'm confident that Vanta hid behind someone Night 1, and I'm confident that that player is a maf. Otherwise it seems we would've seen three kills it seems.

There was something I wanted to say about Precambrian but I dont' remember what.

I'm voting ofr Kaiveran at this time. I think Kaiveran is likely skilled at any alignment, but I don't get a Twon feel there.

Ahh, I see I'm falling victim to the dreaded ~ATPG Effect~.

(Honestly, I'm flattered. I hope to one day be even a tenth of the overall positive force he's been for the game.)

But hey, you try not being defensive when you're basically the only candidate being seriously considered for most of the day!

Some of these individual items seem a little shallow, but overall a decent catchup reads wall that packs a good amount of content into a concise, readable package.

(I really gotta start taking lessons from you.)

Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement

Now that I think about it I'm not sure I want to hitch my horse to that buggy but let's see how it playhs out.

Will it play out, though?

Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement

This is something that jumped out at me, not necessarily LightFoot's post but guiri's. How do you explain the kills last Night if there is more than one frooce of darkness?

I went into this in an earlier post but this is why I started to think EW was just joshing us on 3Ps in a shellnut.

Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement

If we have a super town power, and I don't see any evidence of that or know what that would be, why we would be less than neutral?

This is also a good point.

Originally Posted by Archangel

I agree with this but it doesn't matter until we find the third party.

Because otherwise any one of them could be hostile and still playing a perfect "town" game because of lack of knowledge.

(I just think Meeko is town though, it's Kaiveran/Guiri I'm really referring to here.)

Eh, it's better to use the more generalized "unaligned" for these kinds of situations. E.g "Alice and Bob are unaligned", so if Alice flips wolf, Bob is definitely not a wolf, but could be either Town or 3P.

[Kaiveran]

Originally Posted by Meeko

That has to be the crumb.

One would not use the word "phase" naturally there, unless they are informed by P.I.S. intentionally or not.

Is "phase" not established here as generic-speak for Day or Night of the game?

Originally Posted by LightFoot

BOLDING MINE
I didn't check the time line but you now know ( per the Mod) how Vanta's power worked right?

Yes if there was an additional killing power they could have held off or been thwarted ( blocked in some manner)
to my underlined bit
that is hard to address without a power role outing their existence so what are you wanting to see?

Originally Posted by LightFoot

I see what you are looking at but as someone who has used a turn of phrase unintentionally it could be a red herring.

It seems Vanta was saying they could vote Kai at a later date but with their ( Vanta's ) role it seems highly unlikely they would hide behind what they felt could be a Scum.


If that makes sense?

I think I have to accept that Lightfoot's posts will be brusque, but I have seen peeks of independent thought from him, continuing here.

Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement

I don't want any reveals unless someone wants to do so. What I'm asking is:

Why has no one asked why there weren't three kills?

Am I missing something?

Originally Posted by Bashorian Clement

I should reword that. I don't want PRs to reveal themselves at this time, unless they think they absolutely need to.

Def town. Lag and damage control all in one, plus the earlier.

Originally Posted by guiri

There also exists the simple option that Vanta did not use his power, was the scum kill directly, and PCM was a vig or SK target, no need for lucky doctors or blockers.

I have acknowledged this possibility. I've said it's pretty implausible by cold read, but if D1 left too much Fog of War for Vanta to form a cogent power strat, I could see it.

[guiri]

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

Sometimes it's so laid-back it's almost comatose.

I feel your pain, this bothers me too.

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

1) All the hinting about a 3P is just a big fat red herring, there's just one scum team vs. one town as usual,

Gnarly's role PM is slightly more than a hint, wouldn't you agree?

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

I would prefer not to.

Furry hugs to you too.

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

meant to



in my last post, but apparently it doesn't work like some other sites, the name is non-optional.

Correct move, but why? I did switch my vote at the last minute to yeet the town cop.

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

Things have been way too static, IMO. I'm beginning to get the sneaking suspicion that it's less likely that wolves are any of the big talkers toDay and are just hanging back waiting for us to implode.

My feelings exactly, which is why I'm leaning more Town on TexCat for D1's apathy.

Originally Posted by Silverjan

I think the 3P has to be anti Town just because of the way the PM was written, if they weren't a threat why would we need them eliminated in order to win?

Agreed, but could be a tagging role, or a win-stealing survivor, most likely someone staying below the radar as long as possible.

Originally Posted by Archangel

I do think he might be 3P.

It would be curious to see if a 3P was ever the highest poster and pulled an attention-grabbing last-minute vote switch to yeet the town doctor! It's not me.

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

With all due respect, this is not a sound re-evaluation. This is utter fantasyland nonsense.

I'm happy you've joined this board and played in this game, I respect your skills and fresh eyes, but I still think you are scum, or potentially 3P. Meeko is unique, both good and bad, and I think this is his town game, but your response here feels like part AtE and part "at least vote me for a solid reason I can defend against", which is what I'd expect a scum Kaiveran to do. I don't believe I'm tunneling you, I'm still looking at other players and options, considering other worlds, even questioning whether the crumb is a crumb, but may be confbiasing some of your posts, and this is one that makes me feel better about my vote. And I wish I wasn't the top poster, I don't even feel like I've been that active, and certainly have no desire to be the town lead, just enjoy the game and back and forth it entails.

[Kaiveran]

Originally Posted by Archangel

@Kaiveran hugs and I love your references. (Bartleby is GOAT.)

Back in game: my read on TexCat is neither simple nor mechanistic. I just don’t know how to articulate it. I perceive small differences in tone, and I change my mind very fast. I’m going to try in this case to be more specific for you because you don’t know me (oh the earworm):

1. There was a subtle difference in her vote for Mahaloth last game and her vote for him this game. Last one was naked and strategic (I don’t know if you saw this but I was scum with her there, she was nailing down a mizzle we needed). Here she voted and gave a reason. I didn’t like the reason (here) but it does seem a normal TexCat policy thing.

2. I don’t trust Mahaloth here (see 4 in a minute) and part of what I do that I find hard to articulate is to see how certain individuals react to other certain individuals. For example me and Vanta- if I’m town and we’re arguing really hard, he’s almost certainly going to flip town. That’s why I unvoted him and I was right about that.

3. I don’t think you’re scum here. If I’m wrong I have egg on my face and the thing gives me pause is that Meeko who knows you better and whom I think is town does, but I just don’t. So part of my equation is how people are reacting to you, and if you’re town, TexCat not pushing you makes her look townie to me. (If I’m wrong about you then I would think TexCat is a scum mate from this.)

4. I don’t like the run up on her now and I liked her reaction to Charlie’s flip, it seemed real to me.

5. I absolutely think the thing from Vanta was a breadcrumb. That’s breaking my mind right now because it makes me think I need to vote you but I don’t want to.

6. If I’m not voting you I have to either vote TexCat strategically, because she said she’s not a town power, or vote guiri because he’s been coming for you the whole game. Part of me wants to vote guiri because he can always fool me.

7. Or I could vote Mahaloth because I think he’s just scum here. But there are no votes for him and I am town and I need my vote to matter toDay.

*purrs more and nuzzles...if that's okay with you*

yeah, rawrf, this game has been rougher than dollar store booze and this is a shit position for anyone to be in. I think I'm right to trust you, for what is worht. Keep the full breadth of possibilities in mind, and try to cut em down to what's more plausible.

Originally Posted by Archangel

Also Re my comments on guiri, this is going to be brief because I’ve once more made myself late to work because of hyperfocusing on Mafia.

I don’t think guiri is scum with teammates. He’s got fluidity of thought which doesn’t indicate PIS.

I do think he might be 3P.

Agreed, which is why I don't want to come for his neck today.

Think about it. We can try to eliminate an 3P today, but they're a much smaller target, and if they have a kill, it's not exclusively aimed at us, unlike the wolves. Indeed, with town down pretty bad at this juncture, wolves are probably the biggest fish to fry, and it'll be much easier for a 3P to suss out a partner if we get a red flip.

So wolves are the optimal target, IMO.

-----

I'd do more, but I'm really running on fumes atm.

My brain keeps coming back to this post.

Originally Posted by guiri

Less than 24 hours left in the Day and 6 non-voters: Archangel, Colby11, Lightfoot, Mordenkainen, SilverJan and TexCat.

In case it wasn't already clear, I don't think guiri is a wolf anymore. Just like there's pre-flippy bullshit, there's post-flippy bullshit, and I think I applied a little too much of that in response to charlie going down.

Instead, I think it's at least one of the other people on my wagon (BC, Meeko), and at least one person in the pool above. Because I don't think the whole scumteam would go all in on one strategy when they might still have one more cycle to survive.

[Kaiveran]

I think it's pretty clear that from my wagon, I (regrettably) prefer Meeko over BC.

As to narrowing down the other pool....I trust Archangel, and thus put some stock in her TexCat read. Light foot is probably okay because of their independence. And I still think Silverjan was the most pure of the charlie voters and has generally pinged me town.

That leaves Colby and Morden.

Meeko, Colby, Morden.

Is it that simple?

I hope to fuck it's that simple.

[Kaiveran]

That;s as far as I go for now.

Tag me near EoD and I'll see what compromises to be made, if any.

[Archangel]

@guiri I just saw your question. Yes, Paulwhoisaghost stole (by which I mean won solely) an epic game doing exactly this. (He used to play here but I think it might have been during one of your hiatuses, not sure if you know him.)

My distrust of you is a mark of my esteem, only very high-level players can pull this off. But I think you're trying to solve so even if you're a 3P you're not my priority today.

[TexCat]

My gut read still says that Mahaloth is scum. I don't like the way he has OMGUS voted me today with no comment.

But I do think it's entirely possible that Vanta hid behind Kai last night. And I like the wagon on Kai. And I might need the self-defense vote again.



I'm going to work and will be mostly absent during the rest of the Day, but will try to check back on my phone.

[Archangel]

Originally Posted by Vote Counting Robot

Kaiveran (4): guiri (4), Meeko (23), Bashorian Clement (93), TexCat (158)
Texcat (2): Mahaloth (58)[122], Mahaloth (122), LightFoot (124)
Mahaloth (1): Archangel (145), TexCat (158)[158]
Meeko (1): Kaiveran (156)
Guiri (0): Kaiveran (36)[140]

If you want, you can paste this as well:

Voting History:
post #4: guiri voted Kaiveran
post #4: guiri illegally voted Bashorian Clement
post #23: Meeko voted Kaiveran
post #36: Kaiveran voted Guiri
post #58: Mahaloth voted Texcat
post #93: Bashorian Clement voted Kaiveran
post #122: Mahaloth unvoted Texcat
post #122: Mahaloth voted Texcat
post #124: LightFoot voted Texcat
post #140: Kaiveran unvoted Guiri
post #145: Archangel voted Mahaloth
post #156: Kaiveran voted Meeko
post #158: TexCat voted Mahaloth
post #158: TexCat unvoted Mahaloth
post #158: TexCat voted Kaiveran

[Archangel]

@TexCat the multivote is causing problems, who do you want your actual vote on?

[Archangel]

Because I don't think it's Kaiveran, I could be wrong about TexCat, and the multivoting seems like it could be disingenuous.

[Archangel]

We've got about 5 hours, people.

@Kaiveran I have voted Mordenkainen for playing like this multiple times where he flipped town. That doesn't mean he's not scum, but he has health issues that cause low participation.

And Colby is just completely unreadable in every game because he's very busy IRL.

[guiri]

It was me who did the multi-vote, TexCat's vote and unvote seem to have been counted correctly, leaving her vote on Kaiveran.

[guiri]

Originally Posted by Mahaloth

AA seems normal to me. I have not noticed Silverjan enough to comment.

Huh, I guess. Worth noting.

I think Bashorian is odd for just jumping on the Kaiveran train there.

What is this? Doubling down?

[Mahaloth]

Originally Posted by TexCat

My gut read still says that Mahaloth is scum. I don't like the way he has OMGUS voted me today with no comment.

But I do think it's entirely possible that Vanta hid behind Kai last night. And I like the wagon on Kai. And I might need the self-defense vote again.



I'm going to work and will be mostly absent during the rest of the Day, but will try to check back on my phone.

Originally Posted by Mahaloth

AA seems normal to me. I have not noticed Silverjan enough to comment.

Huh, I guess. Worth noting.

I think Bashorian is odd for just jumping on the Kaiveran train there.

This was a true mental lapse.

[Eristic Widgeon]

@Kaiveran, it sounds like you're asking if you could make a Google Docs spreadsheet and link to it? That would be fine. Generally you can post whatever you want, except for obviously gamebreaking things like screenshots of your PM.

[guiri]

Originally Posted by Eristic Widgeon

@Kaiveran, it sounds like you're asking if you could make a Google Docs spreadsheet and link to it? That would be fine. Generally you can post whatever you want, except for obviously gamebreaking things like screenshots of your PM.

But read-only, I guess, to avoid outside communications?

[Archangel]

Originally Posted by guiri

Can you offer a world where he made that breadcrumb but did not hide behind scum Kaiveran?

FWIW I'm still not 3rd party.

Yes (but my understanding of Vanta's role is fuzzy so correct me if I'm wrong).
NK equals official scum NK here.

1. Vanta was the NK and some other role took out PCM. (Unlikely though because I believe the breadcrumb.)

2. PCM was the NK and someone else shot at Vanta, regardless of his power. (More likely than 1.)

3. Someone targeted Kaiveran with a non-scum kill, and Vanta died because of it.

If someone targeted Kaiveran with a non-scum kill such as a vig, would Vanta die if Kaiveran was town?

[Archangel]

Originally Posted by guiri

It was me who did the multi-vote, TexCat's vote and unvote seem to have been counted correctly, leaving her vote on Kaiveran.

Ack, you're right, I thought she voted Mahaloth and Kaiveran. Ignore that and let me fix it.

[Archangel]

[guiri]

TexCat

D1 #3 Hi, fluff #20 asks PCM about punctuation #21 to me, does not understand fluff comment re: drinks & mixers #34 to Meeko, fluff re: drinks, ice & beer #35 quotes Colby's vote/unvote of Mahaloth, agrees scum would say that, votes Mahaloth #150 to me, who asked which part of Colby's vote she agreed with, clarifies that scum would say what Mahaloth said, felt disingenuous, like scum trying hard, his follow-up posts seem over defensive #230 to me, who asked who's around, is but won't be for long (being yeet leader) #231 has a gut feeling that Mahaloth is scum #235 to me, who asked, says she's not scum #236 to me, who asked for her reads on the other candidates, think Vanta and I are town, suspects Mahaloth and BC, would switch to gnarly but so little to go on #237 switches to Gnarly #238 admits it's a feeble vote and self-preserving

- I found the initial confusion to be feigned
- I found the lack of defense, plus sharing reads, to be in her favor, and the self-defense vote was understandable, I don't see any defense against the votes on her at any time, except for the reaction to Mahaloth's initial vote

N1 #3 would have unvoted if Gnarly had claimed, cop is more important than her #24 to PCM, clarifies Gnarly's role and limitation regarding possible 3P results on town or scum D2 #5 open question, presumably based on my #4, asks if we can multivote #6 suspects PCM was the scum kill and Vanta hid behind scum, will look for crumbs #8 got distracted, re-read D1, considers it possible that Vanta hid behind PCM and both were killed, hider should select someone who's town but not a likely scum target. Quotes Vanta's question to Mahaloth about his thoughts on Guiri and Kaiveran #71 to Colby, who asks why she voted Gnarly over Vanta, explains she had townish reads on Vanta and me, went with a gut decision #123 thinks it makes sense for Vanta to hide behind Kaiveran, as 'ey fit the bill for a townie who wasn't likely to be the NK #125 to Lightfoot, who points out that Vanta did not town-read Kaiveran & voted TexCat, agrees that it's not clear, but contends that Kaiveran was an unlikely NK target #126 questions votes received, Mahaloth voted and re-voted in the same post, Lightfoot did not give a reason #158 gut still points to Mahaloth, dislikes his OMGUS vote without comment, insists that Vanta hiding behind Kaiveran is a possibility, self-preservation votes Kaiveran, will try to be back

- did she actually look for crumbs, and find one, but not mention it? Why quote that Vanta post in #8, other than to throw shade at Kaiveran and me? A step is missing here.
- while illogical, I find the wording in #123 troublesome
- she shows some, very little, but some fight toDay, unlike D1
- this may sound familiar to some, but I'd happily yeet TexCat toDay, I don't see reasons not to consider Kaiveran and TexCat being both scum

To resolve the Vanta read on Kaiveran, we have just these exchanges:

#81 Vanta jumps on Archangel's questioning of Kaiveran, #108 continues questioning, votes Archangel, comments: Originally Posted by Vanta Black Must add that I was kinda tempted to vote Kaiveran but (a) then I forgot why and now I don't see it and (2) it's their first game here so first-day pass. #122 posits an Archangel/TexCat scumteam, I can only infer that somehow he suspects Archangel was distancing herself from Kaiveran with her questions. #173/181/186/187 the exchange with Archangel continues, thinks Archangel's questions were fake scum-hunting, thinks the suggestion that 'ey's an alt is disingenous, based on 'eir pre-game posts, is not able to read for tone, asks to be killed to resolve the Archangel/Vanta argument in case they are both town, unvotes Archangel #201 Originally Posted by Vanta Black I hope we haven't scared Kaiveran off. #217/220 to me, explains read on Archangel, looked up previous game where she did something similar #223 Originally Posted by Vanta Black I'm gonna stand by my policy non-vote of Kaiveran toDay but if they don't get back here toot sweet I could get behind Kaiveran in some future phase. N1 #20 Originally Posted by Vanta Black What do you think of guiri and Kaiveran? You've had some pretty good insights which is why I'm asking.

- I note Vanta was in the lead with 3 votes when they unvoted Archangel
- accusing Archangel of questioning Kaiveran without caring about the response doesn't quite add up to accusing her of distancing from her scum teammate, however they expresses a desire to vote Kaiveran twice, once for something they cannot remember, and once for being absent. I've no idea what the question to Mahaloth was implying other than getting a second opinion, or why TexCat quoted it.

[guiri]

Originally Posted by Archangel

1. Vanta was the NK and some other role took out PCM. (Unlikely though because I believe the breadcrumb.)

2. PCM was the NK and someone else shot at Vanta, regardless of his power. (More likely than 1.)

3. Someone targeted Kaiveran with a non-scum kill, and Vanta died because of it.

If someone targeted Kaiveran with a non-scum kill such as a vig, would Vanta die if Kaiveran was town?

I misread the role at the start, thinking that any actions targeted at Vanta would go to the person they were hiding behind instead, it's since been clarified. I can try again for you...

Vanta could choose to hide behind a player at Night
While hiding, Vanta cannot be targeted directly by any action
If the player hidden behind is scum, Vanta dies
If the player hidden behind is not scum, but a target of any action, Vanta will also become a target for the same action

So, since Vanta turned up dead, there are three possibilities:
1. They did not use their power, and were a target for a scum or other NK
2. They used their power, and hid behind a scum player, and auto-died
3. They user their power, hid behind a non-scum player, who was targeted for any NK, and so Vanta also died - this would have to be PCM. In this scenario, there was only one successful NK, there might have been another that was blocked, protected or otherwise failed
(4. maybe a 4th option is a redirector or strongman kill which is successful against any kind of protection)

So, if that's any clearer, to your scenarios:
1. Vanta would have been protected against any NK by hiding, so either they did not use their power, or were not the scum NK target
2. Someone else could not have shot at Vanta, for the same reason, unless they did not use their power
3. In this case Kaiveran would have died too, and we'd have had three deaths. If Kaiveran had been protected, 'ey and Vanta both would have survived

I asked the question because you seem to believe that this breadcrumb is true, yet are not voting Kaiveran, so I'm confused as to how you can both believe Vanta hid behind Kaiveran and Kaiveran is not worthy of your vote?

[Archangel]

Originally Posted by guiri

I misread the role at the start, thinking that any actions targeted at Vanta would go to the person they were hiding behind instead, it's since been clarified. I can try again for you...

Vanta could choose to hide behind a player at Night
While hiding, Vanta cannot be targeted directly by any action
If the player hidden behind is scum, Vanta dies
If the player hidden behind is not scum, but a target of any action, Vanta will also become a target for the same action

So, since Vanta turned up dead, there are three possibilities:
1. They did not use their power, and were a target for a scum or other NK
2. They used their power, and hid behind a scum player, and auto-died
3. They user their power, hid behind a non-scum player, who was targeted for any NK, and so Vanta also died - this would have to be PCM. In this scenario, there was only one successful NK, there might have been another that was blocked, protected or otherwise failed
(4. maybe a 4th option is a redirector or strongman kill which is successful against any kind of protection)

So, if that's any clearer, to your scenarios:
1. Vanta would have been protected against any NK by hiding, so either they did not use their power, or were not the scum NK target
2. Someone else could not have shot at Vanta, for the same reason, unless they did not use their power
3. In this case Kaiveran would have died too, and we'd have had three deaths. If Kaiveran had been protected, 'ey and Vanta both would have survived

I asked the question because you seem to believe that this breadcrumb is true, yet are not voting Kaiveran, so I'm confused as to how you can both believe Vanta hid behind Kaiveran and Kaiveran is not worthy of your vote?

I do not understand Vanta's role and I don't understand your explanation of it and I'm so stressed I don't have time to figure it out. I will try to recircle but things are a hot mess IRL right now.

I absolutely believe the breadcrumb is true, and I don't think Kaiveran is scum. So I need to know if there are any other possibilities, and I'm sorry, you're trying to spell it out for me but I don't get it.

Does everyone agree with Guiri that if Vanta hid behind Kaiveran, Kaiveran MUST be scum?

Please still answer my question above.

[guiri]

Silverjan

D1 #10 Hi, fluff #82 to Vanta, agrees that Archangel's questioning of Kaiveran is strange, comments on own catch-up style #83 to me, re: forces, agrees that there are likely more forces than scum to worry about #84 to Kaiveran, friendly advice on how to read Meeko and their insights, has a niggle about Gnarly for his vote and not returning after the multiple forces was pointed out #85 questions TexCat's vote on Mahaloth, asks whether she agrees that scum would unforced claim VT or that he's telling the truth (Colby's dilemma) #136 votes gnarly, partially based on lack of response, suspects he's not Town #137 fluff re: unlucky #7 to Archangel, comments on empty promises as a scum-tell #138 to Archangel, asks what she's seen in Kaiveran's posts #139 comments on Meeko's response to her #84, still wants Archangel to explain how Kaiveran's answer will help #140 found Archangel's explanation, asks for her thoughts on Gnarly #155 to Archangel, agrees Gnarly is not a high-poster, found his vote on me didn't make sense, wish she was better at persuading people #156 to TexCat, her #85 was just a joke

- I found her #155 to be quite townie and honest, like she really really had this gut read on Gnarly and was struggling to get others to understand it and join her
- generally she comes across quite well, interacts with multiple other players, questions, votes, sticks to her convictions

N1 #17 understand why Gnarly was suspicious of me mentioning 3Ps #34 to PCM, interpreted Gnarly's limitation in a different way D2 #33 to me, who asked who her #137 was directed at, was just a comment on AA's post #129 where she referenced the "catching-up, on page ##" scum-tell #43 to Meeko, who is pinged by Mahaloth question about other claims, points out that Meeko had also claimed VT #44/46 to me, hopes I'm not scum, jokes about my omitting myself from my readslists #138 to Lightfoot, who notes she's quite quiet, was quiet in last game also, will catch up, does not agree with giving the new guy a pass #139 to Archangel, asks why she thinks Vanta could not have hidden behind PCM #141 to Bashorian, who asked why there were only two deaths, suggests that both killers could have targeted PCM with Vanta behind, or Vanta was both a target and hid behind scum #142 to Mordenkainen, who asks why 3Ps must be killers and cannot be non-hostile, suggests 3P must be anti-town based on wincon

- not getting such as strong town feel from her toDay, no vote yet, heavy focus on NKA but little actual scum-hunting or solving beyond that, bring MORE when you get back

[Archangel]

@guiri my reading of the role is different from yours. (That doesn't make you scum or 3P, I'm trying to explain for you why I believe the breadcrumb but don't want to vote Kai.)

I am rereading what you're saying and get it now, but I disagree with you.

I believe this:

1. Vanta breadcrumbed that he was going to hide behind Kaiveran.

2. So he did.

3. Vanta is dead because a non-scum vig (doesn't matter if the 3P has an NK or if it's a town vig) targeted Kai, and Vanta died from that vig.

I am not willing to vote Kai unless EW confirms that I am reading the rules incorrectly. If I am wrong about this I will absolutely vote Kai but I just don't think he's scum. If he were scum he'd know he's caught by now, and he's not acting caught.

[Archangel]

Originally Posted by Vote Counting Robot

Kaiveran (4): guiri (4), Meeko (23), Bashorian Clement (93), TexCat (158)
Texcat (1): Mahaloth (58)[122], Mahaloth (122)[165], LightFoot (124), Archangel (161)[170]
Bashorian Clement (1): Mahaloth (165)
Mahaloth (1): Archangel (145)[161], TexCat (158)[158], Archangel (170)
Meeko (1): Kaiveran (156)
Guiri (0): Kaiveran (36)[140]

If you want, you can paste this as well:

Voting History:
post #4: guiri voted Kaiveran
post #4: guiri illegally voted Bashorian Clement
post #23: Meeko voted Kaiveran
post #36: Kaiveran voted Guiri
post #58: Mahaloth voted Texcat
post #93: Bashorian Clement voted Kaiveran
post #122: Mahaloth unvoted Texcat
post #122: Mahaloth voted Texcat
post #124: LightFoot voted Texcat
post #140: Kaiveran unvoted Guiri
post #145: Archangel voted Mahaloth
post #156: Kaiveran voted Meeko
post #158: TexCat voted Mahaloth
post #158: TexCat unvoted Mahaloth
post #158: TexCat voted Kaiveran
post #161: Archangel unvoted Mahaloth
post #161: Archangel voted Texcat
post #165: Mahaloth unvoted Texcat
post #165: Mahaloth voted Bashorian Clement
post #170: Archangel unvoted Texcat
post #170: Archangel voted Mahaloth
And here's a direct link to this page:
compute vote count for Day X

[guiri]

Originally Posted by Archangel

3. Vanta is dead because a non-scum vig (doesn't matter if the 3P has an NK or if it's a town vig) targeted Kai, and Vanta died from that vig.

So why is Kai still alive?

[guiri]

Originally Posted by Archangel

If he were scum he'd know he's caught by now, and he's not acting caught.

I would not underestimate Kaiveran's ability to avoid acting caught.

[Archangel]

@guiri so you see where I'm coming from:

This is copied directly from your post:

"If the player hidden behind is not scum, but a target of any action, Vanta will also become a target for the same action."

Look at just this and see if you understand me now. I agree with this statement you made and I believe it means that if Kai is town and was the victim of a non-scum NK, Vanta would die.

[Archangel]

Originally Posted by guiri

So why is Kai still alive?

Okay. I finally understand you. The also is the rub. Let me go reread the reveal again and see if the also is in there or if you are putting it there.

(I'm sorry, you guys have no idea what I'm dealing with IRL right now and yet my brain just wants to play Mafia.)

[guiri]

Originally Posted by Archangel

@guiri so you see where I'm coming from:

This is copied directly from your post:

"If the player hidden behind is not scum, but a target of any action, Vanta will also become a target for the same action."

Look at just this and see if you understand me now. I agree with this statement you made and I believe it means that if Kai is town and was the victim of a non-scum NK, Vanta would die.

Yes, I understand you, and I agree, but then BOTH Kaiveran and Vanta should be dead, not just Vanta: "Vanta will also become a target for the same action"

[Archangel]

"Will affect both you and them."

Guiri is right. I'm sorry I misread this so many times.

[guiri]

Originally Posted by guiri

Yes, I understand you, and I agree, but then BOTH Kaiveran and Vanta should be dead, not just Vanta: "Vanta will also become a target for the same action"

Sorry, you were quoting me... the reveal says "both you and them": "but any power targeting the player you are hiding behind will affect both you and them."

[guiri]

Originally Posted by Archangel

"Will affect both you and them."

Guiri is right. I'm sorry I misread this so many times.

I hope we're right. There are still four worlds where Kaiveran is not scum:

1. Vanta simply chose not to use his power
2. Vanta actually hid behind PCM instead of Kaiveran
3. There's a strongman or otherwise unstoppable kill that over-powered Vanta's hiding power
4. Vanta was blocked, and killed independently

[Archangel]

Originally Posted by guiri

I hope we're right. There are still four worlds where Kaiveran is not scum:

1. Vanta simply chose not to use his power
2. Vanta actually hid behind PCM instead of Kaiveran
3. There's a strongman or otherwise unstoppable kill that over-powered Vanta's hiding power
4. Vanta was blocked, and killed independently

1. I don't think this happened.
2. Vanta does change his mind so that's possible.
3. Possible but a little gastardly?
4. Possible but why?

I also don't underestimate Kai's ability to act but I have been fighting because I really, truly believe 'e's town here. However, 'e was literally snuggling me above (but would 'e do that if 'e were scum? Maybe. I would do it as scum.)

[Mordenkainen]

Afternoon folks. Three hours to go and I've only just caught up with today's activity.

Archangel.

Originally Posted by Archangel

I do not understand Vanta's role and I don't understand your explanation of it and I'm so stressed I don't have time to figure it out. I will try to recircle but things are a hot mess IRL right now.

I absolutely believe the breadcrumb is true, and I don't think Kaiveran is scum. So I need to know if there are any other possibilities, and I'm sorry, you're trying to spell it out for me but I don't get it.

Does everyone agree with Guiri that if Vanta hid behind Kaiveran, Kaiveran MUST be scum?

Please still answer my question above.

Let's start by quoting the PM again, since having it to hand may make things easier.

Originally Posted by Eristic Widgeon

Welcome to the game, you are Town Hider.
Each Night, you may choose a player to hide behind. If they are scum, you will die. Otherwise, no powers targeting you will affect you that Night, but any power targeting the player you are hiding behind will affect both you and them.
You win when all anti-Town forces have been eliminated.

Assuming Vanta used their power last Night, the first thing checked for was "Is Vanta hiding behind a Mafiate? If yes, Vanta is killed.

If Vanta used their power and was not killed, then Vanta was protected from all powers targeting Vanta. (As has been pointed out, there is the theoretical possibility of an unblockable power targeting Vanta, but at this point I consider that unlikely and will not address it further.) So a protection or kill aimed at Vanta would not work.

It seems likely that Vanta chose to hide behind either Kaiveren or PCM.

If Vanta chose to hide behind PCM then, since we know PCM was targeted for death and not protected, Vanta would have been killed by the same power aimed at PCM.

If Vanta chose to hide behind Kaiveren, then either Vanta would be killed if Kaiveren was Mafia, or would have been subject to any power targeting Kaiveren - not that we have any evidence of such powers. If anyone does know of a power targeting Kaiveren, would they consider sharing their evidence please?

In any case, Vanta left a hint strongly suggesting they used their power to hide behind Kaiveren, and Vanta died. This leads me to



@Kaiveren, you've stirred the mud in interesting ways. Come back and play again? hope you're in a better headspace.

[Mordenkainen]

Aaaand, I see guiri managed to explain it better.

FWIW I agree with guiri in post 184 about the hypotheses suggesting how Vanta could die and Kai still be town. It's just that I find the crumb interpretation to be persuasive.

[guiri]

Originally Posted by Archangel

I also don't underestimate Kai's ability to act but I have been fighting because I really, truly believe 'e's town here. However, 'e was literally snuggling me above (but would 'e do that if 'e were scum? Maybe. I would do it as scum.)

I mean I've accused 'em of multiple things:
- asking everyone for their early d1 reads and doing no follow-up whatsoever, no interest in the actual answers, even when asked directly
- promising walls, ISOs, thoughts and coming back with nothing
- no vote D1
- saying 'ey were around near EoD and then denying it
- telegraphing his vote on me, piggy-backing off a dead townie's dying words, then pretending to not remember whether I voted Gnarly or not
- not giving any scum motivation for my vote switch in his t!Gnarly/t!TexCat scenario
- appeal to emotion to Meeko, complaining that 'ey cannot defend against such a bizarro vote
- unvoting me without giving any reason, unless the comment that scum are lurking exonerated me
- Vanta's breadcrumb

Now, 'ey are a very skilled player, poking, prodding, solving, good analysis, and I can totally see where you're coming from, and hate the apparent apathy around us. This is a very easy wagon for scum to hop on, almost a smoking gun, and plausible deniability if 'ey actually flip Town.

@Kaiveran, anything to claim?

[Colby11]

Originally Posted by Archangel

@guiri my reading of the role is different from yours. (That doesn't make you scum or 3P, I'm trying to explain for you why I believe the breadcrumb but don't want to vote Kai.)

I am rereading what you're saying and get it now, but I disagree with you.

I believe this:

1. Vanta breadcrumbed that he was going to hide behind Kaiveran.

2. So he did.

3. Vanta is dead because a non-scum vig (doesn't matter if the 3P has an NK or if it's a town vig) targeted Kai, and Vanta died from that vig.

I am not willing to vote Kai unless EW confirms that I am reading the rules incorrectly. If I am wrong about this I will absolutely vote Kai but I just don't think he's scum. If he were scum he'd know he's caught by now, and he's not acting caught.

Rereading the role, if Vanta hid behind Kai and Kai was scum, yes she would die. Guess I missed this breadcrumb?

[Archangel]

Originally Posted by guiri

I mean I've accused 'em of multiple things:
- asking everyone for their early d1 reads and doing no follow-up whatsoever, no interest in the actual answers, even when asked directly
- promising walls, ISOs, thoughts and coming back with nothing
- no vote D1
- saying 'ey were around near EoD and then denying it
- telegraphing his vote on me, piggy-backing off a dead townie's dying words, then pretending to not remember whether I voted Gnarly or not
- not giving any scum motivation for my vote switch in his t!Gnarly/t!TexCat scenario
- appeal to emotion to Meeko, complaining that 'ey cannot defend against such a bizarro vote
- unvoting me without giving any reason, unless the comment that scum are lurking exonerated me
- Vanta's breadcrumb

Now, 'ey are a very skilled player, poking, prodding, solving, good analysis, and I can totally see where you're coming from, and hate the apparent apathy around us. This is a very easy wagon for scum to hop on, almost a smoking gun, and plausible deniability if 'ey actually flip Town.

@Kaiveran, anything to claim?

I feel you completely on the apathy around us. You're stuck with me who completely lacks apathy but has an overactive brain that floods its engine and freezes its starter. (Or something. I don't understand cars.)

[Archangel]

Originally Posted by Colby11

Rereading the role, if Vanta hid behind Kai and Kai was scum, yes she would die. Guess I missed this breadcrumb?

That's not what I was questioning.

And I missed the breadcrumb too initially. If you want to look at it ISO Guiri, he pointed it out, but it's definitely there and real.

[Meeko]

Originally Posted by Kaiveran

Is "phase" not established here as generic-speak for Day or Night of the game?

This was more or less my exact point.

You would use the word " phase " only if you suffered from P.I.S.

If you did not suffer from P.I.S. you would use ANY A N Y other word.

This achieves a multiple effect, if you are trying to craft a breadcrumb.

A crumb is what P.I.S. aspires to be


----

I see you voted for me. Noted.

I'm not looking to move my vote on you. Again, it is not, and never was personal.

I personally want to welcome you to stay with our group. This game has been a weird one for me. But not to far removed from my style, if I am honest. I look forward to non-mafia conversations with you.

[Meeko]

Originally Posted by Archangel

That's not what I was questioning.

And I missed the breadcrumb too initially. If you want to look at it ISO Guiri, he pointed it out, but it's definitely there and real.

I'd "" consider the source here "" .

Not sure that I would multi-vote right now, even if I could.

[Silverjan]

Originally Posted by guiri

Silverjan
- I found her #155 to be quite townie and honest, like she really really had this gut read on Gnarly and was struggling to get others to understand it and join her
- generally she comes across quite well, interacts with multiple other players, questions, votes, sticks to her convictions

- not getting such as strong town feel from her toDay, no vote yet, heavy focus on NKA but little actual scum-hunting or solving beyond that, bring MORE when you get back

Sorry about toDay, I will get onto things aagain. At the moment I think BC could be either scum or 3P just because he can't see other reasons why there is a good possibility that there is a 3P.



I'm going with my gut again

It's not even a possibility, it's a probability.

[guiri]

Last one toDay, Lightfoot

D1 #64/65 Hi, fluff, was in hospital #66 to Mahaloth, VT are always in the dark D1, nothing unusual about that #67 asks me to clarify my statement about Mahaloth #68 to Vanta, confirms she was in Vegas, mechanics talk re: vote bolding #69 asks Mahaloth if he had a solid reason to claim this time #73/80 to Colby & Vanta, more mechanics talk re: vote bolding #74 to Mahaloth, thanks him for answering her #69 #114 votes Vanta for gut, suspects Gnarly stumbled upon something, promises to take a closer look for the context #116 to me, clarifies she meant Colby's #72, where he accused Vanta of blending in plus the joke vote on Meeko #149 to SilverJan, numbering miscommunication

- Lightfoot disappeared for the rest of the Day and Night, no reason given until D2#49 where her car "just" blew up
- no follow up on the Vanta vote, or the context behind Colby's #72
- not much else to go on here, posts in brief bursts of activity, commenting as she catches up/spots something shiny

D2 #49 Car just blew up, will try to focus #50 to TexCat, who suggests Vanta hid behind scum and PCM was the scum kill, clarifies that Vanta could also have hidden behind PCM, she would have hidden behind a town read, as a form of investigation #51 to Meeko, asks to clarify their "super town power" comment #52 to me, concurs that there are likely multiple enemies #53 to Meeko, asks to explain their vote on Kaiveran, is also suspicious but wants to compare reasoning #54 to SilverJan, also thought Meeko had claimed VT #61 to Meeko, re their response to #53, does not think the town roles are severely handicapped, explains her read on Kaiveran, felt good out of the gate but there was no follow-up, does not want to give Kaiveran a pass for being new but wants to see how 'ey interact #62 asks if AA and Silverjan are a little muted/low-profile, hegdes with a "it could just be me" #81 to Archange, who says Vanta could not have hidden behind PCM, advises to re-read the reveal #115 to Bashorian, who questions the lack of a 3rd kill and why no-one else is curious, an additional killer might have held off, or been blocked #116 to me, cautions against reading too much into a turn of phrase (Vanta's "get behind"), was once NKed for using the word track, does not think Vanta would hide behind one of their scumreads #121 to Bashorian, who still asks why no-one is curious about a missing kill, thinks two were enough, suggests he share if he knows of a thwarted attempt #124 To Texcat, did not read Vanta as town-reading Kaiveran, votes TexCat, would also vote Bashorian #128 to TexCat, who asks why Lightfoot voted her, says that she's wrong about Vanta and would like to resolve the D1 tie

- More bursts, feel natural, some fighting tone, desire to solve
- not sure about the vote reasoning on TexCat (town can be wrong too, even strong-headedly wrong) but she certainly believes Vanta did not town-read Kaiveran, does not believe the breadcrumb is a crumb, and therefore did not hide behind 'em, maybe she's the voice of reason we were waiting for, but Occam's razor and all that, meh, doubting myself sucks.

[guiri]

Originally Posted by Meeko

I'd "" consider the source here "" .

Not sure that I would multi-vote right now, even if I could.

The source being Vanta's post or me calling it a crumb?

[Silverjan]

Originally Posted by guiri

I mean I've accused 'em of multiple things:
- asking everyone for their early d1 reads and doing no follow-up whatsoever, no interest in the actual answers, even when asked directly
- promising walls, ISOs, thoughts and coming back with nothing
- no vote D1
- saying 'ey were around near EoD and then denying it
- telegraphing his vote on me, piggy-backing off a dead townie's dying words, then pretending to not remember whether I voted Gnarly or not
- not giving any scum motivation for my vote switch in his t!Gnarly/t!TexCat scenario
- appeal to emotion to Meeko, complaining that 'ey cannot defend against such a bizarro vote
- unvoting me without giving any reason, unless the comment that scum are lurking exonerated me
- Vanta's breadcrumb

Now, 'ey are a very skilled player, poking, prodding, solving, good analysis, and I can totally see where you're coming from, and hate the apparent apathy around us. This is a very easy wagon for scum to hop on, almost a smoking gun, and plausible deniability if 'ey actually flip Town.

@Kaiveran, anything to claim?

And brownie points if he flips scum.

Sorry, I won't do these odd pronouns, they make the hairs on the back of my neck stand up.

[guiri]

Going out for a while, will be back before EoD.

[Silverjan]

Originally Posted by Archangel

I feel you completely on the apathy around us. You're stuck with me who completely lacks apathy but has an overactive brain that floods its engine and freezes its starter. (Or something. I don't understand cars.)

I'm feeling a bit apathetic, sorry, it's only D2, I tend to get more involved on D3 where I can look at more interactions and why people voted why they did. I like guiri's post about individual players because that helps me look at things more closely. I suppose he could do that as scum too but it still helps me. I also felt the same way that guiri did about gnarly, wrong but there it is.

I also see your read on Texcat and I do understand why you think she's Town, just a slight quirk but there none the less.

[Eristic Widgeon]

Originally Posted by Archangel

Yes (but my understanding of Vanta's role is fuzzy so correct me if I'm wrong).
NK equals official scum NK here.

1. Vanta was the NK and some other role took out PCM. (Unlikely though because I believe the breadcrumb.)

2. PCM was the NK and someone else shot at Vanta, regardless of his power. (More likely than 1.)

3. Someone targeted Kaiveran with a non-scum kill, and Vanta died because of it.

If someone targeted Kaiveran with a non-scum kill such as a vig, would Vanta die if Kaiveran was town?

Yes. If they were both town they would both have died if Kaiveran had been targeted by any killing power of any alignment (unless he was also targeted by a protective power, in which case both would live). The only scenario in which Kaiveran would survive while Vanta died is if he had some passive protective power like a bulletproof vest. That protection wouldn’t extend to Vanta, but any active protection power, including a self-protection, would have.